Lauer to Front Office: "Time to put up or shut up"

[Brewcrew82]

Very interesting article in the JS by Brewers beat reporter Curt Hogg previewing the upcoming offseason, including some very direct quotes from Eric Lauer. Basically, said that it's time for the Brewers to "push the chips in" and go for a World Series right now with Corbin and Woody. Doesn't advocate for trading the farm away, but for the team to be aggressive in pushing its payroll. Can't say I disagree. IMO, it starts with making a serious run at extending these guys. 

 

[sveumrules]

OD Payroll 2018: $91M
Brewers win 96 games.

OD Payroll 2019: $123M
Brewers win 89 games.

OD Payroll 2021: $99M
Brewers win 95 games.

OD Payroll 2022: $132M
Brewers win 86 games.

The Brewers set a franchise record for payroll in two of the last four seasons, they've been spending. The last two times they pushed payroll over $100M before that they won 82 games (2014) and 68 games (2015).

I'd love for the Brewers to raise payroll, but it doesn't guarantee they will win more games. It might help them sell some tickets though.

[Brewcrew82]

26 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

OD Payroll 2018: $91M
Brewers win 96 games.

OD Payroll 2019: $123M
Brewers win 89 games.

OD Payroll 2021: $99M
Brewers win 95 games.

OD Payroll 2022: $132M
Brewers win 86 games.

The Brewers set a franchise record for payroll in two of the last four seasons, they've been spending. The last two times they pushed payroll over $100M before that they won 82 games (2014) and 68 games (2015).

I'd love for the Brewers to raise payroll, but it doesn't guarantee they will win more games. It might help them sell some tickets though.

The article emphasizes spending relative to the rest of the league. Relative to the rest of the league, the Brewers' payroll is down from what it has been in the past. In 2018, for example, the Brewers finished 12th in MLB in payroll. But over the last few years, they've been mired in the low 20s/high 10s. Of course, the Brewers will be spending a franchise record in payroll when spending league-wide has gone up so much. 

Also, the article talks about smart, targeted spending, not just spending for the sake of spending. The latter is how you end up with 2014/2015 scenarios (e.g. Garza, Lohse), while the former would be more in line with how they've operated since Stearns (e.g., Grandal, Moustakas). So, basically keep the Stearns philosophy but increase general the payroll limit. One way this would potentially play out is to extend Corbin Burnes. 

[sveumrules]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

The article emphasizes spending relative to the rest of the league. 

So, basically keep the Stearns philosophy but increase the payroll limit. One way this would potentially play out is to extend Corbin Burnes. 

I don't have an MJS subscription but do they accompany that comparison of spending relative to the rest of the league with how the Brewers revenues have kept pace with the rest of the league over that same time frame?

Extending Burnes wouldn't really be a "push the chips in" move though would it? He is already under team control for the immediate future. To me that implies a big move(s) to bring in players from outside the organization via trade (a catcher hopefully) and/or free agency (Abreu?). 

[Brock Beauchamp]

If the Brewers can run out $150m payroll for two seasons, do so. It will make their inevitable slide out of contention and an $80m payroll while they rebuild much more tolerable. 

[Brewcrew82]

22 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

I don't have an MJS subscription but do they accompany that comparison of spending relative to the rest of the league with how the Brewers revenues have kept pace with the rest of the league over that same time frame?

Extending Burnes wouldn't really be a "push the chips in" move though would it? He is already under team control for the immediate future. To me that implies a big move(s) to bring in players from outside the organization via trade (a catcher hopefully) and/or free agency (Abreu?). 

No they don't have a comparison of Brewers' revenues, because that is literally impossible when the team doesn't release that information. Though, it does point to the Braves' recent release to emphasize how incredibly profitable the business is, even for a small market team such as the Brewers. 

Extending Burnes isn't a "push the chips in move". That was sort of an addendum by me. Though, he did, in fact, point out Abreu as an example. I just believe that extending Burnes goes hand in hand with a commitment to winning, because if he isn't extended, the team will have no choice but to trade him sooner than later. 

[JimH5]

Of all the players to spout off about what the front office should do, Eric Lauer isn't the guy.  That kind of bluster is reserved for top talent foundational stars, not a guy who allowed 27 HR in 158.2 IP.

[brewmann04]

Lauer will be the next guy traded 

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

If the Brewers can run out $150m payroll for two seasons, do so. It will make their inevitable slide out of contention and an $80m payroll while they rebuild much more tolerable. 

I don't even think it needs to go there. There's a way to sign a guy like Jose Abreu or trade for a guy like Danny Jansen in an effort to win a World Series in the present without sacrificing this team's immediate or long-term future. Having guys like Chourio, Frelick, Quero, etc. really helps in that regard, whereas they didn't have those types of guys in 2014/2015. I think it moreso speaks against trading Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, etc. and making a half-hearted attempt to compete.  

[Brewcrew82]

4 minutes ago, JimH5 said:

Of all the players to spout off about what the front office should do, Eric Lauer isn't the guy.  That kind of bluster is reserved for top talent foundational stars, not a guy who allowed 27 HR in 158.2 IP.

He isn't wrong....And it's not like Lauer has been generally keeping us from winning games. He's been a big part of our success, and literally admitted that there's ways he and the rest of the team could have performed better. 

[jerichoholicninja]

"Smart, targeted spending"

So, basically the exact strategy that Stearns did his whole time here? If there's any players that it would be "smart" to target, almost certainly other teams will also be targeting that player and raise the price making it less "smart" to sign the player. I would also disagree that they have a "core" in place. They have a couple top of the rotation pitchers and a sometimes dominant reliever. The offense is still a mess of light hitting utility players and sluggers with more warts than a frog.

[JimH5]

You're right, and he's right that this is the window to compete.  Woodruff and Burnes are in their prime, etc.

But "put up or shut up" shouldn't be words that Lauer uses about anyone but himself.  It's chippy and finger-pointing.

[Brewcrew82]

18 hours ago, jerichoholicninja said:

"Smart, targeted spending"

So, basically the exact strategy that Stearns did his whole time here? If there's any players that it would be "smart" to target, almost certainly other teams will also be targeting that player and raise the price making it less "smart" to sign the player. I would also disagree that they have a "core" in place. They have a couple top of the rotation pitchers and a sometimes dominant reliever. The offense is still a mess of light hitting utility players and sluggers with more warts than a frog.

Don't you think Stearns maybe wishes he would have had more flexibility to add pieces during his time here, and that that constitutes at least some of the reason why he's likely headed to New York or Houston?

As for the core, I don't think you're giving them enough credit. What part of our rotation isn't World Series caliber? And Devin Williams isn't a "sometimes dominant reliever." He's been more dominant than Hader since 2020 and the 3rd best reliever in baseball by fWAR, not to mention ranking 98-100th percentile in all of the major Statcast metrics this past season. Adames is an elite SS. Renfroe and Yelich were both top 10 in WAR at their respective positions. While largely unproven, Mitchell/Frelick is as young and exciting of a CF tandem as it gets league-wide. If you figure out the catcher position and add a Bell or Abreu, you have a team that is pretty likely to make the playoffs and could go aways once there due to the starting pitching. 

[wiguy94]

I had heard about this article but wasn't able to read it because it was paywalled. Why am I not surprised that Lauer is the one who said this? He definitely has developed quite the taste for speaking out to the press (not that it is a bad thing but it has happened both here and San Diego)

[Brewcrew82]

To be fair to Lauer, the comment was made at the end of the season, so it's not new or anything. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

14 hours ago, JimH5 said:

You're right, and he's right that this is the window to compete.  Woodruff and Burnes are in their prime, etc.

But "put up or shut up" shouldn't be words that Lauer uses about anyone but himself.  It's chippy and finger-pointing.

Maybe some fingers need to be pointed. Glad to see someone taking a leadership role, because we haven't really seen it from guys like Yelich and Burnes. At least not publically. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

16 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I don't even think it needs to go there. There's a way to sign a guy like Jose Abreu or trade for a guy like Danny Jansen in an effort to win a World Series in the present without sacrificing this team's immediate or long-term future. Having guys like Chourio, Frelick, Quero, etc. really helps in that regard, whereas they didn't have those types of guys in 2014/2015. I think it moreso speaks against trading Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, etc. and making a half-hearted attempt to compete.  

That's entirely possible, though it will be a lot harder to accomplish that goal if they miss out on Abreu. He's older and should require fewer years than most other players in his class of hitting.

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

That's entirely possible, though it will be a lot harder to accomplish that goal if they miss out on Abreu. He's older and should require fewer years than most other players in his class of hitting.

Josh Bell is also available. The pieces are generally out there imo; the Brewers just have to dedicate themselves to actually getting them.

[Brock Beauchamp]

32 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Josh Bell is also available. The pieces are generally out there imo; the Brewers just have to dedicate themselves to actually getting them.

Yeah, Bell and Abreu are probably my top targets. 

[jay87shot]

Say the ownership pushes it up to 150 million and goes for it. Does that really have a chance against the teams spending 300 million or close to it. Would adding say Jose Abreu and not losing anyone really push this team much. Maybe we make the playoffs where we have a punchers chance but we are way off a team like the Dodgers, Braves, or Mets talent wise overall.

[MrTPlush]

17 hours ago, JimH5 said:

Of all the players to spout off about what the front office should do, Eric Lauer isn't the guy.  That kind of bluster is reserved for top talent foundational stars, not a guy who allowed 27 HR in 158.2 IP.

He went 11-7 and we were 17-12 in his starts. 

At least someone on the team cares about winning and is upset about losing. Not sure why you are making him out to be some bum...dude has been fantastic the last two years. He is one of our better players that is young/controllable right now.

[MrTPlush]

3 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Say the ownership pushes it up to 150 million and goes for it. Does that really have a chance against the teams spending 300 million or close to it. Would adding say Jose Abreu and not losing anyone really push this team much. Maybe we make the playoffs where we have a punchers chance but we are way off a team like the Dodgers, Braves, or Mets talent wise overall.

I mean....worked out fine for the Phillies.

[jay87shot]

Sure but the phillies had a payroll of 190+ million. They already had Harper, Scwarber, Realmuto, Castellanos, and Segura as big name/payroll guys in the lineup. The bigger market allowed them to bring in Syndergaard and improve. Our lineup and resources fall way short of the Phillies.

[Brock Beauchamp]

14 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Say the ownership pushes it up to 150 million and goes for it. Does that really have a chance against the teams spending 300 million or close to it. Would adding say Jose Abreu and not losing anyone really push this team much. Maybe we make the playoffs where we have a punchers chance but we are way off a team like the Dodgers, Braves, or Mets talent wise overall.

So were the Phillies.

If we're going to give up any fighting chance, why even watch the sport at all?

[MrTPlush]

Just now, jay87shot said:

Sure but the phillies had a payroll of 190+ million. They already had Harper, Scwarber, Realmuto, Castellanos, and Segura as big name/payroll guys in the lineup. The bigger market allowed them to bring in Syndergaard and improve. Our lineup and resources fall way short of the Phillies.

But their talent? Was their talent that far off of what we were this year...or more importantly, what we could technically build for next year? 

The Royals appeared in two world series on a tiny payroll and honestly their teams weren't that great. The Cardinals have a few trophies they got with pretty pedestrian talent teams. Rays made the WS recently (shortened season). The Nationals championship team was no better than us. There are plenty of teams winning with good, but not insanely talented teams.