Cubs (Hendricks) vs Brewers (Miley): 7/4/23, 3:10pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

Incredible win yesterday, let's see a cleaner one today.

[wiguy94]

Today would be a huge win to bank going into facing the 2 Cubs aces the final 2 days of the series

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Today would be a huge win to bank going into facing the 2 Cubs aces the final 2 days of the series

Good point. And another win today puts the Cubs in a *very* difficult situation. I still think they're the most likely challenge to the Brewers in the NLC, should they ever get their crap together. Creating a gap now pushes them to sell.

[Jake McKibbin]

50 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Today would be a huge win to bank going into facing the 2 Cubs aces the final 2 days of the series

Absolutely, a ton of pressure, two won series this week makes a massive difference as the Reds can't keep winning every one run game out there

A great start and the offense is clearly feeling high

I'm curious if our new HOF 3rd baseman can show some of that improvement in triple AAA, could be a really big under the radar signing

Looking at Hendricks, just a few starts so far this season and he's outperformed expected stats somewhat (unlike Smyly who had gone the other way)

He's great at avoiding non competitive pitches hence the great chase rate, but minimal whiffs even on these pitches. It'll come down to whether the Brewers can punish a couple of mistake pitches here or there, and he's unlikely to walk many guys

I can see him bamboozling Wiemer a little, but Adames is looking better again, Yelich is mashing, and that top of the order last night was so strong, hopefully see more of that with a little extra from the middle/bottom of the lineup. 

Deeper look at it

 

To lefties he leads with the changeup low and away, but thats a strong enough pitch for Yelich, who's much more susceptible to the slider down and in. He's also used the four seam fastball to left handers, which has been hit to an xBA of .344 and xSlg of .844, on the outer half to left handers. It pairs beautifully location wise with the changeup, but the Brewers can do some damage against it, perhaps a Yeli oppo taco incoming.

Sinker at just 87 mph is his go to for right handers, usually keeping it in tight on the hands where he can, but it's been sprayed a bit more than his changeup, and as a result of this and low velocity he's been hit hard here too. 

Does have a sporadic curveball, but is mostly a well located fastball/changeup guy just nibbling around the zone without particularly strong movement profiles

Also gives up a lot of nicely lofted contact, he's not a ground ball pitcher so even weaker contact can get bloop singles and create pressure

Miley is a flamethrower by comparison

 

 

[willie key]

It would be nice to separate from the pack and just make it a two horse race between us and Cincinnati 

 

i just wish I could trust the brewers

[Jake McKibbin]

1 hour ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Absolutely, a ton of pressure, two won series this week makes a massive difference as the Reds can't keep winning every one run game out there

A great start and the offense is clearly feeling high

I'm curious if our new HOF 3rd baseman can show some of that improvement in triple AAA, could be a really big under the radar signing

Looking at Hendricks, just a few starts so far this season and he's outperformed expected stats somewhat (unlike Smyly who had gone the other way)

He's great at avoiding non competitive pitches hence the great chase rate, but minimal whiffs even on these pitches. It'll come down to whether the Brewers can punish a couple of mistake pitches here or there, and he's unlikely to walk many guys

I can see him bamboozling Wiemer a little, but Adames is looking better again, Yelich is mashing, and that top of the order last night was so strong, hopefully see more of that with a little extra from the middle/bottom of the lineup. 

Deeper look at it

 

To lefties he leads with the changeup low and away, but thats a strong enough pitch for Yelich, who's much more susceptible to the slider down and in. He's also used the four seam fastball to left handers, which has been hit to an xBA of .344 and xSlg of .844, on the outer half to left handers. It pairs beautifully location wise with the changeup, but the Brewers can do some damage against it, perhaps a Yeli oppo taco incoming.

Sinker at just 87 mph is his go to for right handers, usually keeping it in tight on the hands where he can, but it's been sprayed a bit more than his changeup, and as a result of this and low velocity he's been hit hard here too. 

Does have a sporadic curveball, but is mostly a well located fastball/changeup guy just nibbling around the zone without particularly strong movement profiles

Also gives up a lot of nicely lofted contact, he's not a ground ball pitcher so even weaker contact can get bloop singles and create pressure

Miley is a flamethrower by comparison

 

 

Oh and one more thing... he has a pretty consistent use of the changeup as the count goes on, but he throws 75% fastballs in 0-0 counts. So get up there and feel confident to swing first pitch

[treego14]

[Frisbee Slider]

It is barely 10 AM CST and Reds already leading Nationals, 1-0.

[Jake McKibbin]

6 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

It is barely 10 AM CST and Reds already leading Nationals, 1-0.

I'll say it again, Matt McLain is the best prospect in the Reds system, he's so so consistent. he's been incredible. How EDLC is ahead of him in rookie power rankings is a joke

CJ Abrams with a mistake too, calling off the outfielders who'd have had a routine catch

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Honestly, at this point I'm just interested in the Brewers winning as many as possible. The difference between being a third wild card and a third division winner seems very small to me, especially since  Great American plays to the Brewers strengths a little bit.

Someone out of the Reds, Marlins, Giants, and Phillies are going to drop off. Plus, we've got 9 games coming against the Reds.

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Oh and one more thing... he has a pretty consistent use of the changeup as the count goes on, but he throws 75% fastballs in 0-0 counts. So get up there and feel confident to swing first pitch

If they're strikes, sure. I mention that because sometimes when we go into ambush mode we really don't show enough judiciousness in what we swing at. We've been working a lot of walks lately & I'd hate to see that go away.

Considering it's Hendricks/Miley, I get the feeling the HP umpire is going to be a big factor this afternoon.

[treego14]

[edfunderburk]

5 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I still think the Cubs are the most likely challenger to the Brewers in the NLC

Does this mean you have more confidence in the Brewers offense than the Reds pitching?

Cincinnati has been red-hot … the Cubs - despite a talented & more balanced roster - have never caught fire this season

I fear Cincy will trade prospects for quality pitching & Milwaukee will be a distant 2nd in the bland NLC

[edfunderburk]

5 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Adames is looking better again

Have I missed something?

How is this true?

[edfunderburk]

5 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I'm curious if our new HOF 3rd baseman can show some of that improvement in triple AAA, could be a really big under the radar signing

I too hope that Jones could be that much needed solid RH bat in the Brewers lineup

I don’t believe he will see time at 3rd base - he’s listed as a 2nd baseman with “some OF experience

I’d be happy for Jones to be a RH option at DH

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, edfunderburk said:

Does this mean you have more confidence in the Brewers offense than the Reds pitching?

Cincinnati has been red-hot … the Cubs - despite a talented & more balanced roster - have never caught fire this season

I fear Cincy will trade prospects for quality pitching & Milwaukee will be a distant 2nd in the bland NLC

They would be pretty silly to start trading away their prospects this early in their rebuild. 

Abbott is good, but he’s still a rookie and he’s going to be running into a career high in in innings/innings limit sooner than later. Other than him, their pitching is suspect to horrendous. Like bottom 5 in baseball bad. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

8 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

Does this mean you have more confidence in the Brewers offense than the Reds pitching?

Cincinnati has been red-hot … the Cubs - despite a talented & more balanced roster - have never caught fire this season

I fear Cincy will trade prospects for quality pitching & Milwaukee will be a distant 2nd in the bland NLC

I'm just not a big believer in the Reds this season, though it's certainly possible they win the division. They've backed into a ton of wins lately by just scraping out one-run victory after one-run victory. At some point, that will end.

It's so much easier to fix an offense, especially at the corners as the Brewers need to do, than try to fix a rotation at the trade deadline. And as the Twins and Yankees found out last year, paying top-dollar for a starter at the deadline often blows up in your face.

I really like the Reds, maybe as soon as next season. I just don't see them putting it together in 2023 especially if guys like Woodruff come back and are their typical selves, which helps the Brewers create a gap.

[edfunderburk]

7 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don't see the Reds putting it together in 2023 - especially if guys like Woodruff come back

The last update on Woody indicated a pause in his progress … that he “wasn’t recovering well” after his recent addition of breaking balls to fastballs

I love Woody - by far my favorite Brewers pitcher - but I’m not confident he will help them much down the stretch this year

And … I hope I’m wrong just as I was with Yelich 😇 ⚾️

[82brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

They would be pretty silly to start trading away their prospects this early in their rebuild. 

Abbott is good, but he’s still a rookie and he’s going to be running into a career high in in innings/innings limit sooner than later. Other than him, their pitching is suspect to horrendous. Like bottom 5 in baseball bad. 

They will get Greene and Lodolo back and neither are either suspect or horrendous.

[82brewcrew82]

8 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm just not a big believer in the Reds this season, though it's certainly possible they win the division. They've backed into a ton of wins lately by just scraping out one-run victory after one-run victory. At some point, that will end.

It's so much easier to fix an offense, especially at the corners as the Brewers need to do, than try to fix a rotation at the trade deadline. And as the Twins and Yankees found out last year, paying top-dollar for a starter at the deadline often blows up in your face.

I really like the Reds, maybe as soon as next season. I just don't see them putting it together in 2023 especially if guys like Woodruff come back and are their typical selves, which helps the Brewers create a gap.

Woodruff coming back will hlep.  The Reds will get Greene and Lodolo back which is the equivalent or better.

[82brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

The last update on Woody indicated a pause in his progress … that he “wasn’t recovering well” after his recent addition of breaking balls to fastballs

I love Woody - by far my favorite Brewers pitcher - but I’m not confident he will help them much down the stretch this year

And … I hope I’m wrong just as I was with Yelich 😇 ⚾️

Woodruff played catch yesterday and was scheduled to throw a bullpen in the next couple of days.  I think the "pause" was a bit over blown.  Not everything is going to go perfectly in a recovery but not every adjustment is the same as the sky falling.

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

Woodruff coming back will hlep.  The Reds will get Greene and Lodolo back which is the equivalent or better.

No it isn’t. Woodruff is one of the very best pitchers in the game….

[Brewcrew82]

14 minutes ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

They will get Greene and Lodolo back and neither are either suspect or horrendous.

They’re not aces at this stage in their careers. Lodolo has actually been horrendous this year. Greene has been pretty good. But they’re both still pretty far off from returning…

 

[Brewcrew82]

Delete

[edfunderburk]

9 minutes ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

Woodruff played catch yesterday and was scheduled to throw a bullpen in the next couple of days.  I think the "pause" was a bit over blown.  Not everything is going to go perfectly in a recovery but not every adjustment is the same as the sky falling.

Who suggested the sky was falling? 

That’s quite a “dramatic” over response on your part