2024 NFL Draft - Packers Focused

[Joseph Zarr]

The NFL draft season is underway with the East/West Shrine Game and Senior Bowl practices ongoing. I figured we should start a designated NFL draft thread. This thread will be Packers focused but, feel free to present league wide discussion. Post your draft thoughts here.

To that end, the Pack-a-Day Podcast in collaboration with Ross Uglem and the Packer Report just began their 'Daily Draft' podcast. It will feature a draft specific discourse once a day M-F.

Here was (Mock Draft) Monday's pod:

And, here is Day 2's deep dive on Kool-Aid McKinstry:

 

[BrewerFan]

I thought it was silly when Ross just flatly dismissed the idea that the Packers would draft a guy like Fuaga in the first round because...he's 334 pounds. It was right after they mention how the Packers "aren't going to draft a CB under 5'11, they're just not going to do it." 

Jaire Alexander...5'10. 

And he even used Sherrod as an example. Sherrod was 6'5 321. So...not seeing a huge difference. You look for guys with the feet and athletic ability to play OT. You don't eliminate guys because...they're too big. 

 

I love the Graham Barton suggestion, I like the Troy Fautanu idea, Morgan is an incredible athlete. Not sure either will be there, but I think the entire logic is flawed. Ron Wolf taught Ted Thompson who taught Brian Gutekunst. And they all do things VERY differently. Gutekunst drafts size, speed, basically RAS and puts a FAR higher emphasis on it than Thompson did. 

Gutekunst and Wolf approach Free Agency FAR differently than Thompson did. You can't just say they all do things one way.

It's just a flawed starting place IMO. Does anyone truly think the Packers look at a OT who's 6'7 and say, "no, that's too tall...we're going to ignore the fact that many of the all-time great tackles were 6'7 and we need to make sure a player is 6'5."

I like that Gutekunst has shown he's willing to do things differently. 

[CheezWizHed]

3 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

It's just a flawed starting place IMO. Does anyone truly think the Packers look at a OT who's 6'7 and say, "no, that's too tall...we're going to ignore the fact that many of the all-time great tackles were 6'7 and we need to make sure a player is 6'5."

Just ask him to slump a little bit... 

[Joseph Zarr]

15 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I thought it was silly when Ross just flatly dismissed the idea that the Packers would draft a guy like Fuaga in the first round because...he's 334 pounds. It was right after they mention how the Packers "aren't going to draft a CB under 5'11, they're just not going to do it." 

Jaire Alexander...5'10. 

And he even used Sherrod as an example. Sherrod was 6'5 321. So...not seeing a huge difference. You look for guys with the feet and athletic ability to play OT. You don't eliminate guys because...they're too big. 

 

I love the Graham Barton suggestion, I like the Troy Fautanu idea, Morgan is an incredible athlete. Not sure either will be there, but I think the entire logic is flawed. Ron Wolf taught Ted Thompson who taught Brian Gutekunst. And they all do things VERY differently. Gutekunst drafts size, speed, basically RAS and puts a FAR higher emphasis on it than Thompson did. 

Gutekunst and Wolf approach Free Agency FAR differently than Thompson did. You can't just say they all do things one way.

It's just a flawed starting place IMO. Does anyone truly think the Packers look at a OT who's 6'7 and say, "no, that's too tall...we're going to ignore the fact that many of the all-time great tackles were 6'7 and we need to make sure a player is 6'5."

I like that Gutekunst has shown he's willing to do things differently. 

I think you're overstating Ross's position here. He (and the entire Packer Report draft team, honestly) obviously does the deep dives into 'Packers types'. BUT, he also acknowledges that tho there are obvious tendencies the Packers do (especially under Gutekunst) show an ability to deviate in random situations. Having followed his football thoughts for awhile now, I think he knows football; he knows Packers types; and he knows they aren't gospel. It's kind of like trading Markets, honestly. Certain patterns over time give you high probabilities the price action is going somewhere. But, it certainly doesn't mean that's where it's going. It's just the probabilities and the statistical trends that inform where you think the price action is going to go - if that makes sense.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

23 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

I think you're overstating Ross's position here. He (and the entire Packer Report draft team, honestly) obviously does the deep dives into 'Packers types'. BUT, he also acknowledges that tho there are obvious tendencies the Packers do (especially under Gutekunst) show an ability to deviate in random situations. Having followed his football thoughts for awhile now, I think he knows football; he knows Packers types; and he knows they aren't gospel. It's kind of like trading Markets, honestly. Certain patterns over time give you high probabilities the price action is going somewhere. But, it certainly doesn't mean that's where it's going. It's just the probabilities and the statistical trends that inform where you think the price action is going to go - if that makes sense.

Yep ... there are guys every year who, while being top-ranked players, you can kind of pinpoint as not really being Packer types. Huge road-grading O-linemen are not really the types of players the Packers grab. They like mobility and flexibility. Fuaga is 100% the type of O-lineman they avoid. That doesn't mean he's a bad player. Just that they feel he isn't a great fit for their scheme.

[Joseph Zarr]

Personally, I hope this is the year they recognize Nickel CB is a starting position with its own draft criteria and physical requirements. Target an expressly Slot CB please. With all due respect to Mr. Nixon - a game changing returner - the Packers would greatly benefit targeting a Slot cover guy early in the draft and pushing Nixon to a Dime or back-up role. 

[LouisEly]

Right now and up until about a week before the draft, pretty much everything that comes out is going to be or have clickbait in one form or another.  They're all going to have some hot takes on some players who are deliberately ranked well above or well below where they should be just to generate clicks and discussion.  They'll make changes every couple of weeks to generate new content and rarely will it be based on new information (except for the combine, if they even participate in any events, or their pro day). 

Case in point - Daniel Jeremiah's initial top 50.  Kool-Aid McKinstry at #36?  "Concerns about deep speed"... really?  That's why everybody threw at Terrion Arnold (79 targets in 2023) and not him (39 targets)?  Even if he runs >4.50 he has length and ideal size (6'1", 195).

[BrewerFan]

22 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Just ask him to slump a little bit... 

LOL...right! I get they have to generate content, but sometimes it's just silly. Players are getting bigger. If they don't take Fuaga, it will NOT be because he's too big. 

10 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

I think you're overstating Ross's position here. He (and the entire Packer Report draft team, honestly) obviously does the deep dives into 'Packers types'. BUT, he also acknowledges that tho there are obvious tendencies the Packers do (especially under Gutekunst)

I don't think I am. He qualified that they MIIIGHT take Alt and break their "rule," for him. THERE IS NO RULE! It's just something they created out of nowhere. 6'6 334 vs 6'5 321? Players are getting bigger.

And what are the criteria/tendancies under Gute? He hasn't targeted OL early on save for Jenkins and Meyers(who broke every "rule" they would have assumed they had for Center at 6'5). 

There's are two he has. 1-Elite athlete, 2-Premium position...and probably in that order given the selection of Walker. But no, he said flat out how he has to laugh and tell people the Packers "just aren't taking Fuaga." And his entire rationale was...height and weight. It's silly. 

[patrickgpe]

It’s early, but I wish they would focus on the offensive line and secondary in the first 2 rounds.

[BrewerFan]

10 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Yep ... there are guys every year who, while being top-ranked players, you can kind of pinpoint as not really being Packer types. Huge road-grading O-linemen are not really the types of players the Packers grab. They like mobility and flexibility. Fuaga is 100% the type of O-lineman they avoid. That doesn't mean he's a bad player. Just that they feel he isn't a great fit for their scheme.

Who are these players that have been surefire 1st rd picks that it seemed like the Packers should have taken only to pass on because they're the types they avoid? There are very rarely huge physical OL who are top-ranked players who are available when the Packers are picking(because you generally take those players). And of the Packers O-linemen they've drafted in the top 3 rounds, Jenkins, Myers and Ryan, they were all viewed as big, physical road-grading O-Lineman with questions about their pass blocking. 

Fauga is not the type of OL ANY smart team would or should "avoid" based on...his what? Size? That was the lone reason they gave. He IS versatile, he CAN play Guard...though you'd be foolish to target a 1st rd pick, particularly in this draft(with it's OL depth) and not take a guy who looks like a surefire NFL starter at OT because he can't also play Guard.

If the Packers take Fuaga or if they do not(obviously it's more likely they don't take him than do), it'll be FAR more dependent upon his testing than his size. That's the point. Again, they used HEIGHT as an argument to not take him and to maybe break this nonexistent tendency and take Alt in the hypothetical that he'd be available.

There are also so many differences between how Wolf approached things vs Thompson vs Gutekunst, so these tendencies are silly. 

 

7 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

Personally, I hope this is the year they recognize Nickel CB is a starting position with its own draft criteria and physical requirements. Target an expressly Slot CB please. With all due respect to Mr. Nixon - a game changing returner - the Packers would greatly benefit targeting a Slot cover guy early in the draft and pushing Nixon to a Dime or back-up role. 

I think they do, it's just so hard to find 3 starting CBs. They drafted Stokes after having Ja and King. Doubled up a couple of years at CB. 

With Valentine opposite Jaire right now, I don't think CB is a pressing need, but given Gutey's actual tendencies, I could see him still taking a corner early(if it's the BPA). 

I also think this is the time you see Gutey moving up in the draft at times, not down. 11 more picks, 5 in the top 91. If you see someone you like, go get him.

Especially with a new DC who...apparently, likes playing a lot of press and knocking guys off their routes/timing. 

I do hope Nixon is back. I don't think he's a great nickel or slot, but I think he could be an outstanding 3rd safety in a big nickel...or just a serviceable FS. He was among the league leaders in stops for a DB this year with 31(which is a pretty wild number). He's got really good ball skills, great speed. Just not elite quickness. 

[BrewerFan]

1 minute ago, patrickgpe said:

It’s early, but I wish they would focus on the offensive line and secondary in the first 2 rounds.

 

 

[CheezWizHed]

18 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

Personally, I hope this is the year they recognize Nickel CB is a starting position with its own draft criteria and physical requirements. Target an expressly Slot CB please. With all due respect to Mr. Nixon - a game changing returner - the Packers would greatly benefit targeting a Slot cover guy early in the draft and pushing Nixon to a Dime or back-up role. 

I don't think Nixon was all that bad as a nickel CB.  He had games where he played poorly, but he also had games where he made big plays and covered very well.  He isn't a lock-down CB, but decent.  Frankly for the draft, I hope they continue to draft outside CBs and find nickel CBs among the players they get.  It is kind of like drafting starting pitchers and converting some to the BP.  Draft for the high value positions and the lower value (slot CB) will come. 

As for "game changing returner"... he was the best (or one of the best at least) KRs in the league, but the impact of KRs has been neutered overall in the NFL. There really isn't a Cordelle Patterson type returner that you need to game plan for at this point. Calling KN a game changer at KR is too much, IMO

Thus, if they do bring KN back on a second contract (presumably for decent $$), I hope it is because he will do both KR and Nickel.  He isn't a good enough KR to spend FA money on to be a one trick pony. 

[Joseph Zarr]

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

I don't think Nixon was all that bad as a nickel CB.  He had games where he played poorly, but he also had games where he made big plays and covered very well.  He isn't a lock-down CB, but decent.  Frankly for the draft, I hope they continue to draft outside CBs and find nickel CBs among the players they get.  It is kind of like drafting starting pitchers and converting some to the BP.  Draft for the high value positions and the lower value (slot CB) will come. 

As for "game changing returner"... he was the best (or one of the best at least) KRs in the league, but the impact of KRs has been neutered overall in the NFL. There really isn't a Cordelle Patterson type returner that you need to game plan for at this point. Calling KN a game changer at KR is too much, IMO

Thus, if they do bring KN back on a second contract (presumably for decent $$), I hope it is because he will do both KR and Nickel.  He isn't a good enough KR to spend FA money on to be a one trick pony. 

I think what we are also discovering now that the season is over is Nixon played most of the season with multiple injuries. And, yet, he was available for his team every game. He really is a warrior from a different era with his mentality. Where I disagree with your sentiment here is '...continue drafting outside CBs...'. I would like that too, yes, simply due to the attrition of the position and the demands. BUT, I really want them to expressly target a CB who has shown their primary role is shifty slot receivers and backs. This might even demand they drop some of their size requirements. I just think the position in today's NFL is too important to expect you can throw an outside guy in there and see the results. NOW, this being said, I'd be more than happy to see them target an outside guy who has some flexibility while moving Jaire expressly into that slot role. I think Jaire would kill it in a slot/Nickel role. And, we know defenses are essentially in Nickel 70% of the time.

[Joseph Zarr]

The Packers definitely target Senior Bowl standouts. Here's a nice piece by Dan Dahlke (he's written for Lombardi Ave quite a bit) for CheeseheadTv on some Day 1 and Day 2 standouts:

Full Article Here
 

Quote

When it comes to the NFL Draft, the Reese's Senior Bowl is one of the best evaluation tools. And the Green Bay Packers have certainly made good use of it in recent memory. Last year, Brian Gutekunst selected Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave, Dontavyion Wicks, and Karl Brooks, who were all standouts at the Senior Bowl and then key contributors in their rookie season.

Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Devonte Wyatt, and Kingsley Enagbare made a splash down in Mobile, AL, in 2022 before carving out roles on the Packers roster.

 

[Joseph Zarr]

It's one rep, but, sheeesh, Toledo's Quinyon Mitchell looks incredible. He's been getting rave reviews across the board.

 

[nate82]

27 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

It's one rep, but, sheeesh, Toledo's Quinyon Mitchell looks incredible. He's been getting rave reviews across the board.

 

He is someone that I have heard mocked to the Bears in the 3rd round if he lasts that long.  I think he goes in the mid to late 2nd round.  If he has a good combine he could jump up to a late 1st or early 2nd round pick. 

[BrewerFan]

10 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

I don't think Nixon was all that bad as a nickel CB.  He had games where he played poorly, but he also had games where he made big plays and covered very well.  He isn't a lock-down CB, but decent.  Frankly for the draft, I hope they continue to draft outside CBs and find nickel CBs among the players they get.  It is kind of like drafting starting pitchers and converting some to the BP.  Draft for the high value positions and the lower value (slot CB) will come.

I think Nixon was really good in a few areas. Played well vs the run, he's got very good ball skills. He's not a great man cover however. Particularly vs the quicker WRers you see in the slot...though less now as teams are moving WRers all over the place and the Shanahan system is taking over and you're moving bigger WRers in the slot. Something we did with Jordy and Davante. 

But I agree, you just draft guys who can run, cover. If you have Valentine, Jaire and Stokes...you'll figure out the slot. You would ideally have some bigger, physical safeties in that scenario(and I'm not suggesting you count on Stokes, just as a hypothetical). 

I really would like to see Nixon back, just not at CB. 

10 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

As for "game changing returner"... he was the best (or one of the best at least) KRs in the league, but the impact of KRs has been neutered overall in the NFL. There really isn't a Cordelle Patterson type returner that you need to game plan for at this point. Calling KN a game changer at KR is too much, IMO

A return man is an ancillary benefit. He made an impact in...what, one game last year. That should not factor into bringing him back IMO. Not when you can raise your hand anywhere and get the ball at the 25...which I'd be totally find doing...unless you draft a dynamic WRer(or RB/CB) like Watson and you let him bring it out a few times early in his career. And that's just an example, I wouldn't have Watson returning kicks at this point because he's too important AND he's been too injured.

11 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Thus, if they do bring KN back on a second contract (presumably for decent $$), I hope it is because he will do both KR and Nickel.  He isn't a good enough KR to spend FA money on to be a one trick pony.

What do you think about him playing a safety? If we're going to play a single high safety, Bullock from USC would be a great fit(he's not tackler, but he's outstanding playing CF and taking away the middle of the field) which is apparently the game plan with the new DC.

 

9 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

I think what we are also discovering now that the season is over is Nixon played most of the season with multiple injuries. And, yet, he was available for his team every game. He really is a warrior from a different era with his mentality.

EVERY player is. The old cliche throwback...these dudes are all warriors. They all play through injuries.

He's a nice player, but EVERY player is injured. You're putting your body through hell. He's a tough guy, he's got a lot of heart...that's true. But that should be the standard, not the outlier. 

9 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

Where I disagree with your sentiment here is '...continue drafting outside CBs...'. I would like that too, yes, simply due to the attrition of the position and the demands. BUT, I really want them to expressly target a CB who has shown their primary role is shifty slot receivers and backs. This might even demand they drop some of their size requirements. I just think the position in today's NFL is too important to expect you can throw an outside guy in there and see the results. NOW, this being said, I'd be more than happy to see them target an outside guy who has some flexibility while moving Jaire expressly into that slot role. I think Jaire would kill it in a slot/Nickel role. And, we know defenses are essentially in Nickel 70% of the time.

You think those slot receivers are more difficult to cover than the outside WRers? Justin Jefferson, Chase, Adams, take your pick. They can all play slot. They play outside because they don't HAVE to play slot. Put Carrington Valentine in the slot and I have no doubt he'd be outstanding there. 

One of the big things the Packers need to do is cover the middle of the field more so that slot guy has some help. We saw it(FINALLY) vs Dallas and SF where they started playing more robber with Savage coming down over the middle and he had one pick 6 and if he had better hands, it would have been two. 

 

But this kid that you just posted about, Mitchell. Do you think he'd struggle to play slot? I don't. I think he can play anywhere in the secondary. He'll likely end up outside because that's where the best WRers generally are, but I don't think you need to go small to get a good slot or nickel CB.

[BrewerFan]

4 hours ago, nate82 said:

He is someone that I have heard mocked to the Bears in the 3rd round if he lasts that long.  I think he goes in the mid to late 2nd round.  If he has a good combine he could jump up to a late 1st or early 2nd round pick. 

I've seen him pushing into quite a few first-round mocks already. He and TJ Tampa have the most to gain from a really good combine, but he looks the part. 

[CheezWizHed]

On 2/1/2024 at 10:29 AM, Joseph Zarr said:

BUT, I really want them to expressly target a CB who has shown their primary role is shifty slot receivers and backs. This might even demand they drop some of their size requirements. I just think the position in today's NFL is too important to expect you can throw an outside guy in there and see the results. NOW, this being said, I'd be more than happy to see them target an outside guy who has some flexibility while moving Jaire expressly into that slot role. I think Jaire would kill it in a slot/Nickel role. And, we know defenses are essentially in Nickel 70% of the time.

I do think that Jaire would do well inside... but also simply following a WR around.  Sounds like we will be doing more man-to-man with this new DC. 

While the slot does have some unique challenges... mainly change of direction.  But it isn't like outside CBs can't do it.  Not everyone is going to be as good... but the key is finding good CBs. I think if you try to find a good slot and good outside - separating them... I think you'll find neither.  If you find multiple good outside CBs, you are going to find a few that do well inside. 

[Joseph Zarr]

I am just catching up to the Senior Bowl and Shrine Bowl discourse and I have to say:

TE Ben Sinnott (Kansas State) seems like a real upgrade from Deguara at the H-Back. He could be a real weapon for LaFleur and the offense.

[Joseph Zarr]

If any of you care to get a concise breakdown of the Senior Bowl and Shrine Bowl talent, here's a really good conversation between John Schmeelk and Tony Pauline. Especially deep dives on the OL, DL, WR, and CB's. Short session on LB's too. Three guys I came away with extremely curious about as to how and where they place on the Packers draft board:

• DL/Edge Darius Robinson out of Mizzou. Apparently, he was quite easily the most dominant defensive player in all of the Senior Bowl practices. Intriguing player.
• C/G Jackson Powers-Johnson - by every account he didn't lose a single rep in anything at the Senior Bowl. Was the class of the OL. I'll take that on the Packers OL at any point in time regardless of the position. He's currently guestimated to be valued right around the Packers 1st Rd pick. Can never have enough talent in the trenches. He would be an upgrade at any interior position Center to RG.
• ILB/WILB Cedric Gray out of UNC. He showed very well at the Shrine Bowl, apparently. Very ideal fit in a 4-3. Sideline-to-Sideline guy. Could be a guy to pair with Quay to let Quay do Quay things. Like Quay would imagine Quay. 🤭

 

[LouisEly]

On 2/7/2024 at 12:13 PM, Joseph Zarr said:

I am just catching up to the Senior Bowl and Shrine Bowl discourse and I have to say:

TE Ben Sinnott (Kansas State) seems like a real upgrade from Deguara at the H-Back. He could be a real weapon for LaFleur and the offense.

I'm looking at a guy right in your neck of the woods in Jack Westover of Washington.  Flying under the radar because the WRs get all of the attention but he's caught 77 passes over the last two seasons.  Had the 3rd most receptions on the team this past year.  If not for an injury during 2021 he would have played in every one of UW's games during his career except for his redshirt freshman year.

Also flying under the radar because he is a former walk-on, but he was a walk-on because he played one year of HS football and missed a majority of that season with injury.  Was a basketball player, went to one of UW's camps and was so impressive that they offered him as a PWO.

Didn't see him on the Senior Bowl, East-West Shrine, or Hula rosters, but he was invited to the combine.  I watched a few of their games; he looked very athletic and I think he'll test a lot better than people are expecting.  Lots of special teams experience.

[Joseph Zarr]

19 hours ago, LouisEly said:

I'm looking at a guy right in your neck of the woods in Jack Westover of Washington.  Flying under the radar because the WRs get all of the attention but he's caught 77 passes over the last two seasons.  Had the 3rd most receptions on the team this past year.  If not for an injury during 2021 he would have played in every one of UW's games during his career except for his redshirt freshman year.

Also flying under the radar because he is a former walk-on, but he was a walk-on because he played one year of HS football and missed a majority of that season with injury.  Was a basketball player, went to one of UW's camps and was so impressive that they offered him as a PWO.

Didn't see him on the Senior Bowl, East-West Shrine, or Hula rosters, but he was invited to the combine.  I watched a few of their games; he looked very athletic and I think he'll test a lot better than people are expecting.  Lots of special teams experience.

IF you were to place a speculative round on such a player, where would that be? I'm personally at a place where I find it hard they take any type of Move or receiving TE with a 1-4 rd pick. And, obviously, I have no idea what they are really thinking. BUT, I see Musgrave; Kraft; and then Sims to an extent as athletic diverse TE's the Packers seem to love. And, for good reason. However, in Deguara, I see a guy who never really has fulfilled their vision for the H-Back role. Hence, why I see a guy like Sinnott and see a natural fit and a fit they'd likely be willing to spend premium capital on. Then again, they might also really like Deguara (kind of how they really seem to like Myers) and re-up him on the cheap?

[Matt Breen]

On 2/1/2024 at 3:17 PM, nate82 said:

He is someone that I have heard mocked to the Bears in the 3rd round if he lasts that long.  I think he goes in the mid to late 2nd round.  If he has a good combine he could jump up to a late 1st or early 2nd round pick. 

I've seen Mitchell popping up at the end of the first round already. The latest Mock Draft from The Athletic had him at #19. I doubt he gets out of the first round unless something weird pops up. People love his upside.

[Matt Breen]

I'm guessing the Packers go OL or DB in round one this year. I'm thinking defensive back. There's a nice group of them and if one falls that's great. 

Quinyon Mitchell looks like he'll be unavailable. He's rocketing up lists. Terrion Arnold looks like he'll be off the board as well when we pick.

Guys we may like who may be available include Cooper DeJean, Kool-Aid McKinstry, and Nate Wiggins. Any of these guys would work. I've seen DeJean linked to the Packers in various mocks. Ennis Rakestraw Jr. is interesting as well - but he is probably more of a round 2 type guy. 

Of course, you never know who will drop.