Game 5: Packers @ Raiders - Monday, October 9th 7:15 PM

[adambr2]

26 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Honestly they also seem to be better right away than they used to be. 

Yeah, I'd agree with that. Stroud looks really good. Purdy looks amazing. Richardson looks like the real deal, he just can't stay healthy. 

I don't know why there's this perception that NFL quarterbacks need a huge learning curve and a long time to know if they're any good when clearly some indeed are good right away. 

[CheezWizHed]

Again, I don't know that QBs are any more ready to start in the NFL today than they ever were... Some will be; some won't be; some won't ever be.  I think 3 years is a bit steep to be "the norm".  It worked for Rodgers.  Love's initial returns aren't very positive. Favre clearly benefited from 1 year.  Peyton Manning was ready almost immediately. Each individual will have their own growth curve.  Ryan Leaf would never be ready. Nor Manziel. 

But I don't think it is odd to say a QB could use a year of development and learning before being thrown into the fire of the NFL.  It is basically like going from AAA to MLB - the biggest jump.  Especially those QBs that are going to play on bad teams (i.e. #1 draft picks).  Sitting a year to understand your protection calls is probably a self-preservation move.  Lots of QBs make bad habits that derail their development too. 

My point about not many QBs win the SB on a rookie contract is simply... wining the SB is hard.  And it takes a few years of development to be that top echelon to do it.  The ones that have are almost always sure fire HOF QBs.  So while I don't doubt the logic behind "cheap QB" better chances... the inexperience of that cheap QB normally derails the team's chance at some point. 

[CheezWizHed]

4 hours ago, adambr2 said:

Warner in 2000, Brady in 2002, Roethlisberger in 2005, Wilson in 2014, Mahomes in 2020. Doesn't seem comparatively that rare to me given the long career span of most Super Bowl QBs. And a number of others who were there but didn't win. 

This has been all the while that Mahomes and Brady have virtually had a monopoly on one of them appearing in the SB the last decade. 

I couldn't remember the whole list but I did the analysis a couple years ago. Best way to win a SB is: Have a HOF level QB. 

In the past - i.e. Marino and Elway were HOF QBs that couldn't win a SB to save their life (until Elway finally did it late in his career which took a HOF level RB to get him there). While QBs like AIkman (highly overrated IMO) won many due to the run game and big defense.  

Football is so passing focused now that the running game is almost an afterthought. Warner's Rams teams might have been the first team transitioning towards that.  With rule changes (e.g. increased PI rules, QB protections), the league doubled down on high offense.  But the result is that the SB champion typically goes to the team with the best QB at that moment.  How many SB MVPs of the last 20 years weren't QBs?

So yes, Mahomes and Brady have a virtual monopoly on SB wins because they were most often the best QB of the moment.  I think those ironically are the only two that won a SB before the final year of their rookie contract also.  Inexperienced QBs have a tough time beating the best of the best.  

So if you want to deploy the QB on the rookie contract rule, you better have an awesome defense or you better find that next "special HOF-level" QB. 

[adambr2]

51 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Again, I don't know that QBs are any more ready to start in the NFL today than they ever were... Some will be; some won't be; some won't ever be.  I think 3 years is a bit steep to be "the norm".  It worked for Rodgers.  Love's initial returns aren't very positive. Favre clearly benefited from 1 year.  Peyton Manning was ready almost immediately. Each individual will have their own growth curve.  Ryan Leaf would never be ready. Nor Manziel. 

But I don't think it is odd to say a QB could use a year of development and learning before being thrown into the fire of the NFL.  It is basically like going from AAA to MLB - the biggest jump.  Especially those QBs that are going to play on bad teams (i.e. #1 draft picks).  Sitting a year to understand your protection calls is probably a self-preservation move.  Lots of QBs make bad habits that derail their development too. 

My point about not many QBs win the SB on a rookie contract is simply... wining the SB is hard.  And it takes a few years of development to be that top echelon to do it.  The ones that have are almost always sure fire HOF QBs.  So while I don't doubt the logic behind "cheap QB" better chances... the inexperience of that cheap QB normally derails the team's chance at some point. 

Of course. But I don't think most teams start a rookie QB with the expectation of winning a Super Bowl that year. There's usually some growing pains, and in some rarer cases, it's surprisingly rather seamless. But really, you're getting them those in-game reps that they need to get better. Wouldn't you say that, developmentally, a QB in general is going to benefit more from a season or two of live game reps, even if they struggle at first, as opposed to sitting on the sidelines for those years and only learning in practice?

[LouisEly]

1 hour ago, adambr2 said:

Of course. But I don't think most teams start a rookie QB with the expectation of winning a Super Bowl that year. There's usually some growing pains, and in some rarer cases, it's surprisingly rather seamless. But really, you're getting them those in-game reps that they need to get better. Wouldn't you say that, developmentally, a QB in general is going to benefit more from a season or two of live game reps, even if they struggle at first, as opposed to sitting on the sidelines for those years and only learning in practice?

I don't think there's enough evidence to say either way.  There aren't many examples though of players who struggled/were mediocre their first two years and then became very good.  Plenty of examples of guys who were mediocre and never got better who started their first year.

2009: Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman (Stafford the other 1st round QB)
2010: Tim Tebow (should not have been a 1st round pick; Bradford the other QB but injuries were more the cause of mediocrity)
2011: Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder (Cam Newton the other 1st round QB)
2012: Robert Griffin III, Brandon Weeden (Andrew Luck, Ryan Tannehill)
2013: E.J. Manuel
2014: Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater
2015: Jamies Winston, Marcus Mariotta
2016: Paxton Lynch (Jared Goff, Carson Wentz)
2017: Mitch Trubisky (Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson)
2018: Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen (Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson)
2019: Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins (flamed out for other reasons) (Kyler Murray)

Unless I'm misunderstanding you, I don't see many examples of guys who struggled/were mediocre their first two years while they "got some reps" who then went on to become good QBs.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Josh Allen is one that looked rough and ascended to the top.

[CheezWizHed]

4 hours ago, adambr2 said:

Of course. But I don't think most teams start a rookie QB with the expectation of winning a Super Bowl that year. There's usually some growing pains, and in some rarer cases, it's surprisingly rather seamless. But really, you're getting them those in-game reps that they need to get better. Wouldn't you say that, developmentally, a QB in general is going to benefit more from a season or two of live game reps, even if they struggle at first, as opposed to sitting on the sidelines for those years and only learning in practice?

I think each QB is going to be different.  If a QB isn't ready to run the offense, isn't ready to read the D, isn't ready to know his protections... I think putting him out there early is a danger - physically and psychologically. 

Would Rodgers been great from Day 1?  Maybe.  Did he benefit from sitting one year?  I think so.  Did he need to sit three?  Probably not.  Likewise with Love, I doubt 3 years was best for him, but certainly one or two years helped him.  Would Ryan Leaf been better if he sat and learned from a vet first?  Or Zach Wilson? Peyton Manning was clearly ready to start day 1, but not all QBs are coming from college. 

Obviously, it is impossible to truly know... but giving them a year to learn and grow a la Mahomes, isn't the worst thing for a young QB.