Aoki

[jerichoholicninja]

Does he make sense for the Brewers?

 

He's got zero power, his slugging has dropped every year he's been in MLB, but his OBP last year would have been 3rd on the team and it's been within .007 every year of his career. He's been a better hitter than Parra throughout his career in OBP and OPS+. I would guess Parra is better defensively but I don't think he could be that much better. Aoki actually hits lefties better than righties (.776 OPS vs. 726) which would be a huge upgrade over Parra against lefties (.587 OPS).

 

Personally, I would prefer Parra is traded and that money used on Aoki.

[pacopete4]

The problem seemed to be that Aoki could not play CF well enough to be our 4th OF.

 

Could trade Parra, to get Allen Craig. Sign Aoki and a guy like Bonafacio. Now you're covered all over the field.

[Eye Black]

Seems like the obvious concern is that Aoki's offensive ability is so speed dependent. His last season with the Brewers he was second in MLB with 40 infield hits (of his 140 total hits), and had an additional 16 times he reached base on infield errors. I would be somewhat concerned that if (when) he loses a step he would face a significant decline in offensive value.

[jerichoholicninja]

Seems like the obvious concern is that Aoki's offensive ability is so speed dependent. His last season with the Brewers he was second in MLB with 40 infield hits (of his 140 total hits), and had an additional 16 times he reached base on infield errors. I would be somewhat concerned that if (when) he loses a step he would face a significant decline in offensive value.

 

I don't think that's a huge deal since he draws a fair bit of walks. His OBP is not boosted by a super high batting average. While .287 is probably on the higher side for today's game it's not ridiculously high and his single season averages have been .288, .286, .285. I don't think you can get any more consistent than that.

 

I have no idea what kind of averages can be expected for speedy players on infield hits (in 2014 all MLB hitters batted .080 on balls hit in the infield but that includes your Ryan Howards and Molinas as well as Billy Hamiltons and Mike Trouts) but Carlos Gomez has a .149 batting average on balls hit in the infield vs. .131 for Aoki so it doesn't seem too out of line.

 

I'll totally buy the argument that he isn't a CF but he wouldn't be a total disaster for a few innings or a game to rest Gomez.

[MNBrew]

I like this idea a lot. Aoki brings an element at the plate that the Brewers tend to be thin in -- and one which was painfully lacking in the 11-25 season-ending swoon -- which would help bring some better balance to the offense. Parra has more power, but it's not great power.... and while he's not a bad hitter, he's also nothing special, so how much does he really add? The drop-off defensively isn't much. Aoki tends to bring a fairly smart approach to the plate. And Logan Schafer (or whomever makes the roster over him) would just need to be CF-capable (which we know Schafer is) if Aoki's deemed a bad glove to put in CF.

 

Aoki will make far more this off-season than he made initially, but I see projections for him in the $5M/yr. range. I'd gladly give him that for two years. It would still be about $1.5M less than Parra is projected to make via arbitration.

 

While I still like the Allen Craig idea (payroll limitations notwithstanding), a move like signing Aoki & trading Parra would also make me more comfortable with using a Rogers/Jiminez/Clark backup at 1B (or 3B for the 1st two) b/c Aoki's just a better overall hitter than Parra.

[RockCoCougars]

If Aoki could be had for 10 million over two years, I'd welcome him back. If it came down to it, I'd rather have him than Parra, but that ship has sailed. I doubt they would sign another backup OF to such a deal.

[pacopete4]

I just feel they value Parra way too much. Yes he's a great glove but his bat is just meh. Trade him and find a cheaper option, like Aoki/Bonifacio combo, that allows your team to be even better.

[JohnBriggs12]

I like Aoki's bat over Parra's also. Aoki fights off good pitches as well as anybody in the game. He kind of abandoned his pull stroke in KC last year apparently but with RF an inviting target in Miller Park, I think we'd see him look to pull in situations where it's called for. Which is another thing I love about Aoki. He adjusts his approach depending on situations. Frankly if Gomez is healthy, he's in CF every day so inability to play CF as well isn't an issue.

 

All that being said, I'm still thinking Clark could be useful as backup in corner OF spots for a lot less than either Parra or Aoki. I'm amazed at what an afterthought he's become since the Lind deal.

[JohnBriggs12]

Does he make sense for the Brewers?

 

He's got zero power, his slugging has dropped every year he's been in MLB, but his OBP last year would have been 3rd on the team and it's been within .007 every year of his career. He's been a better hitter than Parra throughout his career in OBP and OPS+. I would guess Parra is better defensively but I don't think he could be that much better. Aoki actually hits lefties better than righties (.776 OPS vs. 726) which would be a huge upgrade over Parra against lefties (.587 OPS).

 

Personally, I would prefer Parra is traded and that money used on Aoki.

 

I would attribute Aoki's lack of HR in KC to the park. Aoki's HRs as a Brewer were almost exclusively the result of pulling balls when he was looking inside and looking to pull. Miller Park and their picnic area in RF is very inviting and I think we'd see him back to hitting 8 or so in a Brewer uniform.

[BrewBalls]

The problem seemed to be that Aoki could not play CF well enough to be our 4th OF.

 

Could trade Parra, to get Allen Craig. Sign Aoki and a guy like Bonafacio. Now you're covered all over the field.

Not sure the Red Sox would be willing to trade Craig for Parra since they already have to many OF on their roster. I would be ok with trading Parra for a controllable bullpen arm and then sign Aoki and Bonifacio. You can add Rogers/Jimenez and Herrera/Gomez to back up SS as the 25th man and this would be a deep and versatile bench. We are probably adding $2-3M with both signings after you remove Parra's. Should be quite doable.

[Roderick]

If Aoki could be had for 10 million over two years, I'd welcome him back. If it came down to it, I'd rather have him than Parra, but that ship has sailed. I doubt they would sign another backup OF to such a deal.

 

I'd rather have Parra at 1 yr $6M (if that ends up being the amount) than Aoki at 2 yrs for $10M.

 

I do think Parra is quite a bit better fielder than Aoki. I would actually want this backup to be able to hit righties better, where you can platoon with Davis if he doesn't come around. Parra hits the righties better than Aoki. And if not a platoon, he will still get more at bats spelling Davis, Braun, and Gomez when there is a righty on the mound.

[SRB]

I like Aoki, but Parra is better and is already on the team, so...

[TURBO]

I realize there is always love on this board for ex-Brewers, but Aoki is gone, time to accept it and move on... I'd rather have Parra.

[pacopete4]

I realize there is always love on this board for ex-Brewers, but Aoki is gone, time to accept it and move on... I'd rather have Parra.

 

 

This is one time I don't think it has to do with being an ex-Brewer. If we could sign Aoki for cheaper than Parra, which should happen, and then trade Parra for some bullpen help, we would be in a better position with the roster. That's what people are talking about.

[jerichoholicninja]

I realize there is always love on this board for ex-Brewers, but Aoki is gone, time to accept it and move on... I'd rather have Parra.

 

 

This is one time I don't think it has to do with being an ex-Brewer. If we could sign Aoki for cheaper than Parra, which should happen, and then trade Parra for some bullpen help, we would be in a better position with the roster. That's what people are talking about.

 

Pretty much this. Although I don't think Aoki would be cheaper than Parra. He'd probably cost a little more, a couple hundred thousand or a million.

 

Aoki provides something this team doesn't have a whole lot of: OBP.

[torts]

nope, no need, we got the most we could get out of him, including Will Smith. No need to retread time with Aoki

[Outlander]

If the Brewers were able to trade away Parra for a decent asset and then sign Aoki for less than what Parra will be paid then picking up Aoki would be fine. A one year deal would be optimal for Aoki as I think his skills are declining and his defense is already suspect.

[jerichoholicninja]

At this point in free agency players are going to start to sign for cheap (except for Shields and Scherzer). I think the trade Parra and sign Aoki is starting to look like a smart idea. Parra probably wouldn't bring back a player of Will Smith's caliber but some sort of reliever with upside shouldn't be out of the question.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd take Aoki over Parra in a heartbeat if the price was the same. Aoki can leadoff and Parra can't and the Brewers don't have a true leadoff hitter on their roster. Parra strikes out too much for a guy who lacks power and Aoki's the better situational hitter. That being said investing $6-7 million per year for a 4th outfielder is an extravagance. I can't think of one team that won because they had the best 4th outfielder in the game.

[MNBrew]

I think the key re: the 4th OF lies in this: The 4th OF indeed DOES matter in terms of being a top-level team if circumstances necessitate he ends up starting half your games or more because of injuries or poor production. . . . If you don't have a 4th OF with whom you'd be comfortable starting 100 games, that kind of loss of a starter puts you instantly in a bind (ditto re: a 5th IF).

 

Parra's bat is okay, not stellar, and of course his defense is quite good. However, OF defense is WAY down the list of concerns for the Brewers in 2015: Even Davis is okay with the glove -- he's just "blessed" with an arm that's only a notch or so better than Juan Pierre's. HOWEVER, being caught without a leadoff hitter who can consistently get on base could prove to be a significant issue.

 

I don't know that the Brewers can or should over-correct on their lineup makeup, but a step in the direction of better balance would be quite helpful. Khris Davis can mash the ball, that's for sure. But I like Aoki over Parra because he represents a bat that brings a real plus-quality attribute (consistently solid OBP) vs. no standout attributes.

[Matt Breen]

For all the talk about Aoki, why would the guy come to Milwaukee to be 4th OF? Of the top of my head teams like Cincy, Atlanta, Baltimore, ChiSox, Houston, Oakland, SF and Texas would probably have him in the lineup most of the time. I'm not saying all of these teams are going to want the guy, but Aoki can probably find a few places that will give him a full time job for at least two years. In Milwaukee he's not even a platoon player.

[pete]

You could be totally right Reilly, but his numbers slipped a bit in KC, there's a little bit of scariness in the way he plays defense, he's getting on in years and some of the ways he contributes don't jump off the stat sheet. I have no idea how much of a commodity he is - same with KRod.

[endaround]

1. Why would anyone trade for Parra if Aoki is available cheaply?

 

2. If Aoki was coming cheap KC would have likely resigned him instead of the remains of Alex Rios for $11m.

[MNBrew]

I'd think unless it's a trade of somewhat inflated contracts, trading Parra would most likely be part of a 3-or-more-player deal. I'd think the only exception would be if Aoki is demanding multiple years and a potential trade partner would place more value on Parra's top-level defense and only 1 year of obligation.

[jerichoholicninja]

The lack of interest in Aoki is all about his lack of power. Power has become the rare commodity in baseball right now that teams covet, hence guys like Nelson Cruz and Mike Morse get all the love. When you can get on-base at .350 clip I really don't care how far you can hit the ball, especially when there's only been a .007 difference in your OBP every year of your career. Aoki's lowest OBP of his career is better than every full season but one of Cruz's career and Morse's two best season OBP's were virtually identical to Aoki's career number.

 

Aoki's age is obviously a concern and with the current roster he probably isn't a starter but between Braun's thumb, Davis's inexperience, Gomez playing style of major injury or suspension waiting to happen he's going to get plenty of at bats and enough time off to keep him fresh.