Wed. 8/23: T-Rat Matinee, There's No "Debate" Until Tonight in Wisconsin

[Ro Mueller]

The hitters failed to advance the ghost runner (Areinamo) - fly out, K - but he scores the walk-off run anyway on 2 wild pitches!

We needed that and we’ll TAKE it. 7-6 Mudcats victory!

[Joseph Zarr]

1 hour ago, damuelle said:

The hitters failed to advance the ghost runner (Areinamo) - fly out, K - but he scores the walk-off run anyway on 2 wild pitches!

We needed that and we’ll TAKE it. 7-6 Mudcats victory!

[Joseph Zarr]

Thankful to end my day checking in here moments after moving the 'Road Closed' Evac Level 3 sign a mile up the road. A Mudcats 'W' to end the quick read? Chef's Kiss. 

[BrewerFan]

8 hours ago, damuelle said:

It appears that SS Eric Brown Jr. was a late scratch, with Robert Moore shifting over to SS and Jheremy Vargas getting a chance to play 2B.

Vargas just came through with a 2-run single in the 6th inning to re-take the lead 4-3.

Cameron Wagoner continued his recent solid run: 5 IP, 1 R, 2 H, 4 BB, 5 Ks.

What is Brown Jr's...upside or a comp for you?

I'm not very high on him, but not for a good reason.

He seems like a guy who's similar to Black in that he's patient, makes good contact, has a little bit of a funky swing/stance(Black the big step, Brown the step up). But Brown Jr is clearly more of a sure thing as a MIFer and it seems like he has really quick wrists.

I see big bust potential, but if you tell me that bat is a legitimate 55 or 60 as I see it graded, them I'm thinking more of a Marcus Semien. But I'm a bit skeptical and I seem to miss a lot of his games. But the offensive profile and athleticism seems to be...as close a comp as I can think up in a positive light.

I just haven't seen the same things in Brown Jr to put him in the top ~8-10 that others have. So curious to hear a unique breakdown from someone who's watched him closer. 

 

Quote

Scouting Grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50

Semien has been a revelation since signing as a sixth-round pick in 2011. After totaling 10 home runs in three college seasons at California, he has gone deep 35 times in his two full pro seasons. Two of those long balls came during Semien's first big league callup last September.

Semien is more of a tablesetter than a slugger, though, and he led the Minor Leagues with 110 runs in 2013. He controls the strike zone well and repeatedly barrels balls with his compact stroke. Semien enhances his average speed with good instincts on the bases.

Drafted as a shortstop, Semien played a lot of second base last year and mostly third base while with Chicago. He profiles best as a second baseman, offensively and defensively, but he has the savvy to get the job done at shortstop. Semien has nothing left to prove in the Minors and only needs to have the White Sox clear a spot for him in their lineup.

 

 

[jay87shot]

1 hour ago, BrewerFan said:

What is Brown Jr's...upside or a comp for you?

I'm not very high on him, but not for a good reason.

He seems like a guy who's similar to Black in that he's patient, makes good contact, has a little bit of a funky swing/stance(Black the big step, Brown the step up). But Brown Jr is clearly more of a sure thing as a MIFer and it seems like he has really quick wrists.

I see big bust potential, but if you tell me that bat is a legitimate 55 or 60 as I see it graded, them I'm thinking more of a Marcus Semien. But I'm a bit skeptical and I seem to miss a lot of his games. But the offensive profile and athleticism seems to be...as close a comp as I can think up in a positive light.

I just haven't seen the same things in Brown Jr to put him in the top ~8-10 that others have. So curious to hear a unique breakdown from someone who's watched him closer. 

 

 

He has had a rollercoaster of a year, really bad start was on fire in the middle of the year and then injuries. If he can be more of that middle of the year player he will be a quality mlb player. Maybe Marcus Semien before 2019, or just without the 30+ HR potential is a decent comp.. I am thinking he will be an ideal candidate for the Arizona Fall League and we might get a little better insight from that if he can stay healthy.

[Ro Mueller]

3 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

What is Brown Jr's...upside or a comp for you?

I'm not very high on him, but not for a good reason.

He seems like a guy who's similar to Black in that he's patient, makes good contact, has a little bit of a funky swing/stance(Black the big step, Brown the step up). But Brown Jr is clearly more of a sure thing as a MIFer and it seems like he has really quick wrists.

I see big bust potential, but if you tell me that bat is a legitimate 55 or 60 as I see it graded, them I'm thinking more of a Marcus Semien. But I'm a bit skeptical and I seem to miss a lot of his games. But the offensive profile and athleticism seems to be...as close a comp as I can think up in a positive light.

I just haven't seen the same things in Brown Jr to put him in the top ~8-10 that others have. So curious to hear a unique breakdown from someone who's watched him closer. 

 

 

Yeah, I don’t yet know what to make of the Brown pick and his subsequent development. His clearest tool is baserunning (49 SBs in 54 attempts in 80 games). Then the contact is decent, but he’s not off-the charts on AVG or drawing the level of walks I’d expected.

With the slight offseason swing adjustment, I guess he was over-thinking things, so stunk at the plate in April 2023, but he’s been better since.

Black and Brown (like a Dr. Seuss book) received similar singing bonuses, but Black is 2 levels above Brown and just 5 months older than him. Black’s drawing materially more walks and showing more power, though Brown’s a better defender.

I suspect the team is expecting Brown to be a .310 hitter with 10 home runs who also learns to draw more walks. So it’s the hits and walks that need to increase.

AA will be a huge test for him next year. Anything below the Southern League average OPS for the then-23 year old Brown would be a disappointment, I believe, while he’s also supposed to hold down the SS position all season.

[sveumrules]

Think Brown just needs to stay healthy, really.

Only real difference this year from a statistical standpoint was a drop in power output, which could be attributed to the slow start with the new swing and then getting hurt just as he was heating up (160 wRC+ over his 126 PA prior to injury)…

22 CAR
262/370/440
11.0 BB% | 17.0 K%

23 WIS
262/364/342
11.4 BB% | 17.7 K%

If he can put up a line for Biloxi in 24, like he did for Carolina in 22, while playing SS everyday and stealing bags like crazy he could be another Top 100 guy this time next year.

[BrewerFan]

Thanks. I think I've been a little lower on him than I should, but he could still make an outstanding 2B at the MLB level(I understand he's a SS, but he's not a Turang level defender from what I understand and have seen...which again, isn't much). 

AA is like...midterms. You get an idea of how we'll you're doing before then, but if you ace your midterms or do well, there's a pretty good chance you'll do well on the finals(unless you're held back several years).

So I guess hope for the best next year. Still a pretty good walk rate and even if the SLG doesn't get back up to .450 or so, if he's hitting ~.260/.360 and playing good defense up the middle, stealing bags...those players always have value.

[BrewerFan]

15 hours ago, jay87shot said:

He has had a rollercoaster of a year, really bad start was on fire in the middle of the year and then injuries. If he can be more of that middle of the year player he will be a quality mlb player. Maybe Marcus Semien before 2019, or just without the 30+ HR potential is a decent comp.. I am thinking he will be an ideal candidate for the Arizona Fall League and we might get a little better insight from that if he can stay healthy.

I definitely wasn't thinking he'd hit 45HRs or have big time power(though, you never know, very few project to hit for average and THAT type of power). It just seemed like their scouting reports were similar.

 

Brown does have lightening quick hands, so...maybe the power becomes a 45/50?