Are Willy Adames and Corbin Burnes Trades Unlikely to Happen?

[Brock Beauchamp]

With the recent Rhys Hoskins signing, General Manager Matt Arnold has firmly committed the Brewers to contending in 2024, and that's a good thing. The projected payroll is still roughly $20 million lower than it was in 2023 and there is no indication whether the Brewers are lowering payroll amidst television broadcast uncertainty or if they're still in the market to add more players this offseason.

But the general consensus among the rumor-mongers is that trades of either or both Willy Adames and Corbin Burnes are increasingly unlikely to happen this winter. Every Burnes rumor thus far has stalled out before it gained traction. Willy Adames has been even less connected to specific rumors, only speculation.

In the case of Adames, if the Brewers were truly in the market to deal him, we'd likely hear significant rumblings about it, as the shortstop free agent class this offseason was the worst we've seen in several years. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, possibly the best shortstop on the market, signed only a two-year deal with the Blue Jays and is a pale comparison to Adames, whose glove guarantees a relatively high floor for the 28 year old.

Burnes is harder to predict. He has stated he plans to explore free agency after the 2024 season and the pitching market has been slow to develop. High-profile free agents Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are still available while Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber are being offered in trade. Whether the Brewers are truly interested in trading Burnes or not, the timer might run out on Spring Training before a market materializes for the 2021 Cy Young Award winner.

 

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[jay87shot]

It is always about what value is offered, at this point I would be surprised if Burnes is traded because signing Hoskins and then trading Burnes would be a contradiction. I do think that we could make up for a Willy trade but again I doubt the offers have been big enough to warrant taking that risk. 

[Rick Daltons Flamethrower]

Let's use the extra 20 million on a left handed reliever and a third baseman.

[Playing Catch]

This is silly to say, I know, but in a weird way, I think it would be easier to replace Burnes than Willy. With a Burnes trade, you'll be able to at least cover his innings using a bunch of guys, perhaps MLB-ready guys that would be part of a strong return. But trading Willy means Turang is the only SS that I can see in the organization that can reasonably be expected to be ready to play in MLB this season. If Turang would get hurt in this scenario, who plays short?

[rolafaive]

I still firmly believe that the Brewers will somehow come to an extension with Willy and leave Turang at 2nd base. Burnes being a Boris client stands no chance of staying with Brewers long term and thus will be flipped during season if one of the youngsters stand out or for sure at trade deadline where they still will receive a descent trade package.

[TURBO]

13 minutes ago, rolafaive said:

I still firmly believe that the Brewers will somehow come to an extension with Willy and leave Turang at 2nd base. Burnes being a Boris client stands no chance of staying with Brewers long term and thus will be flipped during season if one of the youngsters stand out or for sure at trade deadline where they still will receive a descent trade package.

Again, Burnes will not be traded at the deadline unless we are out of the playoff hunt.  I'm not sure why people keep posting this.

The above is my opinion, not factual.

[wibadgers23]

17 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Again, Burnes will not be traded at the deadline unless we are out of the playoff hunt.  I'm not sure why people keep posting this.

The above is my opinion, not factual.

Yeah and they’ll need to be WAY out of the playoff race. Even if they’re just in the hunt which is very likely, they’re not going to pull another Hader trade and piss everybody off.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

15 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Again, Burnes will not be traded at the deadline unless we are out of the playoff hunt.  I'm not sure why people keep posting this.

The above is my opinion, not factual.

Agreed. The Brewers took major fallout both internally and externally when they dealt Hader at the deadline a couple years ago while sitting in 1st place. I highly doubt that they will make a similar move with Burnes. And signing Hoskins was very much a "we intend to be in the playoff hunt" move.

[CheezWizHed]

I doubt Burnes is moved at this pace, but it does leave me a bit concerned about our future rotation... 

• Peralta - $8M club options for 2025 and 2026 (boy was that contract a winner!). 
• Ashby - High end, but high risk with his injuries.  Not sure what to expect out of him. 
• Misiorowski - Probably our only minor league pitcher with TOR possibilities. 
• Gasser - Mid-low end rotation potential.  Risk against RH hitters. 
• Rodriguez - probably about the same as Gasser. 
• Miley - not sure how long he can continue to pitch well AND sign low end contracts AND stay healthy.
• Rea, Ross - retread filler #5 rotational types.

If Ashby and Les Mis' can hit their peaks, that rotation probably matches our past Burnes/Woo/Peralta rotations. But I think that is a big IF - especially Ashby's health. 

By moving Burnes and Adames now, you get the chance of bringing back 2-3 higher end SP options to fill that gap. A small step down this year, but a big step up in future years.

But it certainly doesn't look like that will happen. 

[Playing Catch]

14 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

but it does leave me a bit concerned about our future rotation... 

I agree there's a vacuum left with Burnes and Woody, but there's still lots of hope that one or two of these guys take a big step forward this season, or when they return from injury...

Bradley Blalock, Coleman Crow, Edwin Jimenez, Logan Henderson, Josh Knoth, Ryan Birchard, Bishop Letson.

Now, obviously some of those guys are more than a year away, but if they end up being good, they probably aren't too much further away than late '26.

My point is that the system is deeper than just Misiorowski, Gasser, and Rodriguez.

[CheezWizHed]

15 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I agree there's a vacuum left with Burnes and Woody, but there's still lots of hope that one or two of these guys take a big step forward this season, or when they return from injury...

Bradley Blalock, Coleman Crow, Edwin Jimenez, Logan Henderson, Josh Knoth, Ryan Birchard, Bishop Letson.

Now, obviously some of those guys are more than a year away, but if they end up being good, they probably aren't too much further away than late '26.

My point is that the system is deeper than just Misiorowski, Gasser, and Rodriguez.

I appreciate the optimism, but statistics and scouting say that most of those guys won't reach the bigs and will make a minimum impact if they do.  Yes, someone can always break out, but probably only one at most. 

[Playing Catch]

2 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

I appreciate the optimism, but statistics and scouting say that most of those guys won't reach the bigs and will make a minimum impact if they do.  Yes, someone can always break out, but probably only one at most. 

Sure, but twelve months from now I would expect that one of (two of?) the guys I listed will be featured in threads just like this one, and will be  generally regarded as a top 10 prospects in the organization, with a chance of being top 100 prospects in MLB. All of them have enough statistical/scouting profiles to make such jumps. Neither Woodruff or Burnes were consensus top 100 prospects beyond perhaps the last 6 months or so of their minor league development, and they had similar profiles as these guys.

I happen to think that there has been enough smoke surrounding the organization in the last few years to believe that they are good at developing pitching, not just lucking into pitching.

[StearnsFTW]

On 1/29/2024 at 9:25 AM, rolafaive said:

I still firmly believe that the Brewers will somehow come to an extension with Willy and leave Turang at 2nd base. Burnes being a Boris client stands no chance of staying with Brewers long term and thus will be flipped during season if one of the youngsters stand out or for sure at trade deadline where they still will receive a descent trade package.

This is my fear.  I hope they do not extend Adames.