Hiura Slighted and Demoted; Adames hitting #2 with a .289 OBP

[NBBrewFan]

2022 Qualifying Batters

K% is predictive?

[Ro Mueller]

I don’t think we’d diminish Hiura’s trade value by using up his final option year just weeks before the trade deadline, then trade him at the same deadline.

So I really think Hiura will be around for the remainder of this season, either mashing in AAA or as a situational bench bat when MLB rosters expand. And he’ll be some team’s regular DH in 2023.

Oh, he also hit a game-winning 3-run homer tonight in Nashville. 

 

[UpandIn]

12 hours ago, GAME05 said:

It's a reasonable argument to make that with Hiura on a hot streak, he should be continuing that hot streak at the Major League level. But I'm not convinced that past performance is predictive of future results. There's just as much reason to say his streak ended his final day in Milwaukee since we couldn't know what he'd do tomorrow. And then if he does stay, how do you go about deciding when that hot streak is over? If we try to ride a hot streak we're just as likely to see him be terrible the next three weeks and lose an extra game or two because of it before it's declared that his streak is over.

Ultimately is Hiura the guy you'd like to see get 4 ABs in a playoff game? If not it shouldn't be any big deal if he's demoted.

How about if he's a guy I'd like to see 2-3 At bats vs a Right handed starter in a playoff game and then possibly pinch hit for when the starter comes out? Then can I think it's a big deal he got demoted? Or maybe I just want to see what he can do. He WAS after all our prized top prospect who raked when he came up, struggled, then when he started to show signs of turning a corner...and yes, I understand, not all the peripherals were looking great, but the raw results were and I'd like to ride those as long as possible to see if they turn into something a bit more.

I think it's pretty remarkable what he's done this year vs right handed pitchers when he hasn't been given consistent opportunities to stay in the lineup. I was of the belief that we were hoping for some iteration of 2019 Hiura and Yelich to come back. That this could solve a whole lot of our offensive issues. Yelich is of course going to get every opportunity and it would appear he's become more Shin Shoo-Choo than MVP at this point(not that anyone expected a .670 SLG again, but....500?

Meanwhile we've got a guy posting a .303/.418/.652 line vs righties and he's in AAA? Because he's been lucky? 

Sure, that'll level out. The 93+ exit velocity is likely to keep it high. His use of right field should also help him maintain a higher BABIP(obviously not .512, but...high enough vs RHers). 

I'm not sure the Brewers have the luxury of sending guys down who are barreling up baseball's and doing damage at the plate because we're projecting that they won't be able to maintain it. 

 

[Samurai Bucky]

11 hours ago, damuelle said:

 

I was thinking -- what could make Hiura a better hitter.  I remember he had a crazy high leg kick (a la Urias).  So much motion for somebody whose contact rate is terrible.  I recall during last night's game how they are trying to get Yelich to not have as much of a leg kick when he swings.  Perhaps it is luck or good fortune, but he had two hits -- he other way!

My son's academy team had taught a toe tap or even a wider stance on two strikes with a heel lift.  The exit velo, on average, takes a hit, but the ball gets put in play. 

They used Bo Bichette (among others) as an example:

This approach, along with the toe tap on strike 0 and strike 1, reduces motion, and gets the player to put the ball in play.  I really don't like the 3PO approach that has gripped the hitting coaches of so many teams -- including the Brewers.  47% K rate?  27% for Adames?  Even 24.4% for Yelich.  I know the league average is around 21%, but I would hope the Brewers would change swing mechanics to help put the ball in play -- especially on two strikes.  Kolten Wong said he appreciated how the Brewers hitting philosophy allowed him to take mighty hacks on two strikes unlike at the Cardinals.  His K% went from 15% to 17% (not that bad of a difference) and his OPS stayed relatively the same.  I would argue that he was already an established player with a good grip on swing mechanics.

Get Hiura, and others, to quiet their swing.  Get the ball in play.  Reduce the "feast or famine" that we seem to see with this lineup.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

19 hours ago, Hopper said:

How sad is it that he is our best overall hitter with numbers like that?  

The state of hitting in MLB is downright right pathetic. 

I realize that when I state the importance of batting average in your top of the order guys, I will also be accused of old time baseball thinking (which is an irritating thing to be accused of, and it happens here all the time to many posters), but it is what it is.  Take any of the new stats you want that players are judged on these days, batting average and OBP are still important when it comes to table setters.

The state of modern MLB offense makes for a really bad spectator experience, I agree with that. 

[edfunderburk]

I’d like for Hiura to get a fresh start elsewhere … maybe in the potential trade with Washington for Bell 

Hiura would play everyday in Washington & maybe become a solid bat for them

THere is no room for what he brings in Milwaukee … by that I mean his HIGH strikeout rate & poor defense no matter where he plays

[Jim French Stepstool]

12 hours ago, Samurai Bucky said:

 

  Kolten Wong said he appreciated how the Brewers hitting philosophy allowed him to take mighty hacks on two strikes unlike at the Cardinals.  

 

The common rhetoric is "The first two strikes are yours, the last one is for the team". I hate that. Trouble is, if you get to "the teams" strike, it means you're usually at a disadvantage in the count & more apt to chase. There ARE times you can, even should, look to ambush, but IMO it's situational. 

[Robocaller]

The contrast isn't between Hiura and Adames, it should be between Hiura and Severino.

Please trade Severino!

[Baldkin]

Hiura has the second worst Z-Contact% in baseball amongst those with 50PA.

 

SECOND WORST. The idea that anything he has done so far is sustainable is simply not the case. 

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=50&type=5&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=7,a

 

[edfunderburk]

I hate this topic heading - Hiura “slighted & demoted”
I don’t want to see this topic at the top of the MLB thread 

I completely disagree with the idea that he was slighted … he’s been terrible for the better part of three years with a massive strikeout rate

He did hit the ball fairly well for a few weeks before his recent well-deserved demotion

Hopefully, this is a moot point in two days - I’d love to see him get a fresh start elsewhere in a trade 

The last thing I want to see is Hiura hang around so we can hope for a better 2023 

He is what he is … a poor defensive player with some pop who may never live up to his potential (based of draft position)

Yes, he had a great rookie season … pitchers adjusted - he has not done so in response

[brewers888]

Hiura was the teams best hitter against righties so he was slighted when he was demoted. I find it funny how much many fans hate Hiura but go out of their way defending others because they have high exit velocities on their ground balls. Again maybe Kestons numbers were unsustainable but his counting stats were very good and he should have had the opportunity to keep hitting but he isn't a veteran with 10 yrs of experience so he gets sent down while we keep three catchers.

[monty57]

On 7/31/2022 at 5:24 AM, Robocaller said:

The contrast isn't between Hiura and Adames, it should be between Hiura and Severino.

Please trade Severino!

Caratini: 172 PA, .231/.355/.413, .342 wOBA, 119 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR

Severino: 20 PA, .235/.350/.353, .318 wOBA, 103 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR

Narvaez: 213 PA, .235/.324/.364, .306 wOBA, 94 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR, free agent after this season

 

What sucks is that Severino won't be eligible for the playoffs. Otherwise, the move would be to keep Caratini and Severino and trade Narvaez. I think that their desire to keep Caraini and Severino around for next year is the reason Hiura is in AAA. That and the fact that they need a backup CF, and Brosseau hits LHP really well. 

In the Brewers' minds, those things trump the pluses Hiura brings to the table. If Hiura wasn't complete inept against LHP, he'd probably still be on the MLB team, as they really need to get better against LHP. 

[sveumrules]

Seventy Nine Plate Appearances vs RHP. That is Hiura’s entire case.

79 PAs with a .520 BABIP. The highest BABIP among qualified hitters this year is Xander at .389.

79 PAs with a 53.8% HR/FB rate. The highest HR/FB rate among qualified hitters is Judge at 36.2%.

79 PAs with a 43.0 K%. The highest K% among qualified hitters is Brandon Marsh at 36.2%, though he is at least a GG caliber defender (+8 DRS | +4.7 UZR | +9 OAA).

Even after his scorching 2019 debut (348 PAs) people were like “that was cool, but there’s no way Keston repeats his .402 BABIP or 24.1 HR/FB% if he doesn’t get that 30.7 K% under control”.

Keston had 321 PAs vs RHP from 2020-21 with an 80 wRC+ | 35.5 K% | .263 BABIP | 20.9 HR/FB%.

I’ve been enjoying the offense starting to click on all cylinders recently, I don’t need to watch Hiura regress to the mean.

 

[UpandIn]

Also with exceptional exit velocity and actual....production.

 

When did we get to the point where projecting when a player will start struggling trumps his actual performance?

The ACTUAL tangible results on the field?

I'm all for analytics, though, they probably made the game more boring, but each team better. But this game isn't as complicated as people make it at times. Hiura was hitting the ball hard. He was hitting well. And the argument is really, "yeah, but he probably wouldn't have continued to?"

Ok

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Also with exceptional exit velocity and actual....production.

 

When did we get to the point where projecting when a player will start struggling trumps his actual performance?

The ACTUAL tangible results on the field?

I'm all for analytics, though, they probably made the game more boring, but each team better. But this game isn't as complicated as people make it at times. Hiura was hitting the ball hard. He was hitting well. And the argument is really, "yeah, but he probably wouldn't have continued to?"

Ok

It's not that he "probably wouldn't have continued to." It's that he wouldn't have with a 45% K rate and .520 BABIP...

[UpandIn]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

It's not that he "probably wouldn't have continued to." It's that he wouldn't have with a 45% K rate and .520 BABIP...

Well, the one certainty I know is that he was hitting .303/.418/1.069 OPS line vs righties, walking nearly 12 pct of the time, average exit velocity of 93+, a ~50% hard hit rate and you're probably never going to get the strikeout rate down if you send him down when he's finally starting to hit the ball hard again, hitting for power and getting on base.

 

Fully understand projecting what a player is going to do when looking at trades. Doesn't make much sense when it's a player who's ACTUALLY performing on your team, you've need more offense and you send the guy giving you that down.

 

[Guest]

24 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

It's not that he "probably wouldn't have continued to." It's that he wouldn't have with a 45% K rate and .520 BABIP...

Why is it that his positive numbers must regress towards reality but his k% can't possibly continue to regress. I think both sides are being a bit intellectually dishonest here.

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, timpep said:

Why is it that his positive numbers must regress towards reality but his k% can't possibly continue to regress. I think both sides are being a bit intellectually dishonest here.

What makes you think his K% will suddenly decrease when it has done nothing but skyrocket since 2019?

[rickh150]

On 7/29/2022 at 3:28 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

 

[rickh150]

Hiura HR and two walks thus far…

[Baldkin]

4 hours ago, timpep said:

Why is it that his positive numbers must regress towards reality but his k% can't possibly continue to regress. I think both sides are being a bit intellectually dishonest here.

Because he can't hit pitches in the zone. If you can't make contact with pitches in the zone, you are going to strike out, a lot. No matter what. 

 

His K% hasn't regressed at all. Since June 1, he had 68 PA and K'd 32 times. That's 47%. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Baldkin said:

Because he can't hit pitches in the zone. If you can't make contact with pitches in the zone, you are going to strike out, a lot. No matter what. 

 

His K% hasn't regressed at all. Since June 1, he had 68 PA and K'd 32 times. That's 47%. 

I thought his k rate went down when he started facing righty starters more before his demotion. K rate was closer to 30% in July, almost like it was regressing towards the mean after his terrible June.

[rickh150]

He’s back.

[Never Outhustled]

On 7/30/2022 at 2:42 PM, edfunderburk said:

I’d like for Hiura to get a fresh start elsewhere … maybe in the potential trade with Washington for Bell 

Hiura would play everyday in Washington & maybe become a solid bat for them

THere is no room for what he brings in Milwaukee … by that I mean his HIGH strikeout rate & poor defense no matter where he plays

Why couldn't he be the DH? He's better than McCutchen by a wide margin. 

[edfunderburk]

11 minutes ago, Never Outhustled said:

Why couldn't he be the DH? He's better than McCutchen by a wide margin. 

Since he wasn’t traded, he should DH against RH starters