Game Thread (10/04/2022): Diamondbacks (Gallen) at Brewers (Lauer) - 6:40 PM CDT

[Robocaller]

2 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Can Mitchell be a .300 hitter if he's in the majors for the full season in 2023? 

There are only 11 .300 qualified hitters in the majors this season.

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Can Mitchell be a .300 hitter if he's in the majors for the full season in 2023? 

I don't think so. He'll have another period where pitchers start to figure him out and he'll have to adjust. But he can certainly put up something in the .270-280 range with his speed. That would be such a boost to the offense whose top qualified hitter is currently batting .259. 

[Brewcrew82]

I am so sick of the strikeouts with RISP. Bring me Frelick and Turang. 

[jason21nl]

3 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I am so sick of the strikeouts with RISP. Bring me Frelick and Turang. 

Just someone that can put the damn bat on the ball.  

[Brewcrew82]

We're going to finished tied with the Phillies, and that will make me really sad...

[MrTPlush]

Mitchell has a BABIP of like .600. Let’s chill before thinking he can be anywhere near a .300 hitter any time soon. His career K% is also like 25% in the minors. So he may not help your reduction of K’s with RISP.

Frelick and Turang definitely have faired much better in that regard of K% though. Frelick’s is bonkers low at AAA this year.

[NBBrewFan]

18 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

There are only 11 .300 qualified hitters in the majors this season.

If you're going to answer your own questions, I'm not gonna play... ?

[NBBrewFan]

9 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

We're going to finished tied with the Phillies, and that will make me really sad...

Well I predicted several months ago that we were headed for the most Brewers end to the season - missing the playoffs by 1 game and having the best record of the non-playoff teams (i.e. the worst draft position of the "losers").

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, MrTPlush said:

Mitchell has a BABIP of like .600. Let’s chill before thinking he can be anywhere near a .300 hitter any time soon. His career K% is also like 25% in the minors. So he may not help your reduction of K’s with RISP.

Frelick and Turang definitely have faired much better in that regard of K% though. Frelick’s is bonkers low at AAA this year.

Yeah. Mitchell has the higher upside, but Frelick and Turang provide more insurance in terms of contact ability. Frelick's contact and K rates are absolutely insane. 

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, NBBrewFan said:

Well I predicted several months ago that we were headed for the most Brewers end to the season - missing the playoffs by 1 game and having the best record of the non-playoff teams (i.e. the worst draft position of the "losers").

Hey, we can still get the number one pick!!!

[Robocaller]

5 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Hey, we can still get the number one pick!!!

Is MLB going to have a draft lottery?

[NBBrewFan]

4 hits in the first 3 innings.  I think a few players are really excited about having a long winter vacation.

[BruisedCrew]

16 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

We're going to finished tied with the Phillies, and that will make me really sad...

It shouldn’t. The Phillies should be tanking these last two games to make sure they stay behind the Padres. I’d rather be in the bracket with the Cardinals and Braves than the Mets and Dodgers. 

It might be different if they were trying to win.

It makes me sad that the Brewers were sad for most of the season, not that they just missed getting into playoffs that they would have been out of quickly anyway. 

[Brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

It shouldn’t. The Phillies should be tanking these last two games to make sure they stay behind the Padres. I’d rather be in the bracket with the Cardinals and Braves than the Mets and Dodgers. 

It might be different if they were trying to win.

It makes me sad that the Brewers were sad for most of the season, not that they just missed getting into playoffs that they would have been out of quickly anyway. 

That may be you. But I'm a fan who would always rather have his favorite team in the postseason. Quite a few games this season where we were essentially in control and let it slip away, including several this past weekend. That will likely prove to be the difference. 

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Is MLB going to have a draft lottery?

Yes. Brewers currently have less than a quarter of a percentage point chance of winning the #1 pick. 

[Brewcrew82]

Lauer is generally a great #4 starter. Look forward to him hopefully shining in that role next season. 

[NBBrewFan]

Just now, Brewcrew82 said:

Yes. Brewers currently have less than a quarter of a percentage point chance of winning the #1 pick. 

So about our average World Series odds. 

[nate82]

Just now, Robocaller said:

Can Mitchell be a .300 hitter if he's in the majors for the full season in 2023? 

If he can cut down on the strike outs he should be around a .300 hitter with his speed.  Probably more like a .280 or .270 hitter.  Hopefully with the reduced strike outs he can get some more walks and have a higher OBP.  Mitchell does have the power and the hit tool to be a #3 hitter.  Which is what this team sorely needs.

[Robocaller]

7 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yes. Brewers currently have less than a quarter of a percentage point chance of winning the #1 pick. 

Tankathon has a simulator on their site. On the 17th try, I got the Brewers with the 2nd pick. Every other try they had the 18th.  Then 40 more tries, all ending with the 18th pick.

[NBBrewFan]

17 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Mitchell has a BABIP of like .600. Let’s chill before thinking he can be anywhere near a .300 hitter any time soon. His career K% is also like 25% in the minors. So he may not help your reduction of K’s with RISP.

Frelick and Turang definitely have faired much better in that regard of K% though. Frelick’s is bonkers low at AAA this year.

Yes I think we should be reasonable in our expectations, but BABIP in 60PA is about as useless as any stat.  Just too much noise for it to mean anything in such a small sample.

[Robocaller]

4 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Lauer is generally a great #4 starter. Look forward to him hopefully shining in that role next season. 

He's a pretty good #3 starter (even #2 starter), but we have an embarrassment of riches.

 

[NBBrewFan]

10 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Tankathon has a simulator on their site. On the 17th try, I got the Brewers with the 2nd pick. Every other try they had the 18th.  Then 40 more tries, all ending with the 18th pick.

30 tries #18 every time.

31st try #1 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

There's something wrong with their algorithm.  After the top Odds team pick you should have more movement of the remaining teams because their odds are much closer to each other than to the top 5-10.  I rarely saw any real change in the 10-18 range except on the 31st try when it looked like every team switched places.

[Brewcrew82]

World Series predictions, anyone? I've got Astros over Braves in 7....

[Robocaller]

28 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

30 tries #18 every time.

31st try #1 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

There's something wrong with their algorithm.  After the top Odds team pick you should have more movement of the remaining teams because their odds are much closer to each other than to the top 5-10.  I rarely saw any real change in the 10-18 range except on the 31st try when it looked like every team switched places.

Obviously if the Brewers picked first, (nearly) every team would pick in a different slot.

[Brewcrew82]

Great end to the season, Lauer. You will be an important part of next year's team.