Game 16: Packers @ Vikings - Sunday, Dec. 31st 7:20 PM

[Fear The Chorizo]

It would be so fun for this team to get into the playoffs....and despite their defensive limitations, their offense if anywhere close to healthy would terrify playoff opponents right now, just because it's full of young playmakes all over the field.

[igor67]

That other fun comparison:

Jordan Love 16 games 'season 1'  3843 Yards 30 TD   11 INT  63.1 Completion%

Aaron Rodgers  16 games '1st'     4038 Yards  28 TD   13 INT 63.6 Completion %

 

Love 10th in Yards for the season, 3rd in TD 

[BrewerFan]

38 minutes ago, SeaBass said:

Joe Barry is gone. They allowed the Carolina Panthers to score 30 points, that isn't getting washed away. Then that same team got shut out today. It's as black a mark on Barry's record as anything. 

His contact is expiring there's literally zero reason to think he'll return.

No, he's not returning with his contract expiring and the comments both players and MLF have made.

 

They've had a few game plans this year where they drastically change the way they play. Tonight they dropped Kenny Clark and brought Nixon on a Corner blitz, he had Ballentine in man coverage vs Jefferson. Not to say the later is a good thing, it's just a different look so they could create more pressure.

 

As I say this, the woman on TJM4 says, "We've gotta give Joe Barry his flowers." LOL...no, we do not. 

This should be the exception with this much talent on D, not the outliers.  

[BrewerFan]

10 minutes ago, igor67 said:

That other fun comparison:

Jordan Love 16 games 'season 1'  3843 Yards 30 TD   11 INT  63.1 Completion%

Aaron Rodgers  16 games '1st'     4038 Yards  28 TD   13 INT 63.6 Completion %

 

Love 10th in Yards for the season, 3rd in TD 

That is wild. I think I put something like this on my pre-season prediction, but...A-I probably didn't believe it and B-That was with Bakh, a lock down LT, an elite RT, and a just really good OL for the whole season.

And I'm sure I'd have also included Watson staying healthy and Jones and the WRers/TEs for the most part. That hasn't been the case obviously. 

Obviously, nobody saying he's as good or better than 12, but he's matched his level of play through season 1 with a lot more obstacles. 

That is extremely exciting!

[igor67]

It also got me thinking about QB play in general in the league. 32 TDs leads the league at the moment, which is a far cry from all the QBs that used to get into the 40+ group in 16 games. It's not a great shot, but Love could end up leading the league in TDs this year. SF doesn't have much to play for and Prescott is only 2 TDs ahead.

[homer]

 

 

[homer]

 

 

[yourout]

3 hours ago, homer said:

 

 

I am missing the context.

Is he impressed with the play or complaining about something?

[homer]

15 minutes ago, yourout said:

I am missing the context.

Is he impressed with the play or complaining about something?

impressed with the throw

[yourout]

5 minutes ago, homer said:

impressed with the throw

That's what i thought... Thanks

[CheezWizHed]

On 1/1/2024 at 6:00 AM, BrewerFan said:

No, he's not returning with his contract expiring and the comments both players and MLF have made.

 

They've had a few game plans this year where they drastically change the way they play. Tonight they dropped Kenny Clark and brought Nixon on a Corner blitz, he had Ballentine in man coverage vs Jefferson. Not to say the later is a good thing, it's just a different look so they could create more pressure.

 

As I say this, the woman on TJM4 says, "We've gotta give Joe Barry his flowers." LOL...no, we do not. 

This should be the exception with this much talent on D, not the outliers.  

Not to mention that the games where we've played really well on D was against very low end QBs. I think his ability to assemble a defense is now firmly established and that ceiling doesn't crack the top 20 defenses in the league. 

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

Not to mention that the games where we've played really well on D was against very low end QBs. I think his ability to assemble a defense is now firmly established and that ceiling doesn't crack the top 20 defenses in the league. 

Yes...he's also had bad games vs terrible QBs and like every year a couple of games the D really played well, but that last part should be abundantly clear. I could understand why he was bad in Detroit and Washington. Preston Smith was his best player on the later team and he didn't have a whole lot in Detroit(I did not know his father-in-law was Rod Marinelli). Nobody that I can remember(maybe Suh was there...IDR). 

But there is talent in GB on that side of the ball. IF they can bring in someone who the players respect, I think you'd see this defense turn around very quickly.

I prefer a 34 defense, but I don't really care at this point. It's really not that big of a deal...and a 4-3 where the DL can play a 1 gap scheme and get up-field may work better. 

I just hope we haven't done irreparable damage to the development of some of the young guys or a guy like Jaire. He's an elite talent and I really don't want to see him go. I'm still a big Jim Leonhard fan, but Minter from Michigan looked pretty good. Zimmer, such a wide range of candidates who are ALL just leagues better than Barry. 

[CheezWizHed]

59 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

I prefer a 34 defense, but I don't really care at this point. It's really not that big of a deal...and a 4-3 where the DL can play a 1 gap scheme and get up-field may work better. 

I just hope we haven't done irreparable damage to the development of some of the young guys or a guy like Jaire. He's an elite talent and I really don't want to see him go. I'm still a big Jim Leonhard fan, but Minter from Michigan looked pretty good. Zimmer, such a wide range of candidates who are ALL just leagues better than Barry. 

Yeah, I think the choice of the next DC is critical to keep Jaire engaged.  He is going nowhere (maybe the IR) next year due to his contract.  But if you bring in a strong leader with an attacking D (hellooooo JL), I think Jaire will be all in. 

Zimmer came to mind also and could be interesting, but I would be concerned about him relating to the younger players now days. 

With a 4-3 D, I think we'd have issues with our OLBs and DL matches.  Clark and Wyatt would be fine in a 4-3 (maybe preferable for Wyatt).  Brooks too.  Not sure Slaton or Wooden fit well.  Then you have Gary, Ness, and Smith that might fit as a 4-3 DL, but couldn't really flex to be a 4-3 OLB.  It can be done, but I think we have good talent for the 3-4 and shouldn't change it now.  Plus, I still think the 3-4 fits better against the pass overall.  

[BrewerFan]

21 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Yeah, I think the choice of the next DC is critical to keep Jaire engaged.  He is going nowhere (maybe the IR) next year due to his contract.  But if you bring in a strong leader with an attacking D (hellooooo JL), I think Jaire will be all in. 

Zimmer came to mind also and could be interesting, but I would be concerned about him relating to the younger players now days. 

With a 4-3 D, I think we'd have issues with our OLBs and DL matches.  Clark and Wyatt would be fine in a 4-3 (maybe preferable for Wyatt).  Brooks too.  Not sure Slaton or Wooden fit well.  Then you have Gary, Ness, and Smith that might fit as a 4-3 DL, but couldn't really flex to be a 4-3 OLB.  It can be done, but I think we have good talent for the 3-4 and shouldn't change it now.  Plus, I still think the 3-4 fits better against the pass overall.  

I don't know about the Jaire thing. The MJS just reported that the decision on keeping him or not may come down to the 8M roster bonus he has coming up. Maybe that's a bluff. It seems outrageous to me that they'd cut him. Trading him would make a lot of sense, but are you getting a 1st? I'd certainly trade him if you could get a pick in the top half of the 1st, but given the injuries, that may be a big ask(coming off last year, I think he'd have been worth a 1st+a a couple of later picks). 

We're completely in agreement on JL. He's the ideal fit.

With regard to the players, Slaton is more of a NT, but teams that run the 4-3 still have big, physical space-eaters out there. Damon Harrison played in a 4-3 for much of his career. LVN seems to like to play with his hand on the ground more than standing up. Gary is a guy I think is going to be great no matter where he plays.  

 

I also prefer the 34, but I don't want to see the Packers eliminating DCs because they run more of a 43. And really, any DC should be able to run both and get the most out of their players. But, hypothetically, if Saleh is available as a DC this upcoming off-season, you're not gonna pass on him because he likes a 4-3, right?

I'm just using him as an example, I do not expect the Jets to fire him. They'd be crazy to do so. 

 

[adambr2]

To me whether we run 3-4 or 4-3 is unimportant, there are elite defenses on both sides that use one or the other as their base. So you can definitely have success with either. 

I just want to see someone with an effective vision on how that scheme will be executed and the right personnel in place to run it.

With our chronic struggles trying to stop the run I'd tend to gravitate a little more toward a 4-3. However, we've built around pass rushing OLBs that are going to be undersized as DEs in a 4-3, so I don't know if we've got the best fits schematically to make the switch right now. 

[CheezWizHed]

16 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

With our chronic struggles trying to stop the run I'd tend to gravitate a little more toward a 4-3. However, we've built around pass rushing OLBs that are going to be undersized as DEs in a 4-3, so I don't know if we've got the best fits schematically to make the switch right now. 

Yes, this is my main concern... I don't want 1-2 years of revamping the roster to match the scheme. 

Also, I'd like to see a DC that is able to change things up and create some confusion on the offense.  It seems like we do the same thing each game with minor adjustments so it is easy to game plan for.

Nor do we adjust to what is going on in the game.  We obviously sold out to stop Sequon Barkley against NYG, but had absolutely no adjustments to stop Devito gashing us with QB scrambles. 

[igor67]

I would definitely concur with not wanting to switch scheme's at this stage and have to wait around for a competitive defense. On the offensive side it's about time to draft a running back, and we could use some line depth or upgrades in a few places, Safety is the glaring weakness on defense, but there are so many guys who were high picks that might really deliver if they were set-up for success that I don't feel like we need an amazing draft. A defense in the 10-15 range might easily be enough with the way the offense has looked, and figures to improve even more.

[BrewerFan]

10 hours ago, adambr2 said:

To me whether we run 3-4 or 4-3 is unimportant, there are elite defenses on both sides that use one or the other as their base. So you can definitely have success with either. 

I just want to see someone with an effective vision on how that scheme will be executed and the right personnel in place to run it.

With our chronic struggles trying to stop the run I'd tend to gravitate a little more toward a 4-3. However, we've built around pass rushing OLBs that are going to be undersized as DEs in a 4-3, so I don't know if we've got the best fits schematically to make the switch right now. 

The 34 is more of the run-stopping defense(in theory...that was the reason it was created) and our DL wouldn't be undersized as 4-3 DEs. They'd be just fine. There's less you can do in a 43, but if Florres is out of a job, or a great DC who prefers a 43, I would be fine with it. 

In fact...I doubt there'd be many teams who'd have bigger DEs.

Our personnel is versatile and more than ever, fits both styles. Gary, Van Ness, both bigger DEs in a 43 or as OLBers in a 3-4. Philly's DEs are tiny relatively speaking. SF has bigger DEs, but Bosa and Young are 6'5 and listed at 265 and 264 respectively. Their backups are 6'4 264 and then Gregory is 6'5 242.

Gary is 6'5 277, Smith, 6'5 265, Van Ness at 6'5 272, Enagbare is the smallest at 6'4 258.

Our best game plan this year was basically one in which Barry(or whoever actually came up with it) ran multiple fronts. So...whatever it takes, I don't care. 

 

 

[BrewerFan]

7 hours ago, igor67 said:

I would definitely concur with not wanting to switch scheme's at this stage and have to wait around for a competitive defense. On the offensive side it's about time to draft a running back, and we could use some line depth or upgrades in a few places, Safety is the glaring weakness on defense, but there are so many guys who were high picks that might really deliver if they were set-up for success that I don't feel like we need an amazing draft. A defense in the 10-15 range might easily be enough with the way the offense has looked, and figures to improve even more.

The defense should be higher than 10-15. This isn't like the 2010s. There's too much talent there(we're in that range right now). 

We should be in the top 10 pretty easily. Also, create more turnovers.

 

The scheme, it's really not as big of a deal as people are suggesting. I think they're remembering the switch from the 43 to the 34. That was different. The 43 is easier for the front to play(no dropping) and the DL don't have to play 2 gaps. It's really a simpler scheme up front. You need 3 MLBers, but McDuffie could play as the 3rd LBer. This is just in the base. We're in nickel(everyone is) ~70% of the time. Base, maybe 20%. I'd like to see our front play more single gap. Get up-field instead of trying to hold your ground. 

But it's not like Aaron Kampman dropping or having Clay Matthews. And TJ Slaton, he still remains an invaluable piece in the 43. The slight adjustments pale in comparison to the risk of not getting the best candidate. Plus LVN and Gary, they actually played IDL in College. Gary almost exclusively. Smith in Washington was in a 43. 

My ideal off-season

1st-Talise Fuaga
Monster RT out of Oregon St. Just a monster in the run game, athletic and good in the pass game, but rough around the edges. Tom moves to LT, our OTs are set. It's not Alt, but it's a helluva upgrade.
2nd(40) Barton(Duke) or Connor Bebbe(Kan St) OG

Fix the OL in 2 moves. Barton can play C, OG or OT, but is best on the inside. Also, really good vs the run. Donovan Jackson is also an option. An Elgton Jenkins type. He's a powerful, athletic guard with 36 in" arms who could play OT, but is a road grader.

2(52)-Troy Franklin, Xavier Worthy WRs from Oregon/Texas. Deep threats. Our offense opens up so much with a deep threat. Protects against Watson and keeps the pipeline developing.
 

3(83) Bucky Irvin(RB Oregon)
Probably goes a bit higher, but HR threat, can catch the ball out of the backfield. Perfect fit.

3(88) Cole Bishop(S Utah)
6'3 200. He can play FS, SS. Covers a lot of ground, he can come up and hit. 

4(116)-Jaheim Bell(FB/RB/H-Back/TE/WR)
He's a jack of all trades. He may be the most versatile offensive player and the ideal replacement for Deguara. Hasn't been asked to block much, but at 6'3 230 with elite speed, he's a matchup nightmare. 

5-Supplemental pick for Lazard-Dillon Johnson(RB Washington) 
Another explosive back who can catch the ball. Stock could rise with the CFP, but right now graded as a 5/6 rd pick.

6-Zack Zinter(OG Mich)
He was a 2/3 rd pick before the ACL injury. He's a monster inside. Most likely uses '24 as a RS type of year, but worth the pick IMO.

two 6ths rd picks for Lowry and Reed
-Jay Stanley(SS Southern Miss)
Big, physical player. Can help on STs right away, but at 6'1 215, he can also play nickel LBer. 
-Elijah Jones(CB Boston College)
6'2 185 CB with good speed, and coverage ability. Probably needs to develop a bit more, but I like a developmental CB behind Jaire, Valentine, Stokes(who is probably not going to have his option picked up). 

7th-Tyrice Knight(MLB UTEP)
Under the radar, but he's 6'2 240, explosive and looks great on tape. Another STs first player to start, but he could end up in the rotation, particularly if Campbell is in fact cut).

Free Agent
Budda Baker 5/75 25 SB, 35 GTD against injury

 

The OL gets a makeover on the OL. Tom kicks over to LT(where I think he'd have played this year if we'd have known Bakh wasn't going to play). Still a chance they bring Bakh back on an incentive-laden deal starting at the Veterans Minimum Benefit, but I wouldn't count on him. But with or without him, we add a big OT and a couple IOL prospects.
The offense gets more playmakers to open the defense up. I think Jones is back after taking a pay cut from his ~11M base salary next year, but they need to get younger at RB. We have an exceptional young WR'ing core, but too much of our offense is predicated on the threat of the deep ball. Another speedster who can return kicks in place of Toure would be a big boost and insurance policy.

And Jaheim Bell is an absolute matchup nightmare(I expect SF will draft him before us with their 3rd rd comp picks).

The defense gets yet ANOTHER star, a physical safety next to Baker who can both cover ground. We're in outstanding cap space for the future. One more year where we have to clean the cap up a bit, eat the Bakh hit, Savage dead money, Nixon dead money(both voids). But we still end up with ~40M in cap space pretty easily. Clark gets a ~3/60 type extension...or you just let him play the year out and that 27M comes off. We'll have to sign Love. I'm guessing we're looking at 5/220 at this point, but QB salaries are stupid. But they'll do enough to mitigate the cap hits in the short term. 

Obviously, a WHOLE lot will change from now until the draft, this is just an outline of what I'd look at. 
OL #1 priority. It's been "good enough," as of late. Much of that is owed to that elite play of Tom, Josh Myers really turning it around and Jenkins returning to form. 

 

My backup signing would be Antoine Winfield, a guy who is physical like his father and can play the slot or play CF. Safety is also very deep this year in Free Agency, not so much in the draft. 

I'm not saying these moves make us a contender, but if Love and the young players in place right now continue to improve and we add a little more explosive playmakers, less pressure is on Watson and it'll open up the middle of the field for Kraft, Musgrave, Reed, Doubs, Wiccks and company. 

The real key is getting a veteran playmaker at safety and an upgrade at DC....regardless of what he runs. Someone who commands respect and who gets the most out of his players. 

[OldHeidelberg]

I think the attraction for both MM and MLF on the 3-4 was the "complimentary football" angle, they plan on high scoring offense led by an elite QB and really need the defense to hold the other team to FG's and get lots of turnovers. That worked well in 2010 and early 2011, maybe a bit in 2014, but for the most part the players often seem confused and out of position. I think the 4-3 would not only fix our leaky run defense but also may be a bit simpler for the players? Not sure about that but I think we have our 4-3 DL, Gary, Van Ness and Smith are big enough for DE. We hope we have our mike in Walker but need to figure out the other 2 LB's. Not a huge transition in my mind but if MLF is set on the 3-4 we better be prepared for that sort of hire.

No Packers in Pro Bowl, not much of a surprise. Maybe Love could have went over Stafford but he is the vet. Clark? That's about all I can come up with as candidates, just too many guys in an out with injuries this year.     

[BrewerFan]

11 hours ago, OldHeidelberg said:

I think the attraction for both MM and MLF on the 3-4 was the "complimentary football" angle, they plan on high scoring offense led by an elite QB and really need the defense to hold the other team to FG's and get lots of turnovers. That worked well in 2010 and early 2011, maybe a bit in 2014, but for the most part the players often seem confused and out of position. I think the 4-3 would not only fix our leaky run defense but also may be a bit simpler for the players? Not sure about that but I think we have our 4-3 DL, Gary, Van Ness and Smith are big enough for DE. We hope we have our mike in Walker but need to figure out the other 2 LB's. Not a huge transition in my mind but if MLF is set on the 3-4 we better be prepared for that sort of hire.

No Packers in Pro Bowl, not much of a surprise. Maybe Love could have went over Stafford but he is the vet. Clark? That's about all I can come up with as candidates, just too many guys in an out with injuries this year.     

That's kinda what the Packers moved away from when they had Ed Donatell and Bob Sanders and a few others maybe inbetween. And they got that. Played a lot of softer coverage, used their DEs to get pressure(Kampman and KGB, others around then like Holliday and whoever else) and they lived on turnovers.

The 34 was in part because Capers was available. A former HC with a great record as a defensive coach...and it was more aggressive. And that worked with the CBs we had. Woodson, Harris, Williams, Shields, etc...

That's the type of hire I'm talking about though. A coach who can take some off MLF's plate and someone who has the respect of the players. Really would like to see Florres if we don't get our first pick in Leonhard.

Pro-Bowlers? Clark or Gary would work. Tom has been REALLY good. Love is worthy(again, so much voting was done this year earlier in the season before Love looked this good, so I get that.

 

Playoffs, Pro Bowl, this season has been all about Love...and a resounding success as far as that goes. 

[kestrel79]

Where does the Packers D rank in interceptions, we have to be near the bottom? I just seems like the last couple years, we hardly get any INTs. Is that Barry's scheme, or talent on the roster just not making plays?

Or was I just spoiled growing up watching LeRoy Butler, Darren Sharper, Nick Collins, Al Harris, Mike McKenzie, Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams, Micah Hyde the past 25 years? :)

[CheezWizHed]

Ford and Rasual Douglas have been pretty good at INTs, but Ford has been on/off with injuries.  Jaire has never been much for INTs, but improving there.  Savage was good early and faded.  

It is odd though with all the zone we play, you'd think we could get more INTs. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

3 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Ford and Rasual Douglas have been pretty good at INTs, but Ford has been on/off with injuries.  Jaire has never been much for INTs, but improving there.  Savage was good early and faded.  

It is odd though with all the zone we play, you'd think we could get more INTs. 

It's true the Packers play a ton of zone.  The issue is it feels like their zones get stretched a ton based on the scheme/formation, routinely seeing safeties drop way off in coverage and LBs get sucked up on playfakes - leaving enormous holes that short and intermediate passes don't have to fit through tight windows or have schemes that fool quarterbacks into throwing into coverage designed to pick a pass off.  It's like a 2 deep shell where the 2 deep are way too deep, and the shell has cracks in it.

Teams really don't even bother with throwing vertically deep against the Packers, because they can gouge them in 20-30 yard bursts in the passing game with high percentage throws that only have to travel 10-15 yards downfield into open spaces.  It's why it always feels like the Packers' defense is playing with 9 or 10 players - because there's always at least 1 or 2 guys on the field covering space that opponents never bother to send receivers.