Three trade proposals from Twins Daily

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, endaround said:

Frelick's iso makes him fairly risky.  Very few players provide positive value while maintaining an iso near .100.   Moving Frelick to a corner to make room for Chourio makes this an even bigger issue as Frelick's defense won't be covering for his bat as much.

The Brewers have 4 players who best fit in CF.  The group needs to be thinned somehow.

Frelick had a thumb injury this year. I believe his 2022 ISO #s are more representative of his power. 

I would be more inclined to trade Wiemer and Mitchell. Their concerns are much more worrying. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

14 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Julien makes more contact than Hiura did, but certainly not better contact,,,,

I'm strictly comparing their rookie seasons because that's all we have to go on from Julien right now. 

And I pointed out that the underlying metrics showed concern about Hiura, even when he was raking in 2019. Julien has no such concerns beyond typical prospect concerns.

Anyway, here are the Baseball Savant pages for each rookie season. These players are not similar and this is before Hiura fell apart due to some of the uglier aspects of his underlying peripherals.

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Semantics. They both overperformed to a significant degree...

Why would you trade Frelick for a Julien who produces more in line with what Steamer is projecting from him? If he hit the ball a little harder, I might consider it, but otherwise you're looking an on base specialist who can't field and doesn't give you any value on the base-paths. 

Frelick has his own power questions, but otherwise gives you value everywhere else on the field and at a premium position if you needed him there. 

Julien overperformed his xwOBA by 6.1%. Hiura overperformed his xwOBA by 10.2%. That's quite bit more overperformance than Julien. 

" gives you value everywhere else on the field and at a premium position if you needed him there." We don't need Frelick in CF so the fact he can play CF isn't really valuable to us. That's more valuable to a team like Minnesota who could use a CF. 

If you stick Frelick in LF he's not as valuable as he is in CF especially if he doesn't start hitting for power.

[wiguy94]

5 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

50.2 GB%....

That would be factored into his xwOBACON lol

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Julien overperformed his xwOBA by 6.1%. Hiura overperformed his xwOBA by 10.2%. That's quite bit more overperformance than Julien. 

" gives you value everywhere else on the field and at a premium position if you needed him there." We don't need Frelick in CF so the fact he can play CF isn't really valuable to us. That's more valuable to a team like Minnesota who could use a CF. 

If you stick Frelick in LF he's not as valuable as he is in CF especially if he doesn't start hitting for power.

I'm probably putting Frelick in CF and Chourio in RF to start the season....

Neither am I too worried about his power yet considering he had a thumb injury. 

Concerns with Wiemer and Mitchell are much bigger and more fundamental. We need Frelick's floor.

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I'm probably putting Frelick in CF and Chourio in RF to start the season....

Neither am I too worried about his power yet considering he had a thumb injury. 

Concerns with Wiemer and Mitchell are much bigger and more fundamental. We need Frelick's floor.

Chourio's arm is not very good. Why would we put him in RF?

[Scooterfletcher]

I’d much rather try do something like Taylor and Mitchell for Julien or even Mitchell and Wiemer for Julien and  prospect if possible .  

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, wiguy94 said:

Chourio's arm is not very good. Why would we put him in RF?

Maybe because that's where the Brewers put him in AAA? And Yelich is still in LF...If Corbin Carroll can play there....

Plus I think it would benefit him to have less defensive responsibility early on so he can focus on adjusting at the plate. 

Mostly I don't trust Wiemer or Mitchell to hit enough at the major league level right now. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

17 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I'm probably putting Frelick in CF and Chourio in RF to start the season....

Neither am I too worried about his power yet considering he had a thumb injury. 

Concerns with Wiemer and Mitchell are much bigger and more fundamental. We need Frelick's floor.

I’d also rather trade Wiemer but don’t think his value is all that high.

And maybe more importantly, I’m far from convinced the Brewers are the right team to fix his issues. 

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Maybe because that's where the Brewers put him in AAA? And Yelich is still in LF...If Corbin Carroll can play there....

Plus I think it would benefit him to have less defensive responsibility early on so he can focus on adjusting at the plate. 

Mostly I don't trust Wiemer or Mitchell to hit enough at the major league level right now. 

Because Garrett Mitchell was in CF....

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

Because Garrett Mitchell was in CF....

So, he can play there!

Frelick is better fit in CF, for now. Yelich in LF Frelick in CF Chourio in RF. 

Wiemer obviously profiles best there, but we don't know if he can hit at a major league level yet.

[wiguy94]

9 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

So, he can play there!

Frelick is better fit in CF, for now. Yelich in LF Frelick in CF Chourio in RF. 

Wiemer obviously profiles best there, but we don't know if he can hit at a major league level yet.

Why is Frelick a better fit in CF for now?

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Why is Frelick a better fit in CF for now?

Power....

And he's a good defensive CF himself. Not that different from Mitchell. 

[wiguy94]

12 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Power....

And he's a good defensive CF himself. Not that different from Mitchell. 

I don't think Brewers decide who is playing in CF based on their hitting ability...

[Brewcrew82]

4 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I don't think Brewers decide who is playing in CF based on their hitting ability...

Of course not when you put it like that. But it matters in terms of their overall value. Frelick was comparable to Mitchell in CF in a similar number of innings. And we already saw the Brewers put Chourio in RF for Mitchell...

Going to end this conversation now. I would not trade Frelick for Julien as Julien is due for a regression at the plate and does not provide value elsewhere like Frelick. I would trade Mitchell for Julien but I don't think the Twins take that deal. 

[TURBO]

[wiguy94]

8 minutes ago, TURBO said:

I'm just glad I learned that teams decide which OF play where based on their bat and not their fielding prowess.

[wiguy94]

9 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Of course not when you put it like that. But it matters in terms of their overall value. Frelick was comparable to Mitchell in CF in a similar number of innings. And we already saw the Brewers put Chourio in RF for Mitchell...

Going to end this conversation now. I would not trade Frelick for Julien as Julien is due for a regression at the plate and does not provide value elsewhere like Frelick. I would trade Mitchell for Julien but I don't think the Twins take that deal. 

Mitchell was on a rehab assignment so yeah it made sense Chourio would get bumped to RF for him.

[StearnsFTW]

I would trade Frelick for Julien in an instant.

I'd also trade Taylor for Farmer.

No thanks on the Mitchell/Polanco swap.

 

[Scooterfletcher]

The more I think about it, the more I am convinced to trade Mitchell and Wiemer for Julien if given the opportunity.   We get the best player in the deal in my opinion and trade two players whose best value is in CF.   The BTV site sees this as fair with a slight edge to Julien side fwiw.   Would rather have Julien on the IF than more OF depth.

 

Furthermore, I am fine with an OF this year of Yelich-Chourio-Frelick (health permitted this is what it will be anyway) with Taylor the 4 and Perkins the 5.   That is a quality grouping.  And lastly, I don’t want to be handcuffed in a trade (for Burnes/Adames/whoever).   At the moment, obtaining a top OF prospect with our ample trade pieces seems kind of off the table.   We get a plethora of “trade for Mayo from Baltimore” posts, but what if we can get Cowser from Baltimore?  I’d like to clear the deck a tad in a trade for the best player in the deal that is an infielder with a bat like Julien and to be able to trade for a top OF prospect if said prospect ends up becoming part of the best future deal this winter.

[Harold Hutchison]

18 hours ago, endaround said:

Frelick's iso makes him fairly risky.  Very few players provide positive value while maintaining an iso near .100.   Moving Frelick to a corner to make room for Chourio makes this an even bigger issue as Frelick's defense won't be covering for his bat as much.

The Brewers have 4 players who best fit in CF.  The group needs to be thinned somehow.

Why? Defensively, that saves a TON of runs.

My thinking? Chourio in left, Frelick in center, Mitchell in right, Taylor 4th OF, Wiemer DH. You can rotate them around a bit to give them days off, or to address a platoon situation. It means moving Yelich to first base, but thinking this group "needs to be thinned" is a good way to end up losing a trade.

[Devinep]

I offer the twins their choice of Mitchell or Weimer for Polanco. With the Twins having a lefty-heavy OF (and Buxton being always hurt or DH) Weimer is a more direct Taylor replacement so they may prefer him even with the need to fix his swing.  
 

Polanco would help this weak hitting infield quite a bit too

[Matt Breen]

3 hours ago, StearnsFTW said:

I would trade Frelick for Julien in an instant.

I'd also trade Taylor for Farmer.

No thanks on the Mitchell/Polanco swap.

 

Agree. Julien is interesting as heck. Just not sure what his defensive spot will ultimately be. 

[jay87shot]

I'd alter all 3 a bit but think all 3 are interesting. 

1) Taylor and IF Patrick Dorrian for Jose Miranda, I like Farmer but for me there isn't much difference between him and Montesario/Miller. Miranda has some upside and could be a nice platoon at 1B or 3B. We add in a prospect like Dorrian because Miranda do have that upside.

2)Mitchell/Weimer and P Jansen Junk for Polanco and P Conner Priellip 

I wouldn't trade Mitchell or Wiemer for 1 year (maybe 2) of Polanco, by getting a high upside arm we insulate ourselves from giving up a high end talent for a rental. 

3)Frelick for Brooks Lee

I like Julien a lot but my guess is that both sides would be hesitant to trade guys both like. The Twins might give up Lee considering a future infield of Kiriloff, Julien, Correa, Lewis. For me the power, defense potential of Brooks Lee would be close to pry Sal away. I would still be pretty hesitant but Brooks Lee is a potential superstar where as Frelick is likely a yearly borderline all-star.

[Scooterfletcher]

I think Brooks Lee would have to be part of a Peralta trade (with us getting more).   I don’t think our outfielders are enough to get him (maybe Frelick and one of the other two but Frelick straight up wouldn’t work )

And just goofing on btv site for fun and found one I’d do:

Lee and Julien for Burnes Turang Wiemer.

We keep Frelick and Mitchell and dramatically help our offense next year.  
 

Go to Dodgers for an Adames for Frasso swap.

Go to Seattle for Woo in a Mitchell plus a lil sum’n trade and let’s roll.  

Frelick -rf

Chourio cf

yelich lf

contreras - c

garver - dH

Julien - 2b

Santana - 1b

hall - ss

Black - 3B 

 

bench 

Taylor Perkins monasario Dunn bauers

Peralta woo frasso Miley houser (gasser) starting