Prince in the clutch

[wisportswriter]

My feelings are purely anecdotal, so I welcome the stat-heads to find some numbers in response to my claim. And if I'm wrong, I'll gladly stuff it.

 

I remember a game around midseason that Prince won with a walk-off single.

Is that just about the only clutch hit he's had all season? It feels like every time he's come up in a crucial situation - late innings, runners on, etc. - he has failed miserably. And I've been feeling this way for a couple weeks now.

 

Am I wrong?

[mkm13]

We needed 1 run, not 2. He should have bunted in that situation.

[wallus]

We needed 1 run, not 2. He should have bunted in that situation.

When is the last time Prince bunted? I know this should be in blue.

[wisconsinfan47]

Per billjamesonline.com, Prince is hitting .346 / .500 / .829 with 7 homer runs in 52 so-called "clutch" AB's.

 

This is how Bill James defines it: A hitter's performance in the most critical situations. Like obscenity, a "clutch situation" may be best defined as "I know it when I see it." The determinants here are the things that make you feel it in your gut, including the lateness of the inning, the closeness of the score, the number of outs and men on base, the stage of the season, and the importance of the opponent.

[Gobias Industries]

His first homerun was pretty clutch.

[mkm13]

I am not sure why that matters. If you are a majore league baseball player you should be able to bunt.

[mothershipconnection]

I am not sure why that matters. If you are a majore league baseball player you should be able to bunt.

 

If you have an OPS in the mid-.8's and run like Prince, the times in your career when it will be beneficial to bunt are roughly equal to the number of size 32 pants Prince owns.

[logan82]

mothershipconnection wrote:

If you have an OPS in the mid-.8's and run like Prince, the times in your career when it will be beneficial to bunt are roughly equal to the number of size 32 pants Prince owns.

Maybe he has pants left from grade school.

[mkm13]

Well if the most 1 dimensional player in baseball history can't bunt then they should have brought someone in that can.

[AdvantageSchneider]

Juan Pierre isn't on our roster. Who are you referring too?

[mkm13]

We have 40 guys on our roster now, I am sure someone knows how to sacrifice bunt.

[kramnoj]

http://www.baseball-refer...gi?n1=fieldpr01&year=2008 is a link to B-Ref's splits page for Prince for 2008. Some people are a fan of WPA, and in high leverage situations, Prince has a 1.200 OPS in 76 such ABs. I don't know which stats you will consider clutch, but just glancing through all the situations, it looks like his OBP is higher in quite a few cases that people call clutch. Some people think a slugger should extend their strike zone in such situations and not be happy to take a walk (Frank Thomas was criticized for being too comfortable with a walk). Just a guess, but I imagine that someone who thinks Prince hasn't peformed well is probably not happy with him walking in those situations.

[DougJones43]

Well, per Fangraph's rating for clutch, Prince hasn't been good, but he hasn't really been horrible either. He does have a negative rating, of minus .09. This means he's cost the Brewers about one-tenth of a win during clutch situations -- he's done slightly more harm than good. His contributions in these situations have, overall, left the Brewers less likely to win these games then when he came to bat.

Alex Rodriguez has been far and away the worst clutch player in baseball this season, with a rating of negative 2.70. Jose Lopez and Lance Berkman have been the best.

For reference, here is how Fangraphs defines their clutch rating:
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.

[wisportswriter]

I would be perfectly fine with a walk. It seems like he's only making outs, and bad ones (pop-ups, double plays).

 

And, as always with stats, you can pick the one that best suits your argument, and I am not without. (Thanks for the link, kramnoj.)

 

With 2 outs and RISP, the exact kind of situation I've been thinking of, Prince is batting a putrid .180.

 

Though I must admit his OBP (.414) and OPS (.814) in those situations are decent. I guess that means he's hardly ever getting a hit, but when he does, he makes it count, and he's taking some walks along the way.

[kramnoj]

That 2 out RISP line is kinda crazy. It's only 50 ABs, so we're in that small sample size alert. He has 9 hits in those 50 ABs, 16 BBs (8 Intentional) and 4 HBP! Those 9 hits include 6 XBH, including one of his triples. So, yeah, it doesn't look like he's up there to just get a hit. He waits for his pitch to hit and gets good wood on the ones that don't become outs.

[rluzinski]

I think we all just have unrealistic expectations when Prince is up in big situations. It's hard not to. Also, he has to contend with not having the platoon advantage in many of those situations and not getting anything to hit. I'm glad to see he's still remained patient and is usually willing to take the walk.

 

I think the numbers show that he's been at least middle of the road in clutch situations.

[brewtank34]

The plain and simple fact is that Prince has no confidence in himself nor do I. This shows every time he comes to the plate in a pressure situation. I basically leave the room for a minute when he's up because I know he's either going to ground out to first or second or K....with an occassional fly out. The only times (lately, as I am aware that he has 80+ RBI's) he gets a hit is when there's no one on base. Braun is clearly our best player and unfortunately, Prince is going to get more money than Braun next year...pathetic.

 

As I am not a fan of Fans booing there own players, please don't boo Prince....that said, if there's anyone on this team that deserves to be boo'd...it's Prince WITHOUT A DOUBT!

[windiv07]

I think we all just have unrealistic expectations when Prince is up in big situations...

Not me. But clearly Ned does, otherwise he would not have a middle of the road hitter batting cleanup.

[wisportswriter]

The plain and simple fact is that Prince has no confidence in himself nor do I.

That was a decent post. I think you should very much be confident in yourself, brewtank. [/grammarpolice] http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[rluzinski]

I love how it was only 5 months ago that I was trying to explain that expecting 50 HRs from Prince this year was unrealistic. Now, Prince is obviously a mediocre batter that should bat 6th or lower. It's all so simple.

[jason21nl]

I don't think anyone was thinking he'd hit another 50 this year but he hasn't hit one in 3 weeks and for a guy that swings for the downs on every ab you would think he'd walk into a bomb. He is at 28 hrs, that's good, but a far cry from last year.

[TooLiveBrew]

Rluz, clearly with all your stats & numbers & statistics, you're just out to get people.

 

 

Alex Rodriguez has been far and away the worst clutch player in baseball this season, with a rating of negative 2.70

 

This tells you all you should need to know about 'clutch' -- it can be fans searching for a reason to feel justified in being upset. The best hitter in the game is the 'worst' clutch player... when one reduces the PA sample to almost as small a sample as possible, strange results occur. If someone wants to bat Jose Lopez over A-Rod with the game on the line, I hope my team plays that team as much as possible.

[DougJones43]

Alex Rodriguez has been far and away the worst clutch player in baseball this season, with a rating of negative 2.70

 

This tells you all you should need to know about 'clutch' -- it can be fans searching for a reason to feel justified in being upset. The best hitter in the game is the 'worst' clutch player... when one reduces the PA sample to almost as small a sample as possible, strange results occur.

I was just posting the numbers. I agree that clutch ratings don't make for good predictive tools -- that is, it's probably not a true "skill" that can be continuously repeated.

 

However, like it or not, it does offer factual information on what that player has done in that season. Maybe it doesn't mean much about his real ability, but A-Rod has been horrible in clutch situations this year, it's a fact. Prince has been slightly below average as well. Last year, A-Rod was great in the clutch, and Prince was slightly above average.

[AdvantageSchneider]

Well if the most 1 dimensional player in baseball history can't bunt then they should have brought someone in that can.

We have 40 guys on our roster now, I am sure someone knows how to sacrifice bunt.

Prince hits for power and gets on base. That's two dimensions in the baseball game as far as I can tell.

[Ennder]

Fielder has a 1.200 OPS in high leverage situations so no he hasn't been bad in clutch situations.

 

ARod has a .776 OPS this year but last year he had a 1.146 which should show just how random these things are.