Hiura Slighted and Demoted; Adames hitting #2 with a .289 OBP

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Who do you start vs. lefties then? Rowdy is a terrible matchup vs. them. Brosseau is hurt.  

Rowdy has a career .739 OPS vs lefties. That's not world beater level but it's not terrible.  I've seen it said a few times he's terrible against lefties but I'm not sure where the idea comes from other than assumptions based on perceived platoon advantage.

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Who do you start vs. lefties then? Rowdy is a terrible matchup vs. them. Brosseau is hurt.  

You start Hiura as well more often than not and have McCutcheon in the lineup.  My point is at this stage in the season, there's no reason to sit Hiura against a right-handed starter.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

4 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

You start Hiura as well more often than not and have McCutcheon in the lineup.  My point is at this stage in the season, there's no reason to sit Hiura against a right-handed starter.

LOL, then you get a bunch of "Gah ... why is Counsell so dumb? Doesn't he understand reverse splits?" type posts in the IGT. What those posters don't seem to realize is that this offense as a whole just isn't good against left-handed pitching. They are caught between a rock and a hard place when a lefty is on the mound.

[Never Outhustled]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Who do you start vs. lefties then? Rowdy is a terrible matchup vs. them. Brosseau is hurt.  

Sure, but how does this disqualify starting Hiura versus a RHP?

[Never Outhustled]

1 minute ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

LOL, then you get a bunch of "Gah ... why is Counsell so dumb? Doesn't he understand reverse splits?" type posts in the IGT. What those posters don't seem to realize is that this offense as a whole just isn't good against left-handed pitching. They are caught between a rock and a hard place when a lefty is on the mound.

The reason people think CC didn't understand reverse splits is because he doesn't start Hiura versus RHP.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

1 minute ago, Never Outhustled said:

The reason people think CC didn't understand reverse splits is because he doesn't start Hiura versus RHP.

I think it's probably a bit of both not playing Hiura vs. RHP, and starting him every game against LHP, even though the numbers bear out that he's terrible against LHP. It does seem like he has course-corrected a bit over the last several weeks, though. The team just doesn't have enough hitters available who are adequate vs. LHP, hence why Hiura sees so much action against them.

[monty57]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Does it really matter what happened in  May and July they were in first place the entire time? The facts are since mid August, Keston Hiura has 38 plate appearances at DH, McCutchen has 34. But wait there's more.... of McCutchen's 34 PAs as the DH, 19 of those PAs were in games where Hiura was also in the line up at a different position. Therefore since mid-August, Hiura has been in there as DH most of the time. Moreover, of the 15 PAs McCutchen has had at DH (without Hiura in the lineup) since mid-August, McCutchen was in there against Julio Urias (lefty), Andrew Haney (lefty), Drew Smyly (lefty). 

The reality is, McCutchen is rarely the DH anymore against RHP with Hiura also on the bench. I'm sure this will be dismissed as anecdotal evidence. However, as long as Hiura continues to homer at a hall of fame pace, he probably will be in there in some capacity the vast majority of the time. 

Good. It took them until mid-August to finally start to do what even the least "stat-centric" fan was calling for. It has been pretty obvious all season that Hiura should be played against RHP, and it has been obvious for a few years that McCutchen shouldn't be played regularly against RHP.

Hiura has been so much better vs RHP than McCutchen, that had they started playing Hiura over McCutchen a couple of months ago, we would probably be ahead of the Padres right now instead of trying to catch them.

I'm generally on board with what the Brewers do. Change that, they're usually way ahead of me so I rarely question what they're doing. That's why I'm so baffled by this. It has been really, really obvious that Hiura should play vs RHP and as we sit here on August 30 with 127 games under our belts, Hiura has only had 104 PAs against RHP this season (with a 201 wRC+ in those appearances).

For reference, Aaron Judge has a 199 wRC+ vs RHP. Paul Goldschmidt is at 171. They are probably going to be the AL and NL MVPs.

Let the man play.

[Fear The Chorizo]

56 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

LOL, then you get a bunch of "Gah ... why is Counsell so dumb? Doesn't he understand reverse splits?" type posts in the IGT. What those posters don't seem to realize is that this offense as a whole just isn't good against left-handed pitching. They are caught between a rock and a hard place when a lefty is on the mound.

So what?  To me, Hiura has proven enough to start every game down the stretch against RHP and if he needs a day off, it would come against a lefty starter due to those reverse splits.  FWIW if he doesn't need a day off, I don't think there are enough better options on this roster against LHP to just auto bench Hiura. either.  What's instead been happening is Hiura is in the lineup on most days when a lefty is starting despite his reverse splits and sitting way too much against RH starters.

The Brewers are caught between a rock and a hard place when a lefty is on the mound no matter what they do with Hiura when the rest of their RH hitters aren't performing up to snuff.  It's been an organizational wart for several years that needs to be resolved this offseason.

 

[monty57]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

The Brewers are caught between a rock and a hard place when a lefty is on the mound no matter what they do with Hiura when the rest of their RH hitters aren't performing up to snuff.  It's been an organizational wart for several years that needs to be resolved this offseason.

 

For reference, using wRC+. Number in parenthesis is the total Fangraphs WAR for the season, only done to show that Mitchell has already provided almost as much WAR as McCutchen ? 

Adames (3.5): vs RHP 115, vs LHP 94

Yelich (2.2): 122, 95

Peterson (2.0): 106, 136 

Renfroe (1.9): 126, 130

Wong (1.6): 132, 32

Hiura (1.3): 201, 64

Caratini (1.3): 79, 102

Narvaez (1.1): 86, 89

Urias (1.1): 99, 95

Tellez (1.0): 124, 101

Taylor (0.9): 94, 78

Davis (0.5): 61, 125

Brosseau (0.4): 103, 122

McCutchen (0.2): 95, 104

Severino (0.1): 101, 91

Mitchell (0.1): 199, 187

If I had to pencil in a "vs LHP" lineup (without Brosseau because he's hurt), I'd probably go:

Yelich (LF), McCutchen (DH), Renfroe (RF), Tellez (1B), Adames (SS), Peterson (2B), Caratini (C), Urias (3B), Mitchell (CF). 

When Brosseau is healthy, I'd go:

Yelich, Brosseau, Renfroe, Tellez, McCutchen, Adames, Peterson, Caratini, Mitchell

 

It's not overly pretty. Brosseau and McCutchen were brought in this past offseason to help the team vs lefties, and for the most part they have done that. Unfortunately, much of the rest of the roster has done pretty poorly against them. I'd definitely make sure that Renfroe, Tellez, McCutchen and Brosseau (when healthy) are near the top of the order. I just kept Yelich in there because he seemed to settle into the leadoff spot and I'd hate to have something go haywire if he were dropped in the order vs lefties. Adames probably shouldn't be #2 against righties, and he definitely shouldn't be there vs lefties. He profiles much better as a 5/6 guy than a #2 guy.

[rickh150]

Sad how Hiura is being managed…. Adames can do no wrong… Hiura cannot do much right to earn regular starts at DH over a .680 OPS McCutchen.

Would love to hear a good reason for the MADNESS.

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, rickh150 said:

Sad how Hiura is being managed…. Adames can do no wrong… Hiura cannot do much right to earn regular starts at DH over a .680 OPS McCutchen.

Would love to hear a good reason for the MADNESS.

Adames is an elite defensive SS and could end the year as a 5 WAR player. He's by far our best position player.

[rickh150]

45 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Adames is an elite defensive SS and could end the year as a 5 WAR player. He's by far our best position player.

Yet who has a better OPS overall? Not Adames. One plays every day. The other has a version of the baseball plague. Scraps and spot starts.
 

Hiura should play DH ……EVERY GAME….against every righty. There is no argument with the numbers. 

Never seen anything like it,
 

[wiguy94]

11 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Yet who has a better OPS overall? Not Adames. One plays every day. The other has a version of the baseball plague. Scraps and spot starts.
 

Hiura should play DH ……EVERY GAME….against every righty. There is no argument with the numbers. 

Never seen anything like it,
 

Let's play a fun game. We will do the highest K-rate among hitters at certain PA numbers.

 

500 PA - Eugenio Suarez 30.8%

400 PA - Chris Taylor 36.0%

300 PA - Joey Gallo 38.8%

250 PA - Oneil Cruz 38.8%

200 PA - Keston Hiura 41.9% (only one other player, Brett Phillips, has 200 PA and a K-rate over 40%)

 

Guys who strike out as much as Hiura does do not play every day.  Only 11 players in the MLB have 50 PA and a K-rate over 40%. 9 of the 11 have a wRC+ under 100. Dermis Garcia has 79 PA and a 140 wRC+ with a K-rate of 44.3% but his .438 BABIP likely speak to him far overperforming his expected results.

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

Let's play a fun game. We will do the highest K-rate among hitters at certain PA numbers.

 

500 PA - Eugenio Suarez 30.8%

400 PA - Chris Taylor 36.0%

300 PA - Joey Gallo 38.8%

250 PA - Oneil Cruz 38.8%

200 PA - Keston Hiura 41.9% (only one other player, Brett Phillips, has 200 PA and a K-rate over 40%)

 

Guys who strike out as much as Hiura does do not play every day.  Only 11 players in the MLB have 50 PA and a K-rate over 40%. 9 of the 11 have a wRC+ under 100. Dermis Garcia has 79 PA and a 140 wRC+ with a K-rate of 44.3% but his .438 BABIP likely speak to him far overperforming his expected results.

And yes Hiura has a 118 wRC+ but he's also one of 2 MLB players with a HR/FB rate over 30%. The other is Aaron Judge. It's unlikely that Hiura can maintain such a prodigious HR/FB rate over a larger sample size considering his career HR/FB rate is over 10% lower than what it has been this season. If Hiura's HR/FB rate was stabilized with his career average he would have 10 HR this year. If you take 4 HR away and turn them into say 2 doubles and 2 outs his slashline goes from .231/.318/.462 for a .780 OPS to .221/.309/.413 for a .722 OPS

[rickh150]

3 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Let's play a fun game. We will do the highest K-rate among hitters at certain PA numbers.

 

500 PA - Eugenio Suarez 30.8%

400 PA - Chris Taylor 36.0%

300 PA - Joey Gallo 38.8%

250 PA - Oneil Cruz 38.8%

200 PA - Keston Hiura 41.9% (only one other player, Brett Phillips, has 200 PA and a K-rate over 40%)

 

Guys who strike out as much as Hiura does do not play every day.  Only 11 players in the MLB have 50 PA and a K-rate over 40%. 9 of the 11 have a wRC+ under 100. Dermis Garcia has 79 PA and a 140 wRC+ with a K-rate of 44.3% but his .438 BABIP likely speak to him far overperforming his expected results.

Let’s play a fun game….
Let’s look at how much more 944 is than 680

4 minus 0 is 4.  Can’t go 4 minus 8. Let’s borrow from 9. 14 minus 8 is 6. 8 minus 6 is 2….. so 264 more.

You are trying to do what exactly? The bar Hiura needs to beat to play DH regularly against righties is low. Even if you chop off 150 points from his OPS, he’s still better. 

[trwi7]

1 hour ago, rickh150 said:

Sad how Hiura is being managed…. Adames can do no wrong… Hiura cannot do much right to earn regular starts at DH over a .680 OPS McCutchen.

Would love to hear a good reason for the MADNESS.

You can make an argument that Hiura should play more.  Considering the options playing over him, I'd even be inclined to agree that he should play more even though the ridiculous K rate would likely cause his numbers to crater as he's exposed more.  You lose the plot when you go after Adames' playing time or say "he can do no wrong."

[wiguy94]

18 minutes ago, trwi7 said:

You can make an argument that Hiura should play more.  Considering the options playing over him, I'd even be inclined to agree that he should play more even though the ridiculous K rate would likely cause his numbers to crater as he's exposed more.  You lose the plot when you go after Adames' playing time or say "he can do no wrong."

Hiura has amazing numbers against RHP which is certainly awesome, but those numbers are on the back of an unheard of 44% HR/FB rate against RHP. The next closest among players with at least 100 PA is Aaron Judge at 35%...Hiura's HR/FB rates put him as a prodigious power threat despite a max EV in the 69th percentile. There's just so many red flags in his game between the ridiculous HR/FB rates, ridiculous K-rates, and the lack of anything to fall back on (defense) if the bat falls off.

[wiguy94]

Among hitters with 200 PA Hiura is 2nd in HR/FB and one of only two players with a HR/FB rate over 30%. Here are the players with 10 highest HR/FB rates in baseball and their Max EV percentile.

 

Name - HR/FB rate, Max EV percentile

 

Aaron Judge - 36.2%, 99th

Keston Hiura - 35.0%, 69th

Oneil Cruz - 29.3%, 100th

William Contreras - 29.2%, 97th

Giancarlo Stanton - 28.9%, 100th

Yordan Alvarez - 27.6%, 97th

Michael Harris II - 26.5%, 88th

Trayce Thompson (lol) 26.2%, 80th

Byron Buxton - 24.3%, 92nd

Mike Trout - 23.6%, 95th

 

Hiura has always been on the higher side of HR/FB rate with a 23.9% career average but he's upped that level this year to Judge level despite having a 69th percentile Max EV. I think it is safe to say that Hiura probably couldn't maintain such a prodigious HR/FB rate with everyday playing time considering his physical limitations.

 

If Hiura's HR/FB rate was his career average he would have 10 HR instead of 14. If you give him 2 doubles and 2 outs instead of those 4 HR his OPS would drop from .780 to .722. People talk about his amazing numbers against RHP but he is rocking a 44% HR/FB rate against RHP. The next closest player with 100 PA is Judge at 35.4%. I'm guessing the Brewers just don't think those numbers are sustainable for Hiura over extended playing time.

[wiguy94]

Hiura has seen two separate extended playing time periods this year. May 18th to June 25th he played 21 games and had 77 PA. August 17th to September 9th he played 20 games and had 75 PA. 

 

His wRC+ in the first 10 games of those extended runs were 172 and 171. His K-rates in those 10 games were 36.8% and 34.3%.

His wRC+ in the second 11/10 games of those extended runs were 58 and 44. His K-rates in thise 11/10 games were 53.8% and 40.0%.

 

So in both of Hiura's extended playtime runs he started extremely hot then faded and starting striking out much more. He hasn't done a very good job of justifying extended playing time. 

[Robocaller]

On 8/30/2022 at 12:13 PM, timpep said:

Rowdy has a career .739 OPS vs lefties. That's not world beater level but it's not terrible.  I've seen it said a few times he's terrible against lefties but I'm not sure where the idea comes from other than assumptions based on perceived platoon advantage.

he's been a lot worse this year (.643 OPS).

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It's pretty obvious at this point that this forum has a much higher opinion of Keston Hiura than the Brewers, and likely the rest of MLB.

[UpandIn]

11 hours ago, rickh150 said:

Sad how Hiura is being managed…. Adames can do no wrong… Hiura cannot do much right to earn regular starts at DH over a .680 OPS McCutchen.

Would love to hear a good reason for the MADNESS.

Woah...Adames? I think Hiura should be getting regular At Bats as well and the whole, "projections say he won't keep doing what he's doing," while he sits 9 games is silly...but you're going in on a GG caliber SS who's actually hitting and really seems like a strange conflation. 

If Hiura was an elite defender, I've got no doubt he'd be playing regularly. 

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

It's pretty obvious at this point that this forum has a much higher opinion of Keston Hiura than the Brewers, and likely the rest of MLB.

BINGO!

[rickh150]

20 hours ago, trwi7 said:

You can make an argument that Hiura should play more.  Considering the options playing over him, I'd even be inclined to agree that he should play more even though the ridiculous K rate would likely cause his numbers to crater as he's exposed more.  You lose the plot when you go after Adames' playing time or say "he can do no wrong."

Offensively, Adames has well over twice as many at bats as Hiura. Adames plays SS…plays a key defensive position well. Granted, He should play there a lot. However, to hit him second daily, feature him as the best hitter on the team, and dare not take him out of the lineup for a day is too much. He is still not hitting a better OPS than Hiura, who is in the doghouse for whatever reason.  CC said it wasn’t the Ks, by the way, back in August.
My reasoning for INCLUDING Adames in all this? If one is so high on hitting Adames second, they should be that high or really much higher on merely having Hiura in the lower part of the lineup, hitting DH ( I tire of those bringing defense into an argument against Hiura… there is a DH now and McCutchen isn’t good), batting regularly against right handed starting pitching… which means he should start about 65% of the time.  If one is low on Hiura and his bat, then one should be low on having Adames too, especially hitting daily in the #2 spot.

 

[rickh150]

8 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

BINGO!

You are confusing what is being said. I believe it is a slam dunk, easy decision, to play Hiura DH against righties. Cutch should sit. I am not calling on Hiura to be the Brewers rep. at the All Star Game….. He’s the team’s best option.. easy… for this year against righties at DH. 

He also is getting such limited at bats and spot starts; that would be  tough and difficult on anybody. Yet he STILL has a better OPS than our best hitter(?)…the guy that cannot be taken out of the 2 spot! His righty OPS numbers are comparable to MVP candidates. AND our team desperately needs another threat against righties. Are we hoping that Cutch will come around the last part of September? It would be great to see what his numbers would be with twice the at bats, with all or most against righties. Hiura was just playing against lefties for a while and Cutch continues, mind you, to still face righties. Nobody is bragging Cutch’s #s up much when putting Hiura down, by the way.

Also, I tire of the reasoning that since CC decided it, it must be the right decision. He makes mistakes too, and it is ok to question this. He should have a good excuse for not playing a better hitting option at DH in a select situation, but he doesn’t. At least not a sane one.  Cutch is better, he thinks, for 2022 than Hiura at DH against righties.  This decision is keeping us on the outside of the playoffs right now, much like not giving Aguilar many more at bats in 2017.