Article: Now We Find Out Whether Sal Frelick Can Fight Back

[Matthew Trueblood]

Pitchers have figured out what they need to do against the Brewers' hottest rookie hitter. Now, he has to try to find a way to combat their changing approach.

Image courtesy of © Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Sal Frelick couldn't have hit the ground running much more smoothly. His famous debut was only part of the story. For a bit, he looked like the savior of an underperforming Brewers lineup. He hit .273/.436/.546 in his first 16 games, and although none of his three home runs were moonshots, he seemed to be answering the questions everyone had previously had about his upside. Craig Counsell showed his confidence in the new guy by installing him as the cleanup hitter.

Since then, Frelick has hit a rough patch. He's batted just .191/.261/.238 over his last six games, comprising 23 plate appearances. That sample, alone, is so tiny as to be meaningless, and anyway, he's walked twice and struck out only three times in that brief span. Dig in on a more granular level, though, and there are reasons to raise an eyebrow and wonder about that offensive upside, after all.

Frelick has yet to hit a ball even 106 miles per hour in the big leagues. That isn't great. The median maximum exit velocity for qualifying hitters this year is 111 MPH, and if Frelick qualified, he'd rank in the bottom 10 overall. It's a survivable flaw, though. That end of the list is populated by players who share a lot of Frelick's positive traits, like good plate discipline, excellent contact skills, and value on the bases or in the field. Steven Kwan, T.J. Friedl, Luis Arraez, and Alex Bregman are all in the same range. So, for that matter, is Brice Turang.

Those names highlight just how good a pure hitter one has to be to overcome the lack of legitimate power, though. Frelick can be valuable as an individual because of his great defensive skills, but if he wants to serve the team as the kind of major offensive threat they're hoping for down the stretch, his margin for error is pretty thin. He has to either gear up and start attacking the ball more, or get even better at controlling and defending the strike zone.

With wizard-like hands and wrists, Frelick avoids whiffing very much even on breaking balls and off-speed stuff, but it's only against fastballs that he does actual damage. His average exit velocity against everything else is 79.8 miles per hour, which not only ranks 496th of the 508 hitters who have had at least 10 batted balls on soft stuff this year, but actually (if infinitesimally) trails Mike Brosseau. 

Frelick doesn't crush balls in the heart of the strike zone, at least so far.

He also doesn't swing the bat very often, relative to the rest of the league, regardless of whether the ball is in the strike zone or not. He's certainly a patient hitter, but he hasn't yet shown that he can manage the line between patience and passivity well. As a result, pitchers get a lot of called strikes against him, as long as they stay out of the middle of the plate. They don't need to generate many whiffs from him if they can continue to pound the zone with strikes at which he doesn't even offer.

It's impossible to tell, at this early date, whether Frelick can adjust to and alter all of that. He's shown the bat speed to drive the ball out of the park, and to the pull field, but now, he has to show that he can sit on stuff that will be slow and bendy, rather than fast and straight, and still hit it with authority. He has to get more aggressive within the zone, in order to force pitchers to throw him fewer strikes. Again, he's going to put up good overall numbers, in categories like Wins Above Replacement, because he's a good contact hitter, baserunner, and outfielder. To have the impact the Brewers want over the final seven weeks, however, he has to quickly learn and improve upon the work he's already done.

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[KeithStone53151]

I think the path you outlined for him to be an impact bat is fairly accurate, however I just don't think that's a path he needs to go down to be what we need. According to fangraphs, through 23 games Frelick is at 1.1 WAR. I don't think Frelick is an 8 WAR player, he will probably settle in between 3 and 5 WAR depending on the year. We don't need a squad full of Yelich's and Burnes's to compete for a World Series, nor is it realistic. I don't know that Frelick should risk significantly changing an approach that has worked for him to this point. Especially right now. That seems like a great thing to work on in the off season and maybe next March through May. In mid-August and onward, stick to what's working and grind out the wins.

[Harold Hutchison]

I always felt he had that Ichiro/early Molitor skill set, and that is probably what he should stick with. His plate discipline is something that will also serve him well as a leadoff hitter. 

[brennse]

Is the author suggesting if Frelick doesn’t develop more power he won’t be as productive as we would like him to be.  If that is what he author is driving at, that is the heart of the Brewers problems can’t play small ball very well.  I have seen games where the Brewers put the ball in play and good things happen, I hate this hit a home run or nothing approach.  I would let Frelick be for the rest of the year if his approach needs to be changed do that in the off season or spring training. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

14 hours ago, KeithStone53151 said:

 I don't know that Frelick should risk significantly changing an approach that has worked for him to this point. 

He definitely shouldn't. Any HR power he shows will be a byproduct of pitchers knowing they have to throw him strikes or he'll be standing at 1B. All he needs to do is incrementally get better at what he's already good at & he'll be extremely valuable.

He also belongs higher than fourth in the batting order, which I assume is where he'll eventually wind up.

[Team Canada]

8 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

He also belongs higher than fourth in the batting order, which I assume is where he'll eventually wind up.

Agree, it seems like he and Yelich should be 1-2 in some order, then Contreras.

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, Team Canada said:

Agree, it seems like he and Yelich should be 1-2 in some order, then Contreras.

Counsell likes the L-R-L-R thing. So I don't know if we'll ever see them back-to-back. It certainly would fit their respective skillsets, though. 

Obviously I have no way of confirming this but I get the impression Yelich has decided he wants to leadoff, play LF, and sometimes DH & doesn't want to deviate from that.

[Team Canada]

You're right, and I'm not going to complain about Contreras being 2 instead of 3, but I don't understand why Frelick is sitting at 4 instead of 3 when he's a) better than Santana, and b) you could have L-R-L-R if he were at 3.

Probably the answer is he's a rookie and Counsell wants a veteran at 3? At least that's the reasoning I can come up with.

[Robocaller]

I really hope Frelick isn't overanalyzing his approach after a period of 23 at bats and knows that success always fluctuates.

 

[nate82]

On 8/16/2023 at 1:56 PM, brennse said:

Is the author suggesting if Frelick doesn’t develop more power he won’t be as productive as we would like him to be.  If that is what he author is driving at, that is the heart of the Brewers problems can’t play small ball very well.  I have seen games where the Brewers put the ball in play and good things happen, I hate this hit a home run or nothing approach.  I would let Frelick be for the rest of the year if his approach needs to be changed do that in the off season or spring training. 

Power isn't just home runs.  If Frelick doesn't develop some better exit velocities soon he is just going to be a slap hitting singles hitter.  Which is valuable as long as his speed holds up and that is only a hamstring injury away from being gone. 

Exit velocity or hard hit or squaring up or whatever you want to call it is crucial for a batter.  So him being at the bottom of the league in exit velocity is concerning and he needs to turn that around.  Right now Frelick is having a similar problem that Gwynn had earlier in his career and that is handling the inside fastball.  He has to learn how to turn on that pitch otherwise pitchers are going to take advantage of him there.  Add that up with his low exit velocity which means he is not getting the barrel of the bat to the ball.  He is just swinging and just barely making contact.

[Jim French Stepstool]

56 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

You're right, and I'm not going to complain about Contreras being 2 instead of 3, but I don't understand why Frelick is sitting at 4 instead of 3 when he's a) better than Santana, and b) you could have L-R-L-R if he were at 3.

Probably the answer is he's a rookie and Counsell wants a veteran at 3? At least that's the reasoning I can come up with.

He's certainly going to lean on vets like Canha & Santana, there's a precedent there. It's why we'll likely see Tellez in Texas even though he hasn't looked great at Nashville (although he scorched one in his last AB yesterday). But he just as easily could flip Frelick and Santana like you said. I'd definitely do it.

[rickh150]

8 hours ago, Robocaller said:

I really hope Frelick isn't overanalyzing his approach after a period of 23 at bats and knows that success always fluctuates.

 

If I am Frelick and am thrown into the fire… first place team hitting cleanup…I would be conflicted. Does CC EXPECT that I hit for some power? If I don’t, am I heading back to Nashville? Why oh why is he hitting in a spot he never has in his life (according to him)? Hit him one or two with an emphasis on just getting on base. Table setter. Sorry Yelich, it’s time to put the big boy pants on and hit 3rd.

My RHP lineup….with an emphasis on offense, get a lead, give it to the pen, and make defensive replacements late in RF and 3B. 

Frelick CF

Monasterio 2B

Yelich LF

Contreras C

Santana 1B

Canha RF

Black 3B

Hiura DH

Adames SS

 

 

[ClosetBrewerFan]

7 hours ago, rickh150 said:

If I am Frelick and am thrown into the fire… first place team hitting cleanup…I would be conflicted. Does CC EXPECT that I hit for some power? If I don’t, am I heading back to Nashville? Why oh why is he hitting in a spot he never has in his life (according to him)? Hit him one or two with an emphasis on just getting on base. Table setter. Sorry Yelich, it’s time to put the big boy pants on and hit 3rd.

My RHP lineup….with an emphasis on offense, get a lead, give it to the pen, and make defensive replacements late in RF and 3B. 

Frelick CF

Monasterio 2B

Yelich LF

Contreras C

Santana 1B

Canha RF

Black 3B

Hiura DH

Adames SS

 

 

You are assuming Counsell has not talked to Frelick about this.  That seems unlikely.  Counsell is called a players manager.  I'm sure they have had a conversation about what the expectations are for him.

[yourout]

8 hours ago, rickh150 said:

If I am Frelick and am thrown into the fire… first place team hitting cleanup…I would be conflicted. Does CC EXPECT that I hit for some power? If I don’t, am I heading back to Nashville? Why oh why is he hitting in a spot he never has in his life (according to him)? Hit him one or two with an emphasis on just getting on base. Table setter. Sorry Yelich, it’s time to put the big boy pants on and hit 3rd.

My RHP lineup….with an emphasis on offense, get a lead, give it to the pen, and make defensive replacements late in RF and 3B. 

Frelick CF

Monasterio 2B

Yelich LF

Contreras C

Santana 1B

Canha RF

Black 3B

Hiura DH

Adames SS

 

 

I like it. That's probably why it won't happen.

[rickh150]

7 hours ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

You are assuming Counsell has not talked to Frelick about this.  That seems unlikely.  Counsell is called a players manager.  I'm sure they have had a conversation about what the expectations are for him.

My expectation is that little power is coming out of the 4 spot when we should have a guy or two on base.

[Robocaller]

22 hours ago, rickh150 said:

If I am Frelick and am thrown into the fire… first place team hitting cleanup…I would be conflicted. Does CC EXPECT that I hit for some power? If I don’t, am I heading back to Nashville? Why oh why is he hitting in a spot he never has in his life (according to him)? Hit him one or two with an emphasis on just getting on base. Table setter. Sorry Yelich, it’s time to put the big boy pants on and hit 3rd.

My RHP lineup….with an emphasis on offense, get a lead, give it to the pen, and make defensive replacements late in RF and 3B. 

Frelick CF

Monasterio 2B

Yelich LF

Contreras C

Santana 1B

Canha RF

Black 3B

Hiura DH

Adames SS

 

 

There is zero reason to believe Black would help, and it starts his service time.