Article: Brewer Fanatic Draft Preview: Aidan Miller

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Aidan Miller is a prep third baseman from the Sunshine State, but is committed to play college ball for Arkansas. Miller possesses both the bat--including above-average power--and the arm to successfully man the hot corner.

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas_USA TODAY Sports

Over these final few days before it all happens, we're going to be providing you with profiles of 10 players the Brewers could take with the 18th overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. Today, it's an infielder who would take a good amount of money to sign, but who could turn out to a difference-making corner infielder.

Who is He?
Aidan Miller is the younger brother of Jackson Miller, a catcher in the Reds system who was drafted in the second round of the 2020 COVID-shortened draft. Currently ranked 17th on the Consensus Big Board, Aidan suffered a hamate injury this season and missed the majority of his final high school campaign. He impressed enough scouts last summer, though, to stay in first-round consideration despite the setback. He was the MVP of the All-American Game last Auguat, and was gaining steam as a potential top-10 selection before the hand injury. 

Why the Brewers Will Draft Him
Miller has the type of bat you dream about. Swinging from the right side, he generates easy power underpinned by strong exit velocities. His overall hit tool projects to be at least average, as well. For all intents and purposes, Miller is your prototypical third-base prospect.

There is no such thing as having too many excellent hitters in your lineup, and Miller could provide excellent value to the Brewers because of his injury and teams not being able to get a sustained look at him over the course of the spring to inspire the requisite confidence for first-round investment. It’s entirely possible that Miller would have cemented himself as a top-10 pick, had he just been healthy enough to compete.

Why the Brewers Won't Draft Him
First and foremost, the Brewers tend to lean heavily toward college hitters over prep hitters. Most indications are that the Brewers are expected to stick to the college hitter demographic again in the first round this year.

Additionally, the value of this potential first-round pick is almost entirely tied to his bat. While most scouts believe Miller will be able to stick at third base (at least early in his career), there are others who question the body enough to think that he’s destined to be a first baseman. He’s listed as 6’ 2”, 205 pounds, and nothing is too concerning about that, but he appears to have a frame that might outgrow those dimensions. At this point in his career, he would be more likely to get reps at shortstop than first base. But that will become a different story by the time he starts knocking on the big-league door.

Miller also has already turned 19, which doesn’t look as good in data-driven models. Older prospects get dinged. And it’s hard to ignore his lack of a senior season to round out and update the evaluation. Regardless of how much the Brewers (or any team) has seen Miller, they’ve seen him a lot less over the last four months than they would have seen a healthy high-school prospect.

What do you think of Miller as a prospect? How would you feel about him being the Brewers' pick at 18th overall? Join the discussion in the comments.

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Previous Draft Articles and Profiles
Brayden Taylor
Yohandy Morales 
Enrique Bradfield, Jr
Tommy Troy
Nolan Schanuel

Nygaard Mock Draft v.2

Consensus Big Board Profiles: 26-50
Consensus Big Board Profiles: 1-25

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[BlightyBrew]

This would be my pick if he is still available when the Brewers pick in the 1st round.

[brewers888]

On 7/5/2023 at 2:58 AM, BlightyBrew said:

This would be my pick if he is still available when the Brewers pick in the 1st round.

Exactly the type of player the Brewers need to add to their system but this front office only seems to like up the middle athletes and guys that can play multiple positions even if that player can't hit. 

 

[LouisEly]

The Brewers did draft Turang recently, so they are not averse to drafting HS position players.  But I think it would have to be someone who has plus defensive value.

[brewers888]

On 7/7/2023 at 1:42 PM, LouisEly said:

The Brewers did draft Turang recently, so they are not averse to drafting HS position players.  But I think it would have to be someone who has plus defensive value.

Why does every position player have to have plus defensive value. Is it really a bad thing to draft a bat first player once in awhile. Its great when a guy can play a bunch of different positions but when the bat isn't there the overall value isn't so great,

[sveumrules]

3 hours ago, brewers888 said:

Why does every position player have to have plus defensive value. Is it really a bad thing to draft a bat first player once in awhile. Its great when a guy can play a bunch of different positions but when the bat isn't there the overall value isn't so great,

If a player provides no defensive value, the bat has to carry the whole profile.

Recent “can’t miss” bat first picks like Alec Bohm (#3 overall in 2018, 1534 PA of 99 OPS+, 0.7 career WAR), Andrew Vaughn (#3 overall in 2019, 1392 PA of 103 OPS+, 0.5 career WAR) or Spencer Torkleson (#1 overall in 2020, 771 PA of 85 OPS+, -1.2 career WAR) are the highest profile recent examples of how big of an ask that is.

Hiura was supposed to be the safest bat in his draft class (and hey, his 1.5 WAR is still the highest of any 2017 1st round hitter), but with no position to play and streaky offense it’s hard to stay in the lineup (or MLB) to get consistent playing time.

[CheeseheadInQC]

4 hours ago, brewers888 said:

Why does every position player have to have plus defensive value. Is it really a bad thing to draft a bat first player once in awhile. Its great when a guy can play a bunch of different positions but when the bat isn't there the overall value isn't so great,

Their first three position players drafted just two years ago were Frelick, Black and Binelas. All were bat-first prospects.

[Playing Catch]

But if they drafted Miller, where would Luke Adams play?

It would be fun if they drafted Miller.

[LouisEly]

14 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Hiura was supposed to be the safest bat in his draft class (and hey, his 1.5 WAR is still the highest of any 2017 1st round hitter)

A bit OT, but holy crap, I would not have guessed that.  14 first round picks from that year so far have negative career bWAR.  Hiura was the 10th overall pick and currently has the 8th highest career bWAR (seventh if you exclude Rasmussen who didn't sign that year).  Not looking like a good draft year.

With the exception of 2005, it seems like the years that the Brewers get high draft picks are the years with the worst drafts (2003, 2004, 2016, 2017).