Corbin Burnes Trade Thread

[wibadgers23]

Since the chatter surrounding Corbin Burnes will be heating up going forward, I figured we should start a thread dedicated to Burnes trade proposals, Twitter rumors, etc. Have at it! Personally, I’m looking at teams like the Dodgers, Orioles, etc who can provide a big time pitching prospect and infield prospect. In no way am I excited to trade Burnes but that is just the reality, unfortunately. Should be an interesting offseason.

[Brewcrew82]

4 hours ago, wibadgers23 said:

Since the chatter surrounding Corbin Burnes will be heating up going forward, I figured we should start a thread dedicated to Burnes trade proposals, Twitter rumors, etc. Have at it! Personally, I’m looking at teams like the Dodgers, Orioles, etc who can provide a big time pitching prospect and infield prospect. In no way am I excited to trade Burnes but that is just the reality, unfortunately. Should be an interesting offseason.

In light of Stearns' comments about retaining the core and going for it, combined with the fact that the FO is still reeling from backlash to the Hader deal, I don't think a Burnes trade is particularly likely this offseason. Baseball insiders, such as Ken Rosenthal, have essentially said just as much. Would probably peg it at a 15-20% chance. Stearns will listen, as he always does (and should), but it will take prospective trade partners, such as the Jays, Orioles, and Dodgers, paying an absolute premium. Think of Moreno/Tiedemann, Rodriguez/Holliday, and Cartaya/Miller as starting points. 

[Brewcrew82]

FWIW, I would consider changing the name of the thread to the Burnes/Woodruff trade thread as Stearns will surely field calls for both of them. 

[fleehaw]

I’d add the Rangers to that list as well.  A package beginning with Jung and Brewers choice of Leiter or White is a nice start.

[Jpbrew86]

Just having fun on the trade simulator. We could also throw rowdy in. This seems to fill alot of holes on our roster with significantly cheaper contracts. 

[Brewcrew82]

In light of some troubling suggestions in today's Burnes article, here are the potential package outlines that I believe would potentially make it worthwhile for the Brewers to part with him this offseason: 

 

[Hopper]

Going by the numbers, the Brewers get shortchanged in all those deals.  I think there has to be more added, even some flyers, to make it worth what you are suggesting.

[Brewcrew82]

[Brewcrew82]

23 minutes ago, Hopper said:

Going by the numbers, the Brewers get shortchanged in all those deals.  I think there has to be more added, even some flyers, to make it worth what you are suggesting.

Yeah, you can fill in the gaps with flyers, if need be. But these are the basic trade structures that I'd have to see at minimum if I was Arnold. 

[Hopper]

45 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah, you can fill in the gaps with flyers, if need be. But these are the basic trade structures that I'd have to see at minimum if I was Arnold. 

That makes sense.

[SF70]

51 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah, you can fill in the gaps with flyers, if need be. But these are the basic trade structures that I'd have to see at minimum if I was Arnold. 

And these would be the types of offers Arnold would get if he shopped Burnes this winter. A prime-aged, bona-fide ace with 2 years of control — yeah, I’d say so.

Give me Miller, Stone & Vargas from the Dodgers. Makes too much sense from both teams point of view.

Dodgers would probably believe they could extend Burnes, they won’t have Buehler until ‘24, so this gives them the ace they need to pair with Urias & May for the postseason next year. Timing works for them better than waiting until ‘25 for Miller to develop.

Brewers need a big-armed starter that can rotation by ‘24 and develop enough by ‘25 into a mid-rotation or better starter, with potential for more by ‘26. Miller fits that bill. And Stone, while not quite the prospect of Miller, has potential to be a mid-rotation starter, and possibly by ‘25 as well. Vargas with his 60/65 hit-tool RH bat can be our 1B for the next 6/7 years.

 

[Brewcrew82]

59 minutes ago, SF70 said:

And these would be the types of offers Arnold would get if he shopped Burnes this winter. A prime-aged, bona-fide ace with 2 years of control — yeah, I’d say so.

Give me Miller, Stone & Vargas from the Dodgers. Makes too much sense from both teams point of view.

Dodgers would probably believe they could extend Burnes, they won’t have Buehler until ‘24, so this gives them the ace they need to pair with Urias & May for the postseason next year. Timing works for them better than waiting until ‘25 for Miller to develop.

Brewers need a big-armed starter that can rotation by ‘24 and develop enough by ‘25 into a mid-rotation or better starter, with potential for more by ‘26. Miller fits that bill. And Stone, while not quite the prospect of Miller, has potential to be a mid-rotation starter, and possibly by ‘25 as well. Vargas with his 60/65 hit-tool RH bat can be our 1B for the next 6/7 years.

 

My preference is as follows (for the deals I listed):

1. Orioles (w/ Rodriguez)

2. Blue Jays (w/ Moreno and Tiedemann)

3. Orioles (w/ Holliday)

4. Dodgers (w/ Vargas, Miller, and Pepiot)

5. Blue Jays (w/ Kirk and Tiedemann)

6. Dodgers (w/ Cartaya and Stone)

7. Rangers (w/ Jung, White, and Porter)

8. Mets (w/ Baty and Parada)

#1 is easy to me as, barring further health problems, Rodriguez is as close to a lock as a prospect can be to becoming one of the top aces in baseball. Basically, another Burnes, but for 6 seasons (and potentially more) during the height of the Chourio/Frelick era. Obviously, there are huge questions about whether Baltimore would actually include him, but if they did, it's a pretty easy choice along with a potential 3rd baseman of the future in Westburg.

#2 gives you the best combination of two talents, with Moreno ready to help the team contend right now and Tiedemann looking like a potential top pitching prospect in all of baseball. However, the inclusion of Moreno instead of Kirk would probably require the Brewers to part with Mitchell (maybe Ruiz?) value-wise, as the Jays need a CF to take the load off of Springer.

#3 would be absolutely huge for the franchise as it would give you a cornerstone infielder to pair with Chourio in the OF. Those two talents together is the stuff that World Series dreams are made of. And I think it's probably the most realistic deal compared to the above two. The only reason why it's not #1 or #2 for me is because of Hall, who I'm less than enamored with. But he's the only other high-level pitching prospect for the O's, and we absolutely need to get that kind of talent back for Burnes.

#4 is my preferred deal with LA as I absolutely love the offensive profile of Vargas, and he can be rotated between 3B and 1B, two key question marks on our roster right now. Tellez would then be able to spend more time at DH, where he can recoup a lot of the value he loses due to his defense. Miller obviously has a huge ceiling, while Pepiot has that elite fastball-changeup combo. 

#5 is a great deal, too. Kirk is an all-star catcher who helps the transition to a more contact-oriented offense, despite only being under control for 4 years. And obviously, Tiedemann, as I discussed, may have the most helium of any pitching prospect in the minors right now. 

#6 is very good, but Cartaya, unlike Moreno or Kirk, won't be ready for a little while. Though, I might like Stone more than I like Miller. Maybe not quite as high of an upside, but more of a certainty imo. 

#7 is where my excitement really starts to dampen. Jung is a great prospect and obviously we could really use a third baseman right now, but his performance this year in the minors and in the majors was a bit of a step down from last year, when he was looking like a guaranteed stud. Not quite as high on the Rangers' pitching prospects as the Dodgers' or Tiedemann, but White and Porter is still some great upside.

#8 is really getting to the limit of what I'd accept for Burnes. I like Baty quite a bit more than I do Jung. And Parada has huge potential with the bat. But the pitching options are a clear step down from all of the other teams. 

[UpandIn]

4 hours ago, SF70 said:

And these would be the types of offers Arnold would get if he shopped Burnes this winter. A prime-aged, bona-fide ace with 2 years of control — yeah, I’d say so.

Give me Miller, Stone & Vargas from the Dodgers. Makes too much sense from both teams point of view.

Dodgers would probably believe they could extend Burnes, they won’t have Buehler until ‘24, so this gives them the ace they need to pair with Urias & May for the postseason next year. Timing works for them better than waiting until ‘25 for Miller to develop.

Brewers need a big-armed starter that can rotation by ‘24 and develop enough by ‘25 into a mid-rotation or better starter, with potential for more by ‘26. Miller fits that bill. And Stone, while not quite the prospect of Miller, has potential to be a mid-rotation starter, and possibly by ‘25 as well. Vargas with his 60/65 hit-tool RH bat can be our 1B for the next 6/7 years.

 

I'd ask for Buehler as well. 

5 hours ago, Hopper said:

Going by the numbers, the Brewers get shortchanged in all those deals.  I think there has to be more added, even some flyers, to make it worth what you are suggesting.

Sure. When you're talking about a trade like this, I don't think you're going to end up within 1-4 in any trade. You're limiting yourself too much and it's not realistic. 

The Soto trade IIRF was 162 to 130 in favor of the Pads(maybe). 

 

It's gonna be fun to see how this plays out. The trade I really want to happen that does kinda line up on here, Vargas, Stone, Miller+...I don't think that's gonna be something the Dodgers will go for. They're run so well, I don't see them trading 18-24 years of players who are both MLB ready right now and who have high ceilings and low floors. For instance, if Stone or Pepiot don't hit as the aces you want them to, they're almost certainly going to be very good, valuable multi-inning relievers. 

And given the makeup of this organization right now, I would absolutely not be opposed to just compiling 7-8 pitchers who may not have 3 pitches or be able to be traditional workhorses and instead have a couple of guys who...like Freddy last year, you were happy to get 4 good innings out of, then bring in another guy who can give you 3-4 innings, go through the rotation 1 or 1.5 times, get to the end of your BP. 

I'm starting with a Vargas, Miller, Stone, Pepiot, Buehler trade for Burnes+...maybe a Garrett Mitchell. They could use that speed and CF defense, meanwhile if we have one good prospect I could see throwing in who I'm not totally sold on, it'd be Mitchell. 

 

[UpandIn]

10 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

My preference is as follows (for the deals I listed):

1. Orioles (w/ Rodriguez)

2. Blue Jays (w/ Moreno and Tiedemann)

3. Orioles (w/ Holliday)

4. Dodgers (w/ Vargas, Miller, and Pepiot)

5. Blue Jays (w/ Kirk and Tiedemann)

6. Dodgers (w/ Cartaya and Stone)

7. Rangers (w/ Jung, White, and Porter)

8. Mets (w/ Baty and Parada)

#1 is easy to me as, barring further health problems, Rodriguez is as close to a lock as a prospect can be to becoming one of the top aces in baseball. Basically, another Burnes, but for 6 seasons (and potentially more) during the height of the Chourio/Frelick era. Obviously, there are huge questions about whether Baltimore would actually include him, but if they did, it's a pretty easy choice along with a potential 3rd baseman of the future in Westburg.

#2 gives you the best combination of two talents, with Moreno ready to help the team contend right now and Tiedemann looking like a potential top pitching prospect in all of baseball. However, the inclusion of Moreno instead of Kirk would probably require the Brewers to part with Mitchell (maybe Ruiz?) value-wise, as the Jays need a CF to take the load off of Springer.

#3 would be absolutely huge for the franchise as it would give you a cornerstone infielder to pair with Chourio in the OF. Those two talents together is the stuff that World Series dreams are made of. And I think it's probably the most realistic deal compared to the above two. The only reason why it's not #1 or #2 for me is because of Hall, who I'm less than enamored with. But he's the only other high-level pitching prospect for the O's, and we absolutely need to get that kind of talent back for Burnes.

#4 is my preferred deal with LA as I absolutely love the offensive profile of Vargas, and he can be rotated between 3B and 1B, two key question marks on our roster right now. Tellez would then be able to spend more time at DH, where he can recoup a lot of the value he loses due to his defense. Miller obviously has a huge ceiling, while Pepiot has that elite fastball-changeup combo. 

#5 is a great deal, too. Kirk is an all-star catcher who helps the transition to a more contact-oriented offense, despite only being under control for 4 years. And obviously, Tiedemann, as I discussed, may have the most helium of any pitching prospect in the minors right now. 

#6 is very good, but Cartaya, unlike Moreno or Kirk, won't be ready for a little while. Though, I might like Stone more than I like Miller. Maybe not quite as high of an upside, but more of a certainty imo. 

#7 is where my excitement really starts to dampen. Jung is a great prospect and obviously we could really use a third baseman right now, but his performance this year in the minors and in the majors was a bit of a step down from last year, when he was looking like a guaranteed stud. Not quite as high on the Rangers' pitching prospects as the Dodgers' or Tiedemann, but White and Porter is still some great upside.

#8 is really getting to the limit of what I'd accept for Burnes. I like Baty quite a bit more than I do Jung. And Parada has huge potential with the bat. But the pitching options are a clear step down from all of the other teams. 

I'll throw in Devin Williams with Corbin Burnes to make a Baltimore deal work. 

Rodriguez
Holliday
Westburg
Felix Bautista

For Burnes
Williams(I have less and less confidence in Williams as his FB continues to drip from the upper 90s to the low 90s and he throws that Change the majority of the time). 

I'm willing to bet by the time this deal gets done, Brewers fans are going to be very disappointed. Not that teams aren't going to put a ton of value on Burnes, but this is a trade that's been thrown around for a while now. By the time a trade happens if it's not this off-season, a lot of the players we're talking about will be in the Big Leagues. I think it's more likely we get one blue chip prospect that's close to MLB ready and then a 2 more really good ones who have big upside, but are in maybe HiA, then a lottery ticket or something like that. 

Go back to the Zach Greinke trade and we gave up a top ~15 prospect(Escobar), a top ~75 prospect in Odorizzi and then a good probably underrated CF prospect in LoCain. 

Greinke was one year removed from 10.4 WAR, he was a enigmatic personality and IIRC he had a no trade clause, so it's not apples to apples, but...I think we end up closer to that than what most of us would like. 

 

---Again, the X factor is always that desperate and poorly run team that has a hot streak and decides to go all in. Is that the D-Backs this year?

One more thing, as I was just looking at teams that MIGHT be interested in an ace and willing to pay for it, I took a look at Boston's prospect lists. I had no recollection of this, but their top pitching prospect;
 

Quote

 

Bryan Mata;

Mata planned on signing with the Brewers in July 2015 before they backed out when he suffered a groin injury, and he inked with the Red Sox for $25,000 six months later.

 

 

[SF70]

2 hours ago, UpandIn said:

I'd ask for Buehler as well. 

Sure. When you're talking about a trade like this, I don't think you're going to end up within 1-4 in any trade. You're limiting yourself too much and it's not realistic. 

The Soto trade IIRF was 162 to 130 in favor of the Pads(maybe). 

 

It's gonna be fun to see how this plays out. The trade I really want to happen that does kinda line up on here, Vargas, Stone, Miller+...I don't think that's gonna be something the Dodgers will go for. They're run so well, I don't see them trading 18-24 years of players who are both MLB ready right now and who have high ceilings and low floors. For instance, if Stone or Pepiot don't hit as the aces you want them to, they're almost certainly going to be very good, valuable multi-inning relievers. 

And given the makeup of this organization right now, I would absolutely not be opposed to just complaining 7-8 pitchers who may not have 3 pitches or be able to be traditional workhorses and instead have a couple of guys who...like Freddy last year, you were happy to get 4 good innings out of, then bring in another guy who can give you 3-4 innings, go through the rotation 1 or 1.5 times, get to the end of your BP. 

I'm starting with a Vargas, Miller, Stone, Pepiot, Buehler trade for Burnes+...maybe a Garrett Mitchell. They could use that speed and CF defense, meanwhile if we have one good prospect I could see throwing in who I'm not totally sold on, it'd be Mitchell. 

 

I don’t think the Dodgers will want to wait for Miller & Stone to develop, especially now that Buehler is out until ‘24. Acquiring Burnes and extending him (which I’m guessing they have a leg-up vs most teams due to Burnes growing-up a Dodgers fan and being from LA), gives them an ace throughout his prime years.

Asking for Buehler plus the 3 prospects is just way too much. I’m good with Miller, Stone and Vargas.

[UpandIn]

43 minutes ago, SF70 said:

I don’t think the Dodgers will want to wait for Miller & Stone to develop, especially now that Buehler is out until ‘24. Acquiring Burnes and extending him (which I’m guessing they have a leg-up vs most teams due to Burnes growing-up a Dodgers fan and being from LA), gives them an ace throughout his prime years.

Asking for Buehler plus the 3 prospects is just way too much. I’m good with Miller, Stone and Vargas.

Buehler has very little trade value though. 

I think it's 4.4M excess value. 

It'd be like Burners if he was going to miss all years next year, but you're still going to pay him ~20+ million over those two years. 

As for Miller and Stone...I don't think they're going to have to wait very long. Both are big league right right now....and the Dodgers have Pepiot who's already thrown very well at the big league level. 

 

[SF70]

30 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Buehler has very little trade value though. 

I think it's 4.4M excess value. 

It'd be like Burners if he was going to miss all years next year, but you're still going to pay him ~20+ million over those two years. 

As for Miller and Stone...I don't think they're going to have to wait very long. Both are big league right right now....and the Dodgers have Pepiot who's already thrown very well at the big league level. 

 

Both have barely 20 AAA innings, so at least a half-season away if everything goes right, then 1-2 years of big-league development, so by ‘25?, then May might still need the year to build-up after his TJ and Buehler mid-season’24 or even ‘25 before he’s 100% back.

For all of those reasons, along with Gonsolin getting torched late in the year and postseason, the Dodgers seem really short of veteran frontline starters the next 2 seasons. 

6-8 years of Burnes solves their biggest weakness, imo. 

[Brewcrew82]

4 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Both have barely 20 AAA innings, so at least a half-season away if everything goes right, then 1-2 years of big-league development, so by ‘25?, then May might still need the year to build-up after his TJ and Buehler mid-season’24 or even ‘25 before he’s 100% back.

For all of those reasons, along with Gonsolin getting torched late in the year and postseason, the Dodgers seem really short of veteran frontline starters the next 2 seasons. 

6-8 years of Burnes solves their biggest weakness, imo. 

They also figure to be in the DeGrom, Verlander, and Rodon sweepstakes, FWIW. 

[SF70]

Just now, Brewcrew82 said:

They also figure to be in the DeGrom, Verlander, and Rodon sweepstakes, FWIW. 

They need one of that trio AND Burnes.

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, SF70 said:

They need one of that trio AND Burnes.

They definitely don't "need" it, especially since they're widely expected to resign Kershaw on another 1 year deal. That would mean a rotation of: DeGrom (or Verlander or Rodon), Urias, Kershaw, Gonsolin, and May, which is like, the best rotation in baseball. And doesn't even include Pepiot, Stone, or Miller, waiting in the wings. They may prefer to keep those guys instead of trading them. 

FWIW, I don't know where you're getting it from that Gonsolin got "torched" late in the year and in the postseason, as he had a 1.33 ERA from August on (including the postseason). Even in July, which was his worst month, he put up a 4.40 ERA, which isn't that bad and is similar to what Burnes did in August. 

[SF70]

5 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

They definitely don't "need" it, especially since they're widely expected to resign Kershaw on another 1 year deal. That would mean a rotation of: DeGrom (or Verlander or Rodon), Urias, Kershaw, Gonsolin, and May, which is like, the best rotation in baseball. And doesn't even include Pepiot, Stone, or Miller, waiting in the wings. They may prefer to keep those guys instead of trading them. 

FWIW, I don't know where you're getting it from that Gonsolin got "torched" late in the year and in the postseason, as he had a 1.33 ERA from August on (including the postseason). Even in July, which was his worst month, he put up a 4.40 ERA, which isn't that bad and is similar to what Burnes did in August. 

Couldn’t make it out of the second inning vs SD in their playoff series this season. Injured the month of September as well. 

Terrible postseason pitching from him  — 14.2 IP 15R 9.2 ERA.

Kershaw is another injury ready to happen. May might be ok, but also might need more time to get right from his TJ, and they will very likely limit his innings. 

I could see the LAD going hard after Rodon, but not Verlander at 40, especially with his WS stats and bidding vs Cohen for deGrom doesn’t seem Friedman-like.

The Dodgers do need Burnes because they are sick of hearing how great of a regular season team they are the last decade with only a pandemic WS.

[UpandIn]

45 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Both have barely 20 AAA innings, so at least a half-season away if everything goes right, then 1-2 years of big-league development, so by ‘25?, then May might still need the year to build-up after his TJ and Buehler mid-season’24 or even ‘25 before he’s 100% back.

For all of those reasons, along with Gonsolin getting torched late in the year and postseason, the Dodgers seem really short of veteran frontline starters the next 2 seasons. 

6-8 years of Burnes solves their biggest weakness, imo. 

Why at least that? Year after year we see the Dodgers take pitchers and get them to perform at a high level at the MLB level. 

I don't think they need "at least" half a regular season, certainly not 1-2 years of big league development.

Dustin May threw ~45 innings in AAA. 
Walker Buehler threw 36 AAA innings and a little over 100 total. 
Kershaw skipped AAA altogether outside of rehab assignments. 

If you dominate at AA and AAA and then come into camp and throw well...why send them back down?

All of those pitchers arrived earlier than Miller, Stone or Pepiot would...if they break camp with the MLB team...and I expect all three will. 
 

And Buehler mis-season 2024 or even 2025? He should be back by the end of next season, not 2 1/2 years. 

I'm not arguing that Burnes doesn't help them out immensely, but you're painting as dire a picture as humanly possible for a team that continually churns out once ace after another. 

Tyler Anderson;
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/anderty01.shtml
Andrew Heaney
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heanean01.shtml
 

 

[UpandIn]

37 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

They definitely don't "need" it, especially since they're widely expected to resign Kershaw on another 1 year deal. That would mean a rotation of: DeGrom (or Verlander or Rodon), Urias, Kershaw, Gonsolin, and May, which is like, the best rotation in baseball. And doesn't even include Pepiot, Stone, or Miller, waiting in the wings. They may prefer to keep those guys instead of trading them. 

FWIW, I don't know where you're getting it from that Gonsolin got "torched" late in the year and in the postseason, as he had a 1.33 ERA from August on (including the postseason). Even in July, which was his worst month, he put up a 4.40 ERA, which isn't that bad and is similar to what Burnes did in August. 

No, not when they're able to take a Tyler Anderson and shave 2-3 runs off his ERA or Heaney and shave ~4 runs off his. 

They won 111 games last year after losing Scherzer and then watching May and Buehler go down with TJ. 

They have 5 or 6 pitchers with plus stuff who are expected to either start the year in the big league club, or make their debut(VERY conservatively speaking). 

A 111 win team doesn't "need" to get 2 of the top 3-4 pitchers in baseball. 

[Robocaller]

8 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

In light of some troubling suggestions in today's Burnes article, here are the potential package outlines that I believe would potentially make it worthwhile for the Brewers to part with him this offseason: 

 

Why did you have the Brewers come out behind on every one of those trades? While I might question some of the trade values on BTV, Burnes isn't one of them.

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, SF70 said:

Couldn’t make it out of the second inning vs SD in their playoff series this season. Injured the month of September as well. 

Terrible postseason pitching from him  — 14.2 IP 15R 9.2 ERA.

Kershaw is another injury ready to happen. May might be ok, but also might need more time to get right from his TJ, and they will very likely limit his innings. 

I could see the LAD going hard after Rodon, but not Verlander at 40, especially with his WS stats and bidding vs Cohen for deGrom doesn’t seem Friedman-like.

The Dodgers do need Burnes because they are sick of hearing how great of a regular season team they are the last decade with only a pandemic WS.

I really don't think the Dodgers are going to remove Gonsolin from their rotation because he's pitched poorly in not even 15 postseason innings. He was injured late in the year, yes, but he certainly didn't get "torched" like you claim. And during the rest of the time he was a top 5 Cy Young candidate...

Kershaw is coming back and will throw around 130 sub 3.00 ERA innings. 

May was injured after 6 starts, but that was due to a sore back and had nothing to do with his TJ recovery. Indications are that he should be all systems go by spring training. He probably has the most potential of anyone in their rotation right now. 

Urias is really really good. Their ace. Good for 180 innings, sub 2.50 ERA. Not much else to be said about him.

A signing of one of the top 3 free agent pitchers immediately forms one of the best 1-2 punches in the game. Rodon or DeGrom especially. No team will be able to outbid them. 

And then they could easily sign one of the "lesser" free agent pitchers, like Bassitt, Quintana, Eovaldi, Anderson, etc. Pepiot, Miller, and Stone forming additional depth in the majors and at AAA. 

So, no, they don't "need Burnes".