AAA to MLB Leading Hitters Comparison 2021-24 (aka The Hiura Thread)

[sveumrules]

With Hiura back in MLB and taking over the Misc News thread, I thought now might be as good a time as any to see how Keston's success in AAA over the last few years might translate (or not) to the MLB level.

Methodology is pretty straight forward. I took the 466 AAA batters with at least 500 PAs since 2021 on the FanGraphs leaderboard, sorted them by wRC+, and then clicked over to see what their MLB results were over the same 2021-24 time period. Turns out Keston is one of 34 hitters with at least a 130 wRC+ in AAA over that stretch...

Jake Cave
AAA (684 PAs) 149 wRC+
MLB (732 PAs) 66 wRC+

Brent Rooker
AAA (632 PAs) 149 wRC+
MLB (1,092 PAs) 124 wRC+

Henry Ramos
AAA (621 PAs) 147 wRC+
MLB (141 PAs) 70 wRC+

Matt Davidson
AAA (738 PAs) 146 wRC+
MLB (37 PAs) 54 wRC+

Abraham Almonte
AAA (602 PAs) 145 wRC+
MLB (228 PAs) 88 wRC+

Jonathan Aranda 
AAA (1,015 PAs) 144 wRC+
MLB (242 PAs) 87 wRC+

Josh Lowe
AAA (876 PAs) 143 wRC+
MLB (845 PAs) 114 wRC+

Luke Raley
AAA (586 PAs) 142 wRC+
MLB (795 PAs) 112 wRC+

Franchy Cordero
AAA (821 PAs) 140 wRC+
MLB (482 PAs) 73 wRC+

Jonah Bride
AAA (731 PAs) 139 wRC+
MLB (312 PAs) 58 wRC+

Spencer Horwitz
AAA (945 PAs) 138 wRC+
MLB (142 PAs) 149 wRC+

Coby Mayo
AAA (536 PAs) 138 wRC+
MLB (yet to debut)

Elehuris Montero
AAA (596 PAs) 136 wRC+
MLB (739 PAs) 67 wRC+

Vaughn Grissom
AAA (504 PAs) 135 wRC+
MLB (323 PAs) 78 wRC+

Mark Vientos
AAA (872 PAs) 134 wRC+
MLB (448 PAs) 102 wRC+

Jake McCarthy
AAA (598 PAs) 134 wRC+
MLB (971 PAs) 103 wRC+

Aderlin Rodriguez
AAA (682 PAs) 134 wRC+
MLB (never got called up)

JJ Bleday
AAA (500 PAs) 133 wRC+
MLB (906 PAs) 94 wRC+

Taylor Motter
AAA (888 PAs) 133 wRC+
MLB (117 PAs) 28 wRC+

Keston Hiura
AAA (915 PAs) 133 wRC+
MLB (475 PAs) 89 wRC+ 

Zach Reks
AAA (519 PAs) 133 wRC+
MLB (44 PAs) 19 wRC+

Cooper Hummel
AAA (1,187 PAs) 132 wRC+
MLB (235 PAs) 53 wRC+

Ben Gamel
AAA (562 PAs) 132 wRC+
MLB (846 PAs) 96 wRC+

Ivan Herrera
AAA (667 PAs) 131 wRC+
MLB (258 PAs) 101 wRC+

Nick Gonzales
AAA (580 PAs) 131 wRC+
MLB (335 PAs) 87 wRC+

Michael Stefanic
AAA (1,373 PAs) 131 wRC+
MLB (175 PAs) 74 wRC+

Heston Kjerstad
AAA (595 PAs) 131 wRC+
MLB (84 PAs) 140 wRC+

Joshua Palacios
AAA (578 PAs) 130 wRC+
MLB (370 PAs) 78 wRC+

Justyn-Henry Malloy
AAA (839 PAs) 130 wRC+
MLB (89 PAs) 91 wRC+

Miguel Vargas
AAA (996 PAs) 130 wRC+
MLB (407 PAs) 89 wRC+

Yonathan Perlaza
AAA (543 PAs) 130 wRC+
MLB (currently in KBO)

Eddy Alvarez
AAA (882 PAs) 130 wRC+
MLB (142 PAs) 45 wRC+

Miguel Andujar
AAA (844 PAs) 130 wRC+
MLB (552 PAs) 89 wRC+

Jordan Westburg 
AAA (714 PAs) 130 wRC+
MLB (573 PAs) 120 wRC+

So of the 34 I am counting three legit Orioles prospects, five around average-ish bats (Herrera, Gamel, Bleday, McCarthy, Vientos), two above average bats (Lowe, Raley), one good bat (Rooker) and one star level bat (Horwitz).

That leaves 22 of the 34 very best AAA hitters over the last four years who haven't been able to clear even a lowly 94 wRC+ when called up to MLB.

 

[homer]

Thanks for putting this together. wRC+ is ballpark adjusted?

[sveumrules]

19 minutes ago, homer said:

Thanks for putting this together. wRC+ is ballpark adjusted?

Major League wRC+ is yes, but minor league wRC+ is just league adjusted.

International League OPS has ranged from .750 to .794 the last three years versus .804 to .822 for the PCL.

[rickh150]

2022 MLB wRC+ 115 (also 351 less ABs than middle of order batter Adames wRC+ 109….Adames wRC+ is 103 from 2022-2024)

2023 minors 960 OPS/ 2024 minors 882 OPS

2023-2024 (half season) 41 HRs in 577 AB (1 HR/14 AB)

Just give the guy a chance…

 

 

[rickh150]

That leaves over a third of the hitters hitting what… 115-120 wRC+

[sveumrules]

7 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

2023 minors 960 OPS/ 2024 minors 882 OPS

2023-2024 (half season) 41 HRs in 577 AB (1 HR/14 AB)

Just give the guy a chance…

He's getting a chance, what these numbers say is that guys who have hit similarly to Keston at AAA over the last few years haven't fared so well when getting an MLB opportunity.

Hopefully he'll be an exception like Rooker or Horwitz, but the odds are stacked against him.

[sveumrules]

4 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

That leaves over a third of the hitters hitting what… 115-120 wRC+

The two legit Orioles prospects (Westburg and Kjerstad) plus Rooker and Horwitz are the only players to clear a 115 wRC+ in MLB. That is 4 of 34 or about 12%.

If you include Lowe (114 wRC+) and Raley (112 wRC+) that brings it up to about 18%, so not sure where you are pulling over a third from.

[rickh150]

25 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

The two legit Orioles prospects (Westburg and Kjerstad) plus Rooker and Horwitz are the only players to clear a 115 wRC+ in MLB. That is 4 of 34 or about 12%.

If you include Lowe (114 wRC+) and Raley (112 wRC+) that brings it up to about 18%, so not sure where you are pulling over a third from.

Using your numbers….12 of 34 or about 1/3 are above 94

Averaging the ones above 94…

[sveumrules]

7 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Using your numbers….12 of 34 or about 1/3 are above 94

Averaging the ones above 94…

12 of 34 are at or above 94 wRC+, yes. But that's a long ways away from the 115-120 wRC+ in your original comment.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

So what you're saying is that when the Angels picked him up for nothing they had a 1 in 3 chance of getting a productive MLB hitter? And a better than 25% chance of getting an above average hitter? Because that doesn't sound so bad

[sveumrules]

9 minutes ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

So what you're saying is that when the Angels picked him up for nothing they had a 1 in 3 chance of getting a productive MLB hitter? And a better than 25% chance of getting an above average hitter? Because that doesn't sound so bad

I wouldn't call a 94 wRC+ productive for a guy with no defensive value limited to 1B/DH.

League average for 1B and DH last year was a 111 wRC+ and 106 wRC+, respectively.

Six of the 34 guys on the list (about 18%) cleared that bar - Westburg, Kjerstad, Horwitz, Raley, Lowe and Rooker.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I counted 100 wRC+ or above to get to that above 25% figure. That's an average MLB hitter, no? Getting one for free ain't a bad deal. And a 1 in 4 chance at zero risk is definitely worth the try

[Thurston Fluff]

11 minutes ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

I counted 100 wRC+ or above to get to that above 25% figure. That's an average MLB hitter, no? Getting one for free ain't a bad deal. And a 1 in 4 chance at zero risk is definitely worth the try

It is for a team that has no chance of winning. It's a good spot for him to be. He gets a shot at regular playing time and the Angels might catch lighting in a bottle and get something of value in return over the next year or so. I'm happy for him and pulling for him to succeed but I don't think he's every going to be a cornerstone for a winning team. That's what I thought he had a shot to be coming up. There's nothing wrong with a guy carving out a career playing on subpar teams who hope he gets hot and build some trade value for free. That's about the best he can hope for now IMHO.

[sveumrules]

40 minutes ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

I counted 100 wRC+ or above to get to that above 25% figure. That's an average MLB hitter, no? Getting one for free ain't a bad deal. And a 1 in 4 chance at zero risk is definitely worth the try

Yeah. 100 wRC+ is league average, but Hiura won’t provide any value as a 1B/DH only player unless he is up around a 110 or so at the minimum because the bar for offense is higher at those positions.

[LouisEly]

2023 AAA stats:

Winker: .286/.462/.500; .962 OPS
Hiura: .308/.395/.565; .960 OPS

Seems pretty similar, right?

Winker: 23 BB/ 13 K in 93 PAs; 24.7% BB rate, 14% K rate
Hiura: 31 BB/ 90 K in 367 PAs; 8.4% BB rate, 24.5% K rate

That's why Winker was brought back up at the end of the season and got two PH ABs in the playoffs.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I was starting to look at some of the same things with this discussion but eliminating rising prospects in their first true triple-A season.

Rooker and Horwitz are really the ones who give hope to guys like Hiura and the Brewers’ Brewer.

[rickh150]

34 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

2023 AAA stats:

Winker: .286/.462/.500; .962 OPS
Hiura: .308/.395/.565; .960 OPS

Seems pretty similar, right?

Winker: 23 BB/ 13 K in 93 PAs; 24.7% BB rate, 14% K rate
Hiura: 31 BB/ 90 K in 367 PAs; 8.4% BB rate, 24.5% K rate

That's why Winker was brought back up at the end of the season and got two PH ABs in the playoffs.

Glad it worked well for the Brewers….good decision. 
Got the same argument for the other parade of guys to play 1B/DH last year?

[rickh150]

45 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Yeah. 100 wRC+ is league average, but Hiura won’t provide any value as a 1B/DH only player unless he is up around a 110 or so at the minimum because the bar for offense is higher at those positions.

So a third of your list avg about 115/120. Some were 140s, others 90s.

[sveumrules]

17 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

So a third of your list avg about 115/120. Some were 140s, others 90s.

I guess I'm not following the purpose of averaging results together, especially ones over such a disparate range of outcomes.

Which players will Keston's performance be averaged with this year?

 

[Frisbee Slider]

Batting cleanup, second baseman, #13 Keston Hiura.

(tonight’s Angels/Rangers game)

[rickh150]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

I guess I'm not following the purpose of averaging results together, especially ones over such a disparate range of outcomes.

Which players will Keston's performance be averaged with this year?

 

Why is this odd?  2/3 of those you picked are under 90 and 1/3 are over. I gave the rough average….not manipulating stats.

For Hiura, though, it isn’t quite fair to include his bad years from 4-5 years ago without including his good one. If you are going to go back 3 or 4 years, why not go one further? I mean, he is very different than large majority in that he actually had All Star caliber numbers early and then went down. Leaving out that success is important.

 

[Jopal78]

4 hours ago, Thurston Fluff said:

There's nothing wrong with a guy carving out a career playing on subpar teams who hope he gets hot and build some trade value for free. That's about the best he can hope for now IMHO.

 Hiura would be so lucky

[rickh150]

12 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

 Hiura would be so lucky

Right….

[KeithStone53151]

You're painting with broad brush strokes here. I understand why, trying to get a bigger sample of comparable players statistically. But the only thing similar about any of these players is their production. Also, consider that Hiura has to make it as an undersized RH hitting 1b/DH, so comparable players statistically have low odds of producing at league average...and Hiura really has to produce a fair amount higher to be a viable big leaguer. With all that working against him, Hiura not only got a job...but forced his way up to MLB. Plenty of players smack AAA but don't get called to MLB because the analysis shows it's unlikely they'll hit MLB pitchers despite hitting AAA pitchers. Looking at the broad brush stroke statistics, the odds are certainly stacked against him. But there's a reason he keeps getting chances. Other teams see the same tools and ability that don't exist in a significant majority of the players you've listed above.

[homer]

54 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

You're painting with broad brush strokes here. I understand why, trying to get a bigger sample of comparable players statistically. But the only thing similar about any of these players is their production. Also, consider that Hiura has to make it as an undersized RH hitting 1b/DH, so comparable players statistically have low odds of producing at league average...and Hiura really has to produce a fair amount higher to be a viable big leaguer. With all that working against him, Hiura not only got a job...but forced his way up to MLB. Plenty of players smack AAA but don't get called to MLB because the analysis shows it's unlikely they'll hit MLB pitchers despite hitting AAA pitchers. Looking at the broad brush stroke statistics, the odds are certainly stacked against him. But there's a reason he keeps getting chances. Other teams see the same tools and ability that don't exist in a significant majority of the players you've listed above.

Yes he keeps getting minor league deals because it's low risk with potentially high reward. Like signing a left handed bullpen guy that throws 100mph but his K: BB is like 1:1. You hope they figure it out at some point. But there's also a point where the guy gets ample opportunity and can't figure it out.