Burnes to BAL proposal

[Harold Hutchison]

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-106412/

Brewers Get:

RHP Kyle Bradish

LHP DL Hall

3B/SS Jordan Westburg

SS Cadyn Grenier

3B/1B Coby Mayo

SS Joseph Ortiz

 

Orioles get:

RHP Corbin Burnes

SS Eduardo Garcia

OF Hedbert Perez

[Hopper]

This trade starts and ends with Grayson Rodriguez.  If he isn't included in any deal for Burnes, I'm not interested.

[Harold Hutchison]

DL Hall and Bradish - 2/5th of a rotation - aren't enough?

Plus a long-term 3B, a SS option should Adames prove too expensive, and an eventual replacement for Tellez at 1B?

[Brewcrew82]

11 minutes ago, Hopper said:

This trade starts and ends with Grayson Rodriguez.  If he isn't included in any deal for Burnes, I'm not interested.

Oh my god. I actually agree!

[Brewcrew82]

8 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

DL Hall and Bradish - 2/5th of a rotation - aren't enough?

Plus a long-term 3B, a SS option should Adames prove too expensive, and an eventual replacement for Tellez at 1B?

DL Hall is a prospect who lost luster this year with his combined performance in AAA and the majors. Great stuff, but significant control issues and also some health concerns. An increasing number of prospect evaluators see him as eventually ticketed for the bullpen. I personally don't want any part of him in a trade for Burnes.

As far as the other guys, I like Westburg, and included him in my payroll plan. But we really need to be shooting for premium prospects over quantity in a Burnes trade, especially on the pitching side of things, as that is the weakest part of our farm system ATM. The only names I want to see headlining a Burnes trade to Baltimore are Rodriguez OR Holiday. Otherwise, it's just not worth it. We'd be better off dealing him to Toronto for Moreno/Tiedemann or Los Angeles for Cartaya/Vargas/Miller/Stone. 

[Harold Hutchison]

1 minute ago, Brewcrew82 said:

DL Hall is a prospect who lost luster this year with his combined performance in AAA and the majors. Great stuff, but significant control issues and also some health concerns. An increasing number of prospect evaluators see him as eventually ticketed for the bullpen. I personally don't want any part of him in a trade for Burnes.

As far as the other guys, I like Westburg, and included him in my payroll plan. But we really need to be shooting for premium prospects over quantity in a Burnes trade, especially on the pitching side of things, as that is the weakest part of our farm system ATM. The only names I want to see headlining a Burnes trade to Baltimore are Rodriguez OR Holiday. Otherwise, it's just not worth it. We'd be better off dealing him to Toronto for Moreno/Tiedemann or Los Angeles for Cartaya/Vargas/Miller/Stone. 

Hall becomes a key bullpen piece. Cool.

Ortiz and Mayo look real good. Grenier has very good walk skills and versatility.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-106415/

I go for Rodriguez, Hall, Ortiz and Westburg in this other option. At that point, we boom or bust on Rodriguez.

OTOH, Bradish, Hall, and Westburg all slot into a 26-man roster, and you have Ortiz, Mayo and Grenier as solid bets to contribute.

[Robocaller]

Can you simplify this by taking out Garcia and Perez and whatever their value ads to the Orioles' contribution to the trade?

[Brewcrew82]

25 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

Hall becomes a key bullpen piece. Cool.

Ortiz and Mayo look real good. Grenier has very good walk skills and versatility.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-106415/

I go for Rodriguez, Hall, Ortiz and Westburg in this other option. At that point, we boom or bust on Rodriguez.

OTOH, Bradish, Hall, and Westburg all slot into a 26-man roster, and you have Ortiz, Mayo and Grenier as solid bets to contribute.

Again, for a premium talent such as Burnes, you really need to get premium talent in return. So, Rodriguez or Holliday as the headliner. We desperately need an infusion of impact arms in the pipeline. Obviously Holliday isn't an arm, but he's a #1 draft pick who could be a franchise cornerstone alongside Chourio. 

There's more uncertainty at a lower potential payoff imo with your proposed package. Are guys like Bradish, Grenier, or Ortiz, who are already in their mid-20s, really going to be needle-movers for this franchise? 

[Harold Hutchison]

29 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Can you simplify this by taking out Garcia and Perez and whatever their value ads to the Orioles' contribution to the trade?

Baseball Trade Values rejects if the deal is just Burnes.

[Harold Hutchison]

Now, here is another Burnes-to-Baltimore deal:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-106416/

Brewers get:

RHP Grayson Rodriguez

SS Jackson Holliday

3B/SS Jordan Westburg

Orioles get:

RHP Corbin Burnes

OF Hedbert Perez

SS Eduardo Garcia

IF Luis Urias

[Harold Hutchison]

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-106422/

Brewers get:

LHP DL Hall

RHP Grayson Rodriguez

SS/3B Jordan Westburg

SS Jackson Holliday

Orioles get:

RHP Corbin Burnes

IF Luis Urias

SS Eduardo Garcia

OF Hedbert Perez

[wiguy94]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Oh my god. I actually agree!

If the Orioles did ask for Burnes it would be managerial malpractice to say Rodriguez doesn’t have to be included. I still can’t see them trading Rodriguez though. Would be such a short sighted move from a team whose window is just starting to open. 

[Brewcrew82]

34 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

If the Orioles did ask for Burnes it would be managerial malpractice to say Rodriguez doesn’t have to be included. I still can’t see them trading Rodriguez though. Would be such a short sighted move from a team whose window is just starting to open. 

It'd have to be headlined by Rodriguez or Holliday for me to consider trading Burnes. DL Hall as the headliner doesn't do it for me. 

[Robocaller]

7 hours ago, clancyphile said:

Baseball Trade Values rejects if the deal is just Burnes.

That's simply not true. There are many trades that work with just Burnes, such as getting:
Rodriguez

Westburg

Bradish.

 

[UpandIn]

 

7 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Again, for a premium talent such as Burnes, you really need to get premium talent in return. So, Rodriguez or Holliday as the headliner. We desperately need an infusion of impact arms in the pipeline. Obviously Holliday isn't an arm, but he's a #1 draft pick who could be a franchise cornerstone alongside Chourio. 

There's more uncertainty at a lower potential payoff imo with your proposed package. Are guys like Bradish, Grenier, or Ortiz, who are already in their mid-20s, really going to be needle-movers for this franchise? 

Nope. 

I wouldn't trade Grayson for Burnes if it were the other way around, but it's not. Burnes is a Brewer, a Cy Young winner and 28. Gotta start with their top pitching prospect. 

I've consistently gone back to the Dodgers because they've got 2-3 pitching prospects who can throw in the upper 90s, plus we should be able to get a corner IFer with some upside.

Obviously I'd aim for the moon, but I'd take a really good corner IF prospect, AA or above and then 2-3 power arms(which is why I keep going back to the Dodgers). 

Vargas, Miller, Pepiot and maybe a guy like Frasso. 

 

 

-Totally ridiculous scenario, but hypothetically, Burnes+Woodruff+Williams for your pick of 8 prospects from the Dodgers or Baltimore farm systems...and maybe Renfroe since Baltimore would need a RFer. 

Not gonna happen, but...you'd have to do that, right? That haul, but the ROY picks we'd likely get for a few  of them(top 3 in ROY voting) and you'd have the #1 farm system running away, a team loaded with young talent and a full 6 year window...but you'd probably win 75 games next year. Not meant to be taken serious, just a random thought that popped into my head. 

[UpandIn]

28 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

That's simply not true. There are many trades that work with just Burnes, such as getting:
Rodriguez

Westburg

Bradish.

 

Deal. Send the papers to the league office, Burnes can write the "thank you to the fans of Milwaukee" goodbye, we could talk about the talent and our financial resources, piss off fans who don't care about prospects and then re-sign Woody and win the '25 WS when Grayson approximates deGrom level of dominance. 

[Harold Hutchison]

5 hours ago, UpandIn said:

 

Nope. 

I wouldn't trade Grayson for Burnes if it were the other way around, but it's not. Burnes is a Brewer, a Cy Young winner and 28. Gotta start with their top pitching prospect. 

I've consistently gone back to the Dodgers because they've got 2-3 pitching prospects who can throw in the upper 90s, plus we should be able to get a corner IFer with some upside.

Obviously I'd aim for the moon, but I'd take a really good corner IF prospect, AA or above and then 2-3 power arms(which is why I keep going back to the Dodgers). 

Vargas, Miller, Pepiot and maybe a guy like Frasso. 

 

 

-Totally ridiculous scenario, but hypothetically, Burnes+Woodruff+Williams for your pick of 8 prospects from the Dodgers or Baltimore farm systems...and maybe Renfroe since Baltimore would need a RFer. 

Not gonna happen, but...you'd have to do that, right? That haul, but the ROY picks we'd likely get for a few  of them(top 3 in ROY voting) and you'd have the #1 farm system running away, a team loaded with young talent and a full 6 year window...but you'd probably win 75 games next year. Not meant to be taken serious, just a random thought that popped into my head. 

I purposely went AL, mostly because I'd rather avoid facing Burnes in the playoffs. World Series is a different matter.

Me? I can take two arms, two high-end position prospects. The final iteration - Rodriguez, Hall, Westburg and Holliday for Burnes, Urias, Eduardo Garcia, and Hedbert Perez delivers that. Yeah, I rushed Holliday in my payroll projection, but that can be altered.

[UpandIn]

5 hours ago, clancyphile said:

I purposely went AL, mostly because I'd rather avoid facing Burnes in the playoffs. World Series is a different matter.

Me? I can take two arms, two high-end position prospects. The final iteration - Rodriguez, Hall, Westburg and Holliday for Burnes, Urias, Eduardo Garcia, and Hedbert Perez delivers that. Yeah, I rushed Holliday in my payroll projection, but that can be altered.

Baltimore is not doing that. That's 2 top 15 prospects, a top ~75 and then a pitcher Baltimore would be selling low on who could become an ace. And where is Urias playing for them? They don't want him to play SS and Gunnar is their 3B. Eduardo Garcia and Hedbert Perez aren't moving the needle for them. Those are a couple lottery tickets. 

And I don't care if it's the AL or NL. The Brewers need the most talent they can get. You don't worry about facing one pitcher when making a trade like this. 

Tell me this, are YOU trading 24 years of;
-The #1 pitching prospect who has a legit 3 pitch combo that are all plus pitches with a plus-plus FB that hits 102, a slider that's a plus pitch, a change that's a plus-plus pitch and who has outstanding command...coming off a year he dominated at AAA;

-The #2 pick in this past draft who's arleady the 13th overall rated prospect

-A 3B prospect who's offensive profile is similar to Joey Wiemer who draws a ton of walks and who hits for a lot of power(while not striking out too much). 

-A LHP prospect who's stock is down a bit, but who projects to be a late inning reliever IF he can't stay healthy and develop into a TOR starter(Which is still very possible

FOR

1-Corbin Burnes-Obviously the stud. Cy Young winner, but 2 years of team control. His virtues are self evident,. 
2-Luis Urias-Who doesn't have a role on this Baltimore team and ....kinda feels like he was included because his brother plays for Baltimore. AT BEST he replaces Mateo at SS...coming off a 2.3 WAR season while Mateo is coming off a 2.8 WAR season, is cheaper and...already on their roster. 
3-Hedbert Perez -A prospect that had a lot of helium last year, but coming off a year in A ball in which he hit .216/272/.393 and already isn't a great defender and doesn't have great speed. 
4-Eduardo Garcia...a player the Brewers will likely leave unprotected for the rule 5 draft this year and Baltimore could have for free.

 

Actually...lets turn this around.
The Brewers offer

Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer, and Misiorowski FOR....lets say Nolan Arenado, but we get him for 2 years, we only have to pay him 30M for those two years and then we get a Rule 5 eligible player, two minor league prospects who aren't top 350 prospects, and then an MLB ready player, but one who....really doesn't fit our lineup?

That Brewers package is not as strong as the Baltimore package you proposed and you have to pretend with Arenado in order to make it work, but assume you only get 2 years for him.

Would you make that trade?

 

Again, all for starting with Grayson Rodriguez as the starting point for Burnes. I just think Baltimore probably says they don't want to make that trade straight up given that their window is JUST starting to open, much less two more premier prospects for Burnes and very little else. 

[Jopal78]

32 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Baltimore is not doing that. That's 2 top 15 prospects, a top ~75 and then a pitcher Baltimore would be selling low on who could become an ace. And where is Urias playing for them? They don't want him to play SS and Gunnar is their 3B. Eduardo Garcia and Hedbert Perez aren't moving the needle for them. Those are a couple lottery tickets. 

And I don't care if it's the AL or NL. The Brewers need the most talent they can get. You don't worry about facing one pitcher when making a trade like this. 

Tell me this, are YOU trading 24 years of;
-The #1 pitching prospect who has a legit 3 pitch combo that are all plus pitches with a plus-plus FB that hits 102, a slider that's a plus pitch, a change that's a plus-plus pitch and who has outstanding command...coming off a year he dominated at AAA;

-The #2 pick in this past draft who's arleady the 13th overall rated prospect

-A 3B prospect who's offensive profile is similar to Joey Wiemer who draws a ton of walks and who hits for a lot of power(while not striking out too much). 

-A LHP prospect who's stock is down a bit, but who projects to be a late inning reliever IF he can't stay healthy and develop into a TOR starter(Which is still very possible

FOR

1-Corbin Burnes-Obviously the stud. Cy Young winner, but 2 years of team control. His virtues are self evident,. 
2-Luis Urias-Who doesn't have a role on this Baltimore team and ....kinda feels like he was included because his brother plays for Baltimore. AT BEST he replaces Mateo at SS...coming off a 2.3 WAR season while Mateo is coming off a 2.8 WAR season, is cheaper and...already on their roster. 
3-Hedbert Perez -A prospect that had a lot of helium last year, but coming off a year in A ball in which he hit .216/272/.393 and already isn't a great defender and doesn't have great speed. 
4-Eduardo Garcia...a player the Brewers will likely leave unprotected for the rule 5 draft this year and Baltimore could have for free.

 

Actually...lets turn this around.
The Brewers offer

Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer, and Misiorowski FOR....lets say Nolan Arenado, but we get him for 2 years, we only have to pay him 30M for those two years and then we get a Rule 5 eligible player, two minor league prospects who aren't top 350 prospects, and then an MLB ready player, but one who....really doesn't fit our lineup?

That Brewers package is not as strong as the Baltimore package you proposed and you have to pretend with Arenado in order to make it work, but assume you only get 2 years for him.

Would you make that trade?

 

Again, all for starting with Grayson Rodriguez as the starting point for Burnes. I just think Baltimore probably says they don't want to make that trade straight up given that their window is JUST starting to open, much less two more premier prospects for Burnes and very little else. 

Holy cow, I agree with you. Although I would add Baltimore probably isn't willing to trade any of their primo prospects for Corbin Burnes, which in turn would negate the point of trading him to Baltimore. 

[Hopper]

I HIGHLY doubt that Eduardo Garcia is left unprotected in the next Rule 5 draft.  If so, management needs to be taken to task HARD!

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Hopper said:

I HIGHLY doubt that Eduardo Garcia is left unprotected in the next Rule 5 draft.  If so, management needs to be taken to task HARD!

Garcia is rule 5 eligible this winter according to fangraphs. There's no reason he should be put on the 40 man right now. 

[brewmann04]

The only thing i hope the haul if the trade Corbin they get a better haul than they got for Josh.

[wiguy94]

3 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Garcia is rule 5 eligible this winter according to fangraphs. There's no reason he should be put on the 40 man right now. 

I'm also going to clarify this. Barring a big improvement and season next year he still shouldn't be put on the 40-man next offseason. In 480 PA this season Garcia slashed .259/.300/.407 with a 4.0% BB-rate and 33.8% K-rate. In his 108 PA at A+ he didn't draw a single walk. He needs to make substantial improvements to be deserving of a 40-man spot next offseason.

[Robocaller]

7 hours ago, brewmann04 said:

The only thing i hope the haul if the trade Corbin they get a better haul than they got for Josh.

Since an elite starting pitcher is more valuable than an elite closer, it seems a safe bet.

[UpandIn]

11 hours ago, Hopper said:

I HIGHLY doubt that Eduardo Garcia is left unprotected in the next Rule 5 draft.  If so, management needs to be taken to task HARD!

Garcia has played 20 games above LoA and hit .248./.269/.419 in those 20 games.

If you put his LoA numbers and he'd put those same numbers up at AA, he'd likely be a tough call...but I think it's going to be pretty hard to justify rostering him for 90 days...before you send him back down. 

Either way, he's not likely to be a consequential piece of a Corbin Burnes for 3 top 75 prospects trade(2 top 13 and then the 73rd pick).