Wisconsin Football 2024

[yourout]

56 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

When you consider the money involved, McIntosh would be a less costly contract to eat even though he has 4.5 years left. But it would be hard to imagine hiring a new AD & telling him/her they can't fire Fickell, which is what I think they would be told. This isn't the SEC, where you can line up a host of good ol' boy, football crazed boosters, many worth seven figures, to buy out a contract because to them life isn't worth living because their team went 6-6. IMO Mac is in no danger at this point, and Fickell has next year & probably at least one more to prove whatever it is that the Luke Fickells of the world are here to prove.

Is there any big school openings that would even remotely consider taking him off our hands?

[Jim French Stepstool]

36 minutes ago, yourout said:

Is there any big school openings that would even remotely consider taking him off our hands?

Not for the money he's already getting here, so there's no reason for him to leave. He needs to repair the reputation--deserved or not--he built in Cincy. That starts with making staff hires that actually work out.

Funny thing, if you believe the # of stars after the names, he's actually recruited pretty well. For anyone defending him, that's what you can hang your hat on--the idea that he hasn't had the chance to stack a few classes together yet. But it still comes back to the same thing: developing them & having the people on the staff that can accomplish that.

[yourout]

The Golden domers are counting their blessings that they didn't sign Fickell.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/how-notre-dame-football-dodged-potential-bullet-in-2021-a-look-back/ar-AA1v0MgV?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=a4f6dbd4fd6149e6b16a4ed812d3363f&ei=16

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

Just a little bit of sobering math for anyone hoping Fickell gets canned. If he was fired tomorrow, the way I understand it the buyout would be around 34 million. That's about 5.07 billion in Japanese yen if we also insisted he leave the country.

It decreases all the way down to about 26 million if he coaches one more year.

[Jim French Stepstool]

15 hours ago, yourout said:

The Golden domers are counting their blessings that they didn't sign Fickell.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/how-notre-dame-football-dodged-potential-bullet-in-2021-a-look-back/ar-AA1v0MgV?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=a4f6dbd4fd6149e6b16a4ed812d3363f&ei=16

 

Interesting. Of course, with their network of nationwide alums & NBC connection ND can withstand a bad choice or three & come up swingin' before too much time goes by.

[yourout]

5 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Interesting. Of course, with their network of nationwide alums & NBC connection ND can withstand a bad choice or three & come up swingin' before too much time goes by.

I think most of what made Fickell successful in Cincinnati was his assistants and most of his coordinators did not come to Madison with him. 

That and he stumbled into some NFL level talent while not having to play a particularly daunting schedule.

 

[JosephC]

17 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Just a little bit of sobering math for anyone hoping Fickell gets canned. If he was fired tomorrow, the way I understand it the buyout would be around 34 million. That's about 5.07 billion in Japanese yen if we also insisted he leave the country.

It decreases all the way down to about 26 million if he coaches one more year.

McIntosh will not fire Fickell unless the order comes from above, which isn't happening anytime soon.  Every now and then you will run into a chancellor who has particular interest in the athletic department, but Jennifer Mnookin doesn't strike me as one of those people.  The UW administration as a whole will only care about the athletic department's balance sheet, and will only react AFTER something significant happens there.  If the athletic department's revenue remains strong, I don't think there is any chance McIntosh gets any interference with what he's doing.  And as upset as I suspect most Badger fans are, I don't see Camp Randall's attendance dropping to 55,000 per game next year.

And as far as McIntosh firing Fickell without influence from his boss, well, he pretty much put his reputation on the line when he got rid of a successful head coach, passed on a popular internal candidate and went with his hand-picked guy.  I don't see him as being very quick to admit he made a mistake.  If anything, I see him sticking with Fickell right until the moment where he thinks his own job is in serious jeopardy.

[nate82]

4 hours ago, JosephC said:

when he got rid of a successful head coach, passed on a popular internal candidate and went with his hand-picked guy. 

PC wasn’t a successful head coach.  He was an average at best HC.  If anything if the Badgers would have continued with PC I believe the program would be in worse shape than it is now.  There would be 0 4 star recruits and the program would look more like a MAC team than a B10 team.  The same with Leonard he wouldn’t be as successful in recruiting as Fickell has been.  Leonard not getting a HC interview is telling on what everyone thinks about him as a HC.  He just isn’t a HC a great defensive coordinator but not a HC.

I believe the system is better off than some think it is.  They need to get a good offensive coordinator so they actually have an identity on offense.  The WR’s are actually rather good but a bit raw.  Both the offensive and defensive line need to improve but I like who they have coming in next year.  Linebackers need to play a bit more disciplined and when they have they looked really good.  Better play on the d-line should help the linebackers.

Going to harp on this again but a better QB would help this team tremendously.  I am not even asking for a Peyton Manning here just someone better than Locke.

[JosephC]

50 minutes ago, nate82 said:

PC wasn’t a successful head coach.

Chryst had a .713 winning percentage in the regular season, .705 against the Big 10 and .857 in bowl games.

 

[LouisEly]

First two players in the portal - OLB Leon Lowery and CB Amare Snowden.

Lowery is JAG, no big loss.  Snowden was a high 3-star according to 24/7 who Fickell flipped from Cincinnati.  He had some heavy things in his personal/family life this year, and may be looking to go closer to home or get a fresh start which would be understandable.

Interesting thing is that Jesse Temple got an exit interview with Lowery, and he said that he was leaving because Tressel told him that they are going in a different direction with their defense next year.  Between this and the firing of Longo, I'm guessing (and it's just a guess) that Fickell is on a performance improvement plan just like Chryst was and that changes are being asked/demanded to be made.

[Jim French Stepstool]

8 hours ago, JosephC said:

Chryst had a .713 winning percentage in the regular season, .705 against the Big 10 and .857 in bowl games.

 

Agree. I understand why Chryst was let go. He wasn't a glad-hander. He didn't immerse himself in recruiting, personal appearances or fundraising, just wanted to attend practices & gameday & otherwise be left alone. And that wasn't going to fly. But he was definitely above an 'average at best' moniker. All things considered, he's the type of guy that would've been best served remaining as an OC.

[Jim French Stepstool]

9 hours ago, nate82 said:

PC wasn’t a successful head coach.  He was an average at best HC.  If anything if the Badgers would have continued with PC I believe the program would be in worse shape than it is now.  There would be 0 4 star recruits and the program would look more like a MAC team than a B10 team.  The same with Leonard he wouldn’t be as successful in recruiting as Fickell has been.  Leonard not getting a HC interview is telling on what everyone thinks about him as a HC.  He just isn’t a HC a great defensive coordinator but not a HC.

 

The problem is, they've often looked like a MAC-level team WITH the 4-stars sprinkled in.

You'd like to have both, but if it's one or the other give me the 3-stars with coaches that know how to develop. That's why Fickells' choice(s) for his staff going forward are critical. You need to find people who make kids better, whether it be 3 stars, 4, 5, or walkons. What scheme you run, what system you install is of course important, but a waste of time if you can't develop.

Had he been given the job, I think given his inexperience Leonhard would've relied heavily on the staff he put together. Looking at the last two years w/Bicknell getting canned, Longo not working out & the Jack Del Rio fiasco, could JL have put together something with more continuity given the connections a lengthy pro career might've fostered? We'll never know.

[yfinn6]

22 hours ago, LouisEly said:

First two players in the portal - OLB Leon Lowery and CB Amare Snowden.

Lowery is JAG, no big loss.  Snowden was a high 3-star according to 24/7 who Fickell flipped from Cincinnati.  He had some heavy things in his personal/family life this year, and may be looking to go closer to home or get a fresh start which would be understandable.

Interesting thing is that Jesse Temple got an exit interview with Lowery, and he said that he was leaving because Tressel told him that they are going in a different direction with their defense next year.  Between this and the firing of Longo, I'm guessing (and it's just a guess) that Fickell is on a performance improvement plan just like Chryst was and that changes are being asked/demanded to be made.

Sounds like the staff wants Lowery to play with his hand in the dirt and he wants to play standing up. Thinking that if he can't make the right reads, at least he can absorb some blocks and he said, "nah". 

[homer]

Curt Neal enters the portal. 

[yourout]

I'm guessing they turn over at least 1/3 of the roster in one way or another.

[Underachiever]

1 hour ago, yourout said:

I'm guessing they turn over at least 1/3 of the roster in one way or another.

24 seniors, six transfers so far. That's 30. Only five more to get to 1/3. They will blow past that number.

[yourout]

29 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

24 seniors, six transfers so far. That's 30. Only five more to get to 1/3. They will blow past that number.

Damn .. it could be 1/2.

That might be a good thing.

[CheezWizHed]

22 minutes ago, yourout said:

Damn .. it could be 1/2.

That might be a good thing.

Interesting summary by Google's AI Overview: 

In 2023, 20.5% of FBS rosters were made up of transfer players. In the same year, over 31,000 student-athletes entered the transfer portal, but only about 45% were able to move to new schools.

And from ChatGPT:

The transfer rate in NCAA football has been influenced significantly by the introduction of NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) rules, with a notable increase in player movement through the transfer portal. Recent reports indicate that the NCAA football transfer rate is around 15%-20%, meaning about one in five players is transferring between programs annually. 

With seniors accounting for about 25% of the roster and if a 15-20% transfer rate is "normal", having 25% transfer from a poor team doesn't seem to be out of the ordinary.  So a 50% turnover doesn't seem like a very high watermark honestly...

What is sadder is the 45% of transfers that don't find a new dance partner. That should be a word of warning to many...

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, homer said:

Curt Neal enters the portal. 

Not a standout---it's hard to be when you're a NT---but I thought he performed pretty reliably, especially when compared to the D line group as a whole. Not good news.

[Jim French Stepstool]

13 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Interesting summary by Google's AI Overview: 

In 2023, 20.5% of FBS rosters were made up of transfer players. In the same year, over 31,000 student-athletes entered the transfer portal, but only about 45% were able to move to new schools.

And from ChatGPT:

The transfer rate in NCAA football has been influenced significantly by the introduction of NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) rules, with a notable increase in player movement through the transfer portal. Recent reports indicate that the NCAA football transfer rate is around 15%-20%, meaning about one in five players is transferring between programs annually. 

With seniors accounting for about 25% of the roster and if a 15-20% transfer rate is "normal", having 25% transfer from a poor team doesn't seem to be out of the ordinary.  So a 50% turnover doesn't seem like a very high watermark honestly...

What is sadder is the 45% of transfers that don't find a new dance partner. That should be a word of warning to many...

It SHOULD be a word of warning, but good luck with that. When you're at that age & good enough to be on a collegiate roster in the first place, you think the only way that you aren't a standout is that you aren't being given the opportunity. There are 2nd & 3rd teamers, sure; but I'M not one of them. Throw in the ease of transferring w/o having to sit out & suddenly staying where you are and working to get better becomes pretty unattractive.

As much as I hate all this, 45% sounds incredibly high given the size of FB rosters & all the FCS teams out there.

[Playing Catch]

19 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

What is sadder is the 45% of transfers that don't find a new dance partner. That should be a word of warning to many...

It doesn't make me sad. They aren't good enough. They wash themselves out. They get on with their lives. It's sad in the sense that they may not end up with a free education, but if they're playing the transfer game, they're not there to play school anyway.

It DOES make me sad that the whole "free college" aspect of playing D1 football has been totally lost in all of the NIL stuff. Ask any of us that are paying off student debt into middle age if getting a scholarship is being compensated for "working" as a football player.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Major College football is now nothing but an extended combine workout for the NFL - just watch what happens when the NFL adjusts their draft rule to allow players younger than 3 yrs removed from H.S. to enter the draft. Even shifting that from 3 to 2 years would turn this whole thing on its ear even more.

[JosephC]

28 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Major College football is now nothing but an extended combine workout for the NFL - just watch what happens when the NFL adjusts their draft rule to allow players younger than 3 yrs removed from H.S. to enter the draft. Even shifting that from 3 to 2 years would turn this whole thing on its ear even more.

The NFL will not change the rule because the NFL has fought major court battles to keep this rule in place.  College football is a completely free developmental league/minor-league system for them.  What could be better?

 

[homer]

2 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

It doesn't make me sad. They aren't good enough. They wash themselves out. They get on with their lives. It's sad in the sense that they may not end up with a free education, but if they're playing the transfer game, they're not there to play school anyway.

It DOES make me sad that the whole "free college" aspect of playing D1 football has been totally lost in all of the NIL stuff. Ask any of us that are paying off student debt into middle age if getting a scholarship is being compensated for "working" as a football player.

It wasn't about free college before NIL. It's been a big business for 30+ years.

[CheezWizHed]

22 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

As much as I hate all this, 45% sounds incredibly high given the size of FB rosters & all the FCS teams out there.

It is and it isn't. You have a lot of work to establish continuity amoung players.  Teamwork, etc.. But when you consider 25% turnover is your minimum because of seniors leaving... and a higher percentage of starters... An additional 20% isn't that much more.  Especially because a lot of the transfer turnover happens at the lower "I can't get an opportunity here" realm than with your starters.