Packers 2022 NFL Draft Discussion

[PeaveyFury]

39 minutes ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

They draft with the intent of getting 2 contracts out of players. They're not going to use a first rounder on someone with the intent on letting him walk after his first contract. I didn't contradict anything. I'm actually surprised what I stated isn't common knowledge by now. Gute's concrete preference for youth and athleticism from his first rounders is well documented. Just a really weird argument to make.

As you well know, sometimes what fans perceive as "common knowledge" can often have exceptions to these assumed 'rules', regardless of how assertively their stated on fan sites.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

40 minutes ago, PeaveyFury said:

As you well know, sometimes what fans perceive as "common knowledge" can often have exceptions to these assumed 'rules', regardless of how assertively their stated on fan sites.

If you want to leave open the possibility for an exception, go for it. Logically though it becomes clear that there's more to their first round draft pattern than a preference for simple youth. They're a draft and develop team that rarely makes exceptions when it comes to giving big money and 3rd contracts to players over 30. Knowing that, it makes all the sense in the world that they'd have a pretty strict rule criteria for 1st round picks when the number of players they have interest in is at its longest. Drafting a 24 year old with a first round pick means he's 29 after one contract. That's not value for a team that sets out to get as much of two contracts out of players before they hit 30. And every pick is made with the intent of the player panning out. You don't use a first rounder on a player whose best case scenario means giving him that one big extension when they're on the cusp of 30. The Packers want those most expensive years (the 2nd contract) to come in the player's physical prime (25-29).

[Fear The Chorizo]

3 hours ago, PeaveyFury said:

Though I don't share your apparent confidence in my knowledge about the Packers' thought process, I think you've actually countered your own argument with your last sentence. The Packers could draft him in the first to get the 5th year, then simply let him walk at age 30, getting 5 years of all-pro caliber RT play on a rookie contract then moving on without paying him big money, ever.

I didn't realize a 24 yr old converted TE has already made the NFL's all pro team after playing a couple seasons of offensive line at central michigan.  He's projected to eventually be a good starting tackle in the NFL, but he's still very much a development prospect and could just as easily bust out of the league than become a perennial pro bowler.  With all the picks GB has in the late first-mid second, Raimann is an intriguing option if he falls in their lap with their late 1st round pick.  Any team that drafts him in the first round has to view him as a development project that probably shouldn't be starting his 1st season despite the fact he's already in his mid-20s - which would burn at least one of those rookie contract years up.

[PeaveyFury]

7 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Raimann is an intriguing option if he falls in their lap with their late 1st round pick.  

....which, to be fair, is what is being discussed above.

And on your initial point, I apologize if my post came across as assuming all-pro performance. Rather, it jumped to the point in his career that, as the previous poster noted, if the Packers were at the point they were considering offering a 2nd contract to a 28-29 year old, it would presumably be the result of high-caliber play prior to that event.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Gotcha - my main point is this time of year there are always a handful of media draftnick darlings that rocket up boards due to measureables.  Sometimes they pan out to be great NFL players - but many times they flame out, particularly if part of the physical advantage they have playing against inferior and immature college players evaporates as soon as they walk into their first NFL minicamp.

Specific to Raimann - watched some game tape of him in a 2021 game against a very average Miami of OH defense, and it was apparent that he struggled with pass pro against speed on the edge.  Despite his frame and wingspan he seemed to block much more with his body/size advantage against lineman that won't be playing on Sundays (and any other day NFL plays) than with hands behind extended arms.  Initial punch on pass blocking was more like absorbing the lineman instead of stopping his momentum with his hands.  If a lineman in the NFL lets a defender get into his chest, he's beat either for a holding penalty or he's going to give up pressure.

His athleticism makes him very intriguing - but Raimann is very much a project.

[PeaveyFury]

Packers reported pre-draft visits thus far:

1. Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas 
2. Sam Williams, EDGE, Ole Miss
3. Tyquan Thornton, WR, Baylor 
4. Velus Jones, Jr., WR, Tennessee
5. George Pickens, WR, Georgia
6. John Thompson, CB, Texas
7. Eric Johnson II, DL, Missouri State
8. Tariq Carpenter, SAF/LB, Georgia Tech
9. Samori Toure, WR, Nebraska

Reported Virtual Meetings

• Alex Wright, EDGE, UAB
• Jamaree Salyer, OL, Georgia
• Greg Dulcich, TE, UCLA
• Leon O’Neal, SAF, Texas A&M

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/nfl-draft-2022-packers/2022/4/1/23006155/packers-2022-pre-draft-visits-tracking-top-30-and-virtual-meetings

[NBBrewFan]

6 hours ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

The Packers under Gutekunst are (wisely) a  2 contracts before 30 organization. They're not even considering a guy who will be on the doorstep of 30 after one contract with a first round pick. Under Gute the Packers have drafted 5 players in the first round in his four years. 4 of the 5 were age 21 and the other was 22. You can safely cross Raimann off your lists. Unless maybe he drops to the 2nd round where contracts max out at four years.

I did a quick look at draft age for the last 4 drafts and a majority of the draftees up to the 4th round are 21 or 22 years of age (majority being >50%). The early rounds looked even higher (in the 85% range) for age 21/22.  Just by a quick glance it doesn't appear to be a statistical anomaly.  Has anyone done a statistical analysis to show their preference is statistically different from the general draft pool of 1st round picks?

[True Blue Brew Crew]

5 hours ago, NBBrewFan said:

I did a quick look at draft age for the last 4 drafts and a majority of the draftees up to the 4th round are 21 or 22 years of age (majority being >50%). The early rounds looked even higher (in the 85% range) for age 21/22.  Just by a quick glance it doesn't appear to be a statistical anomaly.  Has anyone done a statistical analysis to show their preference is statistically different from the general draft pool of 1st round picks?

Thanks for looking that up. I had a feeling it extended beyond the first round for them and you just illustrated that. No doubt they'll make an exception from time to time in rounds 2-4 but I doubt we'll see a draft choice over 22 by Gute in round 1. Especially with that 5th year option.

[NBBrewFan]

5 minutes ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

Thanks for looking that up. I had a feeling it extended beyond the first round for them and you just illustrated that. No doubt they'll make an exception from time to time in rounds 2-4 but I doubt we'll see a draft choice over 22 by Gute in round 1. Especially with that 5th year option.

Sorry, it appears that I was vague with my previous post.  I looked at ALL drafted players by EVERY team, not just the Packers.  I was concluding that just based on a quick glance, the Packers don't seem to be different than the other teams and those trends for 21/22 YO is because that's what's being drafted by most teams in the early rounds. A statistical analysis might reveal something that my quick glance didn't.

[brewcrewdue80]

Think we are overreacting on the age thing.  Majority of these young men were coveted and given scholarships to play football in college as a senior in HS before they graduated.  General 2-4years before turning pro to enter the draft means they are 21/22.  2020 happened though so you may have a player 1 year older because the extra year of eligibility.  So the rarity is being 23 and older to even be drafted, much less your team then actually selecting such a player.  There may be just a handful typically where they are 23 or older and actually drafted each year.

As to Raimann himself, hes at a position where I see no reason to look that route and address in the 1st round.  He drops(and realistically happening) at 53 or 59 if you don't see talent exceeding what he can bring, go ahead pull the trigger.

I think it's becoming apparent Williams with his ACL is still going to be thought of as the #1 WR in this draft.

Wilson #2  and after that it seems like a tier of 6-8 names who anybody would clamor is 3rd best.  I seen something on London in regards to some sorta OPS number that has predicted the poor results of certain WRs drafted with high regard.  Reagor was in that list.   Yet at the same time I've seen a few mocks he's going in top 12 1st even WR off the board.  Generally I see mostly Burks being there at 22 to select though not always mocked to be the pick by GB.  Olave has gotten the choice over Burks if he was available.  Yet for whatever reason, Sky Moore seems to be the name you wouldn't expect over Burks to end up being the mocked pick.  I can't see GB using a 1st rd choice on a short WR when Amari Rodgers is 5'9"   Jones is 5-9  Hill is 5-10 Dillon is 6 even.  Lazard at 6'5"   But we're talking Lazard as your #3 WR.  You just can't line up another sub 6foot WR option for Rodgers to work with as #1 or 2 WR.  Dotson is another one below 6 feet.  You gotta believe any WR 6feet and below is being lowered on GB's big board til the 3rd rounds and later.  I think you include Olave in that to small a build to insert as 1 or 2 from day 1.

Burks has to be the WR you see GB taking with Watson or Pierce as #2.  I mean there is London and that OPS stat scares me away who could be tied at 1 with Burks.  Since the team has been a high RAS seeker I figure the OPS slight would keep London off GB's radar.

[LouisEly]

13 hours ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

The Packers under Gutekunst are (wisely) a  2 contracts before 30 organization. They're not even considering a guy who will be on the doorstep of 30 after one contract with a first round pick. Under Gute the Packers have drafted 5 players in the first round in his four years. 4 of the 5 were age 21 and the other was 22. You can safely cross Raimann off your lists. Unless maybe he drops to the 2nd round where contracts max out at four years.

As someone who has a MBA specializing in marketing research from the #1 marketing research MBA program in the country, I don't draw conclusions on behavior based on n=5, particularly without knowing the population distribution.

With regards to the population, how many players were there in the last couple of drafts who were a) 23 years or older and b) had shown enough skill to be considered in the top two rounds?  I'd guess very few.  You would need to find comps of that age and similar metrics (RAS, PFF grade, height/weight/length, etc.) to be able to say that they avoided those players.  And, as mentioned, lots of players took advantage of the covid year in order to give themselves a better chance to get drafted higher by developing more and getting more scouting/exposure/pro day. 

However, the sample size on athleticism w/r/t Packers draft picks is much larger and more likely to be representative of actual behavior.  I'd be willing to bet more on a players RAS (Raimann = 9.81, Wyatt 9.63) than age.

And there's no guarantee of a second contract.  If they're a two-contracts before 30 organization, how come nobody from the 2018 draft class, Gutey's first, has received one yet?  Right now that behavior is 0-11 and 0-4 on players who stayed four years; Alexander hasn't signed an extension yet.  They also were willing to sign Adams beyond 30 and offered him as much or more than the Raiders; Adams left because he wanted to, not because the Packers don't keep players beyond 30. 

That, and Aaron Rodgers.  If they're good, they'll keep them.

[brewcrewdue80]

Ok So I watched some breakdowns on Alec Pierce,  and couple things became apparent.  1 Pierce has possession WR written all over him by how well he commits to making the catch.  2.  As a result of his tenacity to ensure he catches the ball, he is often falling to the ground vs making any Yac.   Ridder the QB underthrew Pierce very often though as Pierce outran Ridder's arm(Something alarming to me that whoever drafts Ridder will find themselves looking for a new QB in 4years)  The underthrows left the defenders right on top of Pierce so the Yac skills just may need a better thrower to his speed.  Pierce wins at completing the 50-50 jump balls with his size and hands and that tenacity he must catch the ball. 

I see now why he's not in the 1st round discussion because he won't be breaking plays and taking it to the house making defenders miss tackles.  He showed an ability to separate from the CB after his first move and has the speed to make the catches 20+yards downfield. Tenacity to make the catch, but not the tenacity to break it open and in to the end zone.   Unlike

George PIckens.  Fun video watching what limited amount there was.  Eric Stokes teammate 2years ago and Pickens for as well as Stokes is showed the ability to beat Stokes....not every time in the few plays shown, but you could see on Stokes face he wasn't invincible vs Pickens.

Pickens is the complete opposite of Pierce after he makes the catch.  He wants to get to the endzone with the ball in his hands.  Highlights showed he was a playmaker and he has the speed 4.4 40(Pierce 4.41) and moves to expect him to do so.  Definitely at the next level he will score more yac TDs than Burks or Pierce.  The ability to create and win at line of scrimmage with such a little history I couldn't infer a determination on.  He is shifty and agile and has attitude on making plays.  Notch another WR with Burks/Watson/Pierce to be just fine with when GB selects them.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Big difference between marketing firms hiring people at a fraction of the salary who could be with them for 40 years vs NFL teams drafting athletes trying to time up their physical prime. It's no secret that the Packers idea of a successful draft pick is getting 2 contracts out them. They rarely make exceptions and give out that 3rd contract. We have countless examples of players performing at a high level that the Packers have bid adieu and then watched that player not live up to their 3rd contract elsewhere. Fan favorites at that. And of course that doesn't mean they hand out 2nd contracts to draft picks that don't pan out. Do be ridiculous. Again, teams draft players with the intention at the time that said player is going to be good. No one is writing the name on the card saying this guy is going to be terrible.

 

And yes it does matter and it's not just Raimann. Here is a list of player pushing 23+ who might go in the first round that I'd happily make a friendly wager with anyone here that the Packers won't draft with either of their 1st round picks...

Bernard Raimann

Devin Lloyd

Devonte Wyatt

Trevor Penning (22.9)

Jermaine Johnson

Jalen Pitre (22.8)

Boye Mafe

Jaquan Brisker (22.9)

Arnold Ebiketie

Malik Willis

Kenny Pickett

Abraham Lucas

Christian Watson (22.9)

The bolded I've seen mocked to the Packers at either 22 or 28, or to other teams in that vicinity and linked to the Packers. It's not happening. No QB surprise this year either even if Kenny Pickett were to slide ala Aaron Rodgers.

Some pretty juicy names there. I'd love to see Wyatt on the board at 22 and then read all the chatter in that 15 minute window that the Packers are surely taking him. Then laugh when they take someone else that they're perceived to be reaching for. Wyatt is 24 years old.

[patrickgpe]

Kiper released a perfect fits mock this AM, since its ESPN+, i'll only share his packer picks: The 2 WR's he picked, i haven't heard much chatter linking them to the packers and I think they are going to take a T in the first 2 rounds.  I know they do like players like Johnson, so i could see that. 

 

22. Green Bay Packers (via LV) Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State

 

28. Green Bay Packers Zion Johnson, G/C, Boston College

 

53. Green Bay Packers (via LV) Alec Pierce, WR, Cincinnati

 

59. Green Bay Packers Myjai Sanders, DE/OLB, Cincinnati

[PeaveyFury]

9 minutes ago, patrickgpe said:

Kiper released a perfect fits mock this AM, since its ESPN+, i'll only share his packer picks: The 2 WR's he picked, i haven't heard much chatter linking them to the packers and I think they are going to take a T in the first 2 rounds.  I know they do like players like Johnson, so i could see that. 

 

22. Green Bay Packers (via LV) Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State

 

28. Green Bay Packers Zion Johnson, G/C, Boston College

 

53. Green Bay Packers (via LV) Alec Pierce, WR, Cincinnati

 

59. Green Bay Packers Myjai Sanders, DE/OLB, Cincinnati

I’m less excited about Sanders than about 6 other late first/second round edge guys, but I’d be very happy with the other three picks.

[madbad2000]

1 hour ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

Big difference between marketing firms hiring people at a fraction of the salary who could be with them for 40 years vs NFL teams drafting athletes trying to time up their physical prime. It's no secret that the Packers idea of a successful draft pick is getting 2 contracts out them. They rarely make exceptions and give out that 3rd contract. We have countless examples of players performing at a high level that the Packers have bid adieu and then watched that player not live up to their 3rd contract elsewhere. Fan favorites at that. And of course that doesn't mean they hand out 2nd contracts to draft picks that don't pan out. Do be ridiculous. Again, teams draft players with the intention at the time that said player is going to be good. No one is writing the name on the card saying this guy is going to be terrible.

 

And yes it does matter and it's not just Raimann. Here is a list of player pushing 23+ who might go in the first round that I'd happily make a friendly wager with anyone here that the Packers won't draft with either of their 1st round picks...

Bernard Raimann

Devin Lloyd

Devonte Wyatt

Trevor Penning (22.9)

Jermaine Johnson

Jalen Pitre (22.8)

Boye Mafe

Jaquan Brisker (22.9)

Arnold Ebiketie

Malik Willis

Kenny Pickett

Abraham Lucas

Christian Watson (22.9)

The bolded I've seen mocked to the Packers at either 22 or 28, or to other teams in that vicinity and linked to the Packers. It's not happening. No QB surprise this year either even if Kenny Pickett were to slide ala Aaron Rodgers.

Some pretty juicy names there. I'd love to see Wyatt on the board at 22 and then read all the chatter in that 15 minute window that the Packers are surely taking him. Then laugh when they take someone else that they're perceived to be reaching for. Wyatt is 24 years old.

Pretty bold list.  I am looking forward to watching this one play out.

[patrickgpe]

1 hour ago, PeaveyFury said:

I’m less excited about Sanders than about 6 other late first/second round edge guys, but I’d be very happy with the other three picks.

I agree, and I am fine with the 3 other picks. If they want a 2nd round edge guy I would look at someone like a Cameron Thomas. 

[Matt Breen]

I think the long speed guys will go at a premium in the draft. That means Wilson, Olave, Pickens, Watson, Dotson is similar - but not as big. No way Wilson drops, and Olave getting to #22 is a gamble.

I'm guessing we hope to get one of those types in round one, and then hit up another receiver in round 2 - such as Skyy Moore, John Metchie, Jalen Tolbert - even a tight end, such as McBride. 

That's just a guess as you just don't know what the team thinks of a bigger guy like Burks or London. Or Jameson Williams - who probably would have been the #1 WR in the draft if he had not been injured. He should be ready around mid-season. But do the Packers want to mess with someone whose ETA is uncertain? 

Olave seems a perfect fit for the Packers - but will he make it to #22 is another question. 

[PeaveyFury]

Reports that the Packers hosted Devonte Wyatt on a visit yesterday.

[patrickgpe]

1 hour ago, reillymcshane said:

 

Olave seems a perfect fit for the Packers - but will he make it to #22 is another question. 

i looked at trade value charts. they could trade their 3rd to move up to about 17 to make sure they get him. 

[True Blue Brew Crew]

2 hours ago, PeaveyFury said:

Reports that the Packers hosted Devonte Wyatt on a visit yesterday.

They love their smokescreens

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Perspective...

Peter Bukowski -  Rashan Gary is the same age as Devante Wyatt

[Matt Breen]

2 hours ago, PeaveyFury said:

Reports that the Packers hosted Devonte Wyatt on a visit yesterday.

He'd be a nice addition. 

[PeaveyFury]

2 minutes ago, reillymcshane said:

He'd be a nice addition. 

Absolutely. A potentially dominant d-line presence to wreak havoc with Clark.

[Matt Breen]

To me, the great thing is that the Packers have a lot of good options - at multiple positions. Thus they can adjust depending on who drops to them. 

Of course, you have to look at need - that's huge. But if they don't like a WR at #22, they can grab someone they value - even if it's not at the position. They can then look at WR at #28 or in the 2nd round. Or even via trade or FA.