Joel Sherman - Sign Scherzer

[Jim Goulart]

The best teams for 10 hot MLB free agents

 

The NY Post columnist and MLB Network insider the Brewers should sign Max Scherzer, and they "stealthily pursued" David Price last July.

[SRB]

Woah, that would be interesting.

 

I feel like that's the type of move I probably wouldn't make if I were running things, but as a fandom-passenger I would be ecstatic if Mark A made that happen. They could backload a longterm deal and hope for the best.

[jerichoholicninja]

Just look at Verlander. Scherzer is probably a year or two away from being an above average to average pitcher. The long post season runs have taken their toll on Tigers pitchers.

[igor67]

That would pretty much floor everyone. You'd have to think we'd turn around and trade one of our starters afterward under that scenario. Which might be quite the coup, since by removing a top starter you drive up the value of your remaining starters. That said it is almost certainly a bad long term idea.

[trwi7]

I mean, it's probably manageable payroll wise if you trade one of Gallardo, Garza or Lohse and replace them with either Fiers or Nelson and completely go cheap in the later years of the deal when Gallardo, Lohse, Ramirez and probably Gomez and Lucroy are gone. But we aren't going to be and shouldn't be the team taking a risk on an 7-9 year contract worth $175-200 million for a 30 year old pitcher.

[3and2Fastball]

love to see this happen. Would absolutely love it. C'mon Brewers, get it done!

[brewmann04]

THE NYPOST GUYS DONT GET EXCITED

[nate82]

I mean, it's probably manageable payroll wise if you trade one of Gallardo, Garza or Lohse and replace them with either Fiers or Nelson and completely go cheap in the later years of the deal when Gallardo, Lohse, Ramirez and probably Gomez and Lucroy are gone. But we aren't going to be and shouldn't be the team taking a risk on an 7-9 year contract worth $175-200 million for a 30 year old pitcher.

 

Not that I want to see this happen but more than likely there would be an opt out clause after the 3rd or 4th year for Scherzer as I believe Boras is his agent. So if he stays healthy he will opt out of his contract at that time and that is where the Brewers should really just part ways with him.

 

I highly doubt Scherzer will sign with the Brewers but I wouldn't put it past MA.

[RockCoCougars]

He turned down a $150 million from the Tigers. If the Brewers top that, someone needs to have their head examined, as that would have the potential to be a franchise crippling move. Pitching isn't the problem anyway.

[JohnBriggs12]

They'd have to deal both Gallardo and Lohse this year and likely Garza next year. But a true ace is certainly worth 2 number 3's and Fiers, Nelson, and Peralta are controllable for next 3-5 years.

[paul253]

Tim Dierkes of MLB trade rumors predicts James Shields will get $95 million over 5 years. Even though he's older than Scherzer I'd rather the Brewers make a deal like that than to do what it would take to get Scherzer. I'm not saying I want them to do it but if it is one or the other I'd prefer Shields. He'll cost a lot less and won' take nearly as many years.

[TURBO]

Hasn't Shields fast ball taken a dip recently?

 

I think a guy like Shields screams breakdown...

[fondybrewfan]

As much as I would love the Brewers to sign Shields or Max this year because clearly it would help us win in 2015; both those deals would probably be disasters long term. Its probably irrelevant because the Brewers will never be able to afford either.

[Matt Breen]

You're talking at least 7-years and $175 million for Scherzer. He already turned down 6-years/$144M. An 8th year may be necessary as well. I'd love to have the guy, but $25 million (maybe more) a year for one guy, for that long of a span, is pretty brutal.

 

One important consideration is that there no way the Brewers develop a #1 type pitcher like Scherzer for a long, long time. There's no one in the system that remotely projects as a top pitcher. That means we have to sign one as a FA, or trade for one (which would cost Lucroy or Gomez; or a bunch of our best prospects), or try and draft one (not likely in our position this year).

 

As noted, if you want to fit $25M in our current pay structure you need to deal Lohse and Gallardo, then move Nelson into the rotation with Fiers, Peralta, Garza and Sherzer. Of course, the team might be willing to expand payroll, but that seems unlikely.

 

It seems like a crazy move, but you never know in this game.

[DoubleSwitch]

Shields has actually gained velocity on his fastball. He averaged 92.5 on his 4 seam last year which was the highest of his career. Scherzer on the other hand has dropped from 94.2 in 2012 to 92.8 last year.

 

My biggest concern with Shields would be how hard the was worked by the Royals last year. Also I think the rotation is pretty adequate for 2015 and the Brewers would be better served spreading their money around to aquire depth in the field and the pen.

[JohnBriggs12]

Shields has surrendered an average of 27 HR per year pitching in Tropicana and Royals Stadium. Odds are that would go up in Miller Park. He might fit the payroll better but he turns 33 in December. No thanks.

[pacopete4]

The Brewers would be better served flipping Gomez/Lohse or Gallardo to Seattle for Paxton, T. Walker and maybe that James Jones guy they had in CF and trying to stack up their rotation a bit. If they would do it...

[DoubleSwitch]

Taijuan Walker is most likely untouchable. Good prospects and young big leaguers just don't get flipped for vets as easily as they used to. There's a pretty solid collection of mid-rotation guys available in free agency so it doesn't seem like a good time to shop a starter. I don't see any good reason to blow up this team right now. They are good enough to contend next year, and if they aren't than Lohse and Gallardo will probably fetch about the same return in July that they would now. If you aren't going to shop the guys with one year left then there's definitely not a reason to trade our two guys who could actually fetch an elite prospect.

[3and2Fastball]

Sign Scherzer and keep him for "go for it" windows in 2015 & 2016 and then trade him (and his contract)

[Roderick]

Sign Scherzer and keep him for "go for it" windows in 2015 & 2016 and then trade him (and his contract)

 

Now I could see some owner do this, where they knowingly are going to blow up the team in two years. But MA has shown no signs that he is willing to do a total blowup.

 

So excuse me if you are joking (I didn't see blue). That would be poor planning to assume that you would even be able to do that when the time comes. Yes he may pitch great and have value above contract two years later and/or baseball inflation keeps skyrocketing, but to cherrypick the younger years and assume someone to take on the rest of the contract without eating so much of it that you are ruining your own budget? Underperformance and/or injuries have to be expected at some point of the contract life.

[jerichoholicninja]

Sign Scherzer and keep him for "go for it" windows in 2015 & 2016 and then trade him (and his contract)

 

32/33 year old pitchers making $20MM+ per season for 4 or so years don't trade easily.

[StearnsFTW]

Good God no.

[lcbj68c]

If I read one more time the phrase, "go for it" or "all in", I may scream.

[SRB]

On the plus side, Scherzer would definitely solve the problematic fact that our pitching staff is going to be eminently mediocre 2-3 seasons from now.

[trwi7]

If I read one more time the phrase, "go for it" or "all in", I may scream.

 

So you're saying you're going to go all in on screaming?