Ryan Howard...

[razzzorsharp]

According to this article, the Phils are thinking about releasing him (very doubtful). How much would the Phils have to pay of the remaining salary for the Brewers to make a trade? Not worth it at all? I would have to think that the Brewers would pay no more than 10 million for all three for them to make a move, even that I don't know

 

85 million for this year and the next two by the way.

[razzzorsharp]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24634806/report-phillies-have-considered-releasing-ryan-howard-after-the-season

[SRB]

2012-2014

 

Ryan Howard (1026 PA)

.236/.306/.418

.311 wOBA

-22.4 UZR

-0.7 fWAR

 

Lyle Overbay (823 PA)

.242/.306/.382

.302 wOBA

-13.6 UZR

-0.4 fWAR

 

Note: this is not praise for Lyle Overbay.

[DHonks]

I was thinking he same thing. I love his power potential. If the Phillies would eat $15-19m each in 2015 and 16, this deal would make sense. Howard, at $6-10m sounds fair. I'd take Howard, Ramirez, and Reynolds manning 1b/3b for the rest of the season and next year

[TooLiveBrew]

One of Howard's troubling splits this season (& there are many) is how he's fared against pitchers as classified in the three categories of Power, Avg. Power/Finesse, & Finesse:

 

[pre]v. Power: .171/.289/.214/.503

v. avg. P/F: .200/.278/.292/.570

v. Finesse: .260/.328/.497/.826[/pre]

 

So basically, he's only been hitting soft-tossers so far this season (& he posted similar struggles against non-finesse pitchers last season, too). That wouldn't really bode well for potential postseason at-bats.

 

I'm not sure what injuries he's been battling, but the decline against power pitchers points to a possible loss of bat speed. I think I'd stay away from Howard at this point.

[fondybrewfan]

Holy Christ I had no idea that someone was actually keeping stats on something like that; or how you could even do it. That being said it wouldn't surprise me if most MLB players had similar splits with the highest performance against finesse pitchers. Maybe not as drastic as Howards though.

 

In regards to the question I really don't think it would be worth it to bring in Howard. He would perhaps be only a marginal upgrade over what we have now and even if Philly eats a ton of salary I just don't see the upside. He is clearly on the down swing of his career.

[TooLiveBrew]

Holy Christ I had no idea that someone was actually keeping stats on something like that; or how you could even do it. That being said it wouldn't surprise me if most MLB players had similar splits with the highest performance against finesse pitchers. Maybe not as drastic as Howards though.

 

In regards to the question I really don't think it would be worth it to bring in Howard. He would perhaps be only a marginal upgrade over what we have now and even if Philly eats a ton of salary I just don't see the upside. He is clearly on the down swing of his career.

Here's a look at Braun, who actually has fared worse against Finesse pitchers, & much better against Power & Avg. types. Gomez hasn't done well against Power, but well against everyone else. Luc has been similar to Gomez.

 

I'd have to guess that the assumption that most players don't fare well against Power is correct.

[JohnBriggs12]

Phillies are actually considering eating $60 million and just cutting him after this season. He just appears done to me.

[TURBO]

Howard is running on fumes and name recognition alone.

 

Please, please, no Ryan Howard occupying a Brewer uniform.

[TURBO]

Latest on Howard:

 

CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reports that the Phillies are "working hard to find a suitor for Ryan Howard."

 

Howard has hit just .236/.306/.418 over the last three seasons and is still owed $70 million, but Heyman says the Phillies "would be willing to eat much or most" of the contract. Heyman adds that a trade of Howard would "presumably" be to an American League team looking for a designated hitter. Two general managers told Heyman that they believe Howard could be worth around $5 million per year in such a role. Howard has a no-trade clause that allows him to block a deal to 20 teams.

 

Source: CBSSports.com Jul 24 - 6:09 PM

[Warning Track Power]

Oh man...I see a Howard/Reynolds platoon coming. It makes too much "sense" not to happen.

[PeaveyFury]

Everyone except the Phils knew that the Howard deal was going to be horrendous almost right away.

 

There's probably value to the Brewers as an Overbay replacement, but only if Philly eats almost the entire contract.

[Warning Track Power]

He is owed 2 years $60 million with a team option of $23 million or a $10 million buyout...the absolute only way I take him is if the Phillies pay $60-$65 million of the $70 million he is owed over the next 2 seasons. Howard on a 2 year $7 million obligation would be ok provided we don't have to trade anything other than a never will be prospect...

[StearnsFTW]

The Phillies handed out some incredibly bad contracts recently.

[Bnowell4evr]

Howard has actually been worse than Overbay against RHP but I wouldn't bet on that going forward. I would take a flyer on him just for his LH power if the price was right (read: barely anything). The way I view it is if if he stinks just play Reynolds the majority of time and if he turns it around you got the strong side of a 1st base platoon locked up cheap for the next couple of years.

 

This is of course assuming that he's about to get Bill Hall'ed and the Phillies are willing to get any salary relief they can.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I just can't see this as a viable option. Even if we "ONLY" have to pay Howard 4 or 5 million a year for the next 3 years, he's a negative value player now. He's horrible defensively, can't hit left-handed pitchers, and is just not good, period. Why give up ANYTHING of value, plus ANY cash for a guy of his skilset? Are people just enamored with the name? He has absolutely nothing left in the tank.

[SRB]

One of Howard's troubling splits this season (& there are many) is how he's fared against pitchers as classified in the three categories of Power, Avg. Power/Finesse, & Finesse:

 

[pre]v. Power: .171/.289/.214/.503

v. avg. P/F: .200/.278/.292/.570

v. Finesse: .260/.328/.497/.826[/pre]

 

So basically, he's only been hitting soft-tossers so far this season (& he posted similar struggles against non-finesse pitchers last season, too). That wouldn't really bode well for potential postseason at-bats.

 

I'm not sure what injuries he's been battling, but the decline against power pitchers points to a possible loss of bat speed. I think I'd stay away from Howard at this point.

 

With a split that big, in theory you could use him intelligently in a platoon and just sit him against power pitchers. Evidently when he has the bat speed to square up on the ball he's still moderately dangerous. That said, there is approximately zero chance Roenicke would use him intelligently in such a manner.

[DHonks]

sometimes the aging sluggers have a revival. Remember Big Papi being declared as washed up at least twice? not saying he'll be great. Bad defensively, but he's better than Prince or Francisco at first base. Also, I thought he was the same vs lefties as righties

[igor67]

There are revivals, but Howard has been sinking downward for 3 years, and this year he is hitting replacement level at best. So bad he has erased his notorious platoon split.

[DuWayne Steurer]

sometimes the aging sluggers have a revival. Remember Big Papi being declared as washed up at least twice? not saying he'll be great. Bad defensively, but he's better than Prince or Francisco at first base. Also, I thought he was the same vs lefties as righties

 

How often is 'sometimes'?

 

And how big of a chance do we want to take? How much of that contract are you willing to take on?

 

3 million per year? 5 million?

 

The last 5 years, including this year, Howard's WAR has been...

 

1.2

1.2

-1.2

0.8

-.4

 

He hasn't been close to 'good' for 5 years. The chances of him having a revival or resurgence are pretty slim I'd guess.

[JohnBriggs12]

Paying even a small portion of his remaining deal, say $2.5 million per year, might preclude the Brewers from making a run at better options. You could get Howard's current production from AAA guys. I don't even see him as an upgrade over Overbay for this season.

 

Of course an argument could be made for picking him up and this is what it is:

 

His slide really hasn't been gradual. It occurred suddenly between 2011 and 2012 when he missed significant time due to injury. He also missed significant time last year but rebounded a bit. This year he's been healthy and he was back playing virtually every day for the first time in 3 years. But now at 34, he might be a lot more productive playing 4 days a week and with Reynolds around, that's what he could do with the Brewers. It is amazing that he's got 60 RBI.

 

I'm starting to waiver on my first thought. At a very cheap price it might be worth a try.