Joey Wiemer

[Jake McKibbin]

 

 

So this is probably one of the prospects that excites me the most, due to his very large ceiling and the improvements he made at Nashville, but also aware that while I udnerstand talks about swings on a physics level, its not my forte

 

Suggested that his biggest weakness is his SO rate, at Nashville in August he had a 27.6% (24/87) and only 6 walks in that time. In September, over 63 AB's, his SO rate was 15.9%, Striking out just 10 times in comparison with 15 walks. He's adjusted to a toe tap earlier in the year to allow more time to get to the ball, which I'm guessing takes a little getting used to, and although  small sample size makes me think there's maybe a higher floor here than we realise

 

His defense looks promising, a quick runner on the basepaths with above average speed (albeit no Garrett Mitchell) but his cannon of an arms is astounding, look how quickly this admittedly blurry video gets his throw to home. Runner is out by 30 ft! 

Then you've got what the scouts say about the plus side of his bat, with lightning fast hands to balance out his larger than average swing, and monstrous power to go with it. He's had multiple 30/30 seasons, with great senses on the base paths

Is this not a potential genuine 5 tool prospect? Maybe the hit tool alone is just slightly above average or average, but he has developed a good walk rate and a very nice OBP, with ridiculous power and strong stealing abilities, offensively seems to have a hell of a ceiling

 

Question is, am I missing something?

 

[CheezWizHed]

From what I've read, his bat mechanics have scouts concerned. More than just his K rate in the minors, the thought is that MLB pitchers will accentuate the issue.  The flip side is that scouting is scouting and there are always exceptions.  He seems to have the athleticism to be an exception too. 

[Jake McKibbin]

---

Erik Longenhagen has just posted this on fangraphs

"Wiemer has a rare size/athleticism combination and wields an elaborate swing that produces huge pull-side power. He crushes mistakes, and has 48 career bombs in about a season-and-a-half’s worth of pro games. While his peak exit velocities have long been tops among his peers, college and pro, he didn’t really start launching homers until after he was drafted, when it appears his swing and approach changed. Constant max-effort hacking often leads to lots of strikeouts, but Wiemer had mostly kept his Ks in check until 2022, when he punched out 30% of the time at Double-A Biloxi. His strikeout rate improved upon promotion to Triple-A, albeit in a smaller sample. Look under the hood and there is cause for concern. Wiemer often swings inside pitches on the outer third of the strike zone, and his in-zone swing and miss rates are on par with the bottom handful of big league outfielders who saw at least 300 PA in 2022, among names like Joey Gallo and Christopher Morel. While not quite as mountainous as skill set-cousins Gallo or Jorge Soler, Wiemer’s size and physicality set him apart from other players, even big leaguers, and he seems likely to get to power in big league games by virtue of how much raw thump he has. He projects as a slugging five- or six-hole hitter in a typical contending lineup, with contact issues that will create some whiff-prone stretches and significant year-to-year variance."

 

I'm guessing most major leaguers have some holes in their swings? Obviously this is much better exploited by Majors pitching, and this does sound like a sizeable one, like a prime target for a good slider down and away

However given the improvements at Triple A, namely in strikeout and Walk %, you'd wonder if towards the latter part of the season did he start to cover the plate better and as a result develop more solidity. If someone had a gap that large you'd expect Triple A pitchers to get better and better at dismantling him at the plate

Where would people usually find these more i depth stats about minor leaguers?

[MrTPlush]

Weimer's jump from A+ to AA was really concerning. However, when he got promoted AAA he had his lowest K-rate of his career and his highest walk rate since Single A. Also recorded his best SB % at a bonkers 83%. 

If he is anywhere near his AAA numbers next year and doesn't regress back to AA type numbers he has massive potential. 

[Spencer Michaelis]

52 minutes ago, jakedood said:

 

Where would people usually find these more i depth stats about minor leaguers?

Unfortunately it’s mostly a case of “knowing a guy” who has access to the database the team uses. There isn’t much in the way of public data for the more in depth batted ball/swing decision stats ?

[MrTPlush]

1 hour ago, jakedood said:

 

However given the improvements at Triple A, namely in strikeout and Walk %, you'd wonder if towards the latter part of the season did he start to cover the plate better and as a result develop more solidity. If someone had a gap that large you'd expect Triple A pitchers to get better and better at dismantling him at the plate

Where would people usually find these more i depth stats about minor leaguers?

You won't find super detailed stats, but you can find game logs. 

He was promoted in August. 5/6 of his multi-strikeout games occurred before 8/15 and he had zero multi-strikeout games in September. 

He only had 6 walks in August (2 of which were on the 31st) and 15 walks in September.

Of course that is a pretty small sample, so hard to really take them completely serious. It doesn't show anything in depth, but you can certainly see that AAA pitching wasn't figuring him out as the two months went on. It looks like the complete opposite.

[Jake McKibbin]

2 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

You won't find super detailed stats, but you can find game logs. 

He was promoted in August. 5/6 of his multi-strikeout games occurred before 8/15 and he had zero multi-strikeout games in September. 

He only had 6 walks in August (2 of which were on the 31st) and 15 walks in September.

Of course that is a pretty small sample, so hard to really take them completely serious. It doesn't show anything in depth, but you can certainly see that AAA pitching wasn't figuring him out as the two months went on. It looks like the complete opposite.

I hadnt noticed about the first 10 days, thats a great observation!

Settling in, new pitch level, it seems his SO rate at Nashville may be a little inflated, but obviously only time will tell

Question after that is, what sort of SO rate in first say 2-3 months of AAA season would make you sit up and say he needs to be moved up? Something below 22%?

[Ro Mueller]

He appeared to be managing some sort of injury (e.g. wrist?, thumb?) in the middle part of the 2022 season which badly affected his hitting (.500 OPS in 177 PAs from June 11 - August 5), although his fielding and effort remained strong.

So long as that discomfort is fully behind him, I assume he’ll man right field for the Brewers for a terrific decade. Corey Hart with more speed and a stronger arm.

[Harold Hutchison]

6 hours ago, jakedood said:

I hadnt noticed about the first 10 days, thats a great observation!

Settling in, new pitch level, it seems his SO rate at Nashville may be a little inflated, but obviously only time will tell

Question after that is, what sort of SO rate in first say 2-3 months of AAA season would make you sit up and say he needs to be moved up? Something below 22%?

I'd say a walk rate of 15% or higher and a K rate below 25% would be a big part of that.

[nate82]

7 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Weimer's jump from A+ to AA was really concerning. However, when he got promoted AAA he had his lowest K-rate of his career and his highest walk rate since Single A. Also recorded his best SB % at a bonkers 83%. 

If he is anywhere near his AAA numbers next year and doesn't regress back to AA type numbers he has massive potential. 

Wiemer started out the year fine at AA and then he got hurt.  I believe he had a minor injury in June or July as his power numbers just absolutely bombed around then.  I think there was something in the link reports on here stating he didn't look right and his power was just gone for awhile from June through July.  His numbers kind of back this up. 

In April and May he hit fine in AA but then he got hurt or was dealing with something in June and everything started going south from there.  He looks like he finally fully healed up in August when you see his slugging shoot up to .550.  I think he was dealing with an injury from June - July and that is why his numbers dipped like they did. 

[UpandIn]

10 hours ago, jakedood said:

So this is probably one of the prospects that excites me the most, due to his very large ceiling and the improvements he made at Nashville, but also aware that while I udnerstand talks about swings on a physics level, its not my forte

 

Wiemer is SUCH an incredibly exciting prospect. If his hit tool at the MLB level is just average, he could be a 5WAR player. I also think he could handle CF just fine...we just don't need him to play out there with Mitchell and Frelick both being elite defenders out there(and maybe Chourio in a year or two). 

I've said I think he's similar to Jay Buhner. That's who I think he CAN be. Jay Buhner but with more speed. Buhner had one of the strongest arms, had HUGE power, drew a lot of walks. Buhner wasn't on the same level as a pure athlete, but just physical attributes and Wiemer's upside is close to what Buhner did...IMO. 

If his walk rate is over 10%, much less the 13+ that Buhner had while keeping his K rate under 25-28, I think he'll be a super star. 

Hunter Pence is the most common comp because he does have a unique swing. I don't really think that's a great comp though because Pence had very low walk rates, relatively low K rates and just doesn't have the raw physical power, speed or even the arm Wiemer did. 

 

Wiemer has the largest range of potential outcomes among our prospects. I could see him potentially being a 40/40 guy who wins a GG in RF or even plays a serviceable CF. He could also be a Tyrone Taylor type hitter. .~.220/.280 with some power, but not enough contact to fully realize his potential. 

 

I'm betting on him hitting the ball well enough to be a real impact player, but...we'll have to see. 

[Joseph Zarr]

3 hours ago, damuelle said:

He appeared to be managing some sort of injury (e.g. wrist?, thumb?) in the middle part of the 2022 season which badly affected his hitting (.500 OPS in 177 PAs from June 11 - August 5), although his fielding and effort remained strong.

So long as that discomfort is fully behind him, I assume he’ll man right field for the Brewers for a terrific decade. Corey Hart with more speed and a stronger arm.

It should also be added: this injury very well could have been a re-occurrence of a thumb injury that limited him to 9 AFL games in 2021 (we have no public confirmation here). If we recall, he was absolutely dominancing and validating his 2021 organizational player of the year accolades at that time. It appeared like it was the same hand in 2022. AND, when he came back after his stint on the shelf, when he was struggling, he definitely appeared to re-injure said injury in a couple foul ball attempts. SO, his struggles post-injury were concerning but if you had that context and witnessed when it happened there was a big 'Well, is he really healthy though?' and there were several instances of observable frustration in the batter's box when his wrist/hand couldn't do what he wanted it to do. 

All we can say definitively: He was shut down 2x in a 6 month period with a thumb and then a possible thumb/hand. We don't know if they are related. We don't know if they are chronic. Let's hope not!

As to his Triple-A performance? IF he is healthy this is what we could all hope for as his launch point. BUT, given his nagging injury of the past year now - not to mention too short of a truly remarkable K% turnaround - we are still, imho, at a 'Let's see where we are those first two months of 2023.' But, make no mistake about it: when Wiemer is flashing like he did in Nashville he is a five-tool guy and he is a massive threat everywhere on the diamond.

[Joseph Zarr]

2 hours ago, nate82 said:

Wiemer started out the year fine at AA and then he got hurt.  I believe he had a minor injury in June or July as his power numbers just absolutely bombed around then.  I think there was something in the link reports on here stating he didn't look right and his power was just gone for awhile from June through July.  His numbers kind of back this up. 

In April and May he hit fine in AA but then he got hurt or was dealing with something in June and everything started going south from there.  He looks like he finally fully healed up in August when you see his slugging shoot up to .550.  I think he was dealing with an injury from June - July and that is why his numbers dipped like they did. 

Indeed. I wrote several of those Link Reports and watched the games. In the batter's box, he was absolutely not comfortable nor healthy. He couldn't get anything on the ball and his ability to drive it had severely been impacted. Deep into his 'slump', it was very apparent he was very frustrated. It was a true credit to him how he responded and became an even better version than we had seen at any level in Nashville.

[Harold Hutchison]

1 hour ago, Joseph Zarr said:

It should also be added: this injury very well could have been a re-occurrence of a thumb injury that limited him to 9 AFL games in 2021 (we have no public confirmation here). If we recall, he was absolutely dominancing and validating his 2021 organizational player of the year accolades at that time. It appeared like it was the same hand in 2022. AND, when he came back after his stint on the shelf, when he was struggling, he definitely appeared to re-injure said injury in a couple foul ball attempts. SO, his struggles post-injury were concerning but if you had that context and witnessed when it happened there was a big 'Well, is he really healthy though?' and there were several instances of observable frustration in the batter's box when his wrist/hand couldn't do what he wanted it to do. 

All we can say definitively: He was shut down 2x in a 6 month period with a thumb and then a possible thumb/hand. We don't know if they are related. We don't know if they are chronic. Let's hope not!

As to his Triple-A performance? IF he is healthy this is what we could all hope for as his launch point. BUT, given his nagging injury of the past year now - not to mention too short of a truly remarkable K% turnaround - we are still, imho, at a 'Let's see where we are those first two months of 2023.' But, make no mistake about it: when Wiemer is flashing like he did in Nashville he is a five-tool guy and he is a massive threat everywhere on the diamond.

Ryan Braun struggled with a similar thumb injury in 2013/2014. It took a bit for him to get bear to almost-MVP form in 2015-2017.

[ougiqbxy]

I am most impressed by his attitude when he was injured.  Still played aggressively. His defense was still great and he still swiped bags,  While flustered at the plate he still handled everything else.

[UpandIn]

2 hours ago, clancyphile said:

Ryan Braun struggled with a similar thumb injury in 2013/2014. It took a bit for him to get bear to almost-MVP form in 2015-2017.

Where on earth are you getting that Wiemer has the same type of injury that...really kinda helped derail Braun's career?

That's a MASSIVE statement to make. Braun had a chronic issue that required a ton of maintenance and did not get better. 

As far as I know, Wiemer has a sore wrist or a sprained wrist. That's a massive, massive difference. 

[UpandIn]

4 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

It should also be added: this injury very well could have been a re-occurrence of a thumb injury that limited him to 9 AFL games in 2021 (we have no public confirmation here). If we recall, he was absolutely dominancing and validating his 2021 organizational player of the year accolades at that time. It appeared like it was the same hand in 2022. AND, when he came back after his stint on the shelf, when he was struggling, he definitely appeared to re-injure said injury in a couple foul ball attempts. SO, his struggles post-injury were concerning but if you had that context and witnessed when it happened there was a big 'Well, is he really healthy though?' and there were several instances of observable frustration in the batter's box when his wrist/hand couldn't do what he wanted it to do. 

All we can say definitively: He was shut down 2x in a 6 month period with a thumb and then a possible thumb/hand. We don't know if they are related. We don't know if they are chronic. Let's hope not!

As to his Triple-A performance? IF he is healthy this is what we could all hope for as his launch point. BUT, given his nagging injury of the past year now - not to mention too short of a truly remarkable K% turnaround - we are still, imho, at a 'Let's see where we are those first two months of 2023.' But, make no mistake about it: when Wiemer is flashing like he did in Nashville he is a five-tool guy and he is a massive threat everywhere on the diamond.

He really could jump into this lineup next year and if all goes well, provide a Ryan Braun like boost.

Not that he'll be posting a .620 SLG or a 1.000, but again, the way our lineup is built, a power hitting, lefty crushing, base stealing, home run robbing, ass kicking, extra base stealing 6'5 Stud from Cincy with an arm so strong he needs a conceal carry permit, exit velocities so big they normal radar break trying to read them...the Bearcat turned Brewer here to save our candy asses!

Side Note-I just watched that show with The Rock running for President...it might have rubbed off on me for a moment there!

But really, even if you JUST get the average of his AA/AAA season, that's a ~.255/.335/.470 SLG while breaking up all the lefties(even if his splits last year were reverse...which frankly seems to bold well for his future)...that could be a MASSIVE impact. I think we're going to see Frelick/Mitchell/Wiemer and Turang at 2B in at least one game this year...and it's going to be beautiful. Maybe even Tyler Black come Sept? 

Anyway, the Cart is now miles in front of the horse, but it's exciting...the possibilities. 

 

He's got that type of talent that makes you REALLY excited and who makes it nearly impossible for him to 

[Robocaller]

Wiemer is a 5-tool prospect, but his worst tool is the most important--hitting for average.

The good news is that he can still be valuable if he hits around .230.

[Robocaller]

2 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Where on earth are you getting that Wiemer has the same type of injury that...really kinda helped derail Braun's career?

That's a MASSIVE statement to make. Braun had a chronic issue that required a ton of maintenance and did not get better. 

As far as I know, Wiemer has a sore wrist or a sprained wrist. That's a massive, massive difference. 

iirc it was a finger/thumb. 

[Jake McKibbin]

Really glad to see I'm not the only one who sees a serious serious upside, and I do wonder with his ceiling if we'd be chatting about him more if there wasnt a certain other prospect who's ceiling is sky high..

I think he has the ability to be a franchise changing player and as such should be considered mostly off the trade market, and personally I'd have him higher than Mitchell for sure in my estimations (and I really liked the energy and defense Mitchell provided) 

Didnt know about the injury, but those are some starkly changing figures in June/July and is a real testament to his character. Maybe does need a little more time to see how he fares with a bigger sample etc, but there's something about potential that makes you get so damn excited, particularly given his average over the healthy months was 285, which is probably his weakest tool

Genuinely feel we could have a guy here who could regularly produce an OPS of over 850 for 5 seasons with high quality RF defense and speed

 

So is he really a comparable talent to Garrett Mitchell?

[UpandIn]

3 hours ago, Robocaller said:

iirc it was a finger/thumb. 

Ok...well...it being the same body part or in the same area does not mean it's the same injury. Braun had a nerve issue coming right up through the thumb that caused either pain or surgery which would have caused him to lose all feeling. It was a chronic condition that plagued him his last 5-6 years. His median nerve was inflamed and pinched and the only way to deal with it was to freeze it regularly. 

I think Wiemer had a sprained thumb and then he was fine. I don't believe he's dealing with any long term issues. That'd be a VERY big deal...

[UpandIn]

3 hours ago, jakedood said:

Really glad to see I'm not the only one who sees a serious serious upside, and I do wonder with his ceiling if we'd be chatting about him more if there wasnt a certain other prospect who's ceiling is sky high..

I think he has the ability to be a franchise changing player and as such should be considered mostly off the trade market, and personally I'd have him higher than Mitchell for sure in my estimations (and I really liked the energy and defense Mitchell provided) 

Didnt know about the injury, but those are some starkly changing figures in June/July and is a real testament to his character. Maybe does need a little more time to see how he fares with a bigger sample etc, but there's something about potential that makes you get so damn excited, particularly given his average over the healthy months was 285, which is probably his weakest tool

Genuinely feel we could have a guy here who could regularly produce an OPS of over 850 for 5 seasons with high quality RF defense and speed

 

So is he really a comparable talent to Garrett Mitchell?

I think he's a better prospect than Mitchell by a pretty decent margin at the time. 

Wiemer has the speed(not quite Mitchell speed, but not too far off). I really think his defense in CF would be above average. Mitchell struggled going back on balls, but I assume that was just being young and new to the park. 

But Mitchell has all the same tools, but he hasn't shown that in game power that Wiemer has. 

I think there's a pretty solid consensus that Wiemer is the prospect with the most upside in the system outside of Chourio among the position players. I think Frelick is the safest bet to be an impact player, Turang has the highest floor, but ceiling? That's Wiemer IMO. 

 

I think you're absolutely right about that. I think he'll be a .270/.360./550 type hitter who contends for GG's and is CAPABLE of that 40/40 season(though, everything has to go right for even proven players, so that's obviously just a very optimistic POV). 

 

Pitching prospects, Misiorowski is the guy who has that crazy upside, but he hasn't actually done anything yet(outside of apparently rave reviews at instructs in AZ). 

[Harold Hutchison]

8 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Where on earth are you getting that Wiemer has the same type of injury that...really kinda helped derail Braun's career?

That's a MASSIVE statement to make. Braun had a chronic issue that required a ton of maintenance and did not get better. 

As far as I know, Wiemer has a sore wrist or a sprained wrist. That's a massive, massive difference. 

Someone mentioned a hand/thumb injury. I may have added 2 and 2 to get 17, but I can believe a hand/wrist injury could affect a player's performance.

[CheezWizHed]

9 hours ago, jakedood said:

So is he really a comparable talent to Garrett Mitchell?

If you mean prospect level yes.  If you mean comparable talent as baseball players... not even close. Garrett Mitchell has more speed and less SLG.  More defense but less arm. Mitchell has a higher floor, but a lower ceiling, IMO.

 

Wiemer could probably range between Ryan Braun with a stronger arm (ceiling) and Glenn Braggs (AAAA OF that killed minors, but can't make the jump to majors) for the low end. Lots of power, but mostly Ks). A right handed Jeromy Burnitz comp might not be far off. 

Mitchell makes me think of Lorenzo Cain for a ceiling comp - good CF defense, hit for average+OBP with normal CF power.  (Buxton keeps popping up in my head too due to similar size and injury issues, but Bux has more power and less AVE/OBP). Lower end I can't think of a decent comp (Tony Gwynn Jr, but taller?).  The defense is there already, but might be a 650-700 OPS "just a guy" CF for the floor.

So talent wise I see them very different.  Both could have big impacts prospect wise however.

[Playing Catch]

As a prospect, he reminds me a lot of Bradley Zimmer, although Wiemer hits from the right side. I would guess that is actually his most likely career path, as a tall, athletic, defensive outfielder who struggles to make the most of his power due to his lack of bat-to-ball prowess.

But good golly, am I hoping beyond hope that those adjustments made just prior to his AAA promotion stick. because IF he can hit .265, he's gunna be a multiple all-star, and perhaps a gold-glover, because all of his other talents WILL work in MLB.

While the K% is concerning, it is bolstered by a pretty nice BB%, which makes me think (perhaps incorrectly), that it isn't so much about swing and miss, as much as it is that he gets into a lot of deep counts (you can't strike out if you never have 2 strikes, and you are pretty likely to strike out, if you get 2 strikes).