Devinep’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint

[Devinep]

-Trade garret Mitchell for Danny Jansen

-trade Wiemer and Huira for Yandy Diaz

-trade Tyrone Taylor for AJ Puk (saw that on another offseason Plan).

-non-tender suter and Caratini

-re-sign Boxberger for 2 million

- get some utility SS (like Camaro) just to be depth/placeholder for a month to keep another year of control of Turang, who takes over the utility spot.

• C: Danny Jansen ($3.7M)
• 1B: Rowdy Tellez ($5.30M)
• 2B: Kolten Wong ($8.00M)
• 3B: Luis Urias ($4.30M)
• SS: Willy Adames ($9.20M)
• LF: Christian Yelich ($26.00M)
• CF: Sal Frelick ($0.70M)
• RF: Hunter Renfroe ($11.20M)
• DH: Rowdy Tellez ($5.3M)
• Bench OF: Esteury Ruiz ($0.70M)
• Utility: Mike Brosseau ($1.2M)
• Utility: Johan Camargo ($0.70M)
• Backup C: Pedro Severino ($0.70M)
• SP1: Corbin Burnes ($11.40M)
• SP2: Brandon Woodruff ($11.00M)
• SP3: Freddy Peralta ($3.50M)
• SP4: Eric Lauer ($5.20M)
• SP5: Adrian Hauser ($3.60M)
• CL: Devin Williams ($3.20M)
• RP: Luis Perdomo ($1.00M)
• RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M)
• RP: Brad Boxberger ($2M)
• RP: Hoby Milner ($1.10M)
• RP: AJ Puk ($.7M)
• RP: Aaron Ashby ($1.00M)
• RP: Trevor Gott ($1.40M)

Payroll is 4.54% under budget

[Hopper]

Personally, I wouldn't do Mitchell for Jansen, just wouldn't.  Ruiz would be a better trade option for me than Mitchell.

Not a chance in hell I'm giving up Wiemer in any trade for Yandy Diaz.  Diaz is just a meh player, and no better than anything else we currently have,  Just an average guy who happens to play in MLB and not even an average 3B on defense.  Nope, this trade is just crazy imo.

[Devinep]

With Mitchell for Jansen, it’s a hard pill to swallow but that’s what it would take for a catcher who hits like him. That, plus the OF surplus and the blue jay need for a lefty batter and to get Springer out of CF makes it make sense for both sides.  If it was an easy “yes” trade, it’s probably not even.

 

With regards to Diaz, he’s literally not just an average guy. Last year he had an OBP over 400 and OPS+ of 140. Those are both far and away better than any Brewer. And with his ugly D at 3B he’s make for a much better 1B/DH/occasional 3B than any current options. His hitting is what the team needs, and he’s controlllable so it would take a talent like Weimer to get him 

[UpandIn]

12 hours ago, Hopper said:

Personally, I wouldn't do Mitchell for Jansen, just wouldn't.  Ruiz would be a better trade option for me than Mitchell.

Not a chance in hell I'm giving up Wiemer in any trade for Yandy Diaz.  Diaz is just a meh player, and no better than anything else we currently have,  Just an average guy who happens to play in MLB and not even an average 3B on defense.  Nope, this trade is just crazy imo.

Yeah, I don't like giving up Mitchell for Jansen myself, but I think that's good value. And I'd be willing to trade Ruiz

Diaz for Wiemer? That VERY well may look like a steal in 2 years, but it could also be like trading Ken Phelps and his .400 OBP for Jay Buhner.

THAT is a bad deal. He's clearly better than what we currently have, but I'm not giving up Wiemer and Hiura. I mean...I suspect he'll be swapped out for a reliever or something anyway, as much as I'd like to give him another run and hope he can get it together, but Wiemer has Jay Buhner like traits. He's built like an OLB and he's got a cannon and he's produced at AAA. 

Diaz is the type of hitter we need, but not for Wiemer. I'm also not counting on Chourio as this lock just yet. We've got a nice group of OFers, but Frelick is the only player I think is close to a sure thing in this current OF.

In a year from now I'd be good with trading, but just because we have a surplus doesn't mean we HAVE to trade from it. 

[nate82]

5 hours ago, UpandIn said:

 

THAT is a bad deal. He's clearly better than what we currently have, but I'm not giving up Wiemer and Hiura. I mean...I suspect he'll be swapped out for a reliever or something anyway, as much as I'd like to give him another run and hope he can get it together, but Wiemer has Jay Buhner like traits. He's built like an OLB and he's got a cannon and he's produced at AAA. 

Wiemer is closer to Corey Hart or Geoff Jenkins than he is to Jay Buhner.  Athletically Wiemer is closer to Hart than the others.  Another player that Wiemer reminds me of is Sammy Sosa who wasn't all that bad in RF either.  I think Wiemer is a little bit more athletic than Sosa was when he was younger.  Yet another player closer to Wiemer would be Greg Vaughn.  

[Jopal78]

29 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Wiemer is closer to Corey Hart or Geoff Jenkins than he is to Jay Buhner.  Athletically Wiemer is closer to Hart than the others.  Another player that Wiemer reminds me of is Sammy Sosa who wasn't all that bad in RF either.  I think Wiemer is a little bit more athletic than Sosa was when he was younger.  Yet another player closer to Wiemer would be Greg Vaughn.  

I'm curious, have you seen Wiemer play? I haven't, but from the stat sheet he's listed as 6'5" and 215lbs, that is way bigger than Sosa, (6'0", 165 lbs), and an all together different body type than Greg Vaughn (6'0", 195 lbs), and is lithe compared to Corey Hart 6'6", 240 lbs. 

If not from in person observation, are your comparisons based on the minor league stat sheets and photos? Because in his first 2000 PAs in the major leagues Sammy Sosa had an OPS of .704, and wasn't really a good hitter in the minors either. Greg Vaughn was a terrific hitter in the minor leagues .295/.391/.569 which is significantly better than  Wiemer's  .274/.367/.506 and Vaughn was almost exclusively a left fielder. With Corey Hart, the minor league slash is similar .296/.355/.498, but Hart was seemingly a better athlete having played 1B, 3B, LF, CF and later RF as a farm hand. 

I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just wondering what lead you to draw the conclusions you did. 

[nate82]

10 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I'm curious, have you seen Wiemer play? I haven't, but from the stat sheet he's listed as 6'5" and 215lbs, that is way bigger than Sosa, (6'0", 165 lbs), and an all together different body type than Greg Vaughn (6'0", 195 lbs), and is lithe compared to Corey Hart 6'6", 240 lbs. 

I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just wondering what lead you to draw the conclusions you did. 

Athletically they are similar players not a one to one comparison but they are very close athletically.  I don't really look at height and weight when comparing players nor do I look at their stats.  It is mostly off of scouting reports, I have been able to collect some scouting reports on players usually just hand written notes or even an official scouting report here and there from some friends and through other means.  This is what I compare with what I am seeing of the player in question.  Hart is probably the closest you can get to a one to one comparison of Wiemer.  Both are very athletic as they could both play all three OF positions.  Hart played less than 100 games at 3B.  I don't think he ever really fit there and it was mostly at high A with a few games in the AFL.  1B is not really an athletic position so I don't really see that as a plus for Hart.  Athletically Hart is the closest to Wiemer but Sosa and Vaughn were no slouches when they were younger athletically.  

It is basically just looking at the players scouting reports and determining what players are comparable.  It doesn't have to be an exact match and they don't have to equal each other statistically or physically.  They just need to be in the same group which I gave a few examples of.  

[Robocaller]

On 11/13/2022 at 8:36 AM, Devinep said:

-trade Wiemer and Huira for Yandy Diaz

 

You don't list Diaz on the roster. So, we trade for him and he's soon killed in an automobile accident?

 

[Robocaller]

On 11/13/2022 at 1:56 PM, Hopper said:

Personally, I wouldn't do Mitchell for Jansen, just wouldn't.  Ruiz would be a better trade option for me than Mitchell.

Even Mitchell is a significant underpay. By BTV, we'd have to do something like Frelick and Moore.

[nate82]

The most I would go for Jansen would be a Ruiz, Valerio and one or two lower minor league players.  I think the Blue Jays will be looking to get MLB ready SP and a CF so maybe Small and Ruiz for Jansen instead of Ruiz, Valerio and others.  That is as high as I would go for Jansen which probably doesn't get you close enough for Jansen.  

The BTV value is to high for Jansen as he only has 2 years of control left and last year was his big breakout offensively.  While he is better than Narvaez defensively when the Brewers traded for him and Narvaez had 3-years of control and he was only valued at 12.  I think Jansen's true value is closer to 15-18 than it is to 26-30.

I still don't want to give up Mitchell in a trade for a catcher who will only be with the team for 2-years and last year was his best offensively.  Not to mention Jansen has only played one full season in MLB and that was in 2019 where he was absolutely awful offensively.  I am not sure I buy that Jansen is a good catcher.  He had a great year last year and maybe his on the up but he may not be an everyday catcher.  It looks like he does better when he is not the everyday catcher.  

I don't want to trade Mitchell for someone who could be a 70-85 wRC+ catcher no matter how good they are defensively.  If the Blue Jays would take Ruiz and Small or Ruiz, Valerio plus then sure but if the deal needs Mitchell I would be walking away from the deal.  Let someone else pay that.  

 

[Devinep]

1 hour ago, Robocaller said:

You don't list Diaz on the roster. So, we trade for him and he's soon killed in an automobile accident?

 

Lol whoops I moved Rowdy to DH and forgot to put Diaz at 1B

[UpandIn]

6 hours ago, nate82 said:

Wiemer is closer to Corey Hart or Geoff Jenkins than he is to Jay Buhner.  Athletically Wiemer is closer to Hart than the others.  Another player that Wiemer reminds me of is Sammy Sosa who wasn't all that bad in RF either.  I think Wiemer is a little bit more athletic than Sosa was when he was younger.  Yet another player closer to Wiemer would be Greg Vaughn.  

I guess I can see the Hart comp...they're both tall, athletic at the same point, but Wiemer's power and arm make Buhner a more accurate comp IMO. But tall, lanky, sure. I can see Hart. But Sosa, Vaughn and Jenkins(especially a LHed Jenkins)? What part of their profiles are similar? They all had power I guess, but obviously so too did Buhner. 

Wiemer is 6'5 215, has a 70 arm, 60 power, some swing and miss. Sosa was 6' 165 coming into the big leagues(before the steroids). 
Buhner had one of the strongest arms from RF I've seen...none of those players are even close to Wiemer's defensive profile.
Offensively, a guy who has a questionable hit tool, but big power, good plate discipline and strikes out a bit, that kinda fits a lot of players.  

Hunter Pence is a comp used for Wiemer and Buhner was a comp used for Pence. Obviously none are exact, but you're talking about 3 guys who are about 6 feet and bear little resemblance to Wiemer's athletic attributes. 

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, Robocaller said:

Even Mitchell is a significant underpay. By BTV, we'd have to do something like Frelick and Moore.

BTV has Tyrone Taylor similar to Wiemer per BTV. 

It's obviously not perfect, but that's a pretty significant gap in value...IMO. I suspect most Brewers fans would much rather see Taylor traded than Wiemer.  

[nate82]

15 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

I guess I can see the Hart comp...they're both tall, athletic at the same point, but Wiemer's power and arm make Buhner a more accurate comp IMO. But tall, lanky, sure. I can see Hart. But Sosa, Vaughn and Jenkins(especially a LHed Jenkins)? What part of their profiles are similar? They all had power I guess, but obviously so too did Buhner. 

Wiemer is 6'5 215, has a 70 arm, 60 power, some swing and miss. Sosa was 6' 165 coming into the big leagues(before the steroids). 
Buhner had one of the strongest arms from RF I've seen...none of those players are even close to Wiemer's defensive profile.
Offensively, a guy who has a questionable hit tool, but big power, good plate discipline and strikes out a bit, that kinda fits a lot of players.  

Hunter Pence is a comp used for Wiemer and Buhner was a comp used for Pence. Obviously none are exact, but you're talking about 3 guys who are about 6 feet and bear little resemblance to Wiemer's athletic attributes. 

Not sure why you are so hung up on the physical attributes when I have said they are not what I am looking at when comparing them.  

[UpandIn]

7 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Not sure why you are so hung up on the physical attributes when I have said they are not what I am looking at when comparing them.  

LOL...probably because that's how you compare prospects, by their physical attributes. Speed, power, their hit tool, build. These are the ways scouts compare players.

It was also the basis for MY comparison when you disagreed and then compared Wiemer to Hart. That had nothing to do with the fact that they were both tall, lanky OFers? Of course it did. 

But you don't use stats, you don't use physical attributes...you mix in left handed hitters with right handed hitters. How DO you actually draw comparisons other than scouting reports?

[nate82]

Just now, UpandIn said:

LOL...probably because that's how you compare prospects, by their physical attributes. Speed, power, their hit tool, build. These are the ways scouts compare players.

It was also the basis for MY comparison when you disagreed and then compared Wiemer to Hart. That had nothing to do with the fact that they were both tall, lanky OFers? Of course it did. 

But you don't use stats, you don't use physical attributes...you mix in left handed hitters with right handed hitters. How DO you actually draw comparisons other than scouting reports?

Physical attributes are weight and height.  Athletic attributes are power, speed, quickness and skill (bat to ball, repeating delivery, etc.).  There is a difference between physical attributes and athletic attributes.  

No Hart being tall and Wiemer being tall had nothing to do with the comparison.  It is the comparison of the athletic attributes like speed, power, arm strength and others which matches Wiemer very closely.  When you look at a young Jenkins there is a lot of comparison between him and Wiemer.  What side of the plate one hits from is irrelevant when looking at their athletic attributes.  

[UpandIn]

4 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Physical attributes are weight and height.  Athletic attributes are power, speed, quickness and skill (bat to ball, repeating delivery, etc.).  There is a difference between physical attributes and athletic attributes.  

No Hart being tall and Wiemer being tall had nothing to do with the comparison.  It is the comparison of the athletic attributes like speed, power, arm strength and others which matches Wiemer very closely.  When you look at a young Jenkins there is a lot of comparison between him and Wiemer.  What side of the plate one hits from is irrelevant when looking at their athletic attributes.  

So athletic attributes aren't physical attributes to you? 

If a player is 6'7 vs 5'11, you don't consider that at all?

That's...a strange take and contrary to most definitions, but alright. 

 

 

[Hopper]

3 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Even Mitchell is a significant underpay. By BTV, we'd have to do something like Frelick and Moore.

gross

[Devinep]

16 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Yeah, I don't like giving up Mitchell for Jansen myself, but I think that's good value. And I'd be willing to trade Ruiz

Diaz for Wiemer? That VERY well may look like a steal in 2 years, but it could also be like trading Ken Phelps and his .400 OBP for Jay Buhner.

THAT is a bad deal. He's clearly better than what we currently have, but I'm not giving up Wiemer and Hiura. I mean...I suspect he'll be swapped out for a reliever or something anyway, as much as I'd like to give him another run and hope he can get it together, but Wiemer has Jay Buhner like traits. He's built like an OLB and he's got a cannon and he's produced at AAA. 

Diaz is the type of hitter we need, but not for Wiemer. I'm also not counting on Chourio as this lock just yet. We've got a nice group of OFers, but Frelick is the only player I think is close to a sure thing in this current OF.

In a year from now I'd be good with trading, but just because we have a surplus doesn't mean we HAVE to trade from it. 

And likewise, just because the Brewers don’t have to trade from their OF surplus doesn’t mean they shouldn’t.  Just because Diaz for Weiner theoretically could end up not working out doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be done, since that applies to basically any trade.  

On a team that doesn’t spend, I couldn’t just fill the bike with Abreau like I would like to. Since money isn’t their resource to get talent, what is? A surplus of OF. 

[Robocaller]

10 hours ago, nate82 said:

Physical attributes are weight and height.  Athletic attributes are power, speed, quickness and skill (bat to ball, repeating delivery, etc.).  There is a difference between physical attributes and athletic attributes.  

No Hart being tall and Wiemer being tall had nothing to do with the comparison.  It is the comparison of the athletic attributes like speed, power, arm strength and others which matches Wiemer very closely.  When you look at a young Jenkins there is a lot of comparison between him and Wiemer.  What side of the plate one hits from is irrelevant when looking at their athletic attributes.  

Hart is as good of a comparable for Wiemer as anyone I can think of. I just hope Wiemer has a longer plateau where he's top notch.

Buhner is a terrible comp. Buhner had 6 SB and 24 CS for his career.

 

[Robocaller]

10 hours ago, UpandIn said:

So athletic attributes aren't physical attributes to you? 

If a player is 6'7 vs 5'11, you don't consider that at all?

That's...a strange take and contrary to most definitions, but alright. 

 

 

He thought Randy Johnson's height was a typo and that he was only 5'10".

 

[Robocaller]

11 hours ago, UpandIn said:

LOL...probably because that's how you compare prospects, by their physical attributes. Speed, power, their hit tool, build. These are the ways scouts compare players.

It was also the basis for MY comparison when you disagreed and then compared Wiemer to Hart. That had nothing to do with the fact that they were both tall, lanky OFers? Of course it did. 

But you don't use stats, you don't use physical attributes...you mix in left handed hitters with right handed hitters. How DO you actually draw comparisons other than scouting reports?

He asks Miss Cleo how they'll turn out.

[UpandIn]

23 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Hart is as good of a comparable for Wiemer as anyone I can think of. I just hope Wiemer has a longer plateau where he's top notch.

Buhner is a terrible comp. Buhner had 6 SB and 24 CS for his career.

 

As I said, he doesn't have his speed, but they're similar in every other area scouts grade. Hit tool, power, arm, field...both guys who walk at a high rate, also a lot of swing and miss.

There are almost no perfect comps. Maybe Hunter Pence is a better one, but Buhner was traded for a guy who put up a .400 OBP in limited action and looked similar to Diaz before becoming a fixture in RF for the Mariners for almost 15 years, so I went with him.

Hart, Pence...fine. But Geoff Jenkins? Also, I don't even know how to begin to use Sammy Sosa as a comp. He's like a cartoon character who came up as a shorter, skinny, 160LB OFer and then his head swelled about a quarter inch less than Bonds.

 

[UpandIn]

On 11/14/2022 at 8:11 PM, Devinep said:

And likewise, just because the Brewers don’t have to trade from their OF surplus doesn’t mean they shouldn’t.  Just because Diaz for Weiner theoretically could end up not working out doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be done, since that applies to basically any trade.  

On a team that doesn’t spend, I couldn’t just fill the bike with Abreau like I would like to. Since money isn’t their resource to get talent, what is? A surplus of OF. 

I didn't say they shouldn't. I said they shouldn't trade Wiemer for Diaz. 6 years of Wiemer and his upside vs a 1B/DH. We're gonna need a couple of RHed hitters in this lineup, and preferably a few who hit for power.

And you could thrown Abreu in there. He's not re-signing in Chicago(at least the South Side, rumor is the team on the North side my want him...for some reason). 

He's the perfect fit...revenues are up, no better time than to go get a guy who fits this lineup perfectly than right now when the Brewers are talking about being all in. Maybe he wants to stay in Chicago and it's not an option.

 

Anyway, this excercise is you post a proposal, people comment on it. I commented I wouldn't trade that much for Diaz. 2 years of Diaz. Have to hope he maintains his play from last year which was by far a career year...and like I said, he's the type of hitter we could use, I just wouldn't do it for a guy like Wiemer who could fill in in any OF spot, DH...and probably 1B at some point in the future for a guy who hits for very little power while being primarily a 1B/DH. 

[Devinep]

9 hours ago, UpandIn said:

I didn't say they shouldn't. I said they shouldn't trade Wiemer for Diaz. 6 years of Wiemer and his upside vs a 1B/DH. We're gonna need a couple of RHed hitters in this lineup, and preferably a few who hit for power.

And you could thrown Abreu in there. He's not re-signing in Chicago(at least the South Side, rumor is the team on the North side my want him...for some reason). 

He's the perfect fit...revenues are up, no better time than to go get a guy who fits this lineup perfectly than right now when the Brewers are talking about being all in. Maybe he wants to stay in Chicago and it's not an option.

 

Anyway, this excercise is you post a proposal, people comment on it. I commented I wouldn't trade that much for Diaz. 2 years of Diaz. Have to hope he maintains his play from last year which was by far a career year...and like I said, he's the type of hitter we could use, I just wouldn't do it for a guy like Wiemer who could fill in in any OF spot, DH...and probably 1B at some point in the future for a guy who hits for very little power while being primarily a 1B/DH. 

I wholeheartedly agree with you that the Brewers should go through FA rather than trade. My pause there is that I don’t believe They’d spend enough to get Abreu (who I prefer they get).

id actually agree after thinking about it more than Wiemer for Yandy straight up would not be enough. He still makes sense as a target, though.  But I do hope they’re able to use fee agency to save taking too much from the farm system. I also hope they don’t come back with the same basic roster next year