Three trade proposals from Twins Daily

[Brock Beauchamp]

18 hours ago, jay87shot said:

3)Frelick for Brooks Lee

I like Julien a lot but my guess is that both sides would be hesitant to trade guys both like. The Twins might give up Lee considering a future infield of Kiriloff, Julien, Correa, Lewis. For me the power, defense potential of Brooks Lee would be close to pry Sal away. I would still be pretty hesitant but Brooks Lee is a potential superstar where as Frelick is likely a yearly borderline all-star.

This is interesting. I'm inclined to believe the Twins say no but I'm not sure. Lee and Frelick are similarly-valued prospects, though a little of the shine has rubbed off Frelick based on his MLB performance.

[jay87shot]

Would Tyrone Taylor and Bryce Wilson get Jorge Polance (maybe a prospect to even out control). I kind of like the idea of trading our 6th OF and 6/7th best reliever for a solid vet IF.

[brewcrewdue80]

On 12/13/2023 at 7:15 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

This is interesting. I'm inclined to believe the Twins say no but I'm not sure. Lee and Frelick are similarly-valued prospects, though a little of the shine has rubbed off Frelick based on his MLB performance.

Frelick didn't have a full healthy season. Only 40games in AAA.  Then just 57games played at MLB small sample size.  

He brought what measures out as near elite BB/K rates in that sample size.  What he didn't bring, was Barrels, exit velocity, max exit velocity.  Stats like that in a small sample can flip drastically.  Will he keep that BB/K pct? Since you imagine EV/barrels are a result on being more aggressive up at the plate.

 

Looks like he was both 9+pct below MLB zone swing pct, and 1st pitch swing pct. 

Contact pct over 90pct in the zone, 17pct above ML avg 75pct with outside zone contact.  Just above contact avg on chase pct and contact.

He's going to be a major headache vs pitchers based on all of that.  7+pitch battles that he sends in for a base hit.  .275+ hitter. Above 345 OB.

I'd find the combo of Black/Frelick-Chourio batting lineup a refreshing top of the lineup. No Counsell-lefty/lefty leadoff(better side of platoon)  Contreras or Yelich 4/5.  Yes please. What a different feeling than all these past seasons.  

You don't get that feeling swapping Mitchell/Wiemer in to 1 or 2 do you?

I don't know Julien. Statcast pct you can see he possesses possibly the best eye in baseball.  His contact pct is suspect to maintain a higher BA, but the power shows up legit.  Very weak arm would lock him to 2b/1b.  One of the slowest in MLB year 1.  So, get him to 1b and use Mitchell/Wiemer with someone to acquire him. Julien's bat exceeds both to plop at 4-6. Defensively/speed he's not equal to trade Frelick for with 6yrs control.  Add Black as your 2b/1b future option, Julien/Black combo needs Adames moved so Turang sits at SS defensively. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

6 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

I don't know Julien. Statcast pct you can see he possesses possibly the best eye in baseball.  His contact pct is suspect to maintain a higher BA, but the power shows up legit.  Very weak arm would lock him to 2b/1b.  One of the slowest in MLB year 1.  So, get him to 1b and use Mitchell/Wiemer with someone to acquire him. Julien's bat exceeds both to plop at 4-6. Defensively/speed he's not equal to trade Frelick for with 6yrs control.  Add Black as your 2b/1b future option, Julien/Black combo needs Adames moved so Turang sits at SS defensively. 

This simply is not enough to get Julien. The Twins aren't going to trade a promising young player for a bunch of decent-but-problematic players any more than the Brewers would trade Frelick to the Twins for Austin Martin and Tanner Schobel (the Twins equivalent of Wiemer or Mitchell).

[brewcrewdue80]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

This simply is not enough to get Julien. The Twins aren't going to trade a promising young player for a bunch of decent-but-problematic players any more than the Brewers would trade Frelick to the Twins for Austin Martin and Tanner Schobel (the Twins equivalent of Wiemer or Mitchell).

 

Not exactly a non-problematic player with a trouble defensively in Julien.  I mentioned the weak arm, slog with sprint speed that affects his range to play 2b.  The opposite of Mitchell/Wiemer who can actually improve(upside) with their bats.  Julien is playing because of his bat with no upside on defense.  Maybe an average 1b.  I did mention adding to sending Mitchell or Wiemer, but imo Frelick would require more than just Julien since he's both bat/defense. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

49 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

 

Not exactly a non-problematic player with a trouble defensively in Julien.  I mentioned the weak arm, slog with sprint speed that affects his range to play 2b.  The opposite of Mitchell/Wiemer who can actually improve(upside) with their bats.  Julien is playing because of his bat with no upside on defense.  Maybe an average 1b.  I did mention adding to sending Mitchell or Wiemer, but imo Frelick would require more than just Julien since he's both bat/defense. 

You’re right that Julien has little upside defensively but he was dealing with lower body issues for most of last year, he’s not actually that slow.

But his bat has a floor wayyyyy higher than anyone else in this conversation. 

[wibadgers23]

Twins and Blue Jays possibly in trade talks per Morosi. Kepler and Polanco are some of the names that have come up.

 

[TURBO]

Can Polanco stay healthy? 

That is a serious concern.

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, wibadgers23 said:

Twins and Blue Jays possibly in trade talks per Morosi. Kepler and Polanco are some of the names that have come up.

 

If there ends up being a bidding war for Hoskins, as usual, we are out of it.  :(

[Brock Beauchamp]

48 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Can Polanco stay healthy? 

That is a serious concern.

A huge concern. Caveat emptor with him, there's a decent chance his ankle is cooked. I mean, I think he'll keep being pretty good when he's playing but I'm skeptical how often you can expect triple-digit games started for him at this point.

[nate82]

Julien for Frelick would be about fair as fair can get in a one to one trade.  I think the Brewers turn this down before the Twins do.  Defensively Julien doesn't fit for the Brewers as it looks like Julien's best position is either LF, 2B or 1B.  His arm is not good enough to play RF, SS or 3B.  He is also limited speed wise so he is stuck at 2B, 1B or LF.  Defensively I think he would be fine at 2B but the Brewers already have a bunch of fine at 2B defensively prospects.  Bat wise he has more power than Frelick but I think Frelick has the better hit tool.

If I am trading Frelick and it is to the Twins it would be for Lee and not Julien. 

[brewcrewdue80]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

Julien for Frelick would be about fair as fair can get in a one to one trade.  I think the Brewers turn this down before the Twins do.  Defensively Julien doesn't fit for the Brewers as it looks like Julien's best position is either LF, 2B or 1B.  His arm is not good enough to play RF, SS or 3B.  He is also limited speed wise so he is stuck at 2B, 1B or LF.  Defensively I think he would be fine at 2B but the Brewers already have a bunch of fine at 2B defensively prospects.  Bat wise he has more power than Frelick but I think Frelick has the better hit tool.

If I am trading Frelick and it is to the Twins it would be for Lee and not Julien. 

This would be true. I would think Lee is on the untouchable category due to not being flawed defensively while carrying the nice future bat profile. They would have to really want Frelick for OF purposes over what Lee offers for infield purposes. A potential future at 3b makes Lee more valuable in today's game to me personally. Crew would need to add like Houser or Rea to entice them.(I don't know if they need a solid #4 potential)

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

This would be true. I would think Lee is on the untouchable category due to not being flawed defensively while carrying the nice future bat profile. They would have to really want Frelick for OF purposes over what Lee offers for infield purposes. A potential future at 3b makes Lee more valuable in today's game to me personally. Crew would need to add like Houser or Rea to entice them.(I don't know if they need a solid #4 potential)

The Twins are actively pursuing a front line starter and I think they’re open to trading Lee. One year of Burnes isn’t enough for Lee, probably. If the Brewers are interested in trading Peralta, I think a haul of Lee+ could happen. 

[Scooterfletcher]

We would need Lee and Julien in any Peralta deal and probably would make any trade contingent on getting at least two starting pitchers for Burnes (something like Sheehan Frasso and Stone for Burnes could enable a Peralta deal for Julien and Lee for instance).

[brewcrewdue80]

32 minutes ago, Scooterfletcher said:

We would need Lee and Julien in any Peralta deal and probably would make any trade contingent on getting at least two starting pitchers for Burnes (something like Sheehan Frasso and Stone for Burnes could enable a Peralta deal for Julien and Lee for instance).

I cant fathom the Dodgers parting with 2 SPs that pitched in the Majors last season after parting with Pepiot for just 1 SP. Just continues a need to find another SP.  

Brewers parting with both top end SPs leaves a hole they aren't ready to fill. Our Ace is, Miley? Sheehan?  We'd solve the hitting to be way behind in the pitching.  I guess the team could proceed on this uear being a retool. Trade Contreras, Adames, Miley at the deadline. Insert Quero-Lee-Julien-Black-Turang spread across the infield any day. Best of Wiemer/Mitchell, with Chourio and Frelick. Yelich at DH.  Watch them rake.  Hope to get an addition or 2 that steadies the SPs to now works with Sheehan, Gasser, Ashby, Miserioski.  Did we extend Williams yet? WS 2025.

[Scooterfletcher]

We can add in Adames but need to come away with the starting pitching.   Seems Dodgers still likely want Adames too.  

[Scooterfletcher]

Seems like we should revisit Burnes with the Twins.   I’d add what is needed to get Julien and Lee back (would Wiemer and Turang along with Burnes do the trick )?

[nate82]

13 minutes ago, Scooterfletcher said:

Seems like we should revisit Burnes with the Twins.   I’d add what is needed to get Julien and Lee back (would Wiemer and Turang along with Burnes do the trick )?

No Wiemer and Turang wouldn’t get it done along with Burnes.  The only way the Brewers get Lee is if it is for Peralta.  The Twins wouldn’t trade for Turang either as he doesn’t fit their current team needs.  They have enough players who can play SS/2B.

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 hours ago, Scooterfletcher said:

Seems like we should revisit Burnes with the Twins.   I’d add what is needed to get Julien and Lee back (would Wiemer and Turang along with Burnes do the trick )?

I think it's possible to get either Lee or Julien - but be prepared to pay a steep price - but not both.

[nate82]

So glad the Brewers didn’t trade for Polanco.  I will gladly let the Mariners make this mistake.

[TURBO]

20 minutes ago, nate82 said:

So glad the Brewers didn’t trade for Polanco.  I will gladly let the Mariners make this mistake.

Yeah, the daily game of "is he healthy enough to start" and IL stints just don't interest me.

[MNBrew]

Based on the return MN got from Seattle, it would've taken B. Wilson, Houser, and a couple of prospects to land Polanco.

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, MNBrew said:

Based on the return MN got from Seattle, it would've taken B. Wilson, Houser, and a couple of prospects to land Polanco.

You're definitely underrating what Minnesota got.

Topa is way better than Wilson.

Houser is better and cheaper than Desclafani.

Gonzalez is a top 100/fringe top 100 prospect.

Bowen is a guy with good stuff and has some industry hype.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

8 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

You're definitely underrating what Minnesota got.

Topa is way better than Wilson.

Houser is better and cheaper than Desclafani.

Gonzalez is a top 100/fringe top 100 prospect.

Bowen is a guy with good stuff and has some industry hype.

Bryce Wilson is 7 years younger than Justin Topa, and put up better numbers last year. Topa had a good year last year, but "way better" is probably an exaggeration. And given Wilson's age and multiple years of cheap control, his value is likely substantially higher.

[wiguy94]

3 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Bryce Wilson is 7 years younger than Justin Topa, and put up better numbers last year. Topa had a good year last year, but "way better" is probably an exaggeration. And given Wilson's age and multiple years of cheap control, his value is likely substantially higher.

Topa and Wilson have the same amount of team control. Better numbers? They had practically the same ERA but Topa did it in much higher leverage with dramatically better peripherals.

Topa - 2.61 ERA, 2.93 xERA, 3.15 FIP, 3.55 xFIP, 3.47 SIERA, 1.90 WPA

Wilson - 2.58 ERA, 3.98 xERA, 4.13 FIP, 4.72 xFIP, 4.31 SIERA, 1.32 WPA

Wilson had a marginally better ERA but look at the gap in those peripherals, so no Wilson was not better than Topa.