2023 NFL Discussion Thread

[CheezWizHed]

On 5/4/2023 at 3:50 PM, MrTPlush said:

It made sense for the Jets to go after Packers WRs regardless of whether Rodgers kindly requested them or not. If you are hedging your bets on an old QB for 2 years, having him get comfortable and learn to play with an entire roster of new guys is a lot of wasted time that could be costly. Especially early on next year. 

Unfortunately for the Jets, Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb were the two WRs available to nab and not someone like Davante Adams. Knowing how Rodgers runs an offense and how guys have struggled with him at first in the past, it will probably end up beneficial. The quality of those guys isn't that great though, so I don't really expect this experiment to work that well for the Jets. We shall see though. 

Meh... Lazard made sense.  He is a decent WR and should contribute.  But Cobb was our 4th best WR and 6th best pass catcher (Jones+Tonyan) last year on a team sorely lacking WRs.  Two rookie WRs passed him up. 

NYJ will have Wilson, Conklin, and Lazard clearly ahead of Cobb.  He might fit into Elijah Moore's role, but still has Corey Davis in competition too.  He could easily be the 5th WR and if he isn't on ST, he is probably crippling the team more than helping. 

I love what Cobb was, but he isn't that anymore unfortunately. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

Cobb will be a 3rd and short security blanket for Rodgers for about half the season, and he'll miss the other half the season due to injury - while on the field, he'll excel at taking looks away from other more dynamic receivers because of familiarity with Rodgers and becoming a net negative to their offense.

His biggest role will be Rodgers' dinner companion to help find all the best restaurants to hit up in the big Apple...and to stay in close contact as they sort out retirement planning decisions together.  Can't blame Rodgers for wanting a few friends/familiar faces in the locker room with him - but he has a knack for wanting guys who can't play anymore.  

[igor67]

Rodgers the GM certainly would make one long for the days of good ol' Sal Bando...

[HarryDoyle]

The 2023 schedule will be released Thursday.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Cardinals just cut DeAndre Hopkins....I think I'd prefer this type of veteran flyer this offseason compared to Sammy Watkins, just saying!

[nate82]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Cardinals just cut DeAndre Hopkins....I think I'd prefer this type of veteran flyer this offseason compared to Sammy Watkins, just saying!

I doubt Hopkins would be interested in coming to the Packers.  Probably would want to go somewhere with a higher Super Bowl chance.  I think he goes to the Chiefs, Bengals, Eagles or Jets.

[HarryDoyle]

Yeah, if Rodgers was still here I could see Hopkins wanting to come here, but not anymore. Good luck getting any meaningful free agents to come to Green Bay now.

[areacodes]

1 hour ago, HarryDoyle said:

Yeah, if Rodgers was still here I could see Hopkins wanting to come here, but not anymore. Good luck getting any meaningful free agents to come to Green Bay now.

Who were all of the meaningful free agents who came to Green Bay because of Rodgers?

[CheezWizHed]

On 5/27/2023 at 5:10 PM, areacodes said:

Who were all of the meaningful free agents who came to Green Bay because of Rodgers?

Danica Patrick, Olivia Munn, Shailene Woodley... 

[nate82]

Dalvin Cook to be traded today?

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10077499-dalvin-cook-rumors-teams-believe-vikings-will-trade-or-release-rb-amid-dolphins-buzz

[CheezWizHed]

4 hours ago, nate82 said:

Dalvin Cook to be traded today?

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10077499-dalvin-cook-rumors-teams-believe-vikings-will-trade-or-release-rb-amid-dolphins-buzz

Maybe they could trade him to Dallas... but I doubt they get the haul that Hershel Walker brought...

[nate82]

Dalvin Cook to be released.

https://www.nfl.com/news/vikings-to-release-rb-dalvin-cook-after-six-seasons

Vikings will save about $9m in cap space with this move.  There is still a possibility a trade maybe worked out but very unlikely. 

[BrewerFan]

On 5/27/2023 at 5:10 PM, areacodes said:

Who were all of the meaningful free agents who came to Green Bay because of Rodgers?

I really think this was a product of styles. Wolf or Gutekunst as the GM most of his career and I think they'd have been much more aggressive...but Thompson just wasn't interested in FA much.

Allen Robinson...who at the time was on par with Davante Adams, he turned down a deal that was reportedly 3/42 but with slightly less GTD money to sign with the Bears during the Packers big spending spree Gutey's first year as the GM.

 

Anyway, just noticed that Clowney signed with the Ravens for 2.5M(up to 6M in ULTBE incentives). That's an outstanding deal at this time of the year. I'd have been on board with that type of signing and playing him more as a DE. He's quietly have a VERY good career despite being viewed as a bit of a bust given the ridiculous expectations, but he's rock solid vs the run year after year. 

 

 

[nate82]

The Colts have given Jonathan Taylor permission to seek a trade.

https://theathletic.com/4794686/2023/08/21/jonathan-taylor-trade-request-colts-irsay/?source=user_shared_article

I am going to go with the Bears as a possible destination for JT, though I don’t think he fits into their offensive scheme.

Hard to find another team that would have the cap room to extend him to a contract he would sign.  Probably a 2nd or 3rd round pick in return should be JT’s value.

[homer]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

The Colts have given Jonathan Taylor permission to seek a trade.

https://theathletic.com/4794686/2023/08/21/jonathan-taylor-trade-request-colts-irsay/?source=user_shared_article

I am going to go with the Bears as a possible destination for JT, though I don’t think he fits into their offensive scheme.

Hard to find another team that would have the cap room to extend him to a contract he would sign.  Probably a 2nd or 3rd round pick in return should be JT’s value.

Does Miami have cap room? seems like a good fit

[nate82]

47 minutes ago, homer said:

Does Miami have cap room? seems like a good fit

I have seen the Dolphins cap around $10-13mm so I believe they would have enough.  I completely forgot about the Dolphins.  I knew they were interested in Cook but completely forgot they didn't really go out and get a RB as they have Mostert as their starting RB now.  JT to the Dolphins makes some sense.  I think the Colts will want a 3rd or 4th round pick but I think the best offer they will get is a 6th and 7th for JT.  The Dolphins only have their 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th and 7th round picks for next years draft so it will probably be a 6th round pick in '24 and a 7th in '25.  

Feels kind of low but if the Colts ask for more then the players union may have a case for a grievance against the team.  Something around a 2nd or 3rd round pick should be a contract around $5-8m which is about middle of the road RB territory.  JT is probably asking for something around $10mm annually.  If that is the case he is not all that far off on his valuation.  If the Colts are only offering around $3-4mm annually then their best case is a 5th-7th round pick maybe a 4th round pick at the high end.  The players union would have a grievance case against the Colts and I think they win that due to the value that the teams put on the draft picks. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

5 hours ago, nate82 said:

The Colts have given Jonathan Taylor permission to seek a trade.

https://theathletic.com/4794686/2023/08/21/jonathan-taylor-trade-request-colts-irsay/?source=user_shared_article

I am going to go with the Bears as a possible destination for JT, though I don’t think he fits into their offensive scheme.

Hard to find another team that would have the cap room to extend him to a contract he would sign.  Probably a 2nd or 3rd round pick in return should be JT’s value.

Didn't Taylor also fail his pre-camp physical due to a combo of a bad ankle that's already undergone surgery once and a potential back injury that the Colts are claiming happened off the field?  I don't see any team willing to part ways with a draft pick package equal to a 1st rounder in a trade to appease the Colts, let alone also want to hand him a longterm contract paying him $10M a season without knowing if he's damaged goods or not.  Not getting on the field to show other teams he's fully healthy is no way to wind up securing a trade to a new team and a fat new contract, so I think there's something serious going on with Taylor's health right now.  Some of the antics between him and Irsay could stem from Taylor's frustration with not being 100% healthy with a risk of him not ever being the same player that would be deserving of a big contract.

Taylor's collegiate workload has to be taken in consideration when trying to determine how much good tread he has left on the tires, too.  He didn't suffer a ton of injuries that would cause him to miss time, but he did push through a bunch of minor injuries any RB who touches the ball almost 1,000 times in 3 seasons would suffer.

Bellcow running backs are indeed a dying breed in the NFL - and for the few elite ones that are still around, they need to pick the right offseason to hold out/force a team's hand on a new contract to get paid while they can.  Unfortunately for Taylor, he seems to have waited one offseason too long since he's not healthy and really has no leverage until he is back on the field.  

 

 

[nate82]

54 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Didn't Taylor also fail his pre-camp physical due to a combo of a bad ankle that's already undergone surgery once and a potential back injury that the Colts are claiming happened off the field? 

Neither are true.  The back injury was a source which hasn’t been corroborated.  JT has denied ever stating he had back pain.  The ankle he has been rehabbing.  He is supposed to report to training camp this week but with the current news I doubt that will happen now.

The Colts are definitely not getting a 1st for JT.  At best that they could hope for is a 4th round pick.  They have backed themselves into a corner here.  

[BrewerFan]

5 hours ago, nate82 said:

Neither are true.  The back injury was a source which hasn’t been corroborated.  JT has denied ever stating he had back pain.  The ankle he has been rehabbing.  He is supposed to report to training camp this week but with the current news I doubt that will happen now.

The Colts are definitely not getting a 1st for JT.  At best that they could hope for is a 4th round pick.  They have backed themselves into a corner here.  

 I don't know...I don't think they've backed themselves into a corner, I think both sides have contributed to this.
It was, "I'm a team player, I'm here to play out the contract I signed my name to." And then the RB stuff happened and he got on the phone and decided he was going to take a stand.

I really think he's worth a 1st round pick for the right team. Say...Kansas City OR Buffalo(the later in particular). 

He's the best back in the NFL IMO. Great vision, he has ELITE speed, he's a strong runner. He's just a simple one cut and then beat you to the spot type back. 

I think he's worth a 5/75M deal given he's 24 years old and if you make that 5/75, ~35 SB...give him a contract that starts at the minimum Yr 1, then yr 2 it's ~5M, year 3 it's ~10M, now a team has to decide to either keep him or let him go.

 

But of the handful of backs that are worth it, he's definitey one of them.

Kamara(just on field).
Henry
McCaffery

 

I don't think the Colts or...really any team has a problem paying him 10M AAV, but he's trying to make this stand on behalf of RBs. I'd say he goes for a 2+4 and '24 2nd. Especially if it's from a team like the Bills who'll be picking late. 

[BrewerFan]

10 hours ago, nate82 said:

I have seen the Dolphins cap around $10-13mm so I believe they would have enough.  I completely forgot about the Dolphins.  I knew they were interested in Cook but completely forgot they didn't really go out and get a RB as they have Mostert as their starting RB now.  JT to the Dolphins makes some sense.  I think the Colts will want a 3rd or 4th round pick but I think the best offer they will get is a 6th and 7th for JT.  The Dolphins only have their 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th and 7th round picks for next years draft so it will probably be a 6th round pick in '24 and a 7th in '25.  

Feels kind of low but if the Colts ask for more then the players union may have a case for a grievance against the team.  Something around a 2nd or 3rd round pick should be a contract around $5-8m which is about middle of the road RB territory.  JT is probably asking for something around $10mm annually.  If that is the case he is not all that far off on his valuation.  If the Colts are only offering around $3-4mm annually then their best case is a 5th-7th round pick maybe a 4th round pick at the high end.  The players union would have a grievance case against the Colts and I think they win that due to the value that the teams put on the draft picks. 

The players union will have no case. He's under contract and my guess is he read the writing on the wall with Barkley and knows that he'll get tagged once and then twice if he kept playing the baby face.

And I think the Colts are EASILY getting more than a 6th or a 7th. Denzel Mimms was traded for a conditional 6th round pick(with a 7th going the other way) IF he made the team. He didn't, but that should still give a little perspective to his value.

I think the Packers would jump and give up a 6th or a 7th for Taylor in a heartbeat. Literally every team in the NFL would make that trade. 

10 hours ago, nate82 said:

JT is probably asking for something around $10mm annually. 

It's obviously complicated by the contract he wants, but he's asking for at LEAST 15M a year. 

But the NFLPA can't say because you don't want to extend his contract early, and you're asking for all this draft capital, that there's some ground for grievance. What would that even be?

The Colts would say at 5M dollars, we think he's worth a 1st round pick and that' in no way contradictory to their position that they dont' want to pay a RB big money over a long period of time. 

 

10 hours ago, nate82 said:

If the Colts are only offering around $3-4mm annually then their best case is a 5th-7th round pick maybe a 4th round pick at the high end.  The players union would have a grievance case against the Colts and I think they win that due to the value that the teams put on the draft picks. 

He's making over 5M a year THIS year. The Colts have reportedly offered 3/36 with a 20 SB and a total of 4/48.

I feel like people are GROSSLY underestimating Taylor's value. He's gone for nearly 4700 yards from scrimmage his first 3 years.
2 years ago he went for over 1800 rushing, just short of 2200 total yards and 20 TDs. 
He was AP and OPOY Runner Up behind Kupp when he caught 145 passes for 1950 yards. 

 

Count me among those who's firmly on Taylor's side. They're going into a year with an absolute freak human being playing QB, but he's a 20 year old who started one year and he's exceptionally raw.

But the plan is to use Taylor's running ability to build their offense off of. So it's silly for him to accept the ~5M this year, then know he'll be tagged and probably not get 11M next year and then 13 the following year? There's no real commitment from the Colts. 

 

He's the face of the franchise, does things the right way, he's a power back who also has 4.3 speed. It's a little shocking to see the COLTS of all teams hand out massive contracts to Guards, Off-Ball LBers and then Safeties and then turn their chin up at  paying the guy they've marketed their whole team around.

This WHOLE thing comes down to pressure from the NFLPA. Since McCaffery signed a ~4/65M deal, no RB has matched that. Kamar signed for 5/75 prior to that...and both those deals have worked out, but both are receiving backs. 

 

Taylor is kinda fighting for all RBs right now. And while I believe it's easier to replace a RB, some backs are just special and you can't replace them. 230, sub 4.4 40, explosive, physical, good hands and he's gone for just under 1600 yards a year his first three years with 36 TDs despite not having any real QB or passing game. 

And I think the Colts are asking for a 1st because they want to tax teams like the Bengals, Bills or whoever is the most likely team to go out and acquire him. 

He's a better back than Aaron Jones and Jones has gotten ~4/50.

So this is not just for him, this is for Bijan Robinson and all the RBs teams are using up by giving them 300 carries before they have to pay them and then just letting him walk. If RBs actually band together...some of these teams are going to find out the difference between the top RB in the NFL and RB by committee. 

I think we see it with Jones to Dillon and Dillon is a good back.

 

Finally, it's not like the Colts don't have the cap room. This really doesn't make sense to me. But trade him to the Bills who've been looking for a run game for years. I think that's enough to push them over the top and make them a SB favorites. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

This is very common for star players on their rookie deals who weren't drafted in the 1st round, meaning they're on 4 year contracts with no option for a team to extend a lucrative 5th year option and use that extra guaranteed year as a starting point for a longterm extension.  And it isn't really an issue limited to running backs in the NFL. 

Specific to Taylor, to get what he wants he has to be on the field.  Aaron Jones got his 1st big payday after playing out his 4 year rookie deal and became a free agent - he still opted to stay in GB signing that deal.  I hope his representation is giving him some good advice - this is probably the year to work out a longterm extension with the Colts if he actually wanted to stay there, but it's not the time to try and push your way out of town to a different team when there are so few with healthy cap situations to actually give him a large guaranteed deal. Sure, the Colts could franchise Taylor next offseason, but they would then shop him via trade leading up to the draft across the whole league, likely sending Taylor to a team that's a good fit for him and getting more value back.  Then again, now actually would be the time to gripe and try to force his way out for a new contract if Taylor did have some lingering injury concerns with that ankle or any other issue.

[CheezWizHed]

Just please keep JT from the Bears or Vikings... I think I'd cry to see him in those colors. 

Probably wouldn't work for Salary cap reasons, but would you trade Jones for JT straight up? 

[Fear The Chorizo]

27 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Just please keep JT from the Bears or Vikings... I think I'd cry to see him in those colors. 

Probably wouldn't work for Salary cap reasons, but would you trade Jones for JT straight up? 

Next offseason?  absolutely

[CheezWizHed]

Well, I think he is up for trade this offseason, so that would be the timeframe.

Then Indy would have 2 years of Jones as a return. I would suspect that 1 year of a 30 year-old Jones (and cost) wouldn't be interesting to Indy.

[BrewerFan]

10 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Well, I think he is up for trade this offseason, so that would be the timeframe.

Then Indy would have 2 years of Jones as a return. I would suspect that 1 year of a 30 year-old Jones (and cost) wouldn't be interesting to Indy.

Indy is just building, so I agree, I can't imagine a scenario in which they'd trade Aaron Jones.

But Taylor is such a good fit in this system, player for player, how do you pass?

And it save the Colts a couple million this year. They'd probably restructure as he'd be very cheap this year, but cost ~11M next year.
Without knowing how good Love is, it's pretty difficult to make a decision on a Taylor contract. 

 

It'd really be kinda dirty to trade Jones like that. I know it's a business, but he's taken less to stay in GB and has been extremely productive...but Taylor is the best back in the league IMO and he's young. I really don't get Indy's reluctance to trade him OR what the hell Irsay was thinking when he made those comments.  Someone check his car. He may be driving around with 30K and...other accessories in there.

 

Quote

 

Just please keep JT from the Bears or Vikings... I think I'd cry to see him in those colors. 

Probably wouldn't work for Salary cap reasons, but would you trade Jones for JT straight up? 

 

Minnesota is one of the teams reportedly interested. The Bears SHOULD be, but they decided to go nuts on FA contracts in one of the worst FA classes ever. 

 

But again, just the trade, they could pull that off cap wise before you factor in how Taylor is being pushed by the NFLPA and now this group of RBs to be their figurehead.