Article: Milwaukee Brewers 2023 Positional Previews: Right Field

[Matthew Trueblood]

We've covered the whole field, now, in our positional preview of the 2023 Brewers. We'll round things out with right field, where a rookie could have an instant impact--if he gets the opportunity he's earned.

Image courtesy of © Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

His name is everywhere, even though his real form is suddenly nowhere. Tyrone Taylor's absence from the outfield mix will be a conspicuous one as the season gets going. Without him, the Milwaukee outfield leans heavily toward left-handed hitters, and there's a risk of some serious defensive deficiency. Still, thanks to Sal Frelick, there's also an appealing upside.

The Starter

The new Collective Bargaining Agreement gives the Brewers an easier path to keeping Frelick on the Opening Day roster. It's not the kind of comprehensive or wholly rational incentive for which we might have hoped, but it's there. Because the relevant top prospect lists this winter included Frelick as one of the game's top 100, the Crew could get a bonus draft pick in 2024 if they carry Frelick all season and he gets sufficient support for the National League Rookie of the Year. 

There's a bit of a trap there. Every team who monkeys around with their top youngsters' service time and keeps them in the minor leagues to claim an extra year of team control does so at the risk of hurting their team during whatever period of time they go without a qualified big-leaguer. Under the new rule, the Brewers have a chance to chase a reward, but they risk losing the year of team control (in 2029) and getting nothing in return for it, if he's merely solid.

In that case, though, and in this specific circumstance, the team would have a few ways to walk back their aggressive choice. If Frelick doesn't burst out of the gate, he'd be easy to send back to Triple-A Nashville when Taylor comes off the injured list. If he struggles mightily in an early look at big-league pitching, he could even be demoted in favor of more playing time for Tyler Naquin, Brian Anderson, or Owen Miller.

Let's think more positively, though. The Brewers should carry Frelick all season, because it's unlikely that they'll find a better player to slot in consistently in right field until Taylor returns, and it's equally unlikely that they'll have a better, more well-rounded player to rotate through all three outfield spots and the designated hitter role once Taylor does come back.

In 19 plate appearances with Team Italy in the World Baseball Classic's pool play, Frelick had seven hits (including three doubles), a walk, and zero strikeouts. In 11 trips to the plate in the Cactus League before that, he had five hits, including a double, and just one punchout. That only continues (and increases the impressiveness of) the trend he established last year, as he strikes out less and less as the level of his competition increases.

Bravo, Signore Sal Frelick!

🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹

The @Brewers’ No. 2 prospect (MLB No. 30) put together a 3-hit game to help send Italy to the #WorldBaseballClassic quarterfinals in Tokyo. pic.twitter.com/PTU0AWtfxO

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) March 12, 2023

That, surely, can't last, and Frelick's lack of significant power gives him little margin for error. To be a first-division regular, one who is pushing the Brewers materially closer to the playoffs, he probably needs to keep his strikeout rate south of 15 percent. In the modern game, where the average hitter fans 23 percent of the time and only the most elite contact guys get down near 10 percent, that's a tough limbo bar under which to duck. 

If anyone is up to that challenge, though, it might be Frelick. The Brewers should give him that chance, knowing that they have good fallback plans if he proves not to be ready to play above-average baseball right away.

The Backups

We talked plenty about Brian Anderson in the third base preview last week, but it's worth mentioning that he could easily be the primary right fielder against left-handed pitchers for the first month or so. He has a strong arm, and his power looks good enough this spring to make him a creditable corner outfielder. When Anderson is at third base, though, or at other times when he and Frelick are both unavailable, the duty is likely to fall to Naquin. Though he's never demonstrated the consistency or completeness of skill set to be an everyday star, Naquin has the power and baseline athleticism to be a fine fourth outfielder and platoon weapon. As ever, Craig Counsell will be asked to mix and match to some extent, and he's great at eliciting production in those situations.

Summary and Projected Value

The only thing that feels truly safe to say about right field for the Brewers this year is that they won't have any one player start there 130 or 140 times. Frelick, Taylor, Anderson, Naquin, and Wiemer will divvy up the playing time somehow, but whether it's Taylor and 70 starts or Frelick and 110 who leads the way can't be predicted well from here.

FanGraphs sees all that volatility, and projects the team to fit into the lowest tercile of the league in WAR at the position. Baseball Prospectus is even more tepid, because PECOTA is lower on Frelick than are other projection systems. This is the second or third spot in the lineup, though, where the Brewers have the ability to far outdistance their statistical expectations, because they have such depth. Doing so will be a matter of playing the hot hand, without exposing themselves to the vagaries of guys who have clear areas of uncertainty and inconsistency.

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[endaround]

The Brewers have 4 OF prospects for 2 positions (I don't wan to address Yelich here, but my opinion is you keep in the OF since his bat is fine there and will not be fine for 1B or DH but that is another topic). The Brewers need to find out who is going to make it and if they need to trade someone.  You right now have the perfect opportunity to evaluate a player.  Use it. 

Part of this is I think people are really too high on Frelick, Mitchell, and Wiemer.  They could break out, but to me they all look like 2-3 win players.  None of the three are also that young that we can expect huge growth going forward. We just traded the last arby year on a 2-3 win OFer for spare parts. 

[wiguy94]

If I got to make the call, Sal Frelick would be our opening day RF. Naquin has looked rough this spring and Perkins is clearly not ready for the MLB. 

[Harold Hutchison]

The more I think of it, the more Sal Frelick gives me Ichiro vibes. .300+ average, bunches of doubles, fair bit of steals, few strikeouts, but he may be better at drawing walks than Ichiro was. A fixture at the #1 or #2 hole of the lineup for a decade.

[Outlander]

2-3 WAR players are pretty valuable, especially at league minimum. If the Brewers are confident that Mitchell/Frelick are 2-3 WAR players than the correct decision to get rid of the guy making $12 million.

[endaround]

36 minutes ago, Outlander said:

2-3 WAR players are pretty valuable, especially at league minimum. If the Brewers are confident that Mitchell/Frelick are 2-3 WAR players than the correct decision to get rid of the guy making $12 million.

That is not the issue, the issue is that added year is just not worth that much if they are 2-3 win players.

[owbc]

2 hours ago, clancyphile said:

The more I think of it, the more Sal Frelick gives me Ichiro vibes. .300+ average, bunches of doubles, fair bit of steals, few strikeouts, but he may be better at drawing walks than Ichiro was. A fixture at the #1 or #2 hole of the lineup for a decade.

He's a throwback for sure. We haven't had a guy with a swing like his in the starting lineup in a long, long time. Seeing the success that Steven Kwan had last year gives me confidence that Frelick can do great things in MLB, especially with the new rules. You don't need to hit for power to put up 5.0 bWAR like Kwan did last year. 

[Harold Hutchison]

6 minutes ago, owbc said:

He's a throwback for sure. We haven't had a guy with a swing like his in the starting lineup in a long, long time. Seeing the success that Steven Kwan had last year gives me confidence that Frelick can do great things in MLB, especially with the new rules. You don't need to hit for power to put up 5.0 bWAR like Kwan did last year. 

Between defense, OBP skills, speed, and a lot of doubles, I see Frelick as a power for a long time, and definitely someone to extend long-term ASAP.