Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

Would you rather have Jean Segura or Mike Olt?


Recommended Posts

Although I don't think it's as far away as some of the other responses, I'd still take Segura. Let's be clear here though, an RBI producing third-baseman without glove issues trumps a 15-HR second-baseman. It's really about if Segura's defense holds up at SS.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Although I don't think it's as far away as some of the other responses, I'd still take Segura. Let's be clear here though, an RBI producing third-baseman without glove issues trumps a 15-HR second-baseman. It's really about if Segura's defense holds up at SS.

 

We're not talking about another Ryan Zimmerman here (regarding Olt) who was driving in 110 runs in the big leagues at 21. Of course there are exceptions but Olt could still end up being another Josh Fields vs. Segura who held his own against big league pitching at 22.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

JB12 why are you continually bagging on Olt's age?

 

It's not his fault Texas had no immediate need for his services and has advanced 1 level at a time, he's performed at every level and could have been on a similar career path through the minors as Braun if management had deemed it so.

 

Olt's career arc to MLB is entirely beyond his control, he has produced consistently since he was drafted which is all anyone could ask. Considering the state of 3B in the organization I would trade Ramirez for Olt straight up tomorrow if I could. He's one of the best hitting prospects in Minor League Baseball for a reason... In fact, we didn't have a single hitter anywhere in the system with Olt's combination of tools and approach last season, he'd be our best position prospect by a wide gulf and at a position of need.

 

I understand relative age when discussing prospects, but in this case Olt could have easily started 2012 in AAA and played in the Majors if Texas had any kind of need and he wouldn't suffered an injury, which would have been the exact same path Braun took to the majors.... .5 in A+, .5 in AA to finish first full season, AAA to start the following year, and then the call to the bigs.

 

I feel you've serioulsy overplayed in the age factor in this case. I like Segura quite a bit if he sticks at SS and regardless I like the Greinke trade, but as far as Olt is concerned there's literally nothing not to like from tools and statistical perspective. My only concern about him would be his hit tool, but there are very few players who I will project to hit for high average, I always worry about that tool the most.

 

Here's BA's scouting report prior to the 2012 season when he was ranked as the #3 prospect in an incredibly loaded farm system.

 

The fourth and final of Texas' selections in the 2010 draft, Olt was the lone college pick and viewed as a safer choice. Signed for $717,300, he quickly established himself as the best prospect of the bunch and might have won the high Class A Carolina League MVP award in his first full pro season if he hadn't broken his collarbone in a home-plate collision in June. He made up for lost time by hitting .349/.433/.764 in the Arizona Fall League. Olt offers the increasingly rare combination of plus righthanded power and plus defense at third base. Sturdy and physically mature, he has great bat speed and impressive raw thunder. He projects as an average hitter, as he occasionally gets out front and struggles with quality offspeed stuff. Despite his selective approach, he strikes out often, Initially a shortstop in college at Connecticut, Olt plays the hot corner with fluid actions and soft hands. He has a plus arm and while he's a below-average runner, he has good first-step quickness and average range. With Adrian Beltre signed through at least 2015, Olt likely won't break in with Texas at third base. He has the athleticism to play left field, and he could be used as a blue-chip trade commodity. He'll spend 2012 at Frisco, where he should post massive power numbers.

"You can discover more about a person in an hour of play than in a year of conversation."

- Plato

"Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something."

- Plato

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think olt is very good and if Texas isn't as high on him as they were and they made him available I would be stoked if the brewers went for him, but the debate is would you trade segura for olt. The crew NEEDS segura more then olt. I wouldn't be surprised if Texas looks at olt as expendable since they have beltre until 2015 with a vesting option for 2016 and they have joey Gallo who is essentially olt with more power.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

What are you talking about TheCrew87? In 2011, he hit .267/.387/.504 in A ball. That doesn't say "major league ready but stuck" to me. Last year his power numbers went up in AA in the hitter friendly Texas League, then he got a call up. My point is he's not Ryan Zimmerman or Ryan Braun. Very few guys are. That's not to say he won't be a solid major league third baseman, but he could also be a Josh Fields who was ranked as high as #45 on BA's prospect list in 2007.

 

I was responding to a post that suggested you never deal a top SS prospect for a power 3B. My argument was in special cases you do, but Olt doesn't fit that description and I used the age thing to show how special Zimmerman and Braun truly were.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What are you talking about TheCrew87? In 2011, he hit .267/.387/.504 in A ball.

 

I made my case pretty clearly, he doesn't have to be a HOF player to be valuable, you are completely ignoring the fact that he got injured and wasn't able to finish the season but went on to rake in the AFL. Then instead of playing all year last year in the minors TX called him up to be a bench bat. There are quite a few things to like about TX as an organization, but calling up a top propsect to ride the pine isn't one of them.

 

His complete stats for the record:

 

21 A- 69 games .293/.390/.464/.864 (Spokane)

22 A+ 69 games .267/.387/.504/.891 (Myrtle Beach)

23 AA 95 games .288/.398/.579/.977 (Frisco, TX)

 

As I pointed out previously he would have had a very realistic shot to be the Carolina League MVP in 2011 or a bump up to AA without the injury highlighted in the BA scouting report.

 

You see a player who hit .267 and then raked in a hitter friendly league who's too old for his leagues.

 

I see an ascending patient hitter who has produced solidly at every level but is still trying to figure out an agressive hitting approach, hence his low BA. Cripes, he put up an .891 OPS with that .267 BA you pointed out. As I said I'm slightly concerned about his hit tool as I am with most prospects, however I stand by my assertion that he'd be the best prospect in the system if we traded for him tomorrow regardless of the fact he's 23 and Segura is 22.

 

This argument is as much about opportunity as it is about tools and production. Dismissing the fact that TX has no need for him at 3B at all but continually point out he'll 24 in AAA is a distortion of the truth and his career path thus far.

 

I'm not saying everyone should want Olt over Segura or trade Ramirez for Olt like I would, these discussions are always too subjective for absolutes. In fact I would rather have Segura, Hellweg, and Pena than Olt. Now if TX would have kicked in Perez then that's a different discussion which I'd have to think about for a while, but my initial impression is that I'd still lean towards the LAA package. The pitching is the kicker... as much I as like another LHP with Perez' stuff (or any LHP with Perez' stuff in the system), I'm about 35/65 on him ever controlling his stuff enough to be a top of the rotation MLB pitcher, I actually think Hellweg has a better chance of being that guy.

 

However I would ask that you don't misrepresent what a player is or isn't by cherry picking specific stats which make your point while ignoring the rest of the total picture. He's been an incredibly productive offensive player at every stop while being a plus defender in the field. What prospect of that level did we have anywhere between A-AAA before the Greinke trade? With Segura in the majors, where's another 4 tool player with the kind of all around production package that Olt represents?

 

You picked college draftees which were taken in the top 5 overall picks who's teams had an immediate need at the position when said players were drafted and compared them to Mike who's in a completely dissimilar situation. How is that a remotely fair/valid comparison when Mike had no clear path to MLB like the other guys? In truth Olt has exceeded expectations and he did make his MLB debut at 23, even though it wasn't much of an opportunity.

"You can discover more about a person in an hour of play than in a year of conversation."

- Plato

"Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something."

- Plato

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What are you talking about TheCrew87? In 2011, he hit .267/.387/.504 in A ball. That doesn't say "major league ready but stuck" to me. Last year his power numbers went up in AA in the hitter friendly Texas League, then he got a call up. My point is he's not Ryan Zimmerman or Ryan Braun. Very few guys are. That's not to say he won't be a solid major league third baseman, but he could also be a Josh Fields who was ranked as high as #45 on BA's prospect list in 2007.

 

I was responding to a post that suggested you never deal a top SS prospect for a power 3B. My argument was in special cases you do, but Olt doesn't fit that description and I used the age thing to show how special Zimmerman and Braun truly were.

 

Who exactly was comparing Olt to Ryan Braun or Ryan Zimmerman? I said "an RBI-producing 3B'man without glove issues", not "one of the great bats in the modern-era". See the difference?

 

I'm thinking more a Mike Lowell type; who still trumps an average-fielding low-power second-baseman that MAY steal 30 one day. I like Segura and I would have selected him as well based on team need, but if he can't stay at short his value takes a tremendous hit. Now you have a worse-fielding Howie Kendrick on your hands...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Brewer Fanatic Contributor

I'm with those who prefer to have Segura, based solely on the fact that he fills the SS position.

 

I just find it amusing how quickly things can change. I would bet, if Olt had been available to the Brewers, Greinke would have been traded to Texas at the time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've seen enough overhyped corner IF who tore up the minors for Texas and turned into pumpkins at the MLB level to be pretty skeptical about Olt.

 

I think he might become a better player than Segura from a WAR perspective, but finding any above-replacement SS is pretty difficult, even if average-to-below-average. I'm not convinced Segura will necessarily be that great, even though he clearly has some upside, but as long as he can be a passable starting SS for the foreseeable future I am more than happy with that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would be stoked if the brewers went for him, but the debate is would you trade segura for olt. The crew NEEDS segura more then olt.

 

True, and Texas doesn't need a SS other than to potentially flip him to AZ. A question this thread should ask "Is Segura equal in value to Andrelton Simmons," as that is the player that Arizona apparently wanted in an Upton trade. I like Segura, but he's probably a step below Simmons, both offensively and defensively.

 

I would bet, if Olt had been available to the Brewers, Greinke would have been traded to Texas at the time.

 

That probably hinged on the rumored Ramirez-to-the-Dodgers trade happening. If the Angels deal was on the table, and Melvin didn't think he could move Ramirez, I doubt he would've traded for a near-MLB-ready 3B over an MLB-ready SS. As TheCrew07 mentioned, had Texas thrown in a SP, that could've changed things, but if they weren't willing to trade Olt-for-Greinke, they certainly wouldn't trade Olt+SP for Greinke.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Brewer Fanatic Contributor
Last year his power numbers went up in AA in the hitter friendly Texas League, then he got a call up.

Texas League had a .715 OPS in 2012. The other AA leagues, the Eastern League and Southern League, had OPS of .723 and .709. So that puts the Texas League right about average for hitters. Perhaps Olt had a hitter friendly park, but to say the Texas League was favorable to hitters isn't really true anymore - at least last year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's interesting that Texas would be looking to trade for a top SS prospect when they already have Andrus and Profar.

 

They are trying to get Justin Upton from the Diamondbacks and will then flip that SS prospect for Upton.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm with those who prefer to have Segura, based solely on the fact that he fills the SS position.

 

I just find it amusing how quickly things can change. I would bet, if Olt had been available to the Brewers, Greinke would have been traded to Texas at the time.

 

I don't think I agree with that.

 

I think Melvin wanted pitching or a shortstop.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Brewer Fanatic Contributor

Cubsdie, the Brewers did want pitching and a shortstop, they wouldn't have traded Greinke strictly for Olt, but Olt was a player they tried to get.

 

Texas wouldn't let go of Martin Perez or Olt at the time, they offered two other pitchers and a lesser shortstop, which caused the Angels to change their offer from Segura and a pitcher to Segura and both pitchers, which sealed the deal.

 

I would love to know, if Texas had offered Olt and two arms, which way would the Brewers have gone? I do think Melvin would have made the deal with Texas, because Olt was more highly thought of at the time, and there were questions as to whether Segura would stick at SS going forward.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Brewer Fanatic Contributor

I believe Texas refused to include Olt in a trade for a rental player like Greinke.

 

http://texas.rangers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120727&content_id=35667648&vkey=news_tex&c_id=tex

 

At mid-season, Olt was sitting at #11 on BA's list of prospects. He was at #38 for John Sickels. Segura was at #43 and #78. Olt was more highly thought of by most scouts and so forth.

 

Who would I take of the two. Probably Olt.

 

Olt looked bad in his 33 ABs once he got to the majors. But it's 33 ABs. I'm not going crucify the guy for struggling after being bumped up from AA and getting irregular playing time. The simple fact is the guy can mash. He's a 30 HR potential guy. They don't grow on trees. He's been successful on every level. He's got a good glove. He led the league in OPS last year at AA. His strikeouts worry me, but they are not exorbitant.

 

Segura, obviously, fills an organizational hole at SS. That's great. And he held his own in the majors. But I just see the upside on Olt as being higher. I see him more as becoming a good player, while Olt can be a great player.

 

I will say that we can't just look at this as Olt vs Segura. We have to remember we got Hellweg and Pena. Both could be contributors at a major league level some day.

 

Also, at this time, I don't think there's really any wrong answer in Olt vs Segura. The players are very different. Some people value different things, whether it be need or power or whatever. Both guys look like they have good futures.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund
The Brewer Fanatic Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premiere Brewers community on the internet. Included with caretaking is ad-free browsing of Brewer Fanatic.

×
×
  • Create New...