Wisconsin Basketball 2022-23

[Brewcrew82]

10 minutes ago, Brewin said:

The Maryland collapse against PSU hurts the Badgers IMO. Now, they need to beat Minn tonight, followed by either Minn again/or OSU on Wednesday, and likely win their game on Thursday as well. The best they can do now for the B10 tourney is the 11 seed and they will be playing on Day 1.

This team has not shown the ability to string wins together since Nov/Dec so that could be a tall order...

 

If we can't beat MN twice in a row, then we simply don't deserve to make the tournament. As a fan, that gives me a nice clarity here. 

Plus, we need wins at this point as opposed to more Q1/Q2 wins, since we are already top 10 in the country in Q1/Q2 wins, yet just 3 games above .500. Playing MN twice in a row is as easy an opportunity as it will get to get those wins.

Ideal, realistic scenario to feel measurably comfortable on Selection Sunday :

W @ MN; W vs. MN (BTT); W vs. Rutgers (BTT)

That would put us at 19-14, 9-11 in the BIG with a top 30 SOS and 12-13 Q1/Q2 wins. 

[Frisbee Slider]

It has been three months since the Badgers beat a team ranked in the top 25 (at the time they played).

[MVP2110]

So they get Ohio St either way now on Wednesday thanks to Nebraska beating Iowa. Feels like they need to beat Minnesota & Ohio St at minimum 

[yourout]

Would be interesting to see Badgers point differential the final 3 minutes of games

[Brewcrew82]

Crean Gilmore, Ilver, and Hodges. It's the only way forward...

[Brewcrew82]

Wahl is embarrassing, too. 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Well, they're alive.

Not pretty in any way, but two wins away from being in good shape. Must beat OSU on Wednesday, as others have said, which, believe it or not, is a Q2 game. If they do that, I think they'd be in. At least, I'd put them at better than 50-50, which is a long way from safe.

Two wins at the tournament, and you'd feel pretty good.

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Well, they're alive.

Not pretty in any way, but two wins away from being in good shape. Must beat OSU on Wednesday, as others have said, which, believe it or not, is a Q2 game. If they do that, I think they'd be in. At least, I'd put them at better than 50-50, which is a long way from safe.

Two wins at the tournament, and you'd feel pretty good.

Yep. Win against OSU pretty much puts them in. Beat Iowa, and it's a done deal. Their quality/quantity of Q1/Q2 wins separates them. 

Speaking of which, Rutgers is in serious danger of missing the tournament now...

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Crean Gilmore, Ilver, and Hodges. It's the only way forward...

The only way Gilmore won't be on the team next year if he chooses to leave, which I doubt. I have no idea what the priorities of the other two are so I won't comment on them. I will say it wouldn't shock me, if he went to a mid-major, to see Ilver turn into a scorer sort of like Andy Van Vliet did at Wm & Mary.

[Jim French Stepstool]

So, if I heard right a full two-thirds of their games were decided by five points or less. That's some insane stuff.

Save for the Hepburn three I thought their late-game play was actually similar to what we've seen a number of times before. There WERE a couple of late turnovers that could've been critical. The difference was we played a team that hasn't exactly had late-game success themselves. And the defense really stood up late (If Rohde can start over Klesmit then I want him here because, on both ends, he'd be much better than I think he is. Maxs' defense against Battle was great).

I liked the assertiveness by Wahl & Crowl offensively. Of course it makes a difference when you aren't facing Edey, Dickinson, Omoruyi & the like.

Hepburn (& everyone else for that matter) CAN'T pick up the two early fouls like he did tonite. You can get around not having consistent punch off the bench but not if you hamstring yourself early in the game like that.

I don't criticize Gard much because frankly he doesn't deserve it. But I had a bone to pick tonite. Protecting the late lead & anticipating fouls you HAVE to run something to get the ball in Essegians' hands.

[Brewcrew82]

51 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

The only way Gilmore won't be on the team next year if he chooses to leave, which I doubt. I have no idea what the priorities of the other two are so I won't comment on them. I will say it wouldn't shock me, if he went to a mid-major, to see Ilver turn into a scorer sort of like Andy Van Vliet did at Wm & Mary.

I think Gard needs to have a conversation with him after the season. He’s been put in a tough spot for sure, but he’s just too big of a black hole on offense and is physically overwhelmed by most of the big men we play in conference. Thankfully, we have Gus coming  in, but we still could use another defensive/rebounding specialist with length, which is pretty much impossible so long as  Gilmore is taking up a scholarship. 

If Gard wants to keep his job, this is the sort of philosophical adjustment he needs to make. Yeah, it sucks, but this is the trade off of players getting a free transfer and NIL compensation. 

[Oxy]

5 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

If Gard wants to keep his job, this is the sort of philosophical adjustment he needs to make. Yeah, it sucks, but this is the trade off of players getting a free transfer and NIL compensation. 

What? NIL SHOULD basically make scholarship limits a thing of the past--IF you've got guys who either can contribute NOW OR develop enough to SIGNIFICANTLY contribute in the future.

Obviously, Gilmore is better than a couple of scholarship guys who aren't even 1st year guys...

If the staff thinks Hodges/Ilver can develop enough to become better than average B1G players...great...but it's far more likely they need to go the way of Matthew Mors and that guy from Michigan who transferred to a DII school who I've already forgotten the name of....

Gilmore has been a godsend considering his flexible "preferred walk-on" status...

[Samurai Bucky]

4 hours ago, Oxy said:

What? NIL SHOULD basically make scholarship limits a thing of the past--IF you've got guys who either can contribute NOW OR develop enough to SIGNIFICANTLY contribute in the future.

That is an interesting take on NIL vs. Scholarship limits.  Do you believe there should be no limit to scholarships in any sport as long as the boosters can pay the players?  How about smaller schools that don't have the financial backing of a school like Wisconsin?

[MVP2110]

Seems like most bracketology sites have Wisconsin as part of the last 4 in as of this morning. Feels like the Ohio St game could be make or break, if they win that'll give them another Q2 win which I think would get them in, a loss though certainly might knock them out. If they can beat Ohio St & Iowa then I think they are basically a lock to get in and might even get out of the first four

[stoutdude04]

15 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

Seems like most bracketology sites have Wisconsin as part of the last 4 in as of this morning. Feels like the Ohio St game could be make or break, if they win that'll give them another Q2 win which I think would get them in, a loss though certainly might knock them out. If they can beat Ohio St & Iowa then I think they are basically a lock to get in and might even get out of the first four

Would help if Michigan, PSU, and Rutgers all lose too...

[MVP2110]

44 minutes ago, stoutdude04 said:

Would help if Michigan, PSU, and Rutgers all lose too...

I definitely think they'd be in over Michigan unless Michigan makes a deep big ten run but Wisconsin has a better record and more high quality wins than Michigan. Wisconsin also swept Penn St and has more high quality wins than them as well although they are closer and a win or two in the Big Ten Tourney would help them

[Brewcrew82]

57 minutes ago, stoutdude04 said:

Would help if Michigan, PSU, and Rutgers all lose too...

Thankfully, at least one of those teams will be losing, as Michigan and Rutgers play each other in the 8 vs. 9 game. We should probably root for Michigan there as Michigan is in far worse shape than Rutgers. Hopefully the winner then gets trounced by Purdue. 

Unfortunately, PSU plays Illinois, who they swept this year. Though, they always say it's hard to beat a team three times in one season. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

14 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I think Gard needs to have a conversation with him after the season. He’s been put in a tough spot for sure, but he’s just too big of a black hole on offense and is physically overwhelmed by most of the big men we play in conference. Thankfully, we have Gus coming  in, but we still could use another defensive/rebounding specialist with length, which is pretty much impossible so long as  Gilmore is taking up a scholarship. 

If Gard wants to keep his job, this is the sort of philosophical adjustment he needs to make. Yeah, it sucks, but this is the trade off of players getting a free transfer and NIL compensation. 

As far as getting some kind of athletic big to transfer, my best guess is that if Wahl stays an extra year the chances of that are pretty slim. If he's done then the chances increase somewhat. Either way I doubt it would have anything to do with Gilmore. Plus, Gilmore originally walked on. There's nothing that says he can't stay on while returning to that status if it came to that (which I would doubt).

Here's the thing: There are programs that are going to take these rules & act like a revolving door, we can even make a good guess as to which ones they are. And if Gard doesn't embrace that, he'll be easy prey for those who want to criticize him for it & make him sound like he's out of touch, because they play games in the 60s & he looks like Mr Peebles. Throw in the excitement caused by Fickell & it becomes easier yet. But make no mistake; there are plenty of programs out there who are more or less going to go about things a lot more conservatively than others. Some will win; some won't. The same holds true for programs who push kids out the door. 

Gard has taken in transfers, and I'm sure will continue to be open to it. But let's not fix something that isn't broke. For all the frustrations this season, we all know how close this team came to winning 20 or more games & beating not one, not two, but three conference champs. What kept them from this was lack of consistency & execution (and rotten luck in a couple games) moreso than personnell IMO.

[Jim French Stepstool]

4 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Thankfully, at least one of those teams will be losing, as Michigan and Rutgers play each other in the 8 vs. 9 game. We should probably root for Michigan there as Michigan is in far worse shape than Rutgers. Hopefully the winner then gets trounced by Purdue. 

Unfortunately, PSU plays Illinois, who they swept this year. Though, they always say it's hard to beat a team three times in one season. 

I literally typed that I thought Illinois would take that matchup, then retracted it. I have no idea. I've never seen a season in the Big Ten like this one. Taking recent results, UW is a couple points worse than the league champs, & four points better than the doormat. Every coach in this league will need a long vacation after this grind.

[Brewcrew82]

9 hours ago, Oxy said:

What? NIL SHOULD basically make scholarship limits a thing of the past--IF you've got guys who either can contribute NOW OR develop enough to SIGNIFICANTLY contribute in the future.

Obviously, Gilmore is better than a couple of scholarship guys who aren't even 1st year guys...

If the staff thinks Hodges/Ilver can develop enough to become better than average B1G players...great...but it's far more likely they need to go the way of Matthew Mors and that guy from Michigan who transferred to a DII school who I've already forgotten the name of....

Gilmore has been a godsend considering his flexible "preferred walk-on" status...

On a top 4 BIG team, which should be the goal of this program every year, Gilmore shouldn't sniff the rotation. It's admirable what he's done considering he came in as a walk-on, but this season has amplified his severe limitations. On offense he's a complete black hole who clogs up the paint because he refuses to shoot (and misses horrifically on the rare occasions when he does decide to shoot), while on defense he's physically overwhelmed by the caliber of big men we have to regularly face in the BIG. Scholarships being tied down to walk-ons like Gilmore is what has gotten us into this mess and reversing it will go a long way towards getting us out. Especially with respect to next season when scholarship availability will be particularly scarce.

Assuming Wahl returns, "Creaning" Gilmore, Ilver, and Hodges, opens up 2-3 scholarships that can be used to upgrade the roster in the transfer portal. In particular, we need a defensive backup at C (along the lines of Vogt), a shooter at SF (Rohde?), and/or scoring combo guard. Fix two or so of those weaknesses, and this team is back to being a BIG title contender and a top 4 NCAA tournament seed, which is where we belong. 

[Brewcrew82]

50 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

As far as getting some kind of athletic big to transfer, my best guess is that if Wahl stays an extra year the chances of that are pretty slim. If he's done then the chances increase somewhat. Either way I doubt it would have anything to do with Gilmore. Plus, Gilmore originally walked on. There's nothing that says he can't stay on while returning to that status if it came to that (which I would doubt).

Here's the thing: There are programs that are going to take these rules & act like a revolving door, we can even make a good guess as to which ones they are. And if Gard doesn't embrace that, he'll be easy prey for those who want to criticize him for it & make him sound like he's out of touch, because they play games in the 60s & he looks like Mr Peebles. Throw in the excitement caused by Fickell & it becomes easier yet. But make no mistake; there are plenty of programs out there who are more or less going to go about things a lot more conservatively than others. Some will win; some won't. The same holds true for programs who push kids out the door. 

Gard has taken in transfers, and I'm sure will continue to be open to it. But let's not fix something that isn't broke. For all the frustrations this season, we all know how close this team came to winning 20 or more games & beating not one, not two, but three conference champs. What kept them from this was lack of consistency & execution (and rotten luck in a couple games) moreso than personnell IMO.

Gard's current approach is why we are where we are. Too many scholarships wasted on non-contributing/walk-on caliber players (Gilmore, Ilver, Hodges, Lindsey) so that there is virtually zero meaningful depth to complement the core 3/4. 

You say it "ain't broke". I disagree. Yes, Gard has done a good job coaching up the talent he has, and it's won us two BIG championships, but this has also limited our ceiling relative to the Bo Ryan-era and has been accentuated this season due to injuries and underperformance. We haven't made the Sweet 16 since 2017 and while tournament play often hinges on luck and other uncontrollable factors, it has also served to highlight our largely self-imposed talent shortage.

It's a new age of college basketball, with NIL and the transfer portal, that requires adaptation in order to sustain success. We don't have to lose our identity as a recruit and develop program, but Gard needs to do a better job of maximizing opportunities to improve the overall talent level of the team. That needs to start this offseason with politely encouraging certain players to enter the transfer portal and then capitalizing on potential talent upgrades. Gard is no Chryst in that he's a good in-game coach who's proven willing to adapt, and he'll get a nice assist from his 2023 recruiting class, but the slippage needs to stop now. Another season in which we enter the BIG Tournament as the 12th seed, and that's it for him. 

[LouisEly]

My understanding is that about 10 years ago the P5 conferences guaranteed 4-year scholarships so there is no more "Creaning".  There could be exceptions, such as if a walk-on was explicitly given a one-year scholarship because another scholarship player transferred, which could be the case with Gilmore.  But I don't think Ilver or Hodges can be pushed out the door.

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

 

It's a new age of college basketball, with NIL and the transfer portal, that requires adaptation in order to sustain success. We don't have to lose our identity as a recruit and develop program, but Gard needs to do a better job of maximizing opportunities to improve the overall talent level of the team. That needs to start this offseason with politely encouraging certain players to enter the transfer portal and then capitalizing on potential talent upgrades. Gard is no Chryst in that he's a good in-game coach who's proven willing to adapt, and he'll get a nice assist from his 2023 recruiting class, but the slippage needs to stop now. Another season in which we enter the BIG Tournament as the 12th seed, and that's it for him. 

We'll have to agree to dis regarding the "adaptation". They've added a number of players thru the portal. If you're looking for people to be asked/encouraged/pressured to leave I think you'll be in for disappointment. It certainly wouldn't surprise me if some left on their own, however. The philosophy Gard has with regards to this, however that takes shape, is as I said one that I'm sure many other successful coaches share-probably more than you think. 

Like you said, he's "willing to adapt". He's already shown that. I just wouldn't get too hung up on the "purging the roster" theory. The last couple seasons have seen additions. It'll continue to happen. Probably more organically though.

 

[patrickgpe]

If McIntosh was willing to fire Tony Granato, Gard is dead man walking. He clearly wants his guys in place. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

17 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

My understanding is that about 10 years ago the P5 conferences guaranteed 4-year scholarships so there is no more "Creaning".  There could be exceptions, such as if a walk-on was explicitly given a one-year scholarship because another scholarship player transferred, which could be the case with Gilmore.  But I don't think Ilver or Hodges can be pushed out the door.

I think you're right but I also suspect there are ways around it. Ways that you probably won't see at UW. And UW isn't on some island regarding that, either.

If someone being added caused Gilmore to go back to walk-on status, I can't speak for the kid but from everything I heard I would guess he'd stay and play w/o the scholly. And despite his shortcomings we'd be the better for it.