Free Agents if Burnes/Adames Traded

[jay87shot]

If we trade Burnes and/or Adames we likely would have some money to spend. Maybe we would use that money to trade for someone like Eloy Jimenez.

Options

DH=Martinez, Turner (IF), Soler, Brantley

1B=Hoskins, Belt, Santana, Cron, Cooper

IF= Chapman, Merrifield, Anderson, Ursheala, Rosario

P=Clevinger, Paxton, Ryu, Stroman, Velasquez, Manaea, Woodruff, Lorenzen, (Bauer/Urias if you want to get risky)

If we trade both I would go after Justin Turner as my 1st option, he could help at 3B, play a bunch of 1st, and DH. If we get Turner I would probably go after Michael Lorenzen. Obviously the return in trades could change that alot. If we get younger prospects who are mlb ready maybe sign more veteran players like Santana, Merrifield, and Ryu.

[brewerfan82]

Interesting topic!

Looking at Cot's we're currently projected for about a $105M payroll (https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/). That includes estimates of $16M for Burnes and $13M for Adames. The last 4 full season opening day payrolls were $119M, $132M, $99M, and $123M. So we theoretically could have about $40-50M in payroll space to take on if they do indeed trade Burnes and Adames.

Looking at the possible acquisitions you listed, here are their projected '24 fWARs and estimated contracts from FG (https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker) and MLBTR (https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/2023-24-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html):

DH

• Martinez - 0.5 fWAR proj / 1 yr, $12M on FG / 2 yrs, $40M on MLBTR
• Turner - 0.7 fWAR / 1 yr, $12M / 1 yr, $16M
• Soler - 1.9 fWAR / 3 yrs, $48M / 3 yrs, $45M
• Brantley - 1.3 fWAR / 1 yr, $9M / --
• Jimenez - 2.2 fWAR / $13M in '24, $16.5M club option in '25 and $18.5M club option in '26

1B

• Hoskins - 2.0 fWAR / 1 yr, $14M / 2 yrs, $36M
• Belt - 0.5 fWAR / 1 yr, $9.5M / 1 yr, $15M
• Santana - 0.8 fWAR / 1 yr, $7M / --
• Cron - 0.3 fWAR / 1 yr, $5M / --
• Cooper - 0.3 fWAR / -- / --

IF (Note: Adames is projected for 3.1 fWAR)

• Chapman - 2.6 fWAR / 4 yrs, $80M / 6 yrs, $150M
• Merrifield - 0.7 fWAR / 2 yrs, $16M / 2 yrs, $18M
• Tim Anderson - 1.6 fWAR / 1 yr, $8M / 1 yr, $12M
• Urshela - 1.1 fWAR / -- / 2 yrs, $20M
• Rosario - 2.3 fWAR / 2 yrs, $18M / 2 yrs, $18M

SP (Note: Burnes is projected for 3.8 fWAR)

• Clevinger - 1.4 fWAR / 2 yrs, $24M / 2 yrs, $26M
• Paxton - 2.3 fWAR / 1 yr, $8M / --
• Ryu - 1.8 fWAR / 1 yr, $10M / --
• Stroman - 2.6 fWAR / 3 yrs, $66M / 2 yrs, $44M
• Velasquez - 0.2 fWAR / -- / --
• Manaea - 2.0 fWAR / 2 yrs, $24M / 2 yrs, $22M
• Lorenzen - 1.2 fWAR / 2 yrs, $20M / 2 yrs, $22M

 

So theoretically.... they could pick up something like Jimenez ($13M), Hoskins (~$16M), Rosario (~$9M), and take a chance on someone like Paxton or Ryu (~$9M) and fit in that range, plus whatever they get for Burnes and Adames.

Probably more impact players to be found in the trade market and I'm not too thrilled about any of the pitching options in FA, but fun to think about anyways!

[Madhawk23]

Yeah, I've been thinking about this as well over the past few weeks.  IF we were to trade Burnes and maybe even Adames - you'd think at least that we'd then be able to be much more active in pursuing some of the available FA's.  Not sure how in love I am with many of these available FA's this year, but if we could get potential impact MLB-ready players in return for Burnes and Adames and then go out and get someone like Jimenez, Hoskins, Rosario, etc.....I think we'd have the ability to field a competitive team in the NL Central - even as we continue to try to develop some of these younger guys on the roster (Chourio, Black, Sal, Mitchell, etc.).  

[alwz4gbp]

If we do trade them, and I am firmly in the camp that says YES, then this is a reloading year, do not throw money at FA's.  Paying JD Martinez or someone like that, makes zero sense to me.  Roll with what you've got and maybe you win the division or wild card.  That will get them a new tshirt and hat.  That's it.  The Dodgers and other big spenders have changed the rules for everyone.  Teams have to start saving money and hoarding prospects until they are ready.  The unleash your young studs and fill in with FA's.  That will keep your window open for a few years, then lather, rinse and repeat.   That's they only way that us, the pirates, twins etc have any kind of realistic chance.  There may be a small market team taht pops up every once in a while (Royals) but those are going to be exceedingly rare when the Dodgers bit 700 mill for one guy. Mark A should ask for that contract and give the guy his franchise.   Something has to be done with the big market clubs or baseball will collapse on itself.  

And if they do trade those two, toss Williams in there too cuz he's not going to make a difference.  Get QUALITY, not quantity.  If they walk away with only 3 players for our 3, I'm fine with that if they are quality.  

[wildcat2237]

32 minutes ago, alwz4gbp said:

If we do trade them, and I am firmly in the camp that says YES, then this is a reloading year, do not throw money at FA's.  Paying JD Martinez or someone like that, makes zero sense to me.  Roll with what you've got and maybe you win the division or wild card.  That will get them a new tshirt and hat.  That's it.  The Dodgers and other big spenders have changed the rules for everyone.  Teams have to start saving money and hoarding prospects until they are ready.  The unleash your young studs and fill in with FA's.  That will keep your window open for a few years, then lather, rinse and repeat.   That's they only way that us, the pirates, twins etc have any kind of realistic chance.  There may be a small market team taht pops up every once in a while (Royals) but those are going to be exceedingly rare when the Dodgers bit 700 mill for one guy. Mark A should ask for that contract and give the guy his franchise.   Something has to be done with the big market clubs or baseball will collapse on itself.  

And if they do trade those two, toss Williams in there too cuz he's not going to make a difference.  Get QUALITY, not quantity.  If they walk away with only 3 players for our 3, I'm fine with that if they are quality.  

I agree with every word of this post. If you are trading Burnes and Adames, then 2024 is a reloading year. May as well trade Williams too and get it over with.  After that, no reason to spend big on FA's to go from below average to average. That would likely net some albatrosses that would need to be DFA'd in 2027 anways. 

2024 will be a re-tool year. If the return for Burnes, Adames, Williams is right, I truly believe those prospects, combined with the current system, would put together a competitive 2025 team. 

[Playing Catch]

There's a lot of ways they could go.

Two players that intrigue me because they are most likely short-term, low-risk investments are Tim Anderson and Sean Manaea. Anderson is especially interesting due to his potential reward.

[brewcrewdue80]

You know, there's another part along the lines of this topic.  The Brewers FO has shed a contract for another contract.  Adames(since Turang can backup) would fit the bill of trading for the 8-14M 1 or 2 yr contract player of another team.  Only Adames would be higher return unless the other player is also value higher.  Where's Tampa after their stud SS Franco problems?  

Yancy Diaz appears to be a stud for 1b the last 2 seasons.  He'll make 8M,-10M,  and 12 team option.  Along with 2 years team control but approximate 4.5M then arb 3 Harold Ramirez who's a tier below easily Diaz with little game experience at 1b. Definitely poor defensively but solid bat. 

Mlb Depth chart shows Jose Siri as the Rays CF right now. (We have 3 for them to pluck from)  That depth chart doesn't even include Franco already, completely removed.

Diaz would be a stud to have for 1b next 3 seasons. Reunite Adames in Tampa with Mitchell for Diaz some cash and I dunno prospect capitol you have Tampa toss in.

[BrewerFan]

14 hours ago, alwz4gbp said:

  That's it.  The Dodgers and other big spenders have changed the rules for everyone. 

They really haven't though. The Mets started last year with a 344M opening day payroll. The Dodgers went out and signed Ohtani to a massive deal, but this seismic shift really hasn't taken place. 

It didn't any more than when Arod signed a massive deal or he was traded to the Yanks or the Dodgers a few years ago were spending a ton of money. Big market teams throw around money. They haven't changed the rules or really even changed the games, just reminded those who somehow forgot about the financial realities(Which really should happen every year....when Cole gets 300M+ or a couple of 40-year-olds get 43M on multi-year deals).

 

I do agree the Brewers should pick a lane and signing aging vets on the downside makes little sense if you trade Burnes and Adames...and Williams. I've argued for a while now Williams+Burnes makes a package for teams like Philly or others where we may be able to pry away a higher-tier arm we otherwise wouldn't. 

[jay87shot]

23 hours ago, alwz4gbp said:

If we do trade them, and I am firmly in the camp that says YES, then this is a reloading year, do not throw money at FA's.  Paying JD Martinez or someone like that, makes zero sense to me.  Roll with what you've got and maybe you win the division or wild card.  That will get them a new tshirt and hat.  That's it.  The Dodgers and other big spenders have changed the rules for everyone.  Teams have to start saving money and hoarding prospects until they are ready.  The unleash your young studs and fill in with FA's.  That will keep your window open for a few years, then lather, rinse and repeat.   That's they only way that us, the pirates, twins etc have any kind of realistic chance.  There may be a small market team taht pops up every once in a while (Royals) but those are going to be exceedingly rare when the Dodgers bit 700 mill for one guy. Mark A should ask for that contract and give the guy his franchise.   Something has to be done with the big market clubs or baseball will collapse on itself.  

And if they do trade those two, toss Williams in there too cuz he's not going to make a difference.  Get QUALITY, not quantity.  If they walk away with only 3 players for our 3, I'm fine with that if they are quality.  

I feel like we could still contend, at least in the central. I would be ok trading Williams as well but it would have to be for an overpay or getting one top 30 high end prospect (with other peices). Sure trading Burnes, Adames, and Williams would take away like 10 WAR.  But with a money ball approach we can make up for that. 2B, 3B, RF, CF, and DH were not good adding better pieces or young player improvement can make up for that especially if we add a free agent with the money saved.

Think of a Burnes trade like this

Burnes to Boston for Rafeala, Houck, mid prospect and then sign Justin Turner with the Burnes money.

Adames, Peguero, and a prospect for Edward Cabrera use the money for Michael Lorenzen

We would have a deeper lineup with 3 legit middle of the order bats a collection of good young pitching and still one of the best bullpen. With guys to trade from (Weimer/Mitchell, Quero, extra pitching) mid-season if we want to add. 

The problem is we probably would need to get rid of Bauers and Rea.