Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

Brewers 2013 payroll budget


slappzilla

I've seen this talked about in many different threads pertaining to the Brewers signing FA's, trading guys (Ramirez), and what they'll do to fill holes next year. I think it deserves it's own thread.

 

What sort of payroll do you think the Brewers will put out next year?

 

This year, the Brewers put out the most ever ($96M), but Melvin stated early and often that the team went way over budget.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/01/melvin-brewers-way-over-projected-budget.html

 

I've seen some people saying that the Brewers can spend up to $115M next year. I'm sorry but I find that ridiculous. The Brewers are still a small market team. You have to remember that the Milwaukee Brewers are a business. Mark Attanasio did not become a millionaire by buying businesses and losing money on them. He is not going to jack up the payroll and take an overall loss in profits. Those of you who think he should throw his own money in, I'm sorry but that's just not how it works.

 

I'm thinking next years budget will start out around $80M, with a $10M kitty set aside to be used to fill holes and what not, meaning it would max out at $90M. None of us know what the Brewers can spend in order to still make a profit (or at the least not take a loss), but we do know what the Brewers have spent in years past, what they spent this year, and what Melvin has said regarding what they spent this year. The Brewers have had a nice spike in attendance in the last couple of years, but it's hard to know if the attendance spike will remain going forward after this years stinker of a performance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Recommended Posts

This year, the Brewers put out the most ever ($96M), but Melvin stated early and often that the team went way over budget.

 

You have to remember that the Milwaukee Brewers are a business.

 

I have the Brewers payroll this year at $101.5M (starting payroll, not counting the min. salaries for callups, but does include Braun signing bonus and Aoki posting fee).

 

It would seem that if the Brewers were in the ballpark of breaking even this year (?) and they are budgeting the same turnstile count for next year, they could increase because of the new TV money. But I wouldn't be budgeting the same turnstile count, if I was in charge.

 

Also figure that the most important thing to Mark A. is that he cashflows to pay debt/salaries. He doesn't have to turn a "profit" annually. The "profit" will be made when he sells the team.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the $96M number I got was from seasons start. I don't know where I heard it. Cot's says $98,150,833 and that's Major League contracts plus pro-rated signing bonuses.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=71

 

Either way we can agree that this year the Brewers shelled out around $100M for payroll, most ever by the team.

 

Like I said, he wants to at least break even. In the land of owning a business, just breaking even or even taking a slight loss is a win if it's laid out right.

 

As far as how profitable the Brewers were/are/will be this year, I don't know how to find that info.

 

I know the Angels were able to jack up their payroll big time due to their new TV deal. I don't know how much, if at all, the Brewers can jack theirs up.

 

There's a lot we don't know as far as what the Brewers have or don't have to spend, so all we can go off of really is previous years spending and what Melvin says. I don't think next years payroll will be as high as this year going off of what Melvin said. We shall see though.

 

Either way, the Brewers are still a small market team. They're not going to be throwing around $120+ anytime soon unless someone knows of sum newly found cash flow that I don't.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You're not the first person on these boards to mention new TV money so I'm sure there's something to it.

 

Not only the Angels, but the Dodgers as well I think signed a new big TV deal that opened up the flood gates to get them more money. I mean the Angels went seeds to the wall in spending this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There was some savings that the Greinke trade should bring from the original payroll, probably $4-$5M or so.

 

I don't agree that the Brewers are still small market, though. You won't be seeing a $120 payroll, true, but this years payroll was still top 10 in MLB, and I'm pretty sure they are still up there for attendance. That's not small market to me, unless you're solely referring to location relative to other "large" markets.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In regards to the new TV deal, I thought I read on here or somewhere that it's going to give each team approx. $10-15 million more.

 

I thought that new deal was regional and specific to the Brewers, not having anything to do with any other team.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In regards to the new TV deal, I thought I read on here or somewhere that it's going to give each team approx. $10-15 million more.

 

I thought that new deal was regional and specific to the Brewers, not having anything to do with any other team.

 

 

It's MLB's national TV deals with TBS, FOX, and ESPN. The deals currently expire at the end of 2013, and the new deal is supposedly going to double from what it is now. From what I've read, this is one of the reason's some of the large contracts we see are being signed, the teams are already counting on the boost in revenue.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't agree that the Brewers are still small market, though. You won't be seeing a $120 payroll, true, but this years payroll was still top 10 in MLB, and I'm pretty sure they are still up there for attendance. That's not small market to me, unless you're solely referring to location relative to other "large" markets.
Like someone else just said, I see them as a $85-$90M team. I'm pretty sure that falls into the small market category. Maybe it's mid-market, I don't know how they differentiate.

 

To me, market size is measured on revenue brought in. The Yankees can afford what they afford because of the $$$ they bring in. The Brewers are a $85-$90M team because of the revenue they bring in. If they had (or do for you still beleivers) made the playoffs this year, and put together back to back years of postseason appearances, I think they would have brought in enough steady revenue to jump to a $100-$110M team.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There was some savings that the Greinke trade should bring from the original payroll, probably $4-$5M or so.

 

I don't agree that the Brewers are still small market, though. You won't be seeing a $120 payroll, true, but this years payroll was still top 10 in MLB, and I'm pretty sure they are still up there for attendance. That's not small market to me, unless you're solely referring to location relative to other "large" markets.

Sure we were top 10 but that was going over budget. We cannot keep up a top half of the league payroll year after year. No matter what we get for a local TV contract, the bigger markets will always get a bigger one. Attendance is nice but most of the money comes in form other sources.

Fan is short for fanatic.

I blame Wang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As far as how profitable the Brewers were/are/will be this year, I don't know how to find that info.

 

The Brewers are a limited partnership, so that information is not public.

 

There are revenue increases which go to every team (national TV deals, MLB Network, internet, etc) and local deals (FSWisconsin). I believe the league-wide revenues are going up, which is why a bunch of teams are already spending it (see the Reds) and we're seeing a lot of salary inflation, particularly for high-end players. There was an article in a NY paper saying the Brewers old TV deal was $10MM/year, and the new TV deal (which I believe starts next season) will triple that. That's where the "extra $20MM" people talk about get that number.

 

That doesn't mean payroll will go up by $20MM+, but that revenues may (if rumors are correct) go up by $20MM+. To relate that to other teams, the Angels new TV deal will pay them somewhere around $150MM, so they'll get around $120MM more than the Brewers just in the local TV deal.

 

Now, that has to be offset by attendance. With the way the team is playing this season, it's likely that people will stop showing up to games. For this season, the ticket is already sold, so that revenue is banked, but things like concessions and parking will take a hit. Will this be 5%? 10%? That's what the Brewers are probably scrambling to figure out. Meanwhile, they were overbudget while projecting for a playoff run, which means that if attendance drops off significantly, they will probably lose a lot of money. That's where things like trading Grienke and even giving away Izturis for nothing can help the team at least break even.

 

Projecting forward, the team will have the additional revenues mentioned above, but they will probably adjust the expected attendance down fairly significantly. The owners will have to decide if they want to risk losing money again (assuming they will probably lose some this season) in an effort to attempt to bump attendance with some free agent signings, or if they're willing to risk losing some fans with a lower payroll on young players. In the past, Attanasio said he would spend more if he could get a special player (CC, Prince), but only for that special player. I'd guess that was the case with Greinke, so I don't think it's safe to assume that all the money Attanasio was willing to pay Greinke will be used if Greinke's not in the picture.

 

So really, no one outside of the Brewers / MLB know the exact numbers, so it's anyone's guess what they need to do to breakeven. I'd guess that unless they see some really big initial season ticket sales, they're going to go into next season with a conservative budget. With the new TV money, I'd put that in the lower end of the $80-90MM range. Note that with the inflation we're seeing, this will buy significantly less than it would've several years ago.

 

According to Cot's, the Brewers are obligated to pay $52.433MM to seven players (Weeks, Braun, Ramirez, Hart, Gallardo, Aoki, Lucroy) plus Wolf's buyout. They have eight arby eligible players (Morgan, Loe, Veras, Gomez, Parra, Axford, Narveson, Estrada). Of those, I'd guess only Axford, Estrada and probably Gomez are "locks" to return. That would mean that we'd have around $60MM going to ten players, leaving $20-30MM for the remaining 15.

 

If we assume somewhere around $500,000 for pre-arby guys, Fiers, Segura, Gamel, Maldonado and one other SP are probably "locks," (5 players, $2.5MM) and Green, Ransom, Schafer and a couple bullpen arms are likely. That's about ten pre-arby guys at around $5MM, which leaves around five positions to fill with $15-25MM. Signing a relatively inexpensive veteran SP (Marcum) and a couple of setup guys will probably eat up most of our "free money" going into 2013.

 

So, without making any offseason trades, we'd probably see the team we're currently watching with some/all of Loe, Veras, Parra and K-Rod replaced with some other FA relievers and maybe someone like Schafer/Gindl on the roster instead of Morgan.

 

Edit: couldn't count to five :-)

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Do we really know if we were over budget, though?

 

We do have revenue from that new TV deal coming, and I thought I remember the Brewers were profitable to the tune of $17M or so last year.

 

I love Mark A, but I don't think he's entirely transparent sometimes. Not accusing him of hiding anything, just saying that he seems to want us to believe every year that it's going to take a miracle for him to just break even, and I doubt that's the case. Mark A is a smart man and a businessman, and I doubt he bought the Brewers with the intention of ever operating at a loss.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just my opinion, but I think they got pretty close to the assumed breakeven point with the payroll this season. That would be with them assuming a certain attendance (and parking, concessions, etc which go along with it). With the season spiraling downward, it's likely that attendance (and everything going along with it) will falter, leading us to take a loss. The "offsets" of losing part of Greinke & Izturis' salaries may or may not make the team profitable. I doubt it's anything catastrophic either way.

 

However, if my assumption is correct, and $100MM or so is around breakeven with 3MM attendance at 2012 prices, what will be breakeven with less than 3MM attendance, but with the increased media deals? We can only guess, and from that guess we would then have to figure that the owners' group will probably not set the payroll at or near breakeven to start next season.

 

Again, this is just a guess, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a starting payroll in the $80-90MM range for 2013, even with the new media money.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

Link to comment
Share on other sites

However, if my assumption is correct, and $100MM or so is around breakeven with 3MM attendance at 2012 prices, what will be breakeven with less than 3MM attendance, but with the increased media deals? We can only guess, and from that guess we would then have to figure that the owners' group will probably not set the payroll at or near breakeven to start next season.

 

Again, this is just a guess, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a starting payroll in the $80-90MM range for 2013, even with the new media money.

 

I think you summarized everything well in this post and above, but I think the starting payroll for 2013 will be in the $95M range (which will be closer to breakeven than an $80M payroll, imo). Unless they really want to go with a whole set of young pitchers in 2013 with the thought of going for it in 2014. Then they can have a small payroll in 2013 and ramp it up the following year.

 

I just think Mark A. will want to sign at least 1 free agent ($10-$13M) pitcher (not counting Marcum).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Unless they really want to go with a whole set of young pitchers in 2013 with the thought of going for it in 2014. Then they can have a small payroll in 2013 and ramp it up the following year.

 

I just think Mark A. will want to sign at least 1 free agent ($10-$13M) pitcher (not counting Marcum).

That's what I think will happen going off of Melvin's interview today. Use 2013 to see what you got and setup 2014.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think you summarized everything well in this post and above, but I think the starting payroll for 2013 will be in the $95M range (which will be closer to breakeven than an $80M payroll, imo).

 

I think mid-90's is the likely target for next years payroll. Unfortunately, I think any added payroll savings from the rotation will probably be spent on over-paying for FA relievers.

 

With the added revenue from the Brewers local contract and the huge windfall from that will be shared by all teams and with attendance close to 3M the owners will see a very nice operating profit. I can't imagine ticket sales falling that much for a mid 90's payroll to kill a nice take home for the ownership group,

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've seen this talked about in many different threads pertaining to the Brewers signing FA's, trading guys (Ramirez), and what they'll do to fill holes next year. I think it deserves it's own thread.

 

What sort of payroll do you think the Brewers will put out next year?

 

This year, the Brewers put out the most ever ($96M), but Melvin stated early and often that the team went way over budget.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/01/melvin-brewers-way-over-projected-budget.html

 

I've seen some people saying that the Brewers can spend up to $115M next year. I'm sorry but I find that ridiculous. The Brewers are still a small market team. You have to remember that the Milwaukee Brewers are a business. Mark Attanasio did not become a millionaire by buying businesses and losing money on them. He is not going to jack up the payroll and take an overall loss in profits. Those of you who think he should throw his own money in, I'm sorry but that's just not how it works.

 

I'm thinking next years budget will start out around $80M, with a $10M kitty set aside to be used to fill holes and what not, meaning it would max out at $90M. None of us know what the Brewers can spend in order to still make a profit (or at the least not take a loss), but we do know what the Brewers have spent in years past, what they spent this year, and what Melvin has said regarding what they spent this year. The Brewers have had a nice spike in attendance in the last couple of years, but it's hard to know if the attendance spike will remain going forward after this years stinker of a performance.

 

 

 

Yeah, every year the Brewers are going to spend 80 million because we're a small market team...and for how many years now have we consistently surpassed that by a significant margin?

 

Now when we've finally got our new TV deal coming in and Mark A and Melvin have made a point of saying they going to try and compete next year, we're going to slash the payroll.

 

Thanks for the lesson in how Mark A made his money, but the Brewers ARE making money, and they've got over 20 million in additional revenue coming in next year.

 

I don't care about their market size as much as I care about their revenue, and those suggesting the Brewers are capable of spending 110-115 aren't suggesting he operate at a loss. Forbers certainly doesn't have them in danger of losing money, and every YEAR we hear how they went out and they "might," end up in the red only to see them raise it again the next year.

 

I predicted 3-4 years ago almost to the dollar what I thought the Brewers would be able to spend. I thought 90-95-100 in the previous three years and now I believe they'll hit 110 or so.

 

I don't know how wise it'll be to do so and I think trading the likes of Aram, Hart, and others, especially coming off big years to save money and get prospects is the way to go if they come up short in their big to sign Greinke(which I still think is plausible given many of the big market teams will be out of the discussion this year).

 

 

Anyway, this 80 million dollar nonsense should be just cut and pasted year after year. We're making more money from ticket sales, merchandizing, TV, radio, the last two with new contracts kicking in next year. But they'll cut 20 million dollars.

 

And if they were so outrageously over budget, Mark A an Melvin wouldn't have been talking about buying players leading up to the ASB before they hit the skids that put the final nail in the coffin.

But I'll bet the Brewers end up with a payroll closer to 115 than to 80 million next year. AGain, despite it not being what I think is best for the team.

 

 

 

Oh, and one more thing, can we PLEASE stop with the nonsense about Mark A running businesses? How many times does the guy have to talk about how he doesn't view this the same as his other business ventures before we again compare two things that aren't even remotely comparable?

Icbj86c-"I'm not that enamored with Aaron Donald either."
Link to comment
Share on other sites

In regards to the new TV deal, I thought I read on here or somewhere that it's going to give each team approx. $10-15 million more.

 

I thought that new deal was regional and specific to the Brewers, not having anything to do with any other team.

 

 

It's MLB's national TV deals with TBS, FOX, and ESPN. The deals currently expire at the end of 2013, and the new deal is supposedly going to double from what it is now. From what I've read, this is one of the reason's some of the large contracts we see are being signed, the teams are already counting on the boost in revenue.

 

 

 

That may be true nationally, but the Brewers own FSN North deal is up and will add over 20 million dollars in revenue.

 

If that happens, I think it's unlikely we see the Brewers spending less than 100 million in the next few years.

 

But I've argued about this with people every year for the last several years hearing the small market stuff and people buying the whole spiel about how they could end up in the red though never finding themselves there.

Icbj86c-"I'm not that enamored with Aaron Donald either."
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund
The Brewer Fanatic Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premiere Brewers community on the internet. Included with caretaking is ad-free browsing of Brewer Fanatic.

×
×
  • Create New...