The Tyler Black and Brock Wilken factor in trades

[Scooterfletcher]

Black appears ready to take an everyday job starting on opening day.   The options for position for him could be 3B, 2b or 1b.   But his bat is clearly ready and he needs to be penciled in at one of those spots.

Brock Wilken looked good out the gate too and appears likely to do Aa to start and likely promoted to Aaa at some point in 24.   Does this mean we should not be searching so hard for IF help with our trade chips and should be ok penciling Black in somewhere and stop gapping another IF spot for Wilken to claim in 2025?  

[TURBO]

All I know is that I don't want to trade either of them...

I do think Wilken is going to push his way onto this roster either at the end of 2024, or surely at the beginning of 2025.

[BrewerFan]

18 minutes ago, TURBO said:

All I know is that I don't want to trade either of them...

I do think Wilken is going to push his way onto this roster either at the end of 2024, or surely at the beginning of 2025.

This year? That's pretty optimistic. I certainly hope you're right. 

[nate82]

You can never have too many infielders.  There will always be an injury or someone just doesn’t perform or needs someone to platoon with.  You can also rotate players between DH and an INF spot.

I wouldn’t worry about the position the Brewers get back in any trade.  If the best prospect is an INF great if they are an OF that is also great or a pitcher which also would be great.

[Brewcrew82]

16 minutes ago, nate82 said:

You can never have too many infielders.  There will always be an injury or someone just doesn’t perform or needs someone to platoon with.  You can also rotate players between DH and an INF spot.

I wouldn’t worry about the position the Brewers get back in any trade.  If the best prospect is an INF great if they are an OF that is also great or a pitcher which also would be great.

I would be somewhat frustrated if it's an OF, unless they proceed to trade at least one of Wiemer, Frelick, and Mitchell.

[BrewerFan]

14 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I would be somewhat frustrated if it's an OF, unless they proceed to trade at least one of Wiemer, Frelick, and Mitchell.

Ok...so you'll be upset if they trade for Soto! 

Why do you hate the Brewers? You're as bad as our cheap owner who hasn't even made an offer to Ohtani...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(I trust that I don't need to put this in blue for you). 

[CheezWizHed]

I don't understand the fear of "blocking" prospects.  What is the worst thing that happens? We have too many good players?  If we have a chance to get a good 1B/3B take it!

A game of pretend:

• Arnold makes shrewd moves this winter and steals Bobby BigStick in a trade.  The switching hitting, gold-glove-on-both-hands 1B crushes the ball sits happily in the middle of Milwaukee's lineup.
• In an unheralded move, Arnold snags FA Freddy FarHitter to play 3B.  "There we go dumpster diving again!" the fans complain.  But happily, Freddy, who is inspired by the nightly view of racing sausages,  finally breaks out the loads of potential and represents the Brewers at the All-Star Game.
• Amazingly, Black makes OD roster for the Brewers after an amazing spring training outing.  Black ends up taking a platoon position with BB and FF to start the season.  Black also shows his prowess and pushes Chourio for  rookie of the year candidate.
• Head Coach Murphy, who is slightly embarrassed at this sudden wealth of riches at the corner INF positions,  is challenged to find enough ABs to satisfy them all.  Alas, no one has really shown up at 2B offensively, so we see Black showing up there more and more.  Thankfully the Brewers invest in positional versitility!
• Craig Counsel becomes insanely jealous at the sudden riches of offense Murphy enjoys. He cries every day as he comes to work at Wrigley. 
• Meanwhile Wilken continues to crush it at AAA pushing for the inevitable "blockage" at the MLB level.
• Fast-forward to 2024 Matt Arnold suddenly realizes why Tampa Bay is able to trade away MLB talent... because they continue to have young talent grow and develop.  He decides he is able to trade away one of BB, FF, TB, or BW to shore up pitching.

Moral of the story: You can never have enough talent. 

[Scooterfletcher]

2 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I don't understand the fear of "blocking" prospects.  What is the worst thing that happens? We have too many good players?  If we have a chance to get a good 1B/3B take it!

A game of pretend:

• Arnold makes shrewd moves this winter and steals Bobby BigStick in a trade.  The switching hitting, gold-glove-on-both-hands 1B crushes the ball sits happily in the middle of Milwaukee's lineup.
• In an unheralded move, Arnold snags FA Freddy FarHitter to play 3B.  "There we go dumpster diving again!" the fans complain.  But happily, Freddy, who is inspired by the nightly view of racing sausages,  finally breaks out the loads of potential and represents the Brewers at the All-Star Game.
• Amazingly, Black makes OD roster for the Brewers after an amazing spring training outing.  Black ends up taking a platoon position with BB and FF to start the season.  Black also shows his prowess and pushes Chourio for  rookie of the year candidate.
• Head Coach Murphy, who is slightly embarrassed at this sudden wealth of riches at the corner INF positions,  is challenged to find enough ABs to satisfy them all.  Alas, no one has really shown up at 2B offensively, so we see Black showing up there more and more.  
• Craig Counsel becomes insanely jealous at the sudden riches of offense Murphy enjoys. He cries every day as he comes to work at Wrigley. 
• Meanwhile Wilken continues to crush it at AAA pushing for the inevitable "blockage" at the MLB level.
• Fast-forward to 2024 Matt Arnold suddenly realizes why Tampa Bay is able to trade away MLB talent... because they continue to have young talent grow and develop.  He decides he is able to trade away one of BB, FF, TB, or BW to shore up pitching.

Moral of the story: You can never have enough talent. 

We have been drafting and obtaining OF talent and now need to probably deal one maybe two.   This theory is going to come to test this offseason.   If Mitchell/Wiemer are in the minors with the other platooning, I feel we didn’t succeed in our hoarding.

[CheezWizHed]

4 minutes ago, Scooterfletcher said:

We have been drafting and obtaining OF talent and now need to probably deal one maybe two.   This theory is going to come to test this offseason.   If Mitchell/Wiemer are in the minors with the other platooning, I feel we didn’t succeed in our hoarding.

To maximize Wiemer, he needs to work on his swing.  That is best done at AAA.  It would be surprising if Mitchell is at AAA and really there is no reason for him to be.  We are setup well to have an OF with Frelick-Mitchell-Chourio with TT as the 4th and  Yelich as the DH/5th OF. 

In the 1980s, it was common to have one starter at one position for 130+ games/season.  The Brewers haven't done that in a long time.  People move around, get days off, and tend to be much fresher in Sept/Oct as a result.

But I will also say that it wouldn't surprise me to see one or two OFer go in trades to shore up our SP rotation. Which was the point of my tale. 😉

[brewcrewdue80]

Mitchell has a 35+pct k rate.  Wiemer is just under 29pct.  ML level.  One is coming off a 5month injury.  I'd expect both to be optioned to AAA to start season.  Mitchell sits at 1.040 clock. Wiemer exactly 1.00.  (Fangraphs #s)  Frelick .072 fwiw.

Mitchell has high luck working for his positive stats that at 35+pct k rate will regress. His speed may be affected post injury for forever or for just somepoint this following year.  Yelich has never recovered fully from his knee cap.  You gotta feel cautionary towards Mitchell.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

57 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Mitchell has a 35+pct k rate.  Wiemer is just under 29pct.  ML level.  One is coming off a 5month injury.  I'd expect both to be optioned to AAA to start season.  Mitchell sits at 1.040 clock. Wiemer exactly 1.00.  (Fangraphs #s)  Frelick .072 fwiw.

Mitchell has high luck working for his positive stats that at 35+pct k rate will regress. His speed may be affected post injury for forever or for just somepoint this following year.  Yelich has never recovered fully from his knee cap.  You gotta feel cautionary towards Mitchell.

Mitchell had a shoulder injury. That shouldn't have any effect on his speed.

[Fear The Chorizo]

9 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Mitchell had a shoulder injury. That shouldn't have any effect on his speed.

I think Mitchell has the higher ceiling, but the injuries are concerning and with Chourio likely locked in as this team's CF through what will be both Mitchell and Wiemer's primes, at least one of them is likely to be traded because they are both more valuable as CFs due to their defense.  The Brewers could find a way to hoard all these young OFs, but they would be better off using that depth to bolster pitching or corner IF talent at the MLB level via trade, IMO.

 

I think both Black and Wilken will be in Milwaukee by 2025, and Black is knocking on that door already.  If Black isn't a total butcher defensively at 3rd, Wilken could move over to 1B.

[DR28]

********, get really excited thinking about Black at 3B most likely 2024 and Wilken at 1B in 2025!!

Hopefully we have solved our blackholes at these positions for years to come.

[brewcrewdue80]

2 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Mitchell had a shoulder injury. That shouldn't have any effect on his speed.

Whoops was the leg an earlier injury predraft/1st year I'm thinking of?  

 

1 hour ago, DR28 said:

********, get really excited thinking about Black at 3B most likely 2024 and Wilken at 1B in 2025!!

Hopefully we have solved our blackholes at these positions for years to come.

Sorry to temper some of the enthusiasm. Black came in with a .938 fielding pct. And a 2.05 range factor at 3b according to BRef.

Monasterio registered .960 after a .974 fielding pct in minors. With a range factor above 2.54.  I think trial and error will continue to show Black as a 1b/2b fielder. I thought part of scouting read his arm strength destined him towards 2b with the bat not up to "MLB in past" standards for 1b. Pencil him in more imo at 1b/2b. With the caveat he has played games at 3b to do so.  You gotta remember some of moving him around the inf is to bring his bat in to Milws lineup the sooner the better. 

[Scooterfletcher]

My “dream” infield solution at this time next year has:

1B) Yelich gets a 1B glove next year not this year

2b) Black ends up most comfortable with the glove here

Ss) Turang takes over here after an Adames trade shortly and has a good enough year offensively 

3b) Wilken continues his ascent and is ready on opening day unless we manipulate for service time

Utility : Montaserio and Dunn

 

[BrewerFan]

7 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Mitchell has a 35+pct k rate.  Wiemer is just under 29pct.  ML level.  One is coming off a 5month injury.  I'd expect both to be optioned to AAA to start season.  Mitchell sits at 1.040 clock. Wiemer exactly 1.00.  (Fangraphs #s)  Frelick .072 fwiw.

Mitchell has high luck working for his positive stats that at 35+pct k rate will regress. His speed may be affected post injury for forever or for just somepoint this following year.  Yelich has never recovered fully from his knee cap.  You gotta feel cautionary towards Mitchell.

It was a shoulder injury and he was back last year and running. Why would his speed be impacted by that?

Also, don't think it was ever the knee that gave Yelich problems(use the same advanced analytics to analyze his '20, '21 ,'22 seasons and you'll see it was more likely the back issues...which will likely continue to flare up making DH or 1B a much better position). 

[Brewcrew82]

Need to give up on Yelich to 1B pipe-dream. It's never happening. Just like he's never getting traded. 

Would be the worst thing to do for a guy with his back issues. If he's ever moving from LF, it's straight to DH. We've finally got a version of Yelich where we're getting decent value out of that contract. Best to not mess with that. 

[BrewerFan]

5 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I think both Black and Wilken will be in Milwaukee by 2025, and Black is knocking on that door already.  If Black isn't a total butcher defensively at 3rd, Wilken could move over to 1B.

I've seen multiple people suggest this, but doesn't Wilken have a 70-arm and move pretty well at 3B? 

I think Black can handle 3rd and he's good enough, but Wilken SOUNDS like he's got much more upside at 3B defensively. I just think Wilken is very likely a year away. If he makes his debut this year, we got pretty lucky getting him where we did(or we're really bad, but I'm gonna hope it's the prior). 

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Need to give up on Yelich to 1B pipe-dream. It's never happening. Just like he's never getting traded. 

Would be the worst thing to do for a guy with his back issues. If he's ever moving from LF, it's straight to DH. We've finally got a version of Yelich where we're getting decent value out of that contract. Best to not mess with that. 

How would playing 1B be "the worst thing to do for a guy with his back issues?" You're putting a lot more onto your back running up against the wall and coming up and making a throw into 2B or wherever than you are at 1B.

I don't understand that logic, nor do I understand the insistence that we'd never move Yelich to 1B.

If they gave Braun a 1B glove later in his career, I don't see why they wouldn't try it with a guy who was drafted as a 1B at some point. I don't think most people foresaw Chourio getting extended this soon(hoped, but thought he'd start the year in the minors) and '25 was more likely for a transition...but it's not like when some(one) of us wanted to move Braun to 3B. It's a pretty reasonable suggestion...and I imagine it'll become more obvious if or when you see Chourio, Frelick and then Mitchell, Wiemer or Taylor in the OF together. 

 

Quote

@Scooterfletcher

3b) Wilken continues his ascent and is ready on opening day unless we manipulate for service time

 

How about Wilken flies up the prospect lists...and then you just lock him up ala Jackson Chourio? 

Get another position locked up long term.

[Brewcrew82]

23 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

How would playing 1B be "the worst thing to do for a guy with his back issues?" You're putting a lot more onto your back running up against the wall and coming up and making a throw into 2B or wherever than you are at 1B.

I don't understand that logic, nor do I understand the insistence that we'd never move Yelich to 1B.

If they gave Braun a 1B glove later in his career, I don't see why they wouldn't try it with a guy who was drafted as a 1B at some point. I don't think most people foresaw Chourio getting extended this soon(hoped, but thought he'd start the year in the minors) and '25 was more likely for a transition...but it's not like when some(one) of us wanted to move Braun to 3B. It's a pretty reasonable suggestion...and I imagine it'll become more obvious if or when you see Chourio, Frelick and then Mitchell, Wiemer or Taylor in the OF together. 

 

How about Wilken flies up the prospect lists...and then you just lock him up ala Jackson Chourio? 

Get another position locked up long term.

The logic: You're moving and bending down a lot more than in the OF. Involved in more plays, More violent actions on quicker hit balls, etc. Seems pretty straightforward to me. And how many times is Yelich actually running back into the wall over the course of the season at a high enough speed to potentially injure his back? You can probably count them on one hand, if that...And we don't even know if Yelich would be a serviceable 1B. Just because he played it in HS, doesn't mean he can do so at a major league caliber level. 

How many games did Braun actually play at 1B? That's the point. Especially with the DH now an option, which it wasn't until Braun's final season. That's how you manage a guy with chronic back issues whose value predominantly comes from the bat. 

[BrewerFan]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

The logic: you're moving and bending down a lot more than in the OF. Involved in more plays, etc. Seems pretty straightforward to me. And how many times is Yelich actually running back into the wall over the course of the season at a quick enough speed to potentially injure his back? And we don't even know if Yelich would be a serviceable 1B. Just because he played it in HS, doesn't mean he can do so at a major league level. 

How many games did Braun actually play at 1B? That's the point. Especially with the DH now an option, which it wasn't until Braun's final season. That's how you manage a guy with chronic back issues whose value predominantly comes from the bat. 

More than you are at 1B...and I'd actually say fairly often. It doesn't need to be slamming into the wall like Frelick did(several times) last year, but going back to the wall and jumping or just using it to stop your momentum, that's going to put a lot more stress on a back than catching a ball and occasionally reaching for it. And I also included the throws that put stress on the back. A lot more than bending down to pick a ball in the dirt. 

As for not knowing if he'll be a good 1B? Yeah, you can say that about anyone at any position. But there's a reason players more to 1B later in their career. It's the easiest position on the field to play...by a pretty wide margin. And I'd say if you can move other players there, good chance you can move a guy who was held in high enough regard to get drafted in the 1st round having played 1B in HS. 

But sure, maybe he isn't good. I don't think that makes it a "pipe dream." Trading Yelich...that's a pipe dream. Moving him from LF to 1B seems like a logical step as he moves into his mid 30s and the later years of his contract/career. 

[Brewcrew82]

15 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

More than you are at 1B...and I'd actually say fairly often. It doesn't need to be slamming into the wall like Frelick did(several times) last year, but going back to the wall and jumping or just using it to stop your momentum, that's going to put a lot more stress on a back than catching a ball and occasionally reaching for it. And I also included the throws that put stress on the back. A lot more than bending down to pick a ball in the dirt. 

As for not knowing if he'll be a good 1B? Yeah, you can say that about anyone at any position. But there's a reason players more to 1B later in their career. It's the easiest position on the field to play...by a pretty wide margin. And I'd say if you can move other players there, good chance you can move a guy who was held in high enough regard to get drafted in the 1st round having played 1B in HS. 

But sure, maybe he isn't good. I don't think that makes it a "pipe dream." Trading Yelich...that's a pipe dream. Moving him from LF to 1B seems like a logical step as he moves into his mid 30s and the later years of his contract/career. 

Bottom line is you're involved in a lot more plays at 1B....That's added wear and tear on the back and just as violent at times as crashing into the wall, which Yelich most definitely doesn't do that often. 

It's not near as logical as moving him from LF to DH my man...Unless the Brewers plan on signing a Kyle Schwarber any time soon. If it was in the cards, you wouldn't have gotten the answer from the Brewers brass that you got this week at the Winter Meetings. It is, in fact, a pipedream at this point. 

[brewcrewdue80]

5 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

It was a shoulder injury and he was back last year and running. Why would his speed be impacted by that?

Also, don't think it was ever the knee that gave Yelich problems(use the same advanced analytics to analyze his '20, '21 ,'22 seasons and you'll see it was more likely the back issues...which will likely continue to flare up making DH or 1B a much better position). 

 

Imo, watching his batting upon return, and up to early parts last season, Yelich was shying away using almost any aggression with that knee vs how natural it was.  Far too timid at the plate, I believe, protecting another off his knee.  Remember how often he just watched pitches blow by taking them as strikes. He had a small spell there in 23 where he finally showed some of that natural knee move in his swing releasing more in to it aggressively. Didnt last consistently and was infrequent. It's a positive though.

[TURBO]

15 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I've seen multiple people suggest this, but doesn't Wilken have a 70-arm and move pretty well at 3B? 

I think Black can handle 3rd and he's good enough, but Wilken SOUNDS like he's got much more upside at 3B defensively. I just think Wilken is very likely a year away. If he makes his debut this year, we got pretty lucky getting him where we did(or we're really bad, but I'm gonna hope it's the prior). 

I don't know why the Brewers are fighting having Black at 2B, which is pretty much what he was until last year.  If Turang is our SS of the future (a big IF due to his bat) then why not groom Black as our 2B and let Wilken play his natural position at 3B.  Why is this becoming so complicated.  Black at 2B, Turang at SS, Wilken at 3B and find a 1B for once...

[Fear The Chorizo]

11 minutes ago, TURBO said:

I don't know why the Brewers are fighting having Black at 2B, which is pretty much what he was until last year.  If Turang is our SS of the future (a big IF due to his bat) then why not groom Black as our 2B and let Wilken play his natural position at 3B.  Why is this becoming so complicated.  Black at 2B, Turang at SS, Wilken at 3B and find a 1B for once...

Because I think 2B with how the Brewers play is a position that they want a plus defender at - Black has been moved off that position for a reason.  

And to other posts earlier by others, I do agree if Wilken profiles as a better defensive 3B that he can easily stick there longterm if he rockets through the minirs this year and is in MLB by 2025, and Black could then shift to 1b or DH - but for 2024 I'd like to see the Brewers give Black an opportunity to stick at 3rd while also bringing in a legit 1B.  Carlos Santana on a 1 yr deal makes alot of sense to me if they aren't going to pony up what it would take to sign a Hoskins.

The past few years, both 1b and 3b have been offensive black holes on this roster, and have frequently been manned by utility middle infielders.  More than ready to give youngsters with offensive profiles that line up with corner IF positions a shot at locking those spots down.