Hiura Slighted and Demoted; Adames hitting #2 with a .289 OBP

[Never Outhustled]

30 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

Since he wasn’t traded, he should DH against RH starters 

Yes, yes, yes!

[monty57]

14 hours ago, Never Outhustled said:

Why couldn't he be the DH? He's better than McCutchen by a wide margin. 

He could, but if they didn't do it when McCutchen was in a month-long slump earlier in the year, I don't think it's likely they will do it now. 

I think he'll get some starts in a "super utility" role in LF, 1B, 2B and DH. I just hope they give him additional starts against RHP, and don't try to force the "square peg into a round hole" by starting him mainly against lefties. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It continues to defy logic that a right-handed batter with the bat speed that Hiura brings simply cannot figure out even mediocre left-handed pitching. I think that's why he's been thrown into the lineup so often against lefties ... in educated theory, he SHOULD be able to hit them. 

[NBBrewFan]

On 8/4/2022 at 9:40 AM, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

It continues to defy logic that a right-handed batter with the bat speed that Hiura brings simply cannot figure out even mediocre left-handed pitching. I think that's why he's been thrown into the lineup so often against lefties ... in educated theory, he SHOULD be able to hit them. 

I think he's a candidate to see an optometrist.  It's possible he has an astigmatism or other issue with his eye that he can't see the ball in focus or as clearly from a left handed pitcher compared to right handed pitcher. Personally I have a left dominant eye where my focus appears to be dominated by my left eye, but when each eye is tested (with the other closed) I have better vision in my right eye.  If there is a vision issue for Keston, he could twist his head slightly to the right when batting against a LH pitcher so that he has the same angle of view as a right hander or change his batting stance so he's angled a little for a LH (place his back (right) foot farther from the plate by a certain amount.

[Fear The Chorizo]

On 8/4/2022 at 9:40 AM, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

It continues to defy logic that a right-handed batter with the bat speed that Hiura brings simply cannot figure out even mediocre left-handed pitching. I think that's why he's been thrown into the lineup so often against lefties ... in educated theory, he SHOULD be able to hit them. 

My best take is that when Hiura is going good, he's consistently driving the ball to center-right center, and he's proven to be a very good offspeed hitter against RHP, where he can let the ball travel and use his handspeed to drive a ball that's breaking away from him.  LHP offspeed breaks in towards his hands, so his approach winds up jamming himself or getting caught in between much more with lefties.  If he's going to be a quality everyday hitter he's got to make an adjustment - but I also think the Brewers are at the point where they've done a disservice to him at the MLB level by how sporadic his ABs have been against RHP.  Even in 2019, most of Hiura's success came against RHP - he just isn't getting consistent ABs when he's in Milwaukee, and they can't seem to find a way to take advantage of his pronounced reverse platoon splits.  

McCutcheon has been decent of late....but he's still OPS-ing below 0.725 and essentially is in the everyday role Hiura otherwise would have had, particularly against RHP.  

[rickh150]

Just play Hiura 5 times a week, bat him 8th, and give him DH. There is a spot for him, especially this year with the DH. McCutchen can still play over half the games in CF or even some DH. 
 

Like others say, Hiura has been jerked around. Even the last two/three days, he has hardly played after hitting very well in Nashville the week prior. Just An at bat for a thrown out of game Yelich does not help.
 

His #s against righties this year is MVP like in limited at bats, and he needs at bats, he needs comfort in knowing he is going to play consistently for the next three or four weeks, comfort in knowing he will DH and not be thrown in at 1B, 2B, or LF, comfort in batting lower in the lineup, and comfort in knowing he isn’t going to be sent down in August. I hope CC can sit down and tell him this in a nutshell. Give him the best opportunity to succeed. Do or die time, really, for him.

[Never Outhustled]

He better be in the lineup Tuesday...

[tmwiese55]

1 minute ago, Never Outhustled said:

He better be in the lineup Tuesday...

IDK, HRs in back to back game and hitting the ball hard on outs.  Probably means he won't do that in his next few games, seems like a good spot to send him down.  Chess not checkers. 

[Never Outhustled]

13 hours ago, tmwiese55 said:

IDK, HRs in back to back game and hitting the ball hard on outs.  Probably means he won't do that in his next few games, seems like a good spot to send him down.  Chess not checkers. 

Also, he leadoff the 7th with a strikeout. We would have won easily had he grounded weakly to shortstop.

[JohnBriggs12]

There's more than Hiura and McCutcheon on this team who's best position is DH.  Renfroe's got a strong but often not accurate arm but he's a butcher in the outfield and when he's not hitting home runs, he's of little value.  He simply can't track a fly ball that is hit over his head.

[Never Outhustled]

4 minutes ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

There's more than Hiura and McCutcheon on this team who's best position is DH.  Renfroe's got a strong but often not accurate arm but he's a butcher in the outfield and when he's not hitting home runs, he's of little value.  He simply can't track a fly ball that is hit over his head.

McCutchen's best position isn't DH, because that position should be reserved for actual hitters.

[edfunderburk]

On 8/4/2022 at 9:40 AM, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

It continues to defy logic that a right-handed batter with the bat speed that Hiura brings simply cannot figure out even mediocre left-handed pitching. I think that's why he's been thrown into the lineup so often against lefties ... in educated theory, he SHOULD be able to hit them. 

I hope he got some advice from Ryan Braun this weekend regarding hitting lefties

[edfunderburk]

On 8/5/2022 at 7:00 PM, NBBrewFan said:

I think he's a candidate to see an optometrist.  It's possible he has an astigmatism or other issue with his eye that he can't see the ball in focus or as clearly from a left handed pitcher compared to right handed pitcher. Personally I have a left dominant eye where my focus appears to be dominated by my left eye, but when each eye is tested (with the other closed) I have better vision in my right eye.  If there is a vision issue for Keston, he could twist his head slightly to the right when batting against a LH pitcher so that he has the same angle of view as a right hander or change his batting stance so he's angled a little for a LH (place his back (right) foot farther from the plate by a certain amount.

I hope he goes to a different eye doctor than Joe Gray

[Samurai Bucky]

23 hours ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

Renfroe's got a strong but often not accurate arm but he's a butcher in the outfield and when he's not hitting home runs, he's of little value.  He simply can't track a fly ball that is hit over his head.

Bingo!  If he takes a better route on the fly ball late in the game, then Hiura's dinger is a walk-off.

[NBBrewFan]

Here are Hiura's stats by season.  His 2022 looks much more like 2019 than 2020+2021:

His wRC+ is almost identical to 2019, his WAR scaled to the same PA as 2019 would be 2.3, his OBP is significantly higher than his AVG because his BB% is way up (and much better than 2020+2021).  Yes, K% is high, but he is still being productive even though he's making so many outs by strikeout.  Personally I'm less concerned about his K% if he can maintain his ISO and wRC+ going forward.  His AB/HR is 12.9 which is still very high.  His Exit Velocity, Barrel% and HardHit% are all BETTER than 2019. In several ways he is an enigma.

The nice thing about his HR on Saturday is that he "guessed" correctly what he was going to get and the general area (I think) because he just crushed that ball. Based on EV/Barrel/HardHit it may be that a part of the jump in K% is that he is just guessing wrong on where and what type of pitch he is getting on the strike 3 pitch . I just hope he gets consistent AB for the remainder of the year.

[Jopal78]

On 8/7/2022 at 5:25 PM, JohnBriggs12 said:

There's more than Hiura and McCutcheon on this team who's best position is DH.  Renfroe's got a strong but often not accurate arm but he's a butcher in the outfield and when he's not hitting home runs, he's of little value.  He simply can't track a fly ball that is hit over his head.

Agreed, Renfroe is a one and done and will most likely be non-tendered in the off-season as they try to get away from the all or nothing hitters they e collected 

[Brewcrew82]

20 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Agreed, Renfroe is a one and done and will most likely be non-tendered in the off-season as they try to get away from the all or nothing hitters they e collected 

This is the first time I've even seen this hinted at, so I don't get where the "likely" comes from. I honestly don't think the Brewers are in a position to non-tender .800+ OPS hitters...Unless you think they're going to go into next season with a Yelich, Frelick, and Ruiz outfield, which they aren't. Renfroe has been a real asset for us this year...

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

This is the first time I've even seen this hinted at, so I don't get where the "likely" comes from. I honestly don't think the Brewers are in a position to non-tender .800+ OPS hitters...Unless you think they're going to go into next season with a Yelich, Frelick, and Ruiz outfield, which they aren't. Renfroe has been a real asset for us this year...

We appear to be on the way to non-tendering a whole lot of valuable players next year. Renfroe, I've seen Bush is already out the door in another thread! Probably why we traded Hader...

Really though, I can't imagine we're going to DFA...really any of the players who are performing well. Tellez may be the closest I suppose we might...though I really doubt it. Houser if the elbow issues turned out to be worse, but as of now, maybe a Suter, Gustave, Gott, but the guys who'll be making a lot in arbitration are players who are very important and that you just don't DFA. The ones in the middle are all pretty clearly worth it. Renfroe would be traded before you'd dump a 30HR, .800 OPS RFer with his type of arm(even with some poor defensive decisions recently, mainly with regard to his inability to hit the cutoff man and his belief he can throw everyone out with that massive right arm). 

Hopefully in 2024 we can afford to be more pick as it pertains to who we're throwing into the OF/DH, but that supposes at least 2-3 of Frelick, Hiura, Weimer, Mitchell, Ruiz develop or Taylor shows a little more. Pretty big assumptions. 

[Robocaller]

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

This is the first time I've even seen this hinted at, so I don't get where the "likely" comes from. I honestly don't think the Brewers are in a position to non-tender .800+ OPS hitters...Unless you think they're going to go into next season with a Yelich, Frelick, and Ruiz outfield, which they aren't. Renfroe has been a real asset for us this year...

Unless they have a chance to sign someone better at a reasonable cost, they should definitely keep Renfroe. He's got the highest OPS of qualified batters and he's not a complete hack in the outfield--he has 9 assists this year.

McCutchen is the one that's going.

[Jopal78]

7 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

This is the first time I've even seen this hinted at, so I don't get where the "likely" comes from. I honestly don't think the Brewers are in a position to non-tender .800+ OPS hitters...Unless you think they're going to go into next season with a Yelich, Frelick, and Ruiz outfield, which they aren't. Renfroe has been a real asset for us this year...

We’ll see where he finishes. He’s likely to get 10 million dollars or more in arbitration next year and is a low average, low OBP slugger. Joc Pederson, for example, is playing on a 6 million dollar contract.
 

Like in real estate Renfroe is  sort of over priced next to comparable players. After all it is his relatively high price that partially accounts for why he’s in Milwaukee to begin with

[endaround]

Pederson was basically replacement level the previous two years before his contract.  He is now a platoon bat. Renfroe will be worth 2 wins for the second season in a row.  Given the Brewers spent $8.5 million on McCutchen hard to see then blanching at $10 million dollars for an actual starting level player.

[monty57]

Since this is a Hiura thread, I'll relate this to him. McCutcheon is on a one-year deal, so he's gone after the season. He certainly isn't hitting like someone who needs to be in the lineup every day. These two factors lead me to believe that McCutcheon is a prime candidate to lose some PAs going forward.

The "unsustainable" Hiura is continuing to sustain, even with limited playing time and a trip to AAA. At some point, he needs to start eating into other players' PAs. DH is the best place for Hiura, but his ability to play (to some degree) 1B, 2B and LF should allow Counsell to find some regular PAs for Hiura to see what he can do.

I was one of his biggest proponents early in the year, got frustrated at his lack of PT and figured the Brewers had given up on him, but since he didn't get traded and is still here, let him play. He could help out this year, and he can also prove one way or the other whether he is worth offering arby and paying him a little more to be on the roster next year. 

To the thoughts about Renfroe, having him and Hiura on the roster next year could save the team from having to go out and sign "another McCutcheon" next year. Renfroe would be the normal RF, but he could play some DH as we have plenty of other OFs. Hiura would be the normal DH, but could get PAs around the field when other players need a "day off" at DH.

I doubt the Brewers will go into the season with two rookie starting OFs, and I think we'll start a rookie in CF, so Renfroe is a nice "transition" player who can be the starter in RF until and unless someone else forces him out. Then, one of our current prospects will be the RF starter in 2024. Of course, if someone wants to really pay up in trade for Renfroe this offseason, I'd be fine with that. I just don't think that we'd just DFA him to save money. With Hader gone, Wong likely to be gone, and Turang and one of the CFs likely to be ready, we should have a some extra payroll room even with Renfroe on the roster. Even moreso if Hiura can be our DH for around $1M.

[nate82]

The biggest problem with Hiura is the top of the strike zone.  All of Hiura's home runs have come at the bottom to the middle of the strike zone.  Anything above the middle of the strike zone and Hiura has a huge hole.  I expect pitchers to start pitching Hiura up in the zone where he whiffs at a 42% - 69% of the time.  These are both balls in the strike zone and out of the strike zone.  As can be seen in the images below pitchers are going to go back to pitching Hiura up in the strike zone and Hiura is just going to strike out.  The book is out on Hiura and has been for awhile that he is unable to hit pitches up in the strike zone and will get himself out.  I am not sure why teams have tried to pitch Hiura lower in the strike zone maybe these are just misses but teams should be just throwing high fastballs to Hiura and watch him strike out.  

The whiff% and K% out of the strike zone are as expected but the 60-100% for K% in the top part of the strike zone is extremely bad for a hitter.  Hiura's Whiff% is also really bad ranging from 50-69% in the upper part of the strike zone.  Teams are going to exploit this which is going to bring Hiura back to his 2021 season.  Hiura has made zero improvements to the upper strike zone.  This is one of the reasons why what Hiura is doing is not sustainable.  Once teams start pitching Hiura up in the zone more he is an extreme liability to the offense.  

All from: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/keston-hiura-669374?stats=statcast-r-zones-mlb

 

[Jopal78]

 

40 minutes ago, monty57 said:

Since this is a Hiura thread, I'll relate this to him. McCutcheon is on a one-year deal, so he's gone after the season. He certainly isn't hitting like someone who needs to be in the lineup every day. These two factors lead me to believe that McCutcheon is a prime candidate to lose some PAs going forward.

The "unsustainable" Hiura is continuing to sustain, even with limited playing time and a trip to AAA. At some point, he needs to start eating into other players' PAs. DH is the best place for Hiura, but his ability to play (to some degree) 1B, 2B and LF should allow Counsell to find some regular PAs for Hiura to see what he can do.

I was one of his biggest proponents early in the year, got frustrated at his lack of PT and figured the Brewers had given up on him, but since he didn't get traded and is still here, let him play. He could help out this year, and he can also prove one way or the other whether he is worth offering arby and paying him a little more to be on the roster next year. 

To the thoughts about Renfroe, having him and Hiura on the roster next year could save the team from having to go out and sign "another McCutcheon" next year. Renfroe would be the normal RF, but he could play some DH as we have plenty of other OFs. Hiura would be the normal DH, but could get PAs around the field when other players need a "day off" at DH.

I doubt the Brewers will go into the season with two rookie starting OFs, and I think we'll start a rookie in CF, so Renfroe is a nice "transition" player who can be the starter in RF until and unless someone else forces him out. Then, one of our current prospects will be the RF starter in 2024. Of course, if someone wants to really pay up in trade for Renfroe this offseason, I'd be fine with that. I just don't think that we'd just DFA him to save money. With Hader gone, Wong likely to be gone, and Turang and one of the CFs likely to be ready, we should have a some extra payroll room even with Renfroe on the roster. Even moreso if Hiura can be our DH for around $1M.

Hiura isn't going to be the DH for the Brewers in 2023 at a 1 million dollar salary. The league minimum next year is $720,000 and Hiura is arbitration eligible for the first time. He'd do better for himself going to the hearing than agreeing to that number and setting himself on such a low earnings trajectory.

I have no problem playing Hiura against RHP, he's been hot. I don't buy any nonsense that he's been used incorrectly, they have given him plenty of chances and he hasn't been able to fix his strike out issues. That being said, he may as well be in there against every RHP while 30% of his hits are going over the fence. If nothing else, it would be fun seeing if he will get to 30 homeruns before he has 100 hits on the season, and if he can stay under the 200 strikeouts in the process.  

[monty57]

12 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

 

Hiura isn't going to be the DH for the Brewers in 2023 at a 1 million dollar salary. The league minimum next year is $720,000 and Hiura is arbitration eligible for the first time. He'd do better for himself going to the hearing than agreeing to that number and setting himself on such a low earnings trajectory.

I have no problem playing Hiura against RHP, he's been hot. I don't buy any nonsense that he's been used incorrectly, they have given him plenty of chances and he hasn't been able to fix his strike out issues. That being said, he may as well be in there against every RHP while 30% of his hits are going over the fence. If nothing else, it would be fun seeing if he will get to 30 homeruns before he has 100 hits on the season, and if he can stay under the 200 strikeouts in the process.  

I figured around $1.25M in my spreadsheet, but I just rounded in the post because I didn't think it was all that meaningful. He's not going to be overly-expensive if they plan on using him, but he will be overly expensive if they plan on sitting him on the bench. In fact, I don't really see him as a good bench player because of his poor defense. They need to decide if he's a good enough hitter to DH, because if he's not, then he's not going to be an asset to the team.

I don't know why you say "nonsense" other than to degrade other posters. His starts prior to being sent down were almost exclusively against LHP, when he wasn't hitting LHP, but he was hitting well against RHP. Even though McCutcheon hadn't hit well against RHP since 2019, he got cemented into the DH role, including getting every start against RHP. 

I don't like strikeouts either, but Hiura's also walking at over a 10% clip, and he's barreling up balls when he makes contact. He is doing some things well after making his adjustments this past offseason, so I don't get the laser-like fixation on K rate, as if that is the only thing that matters. I'd like to see it brought down, and I think there is a good chance it will come down if he gets regular PAs vs RHP rather than getting most PAs against LHP, and only facing RHP when the high-K relievers into the game.

This tidbit is from MLB's own site: "K/9 rate tells us a lot, but it's important to note the difference between starters and relievers within the statistic. Because relievers generally pitch for such a short period of time and aren't as concerned about conserving pitches, they can throw with higher intensity for each batter. As a result, relief-pitcher K/9 numbers are generally higher than those of starting pitchers."

That seems to be pretty obvious, but it doesn't seem to be recognized in this thread. The amazing thing to me is that while put in a position to lose, Hiura has still been able to put up such good numbers against these hard-throwing RH relievers. 

Yes, the HR rate is unsustainably high, but so is the K rate. Give him some time, and he may just prove to be a decent MLB hitter... at least against right-handed pitching. If he can prove that, he will not only help this year's team, which seems to be in need of some help right now, but he will show that he can help them in the future. The upside is really good, while the downside is that past-his-prime McCutcheon will lose some PAs before leaving this offseason. Really, what's the harm?