Why the Brewers Will Definitely Trade Corbin Burnes This Winter

[Matt Breen]

The landing spot of Yoshinobu Yamamoto struck another blow to the potential trade market for the Brewers' top impending free agent. They still have options, though, and all the evidence tells us they're about to avail themselves of one of them.

Image courtesy of © Ebony Cox / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

Corbin Burnes is almost assuredly heading to free agency next fall. He reiterated that this week. Once Burnes hits free agency, the Brewers won’t be able to compete for his services. Thus, here are their options going forward:

1. Trade him now, to maximize the return.
2. Keep him, and ride him for another playoff run, but deal him if the team falls out of contention early. If they keep Burnes all year, they could still net a compensation pick after the 1st round of the 2025 Draft, after he signs elsewhere. 

All of this assumes that Burnes doesn’t have a terrible year, though--or get seriously injured. So, what will the Brewers do? The answer is: they will trade him now. Why? The Brewers are concerned not only about 2024, but beyond. With the rising price for superstar players, they can’t compete against the likes of the Dodgers and Yankees for elite players. Nothing could have proved that more clearly than the way Los Angeles has thrown money around this winter, adding Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, and Yamamoto, or than the fact that the Yankees breezily dealt five players to get ahold of Juan Soto for a single season, before he, too, hits free agency.

Burnes will bring back young, talented, cheap players, whether Matt Arnold and his crew deal him now or at the trade deadline. So, you may ask, why not hold onto Burnes and make a run at the playoffs? The team that just won the NL Central rather handily is mostly returning. They won 92 games last year. Why not give it another go, in what appears to be a relatively weak and uncertain division? Arnold can always deal Burnes at the deadline for a nice haul of prospects.

The answer has its roots in the 2022 season. That year, the Brewers dealt closer Josh Hader at the trade deadline. The club was 57-45 at the time, and they led the division by three games. The team stumbled after the trade, going 29-31, and missed the playoffs. The move reportedly infuriated many in the clubhouse and caused players (and fans) to question the team’s commitment to winning.

The Brewers had multiple reasons for dealing Hader, not the least of which was the fact that he was set to make lots and lots of money the next year, and they wanted to maximize any return on him, while being competitive at the same time. The team missing the playoffs that year, obviously, was a major failure. But the trade, in the end, netted William Contreras, Robert Gasser and Joel Payamps. Not bad. 

With that in mind, the problem with holding onto Burnes is that the Brewers--even with him in the rotation--are likely to be a team on the fringe of the playoff race come the end of July. This is a good team, but not a great one. Most of the rest of the division is better, but no team is a juggernaut. This means that, at the deadline, there could easily be a cluster of teams fighting for the division crown--just like in 2023, when the Brewers, Reds and Cubs were within five games of one another. 

If that happens, there is a strong possibility that the Brewers would retain Burnes, instead of trading him. Trading Burnes in the middle of a playoff race would infuriate the fans and players. The club does not want that to happen again.

For that reason, the Brewers will act now and deal Burnes. His insistence that he will test the market after next season will hurt the return slightly, but not tank it. A team like the Dodgers or Yankees would use the time to make him comfortable and excited about staying around, and they have the dollars to match any offers down the road. So, while some teams may see Burnes as a one-year rental, most will try to use next year as a way to entice him to sign on for a longer run, whatever he might say about his mindset.

Also, there is the specter of Brandon Woodruff hovering over the team. The club just saw how an injury can completely derail the career of a really good player. If Burnes went down, Milwaukee would end up with nothing for him, just like with Woodruff.

In the end, the team needs to move Burnes now, because they don’t want him getting hurt on their watch, and trying to move him at the deadline would be potentially disastrous in the clubhouse and with fans. Plus, the Hader trade demonstrates just how valuable trading a player can be. Perhaps there was some luck involved in turning Esteury Ruiz into Contreras and Payamps, but the move still demonstrates the power of proactive aggressiveness in the market.

And let’s be clear: the Brewers want and need to trade Burnes. All this talk about trading him only if they are ‘blown away,’ or whatever, is just talk. The team wants to trade Burnes now. Dealing assets while they are still valuable is the philosophy that the team has embraced, and will continue to embrace. It’s the nature of being a small-market club. Perhaps they're not as extreme as Tampa Bay, but that’s the model that Milwaukee now follows.

As for going into 2024 without Burnes, yes, it would be difficult. It’s not easy to replace a top-of-the-rotation starter. But it’s likely that the club will get at least one major-league-ready starter back in any such deal. Giving a rotation spot to a young player is always a risk, but it’s something the club needs to be willing to do in the current economic climate. There will probably be other assets acquired in the trade that the team feels will make up for the loss of Burnes. Also, trading Burnes opens up payroll, so the club could replace him with a serviceable but lesser player. All of it is a risk, but hanging onto Burnes may be even riskier.

Hence, as the Brewers talk trade this offseason, it will be very much on their mind to deal Burnes. Maybe they won’t be ‘blown away,’ but they will still get a nice haul. If the team doesn’t deal Corbin, I’m guessing it will be more because of Mark Attanasio’s desire to ‘go for it,’ rather than a lack of a quality return.

As the other top arms go off the board this offseason--especially Yamamoto, and perhaps Jordan Montgomery--watch for the Burnes trade talk to catch fire. Clubs with World Series aspirations will be desperate to fill out their roster with a great starting pitcher, and Burnes will be the best guy available on the market. The team will get some good offers, and they'll accept one. Fans will be upset, but not nearly as much so as if it happened in the heat of a pennant race.

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[KCBrewerfan34]

Burnes has to go before the season starts, assuming they can get more than a comp pick valued package. 

[Austin Tatious]

Great article, Reilly.  Finally, an insightful piece from a Milwaukee perspective.  

[wibadgers23]

I wonder if the Brewers are going to try and trade Burnes before January 12 which is the deadline for reaching an agreement on arbitration.  They probably don't want to relive that again.

[brewmann04]

Move him now before risk of injury 

[ironyooperwood]

On 12/23/2023 at 8:46 AM, wibadgers23 said:

I wonder if the Brewers are going to try and trade Burnes before January 12 which is the deadline for reaching an agreement on arbitration.  They probably don't want to relive that again.

 I think if they're dead set on trading him. They'd try to arbitrate as low as possible. They wouldn't care if he's pissed(he'd be gone) and the team trading for wouldn't have to pay him as much. Maybe we get an extra lotto guy in the deal:)

[Brock Beauchamp]

8 minutes ago, ironyooperwood said:

 I think if they're dead set on trading him. They'd try to arbitrate as low as possible. They wouldn't care if he's pissed(he'd be gone) and the team trading for wouldn't have to pay him as much. Maybe we get an extra lotto guy in the deal:)

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

[jay87shot]

We still have Snell, Montgomery, Imagana maybe Giolito, Stroman, Clevinger, Kershaw possibly Bauer and then the really desperate teams will pay big.

[Trax]

It is best for all if the Brewers can get a fair return now for Burnes, and Adames.  If you can't then by all means start the season with them, but trade them now if the compensation is enough to warrant it.