Forget AAA...Call up Jackson Chourio to the majors (soon)

[Brewcrew82]

Jackson Chourio, who clubbed his 16th HR of the season this evening, has made an absolute mockery of AA pitching over the past month at age 19, 4 months. He's now striking out less than 10% of the time. It doesn't look like AA has any more challenges to offer him...

Could the time be drawing near where we get to see him in Milwaukee? Until recently, I was thinking the earliest we would see him up is June of 2024, with him starting the year in AAA. However, this last month has altered my thought process. I truly think he could skip AAA and come up to the big league club right now and be the 2nd/3rd most productive outfielder on the roster. I wouldn't call him up quite yet, but I would seriously consider it at the end of the month if he keeps this up a la Garrett Mitchell. That way, you allow him to impact the playoff race and get his feet wet for a run at the OD roster and ROY in 2024, which could net us a comp pick. Could also potentially work out a 10+ year extension a la Julio Rodriguez, Corbin Carroll, etc, too, thereby negating any service time concerns. 

It's worth noting that Chourio now has 350 more at-bats at AA than Juan Soto...Juan Soto was called up to the majors from AA at age 19 and proceeded to OPS over .900 in 116 games...

 

[wiguy94]

There’s a big difference between the strength of AA in the back half of the season and the strength of AA at the beginning of the season. The league he’s dominating right now is not as strong as the league at the beginning of the season. 
 

He also struggled against the tacky balls which play far closer to MLB stuff and movement profiles than the mudded baseballs especially when taking into considering the previous mentioned better quality in AA at the beginning of the season. 

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

There’s a big difference between the strength of AA in the back half of the season and the strength of AA at the beginning of the season. The league he’s dominating right now is not as strong as the league at the beginning of the season. 
 

He also struggled against the tacky balls which play far closer to MLB stuff and movement profiles than the mudded baseballs especially when taking into considering the previous mentioned better quality in AA at the beginning of the season. 

True. But he's also 19 and developing rapidly. He's a different hitter now than he was at the beginning of the season. 

I wouldn't fault the Brewers if they just stayed the course. In fact, that's probably the prudent move. But it's no longer the stretch the stretch it was. I don't see why Juan Soto could do it, but Chourio couldn't. Chourio is that kind of talent, and I think it could help his development in the long run. 

I also don't see AAA offering any more of a challenge to him than AA currently is.

[82brewcrew82]

What has changed with Jackson form the first half to the second half that cannot be explained by decreased level of competition or different baseballs?  Serious question.  Has there been a mechanical adjustment or something like that?

[StearnsFTW]

This one I'm not down with.

 

I'd be fine with Black coming up and being given a shot at DH, but I think Chourio can wait about 10 more months.

 

Jmo.

[sveumrules]

41 minutes ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

What has changed with Jackson form the first half to the second half that cannot be explained by decreased level of competition or different baseballs?  Serious question.  Has there been a mechanical adjustment or something like that?

Haven’t watched any PAs besides on gameday here or there or highlights, but my best guess reading between the lines is, mostly a better understanding of how pitchers are attacking him, not chasing out of the zone, and doing damage when he does get pitches to hit.

Before tonight his season was almost two equal halves in terms of PAs…

April/May (195 PA)
254/308/418 (89 wRC+)
6.7 BB% | 24.6 K%

June/July (196 PA)
311/372/531 (136 wRC+)
8.2 BB% | 13.8 K% 
 

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Haven’t watched any PAs besides on gameday here or there or highlights, but my best guess reading between the lines is, mostly a better understanding of how pitchers are attacking him, not chasing out of the zone, and doing damage when he does get pitches to hit.

Before tonight his season was almost two equal halves in terms of PAs…

April/May (195 PA)
254/308/418 (89 wRC+)
6.7 BB% | 24.6 K%

June/July (196 PA)
311/372/531 (136 wRC+)
8.2 BB% | 13.8 K% 
 

Yep. That’s a 19 year old maturing rapidly in front of our very eyes.

[StearnsFTW]

10 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Haven’t watched any PAs besides on gameday here or there or highlights, but my best guess reading between the lines is, mostly a better understanding of how pitchers are attacking him, not chasing out of the zone, and doing damage when he does get pitches to hit.

Before tonight his season was almost two equal halves in terms of PAs…

April/May (195 PA)
254/308/418 (89 wRC+)
6.7 BB% | 24.6 K%

June/July (196 PA)
311/372/531 (136 wRC+)
8.2 BB% | 13.8 K% 
 

If that K rate stays close to that, he's a complete monster.  Even if it's like 17 or 18%.

 

Not likely, but if he's figured out what pitchers (who are five years older than him) are trying to do to him it's over. 

 

 

 

[adambr2]

Absolutely not. 

This is one we need to be patient with. Cost control is so important for us, and I'd much rather have an extra year of Chourio at age 26 than an extra year now at age 19. 

If he could walk onto that field and be a bona-fide star from Day 1? Then sure, maybe, but he's not. He's not ready. Don't get me wrong, he can probably step into an MLB lineup today and not embarrass himself, and maybe even be a benefit, but he's not going to get called up today and be anywhere near the player he has the upside to be in a few years. 

Stay the course with Chourio. AAA next year, maybe MLB by mid-season. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

 But it's no longer the stretch it was. 

I agree. I thought there was virtually no chance of him coming to Milwaukee this summer & having it be a good idea. I'm still against it, but if any deal/deals they're working on don't come to fruition & he continues to rake in the next week-10 days It's not an impossibility.

But I think Black would be the better dice roll.

 

[Brewcrew82]

29 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Absolutely not. 

This is one we need to be patient with. Cost control is so important for us, and I'd much rather have an extra year of Chourio at age 26 than an extra year now at age 19. 

If he could walk onto that field and be a bona-fide star from Day 1? Then sure, maybe, but he's not. He's not ready. Don't get me wrong, he can probably step into an MLB lineup today and not embarrass himself, and maybe even be a benefit, but he's not going to get called up today and be anywhere near the player he has the upside to be in a few years. 

Stay the course with Chourio. AAA next year, maybe MLB by mid-season. 

We could negate any concerns about service time by signing him to a 10+ year extension like Rodríguez, Carroll, etc. 

I personally think getting his feet wet in a playoff race is more valuable to his development than anything the minors can offer at this point.

[Jenkins5]

A baseball players best years usually come in prime (26-29 traditionally). Not sure why so many fans want as little of those prime years of Chourio.  Be cool to see him up, but even cooler to let him play in AAA until June & get extra season of prime Chourio. 
 

Sure, maybe he takes a deal like Acuna right away but hard to bank on that. If he is as good as we all hope, him hitting FA at 26 would be terrible imo

[Brewcrew82]

4 minutes ago, Jenkins5 said:

A baseball players best years usually come in prime (26-29 traditionally). Not sure why so many fans want as little of those prime years of Chourio.  Be cool to see him up, but even cooler to let him play in AAA until June & get extra season of prime Chourio. 
 

Sure, maybe he takes a deal like Acuna right away but hard to bank on that. If he is as good as we all hope, him hitting FA at 26 would be terrible imo

I can’t see why he wouldn’t take a Rodríguez, Carroll, Acuna deal. Brewers would have a good idea of that already.

If they offered him, I’d be inclined to think he accepts it.

[wiguy94]

8 minutes ago, Jenkins5 said:

A baseball players best years usually come in prime (26-29 traditionally). Not sure why so many fans want as little of those prime years of Chourio.  Be cool to see him up, but even cooler to let him play in AAA until June & get extra season of prime Chourio. 
 

Sure, maybe he takes a deal like Acuna right away but hard to bank on that. If he is as good as we all hope, him hitting FA at 26 would be terrible imo

Fangraphs actually did a study on this and 26 years old is typically a player’s peak, so 26-29 is not typically a baseball player’s best years.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/checking-in-on-the-aging-curve/

 

Edit: Also Chourio would not need to be down in AAA until June to get an extra season. You only need to be down for about 3 weeks to get the extra year of control. Brice Turang got the extra year of control this season when he was optioned in June.