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2021 MLB Draft Thread (Pre-Draft Discussion)


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Starting the 2021 MLB Draft discussion thread.

 

With 20 games remaining in the Brewers season they currently sit in the #10 draft spot if the season ended today. Unlike past MLB Drafts, the 2021 version will be held in Atlanta during the MLB All Star Break (July 11-13, 2021).

 

Below are some links and lists of the top draft prospects for 2021.

 

FanGraphs: THE BOARD for 2021 Draft

 

2080 Baseball: 21 Names to Know for the 2021 MLB Draft

 

Baseball America: Top 2021 College MLB Draft Prospects

 

Baseball America: Top 2021 High School MLB Draft Prospects

 

ESPN: Way-too-early 2021 MLB draft rankings

 

Prospects Live: Top 150 MLB Draft 2021 Prospects

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If the Brewers do end up with a top ten pick, Louisville third baseman (and Oak Creek, WI native) Alex Binelas would be an intriguing target.

Binelas was 0-3 against me in my high school career. Were they three rockets off the bat hit right at our infielders? That’s irrelevant.

 

Now I’m just spitballing here, but based strictly on the Head-to-Head high school statistics, maybe I should be the first round pick in this scenario. If the Brewers are looking for a pitcher who topped out at 83-84 at his very best, and currently has a fully torn UCL, I’m their guy.

 

In all seriousness Binelas is a ridiculously good hitter, solid defender, and based on my interactions with him and knowing a few Oak Creek players who played with him, a genuinely good person.

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If the Brewers do end up with a top ten pick, Louisville third baseman (and Oak Creek, WI native) Alex Binelas would be an intriguing target.

Binelas was 0-3 against me in my high school career. Were they three rockets off the bat hit right at our infielders? That’s irrelevant.

 

Now I’m just spitballing here, but based strictly on the Head-to-Head high school statistics, maybe I should be the first round pick in this scenario. If the Brewers are looking for a pitcher who topped out at 83-84 at his very best, and currently has a fully torn UCL, I’m their guy.

 

In all seriousness Binelas is a ridiculously good hitter, solid defender, and based on my interactions with him and knowing a few Oak Creek players who played with him, a genuinely good person.

That’s great!

 

Here is an interview he did early this week with Prospects Live if you’re interested:

A conversation with Alex Binelas (Louisville 3B)

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Have they settled how draft order is going to be determined? I had read nothing was final, and it may not be based entirely off this seasons record alone. Thanks!

The commissioner was given approval by both the owners and MLBPA to set this year’s draft order. It was seemingly done in case a full season wasn’t able to be completed. There was speculation that if this season was cut short due to the pandemic they would have added in last year’s records combined with this season for the order. Now that it’s looking likely they’ll get through the regular season I’ll be a little surprised if Manfred goes away from the order being set solely based on this season’s standings.

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I forget if the WS winner/loser are automatically moved to the last two spots regardless of record in the MLB or not? I know the NFL does that.

 

It would be funny for the Brewers to have a sub-500 record, get hot and win the WS, but still get a top-half draft selection. Hey... a guy can dream... :)

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I forget if the WS winner/loser are automatically moved to the last two spots regardless of record in the MLB or not? I know the NFL does that.

 

It would be funny for the Brewers to have a sub-500 record, get hot and win the WS, but still get a top-half draft selection. Hey... a guy can dream... :)

Historically the order is set strictly on regular season record. Playoff results have had no bearing on the order, which is sort of dumb, IMO. I was frustrated following the 2017 season when the Twins got the #20 draft selection despite making the playoffs (they drafted Trevor Larnach) and the Brewers missed the playoffs but drafted a spot behind the Twins because they had one more regular season win (they selected Brice Turang).

 

The World Series champion Washington Nationals drafted #22 overall in this past draft.

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Regarding next year’s draft, there was an article by RJ Anderson (CBS) over the weekend suggesting that some team personnel do think the previous year’s records maybe incorporated in some way into the draft order: It's unclear how MLB will set 2021 draft order

 

In my opinion it would be a really bad move if they just combined the overall records from this season with last season since that would give the 2019 season much more influence in the draft order for 2021 since many more games were played. It would significantly help a team like the Padres get a great draft pick despite having a legitimate WS contender this season. If they do use the 2019 records I think they have to somehow weight 2020 results more heavily so it has a larger bearing on determining the order than 2019. I still hope that ultimately they just use 2020 records and leave it at that.

 

The Brewers are set to be one of six teams that’ll get a Comp A round pick this year. There don’t appear to be many free agents that play for revenue-sharing recipients who are expected to get qualifying offers (they’d turn down) and will sign for >$50 million in the offseason. That’s the threshold to get a compensation pick after the first round. Also, the Astros lost their first round pick for next year. This is a long winded way of saying the Comp A pick could fall somewhere between #30-#35 (maybe that moves down one spot if the Reds get a post round 1 compensation pick for losing Trevor Bauer).

 

Assuming they don’t trade their Comp A draft pick the Brewers could end up with 3 draft picks in the top 50 this year. It is considered a very deep draft on the prep side, and I think we’ll see many college players rise in the rankings if a spring season is able to be held.

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Per reporting from Jeff Passan, sources believe the 2021 MLB Draft Order will be based solely on 2020 records (reverse order standings of 2020 regular season games).

 

Here’s an excerpt from his ESPN.com article...

 

While MLB has yet to announce whether teams' 2020 records will determine draft order, a source familiar with the league's thinking said that the clause written into MLB's March agreement with the players' association that gave the league the right to determine draft order was a contingency in case the season was canceled well before records were indicative of much. Even though 60 games doesn't give the full picture of who's really good and who isn't, the source said it's highly likely that the draft order will be determined by this year's record.

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The 2021 MLB Draft order is set (assuming they indeed go solely with 2020 overall record as was recently reported).

 

[pre]PICK TEAM RECORD WIN% GB STREAK L10

1 Pittsburgh 19-41 .317 -- Lost 1 4-6

2 Texas 22-38 .367 3.0 Won 3 4-6

3 Detroit 23-35 .397 5.0 Lost 1 2-8

4 Boston 24-36 .400 5.0 Won 2 6-4

5 Baltimore 25-35 .417 6.0 Won 1 3-7

6 Arizona 25-35 .417 6.0 Won 1 6-4

7 Kansas City 26-34 .433 7.0 Won 1 5-5

8 Colorado 26-34 .433 7.0 Lost 1 4-6

9 LA Angels 26-34 .433 7.0 Lost 3 6-4

10 NY Mets 26-34 .433 7.0 Lost 3 3-7

11 Washington 26-34 .433 7.0 Won 3 7-3

12 Seattle 27-33 .450 8.0 Lost 1 5-5

13 Philadelphia 28-32 .467 9.0 Lost 3 3-7

14 San Francisco 29-31 .483 10.0 Lost 3 4-6

15 Milwaukee 29-31 .483 10.0 Lost 1 5-5

XX Houston 29-31 .483 10.0 Lost 3 4-6 (Forfeited)

16 Miami 31-29 .517 12.0 Won 1 5-5

17 Cincinnati 31-29 .517 12.0 Won 1 7-3

18 St. Louis 30-28 .517 12.0 Won 1 6-4

19 Toronto 32-28 .533 13.0 Lost 1 6-4

20 NY Yankees 33-27 .550 14.0 Lost 1 4-6

21 CHI Cubs 34-26 .567 15.0 Won 1 4-6

22 CHI White Sox 35-25 .583 16.0 Lost 1 2-8

23 Cleveland 35-25 .583 16.0 Won 1 8-2

24 Atlanta 35-25 .583 16.0 Lost 2 6-4

25 Oakland 36-24 .600 17.0 Won 1 5-5

26 Minnesota 36-24 .600 17.0 Lost 1 6-4

27 San Diego 37-23 .617 18.0 Won 3 5-5

28 Tampa Bay 40-20 .667 21.0 Won 4 8-2

29 LA Dodgers 43-17 .717 24.0 Won 4 8-2[/pre]

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Mock drafts will start to come out now that there’s an assumption the order is set based on this year’s records. Although they will change significantly between now and next July, it seems apparent there is going to be a lot of talent in this year’s draft. The Brewers should be able to snag an exciting prospect with the #15 selection.

 

Here’s the first mock I’ve see with the actual draft order:

 

Prospects Live 2021 Mock Draft - Version 1.0

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Not only would they have three picks in likely the top 50, but also about $3 million more than this year to spend in the first five rounds.

Which is why I think they’re likely to trade that Competitive Balance Round A pick. Doing so will save them approximately $2.2 million. I would certainly prefer they keep the pick and use that money to leverage their draft options accordingly, but their previous track record coupled with it being a year where they’re going to be checking the couch cushions suggests that pick is likely to be gone.

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Unless you are making the argument that trading the pick shifts money to the major league club, the strategy is actually more expensive. Omar costs much more than the pick and Claudio did after a couple of years. With potential deferred draft money, it could likely be more expensive than normal. The strategy is based in the same analytical concept of drafting college players instead of high school players. You are running the odds of what you get immediately at the major league level is greater than what you will get later, especially considering the large number of players (even compensatory picks) that never even make it to the major league team.
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Brewer Fanatic Contributor
hopefully they don't waste it by trading it away. they are 0-2 on this.

 

Personally, I hope they keep the pick and take a chance at a higher ceiling player, but Claudio did have positive bWAR both of the last two years (0.6 and 0.1), which is probably more than the average B level comp pick. And Narvaez's return isn't finished yet. I'm still betting his goes positive next year.

 

But given this is practically a 1st round pick, they should hang onto the pick.

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The Brewers were awarded a comp A pick and will have the 32nd pick in the 2021 draft.

It could change slightly. If a player turns down the qualifying offer from a team that receives revenue sharing and then signs for >$50 million the team that lost the player will receive a pick at the end of the first round. So for instance if Trevor Bauer signs with anyone other than the Reds for a total compensation package exceeding $50 million (highly likely) then the Reds would get the #30 overall pick in next year's draft which would bump the Brewers down a spot.

 

Below is what the draft order currently looks like.

 

First Round:

 

1. Pittsburgh Pirates

2. Texas Rangers

3. Detroit Tigers

4. Boston Red Sox

5. Baltimore Orioles

6. Arizona Diamondbacks

7. Kansas City Royals

8. Colorado Rockies

9. Los Angeles Angels

10. New York Mets

11. Washington Nationals

12. Seattle Mariners

13. Philadelphia Phillies

14. San Francisco Giants

15. Milwaukee Brewers

16. Miami Marlins

17. Cincinnati Reds

18. St. Louis Cardinals

19. Toronto Blue Jays

20. New York Yankees

21. Chicago Cubs

22. Chicago White Sox

23. Cleveland Indians

24. Atlanta Braves

25. Oakland Athletics

26. Minnesota Twins

27. San Diego Padres

28. Tampa Bay Rays

29. Los Angeles Dodgers

 

**Compensation picks for qualifying offer free agents that signs with new club for over $50 million and previously played on club receiving revenue sharing.

 

First Supplemental Round (in between first and second rounds):

Marlins

Tigers

Brewers

Rays

Reds

Twins

 

Second Supplemental Round (in between second and third rounds):

Pirates

Orioles

Royals

D-backs

Rockies

Indians

Cardinals

Padres

 

The Astros will make their first pick in the third round.

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