What is an ideal batting order?

[formerlybis]

I'll admit to being a bit flummoxed with Mr. Black being slotted as a 3-hitter lately, but that raised the question for me about what the modern analytics might say.

My understanding (from the pre-analytics days) was that you wanted a high OBP lead-off hitter with speed. #2 would be a good contact hitter that could advance the runner with productive outs, if necessary. #3 is probably your best overall hitter, ideally with a combo of average and some power, #4 and #5 are thumpers. #6-8 are mysteries to me, but I always liked another speedy contact hitter at 9 - a poor-man's leadoff guy.  

Following this (and knowing Yelich is done), I think I'd go Turang at 1, probably Contreras 2, Chourio 3, Adames 4, Hoskins 5, and Ortiz at 9. I didn't look at righty-lefty, though

This board has a lot of knowledgeable folks - is my thinking outdated? What are the other modern considerations?  

[liveforoctober]

I remember thinking Counsell did the R/L/R/L thing more than anyone I ever remembered ... and now I'm convinced Murphy does it more. I have no stats to back that up.

I get it .. all things equal I'd rather not give the opposing team the opportunity to bring in a lefty in an inning and face 3 straight lefties against us, etc... but if Contreras, Chourio, and Adames are your 3 best hitters I would like them hitting 2, 3, 4 please. ESPECIALLY when the lefty option to break up that trio in the 3 or 4 spot is Bauers or Frelick or something.

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, formerlybis said:

I'll admit to being a bit flummoxed with Mr. Black being slotted as a 3-hitter lately, but that raised the question for me about what the modern analytics might say.

My understanding (from the pre-analytics days) was that you wanted a high OBP lead-off hitter with speed. #2 would be a good contact hitter that could advance the runner with productive outs, if necessary. #3 is probably your best overall hitter, ideally with a combo of average and some power, #4 and #5 are thumpers. #6-8 are mysteries to me, but I always liked another speedy contact hitter at 9 - a poor-man's leadoff guy.  

Following this (and knowing Yelich is done), I think I'd go Turang at 1, probably Contreras 2, Chourio 3, Adames 4, Hoskins 5, and Ortiz at 9. I didn't look at righty-lefty, though

This board has a lot of knowledgeable folks - is my thinking outdated? What are the other modern considerations?  

Looking at how the Brewers have performed post-ASB I think their ideal lineup would be something like this...

Chourio (101 PA | 178 wRC+)
Contreras (104 PA | 157 wRC+)
Mitchell (76 PA | 98 wRC+)
Adames (101 PA | 132 wRC+)
Hoskins (87 PA | 130 wRC+)
Sanchez (36 PA | 167 wRC+)
Frelick (81 PA | 45 wRC+)
Ortiz (94 PA | 65 wRC+)
Turang (89 PA | 28 wRC+)

Chourio is fast and the best player on the team give him the most PAs, Contreras is the best all around hitter, Mitchell is the best lefty at the moment so he gets third to break up all the righties, Adames/Hoskins are your best regular run producers, El Gary fits the same mold in a smaller sample, after that its the struggle bunch so just went LRL to split the lefties.

Monasterio (21 PA | 147 wRC+) and Haase (20 PA | 169 wRC+) have both performed the small handful of times their names have been called, I'd be calling Andruw a little more often for sure given recent performance of Joey/Brice, keep Sanchez DH only and use Haase behind the dish for Contreras off days. Bauers (52 PA | 88 wRC+) has been Bauers.

Zooming out a bit here is the league average wRC+ at each batting order spot for each of 2022, 2023 and 2024 so far (with the Brewers wRC+ and league rank this year in parentheses at the end)...

Batting 1st
103, 111, 106 (90 | 22nd)

Batting 2nd
115, 114, 114 (107 | 18th)

Batting 3rd
116, 111, 118 (139 | 7th)

Batting 4th
109, 108, 106 (125 | 6th)

Batting 5th
98, 103, 103 (93 | 22nd)

Batting 6th
96, 94, 93 (80 | 23rd)

Batting 7th
90, 89, 95 (119 | 3rd)

Batting 8th
87, 86, 84 (107 | 6th)

Batting 9th
81, 81, 75 (99 | 1st)

So leadoff, #5 and #6 have been the weak spots this year for the Brewers. Number two has been below average by lineup position but still above average overall. #3, #4 and the bottom three spots have been where most of their big gains have come from.

[adambr2]

Of today's starters:

1) Chourio 

2) Ortiz

3) Mitchell 

4) Contreras

5) Adames 

6) Hoskins

7) Turang 

8) Black 

9) Frelick 

 

Chourio is our best hitter and should get the most ABs. I don't understand why Ortiz can't sniff the top of the order. He has some power, some speed. He hit well all year, got hurt, went into a big slump after returning and is hitting again. I don't care for Mitchell a ton at #3, it was just to sandwich him in between righties, there isn't a great spot from them. After that it's pretty easy. Turang, Black for now, and certainly Frelick belong in spots that get the least ABs. 

 

[torts]

Whatever order scores more runs than the other team

[Lathund]

Modern batting order wisdom is a bit different from the traditional. Most of which comes from two things; Starting to correctly value not making outs, and the value of more plate appearances. Meaning that the speedster and slap hitter 1-2 combo at the top of the order are no longer a thing. Which isn't to say that you don't want those traits in your 1-2 hitter, just that it's secondary to being a productive overall hitter. 

And by far the biggest realization of the simulation age of lineup construction is that it matters very, very little. Sure, batting the pitcher leadoff and your best hitter 9th will have a fairly big impact. But the difference between the optimal lineup and any remotely sensible one, is miniscule. It's a handful of runs per *season*. So put your best hitters near the top of the lineup, try to alternate L-R somewhat, and you're most of the way there. Like simply sorting the lineup by descending order of OPS or OBP is fine. 

But some of the more specific findings; 3rd isn't the optimal spot to put your best overall hitter, mainly for one simple reason; It's the spot that comes up with the bases empty and 2 outs most often. So 2nd is the new 3rd; best overall hitter hits 2nd. Your next two best hitters should hit 1st and 4th; take the better OBP guy and bat him leadoff, the better power hitter 4th. Your next two best hitters are 3rd (Allrounder) and 5th (This is where the Chris Carter or Rhys Hoskins types go). Then just more or less use 6-9 to alternate handedness and roughly descending order of batting prowess. There's some value in putting a good OBP guy 9th, for similar reasons to why batting the pitcher 8th and not 9th made sense, as a "second leadoff" type thing, setting up the top of the order. 

 

[formerlybis]

4 hours ago, Lathund said:

Modern batting order wisdom is a bit different from the traditional. Most of which comes from two things; Starting to correctly value not making outs, and the value of more plate appearances. Meaning that the speedster and slap hitter 1-2 combo at the top of the order are no longer a thing. Which isn't to say that you don't want those traits in your 1-2 hitter, just that it's secondary to being a productive overall hitter. 

And by far the biggest realization of the simulation age of lineup construction is that it matters very, very little. Sure, batting the pitcher leadoff and your best hitter 9th will have a fairly big impact. But the difference between the optimal lineup and any remotely sensible one, is miniscule. It's a handful of runs per *season*. So put your best hitters near the top of the lineup, try to alternate L-R somewhat, and you're most of the way there. Like simply sorting the lineup by descending order of OPS or OBP is fine. 

But some of the more specific findings; 3rd isn't the optimal spot to put your best overall hitter, mainly for one simple reason; It's the spot that comes up with the bases empty and 2 outs most often. So 2nd is the new 3rd; best overall hitter hits 2nd. Your next two best hitters should hit 1st and 4th; take the better OBP guy and bat him leadoff, the better power hitter 4th. Your next two best hitters are 3rd (Allrounder) and 5th (This is where the Chris Carter or Rhys Hoskins types go). Then just more or less use 6-9 to alternate handedness and roughly descending order of batting prowess. There's some value in putting a good OBP guy 9th, for similar reasons to why batting the pitcher 8th and not 9th made sense, as a "second leadoff" type thing, setting up the top of the order. 

 

Thanks. I sort of already had an inkling that order was over valued in the eyes of the casual fan - the leadoff hitter is only guaranteed to actually lead off once, for example, so the logic of the following batters also only applies that one time (maybe) too. I take from this that batting Black third might only be a minor mis-ordering transgression, and the idea of getting him better pitches to hit with thumpers behind him has merit.

I also think there’s a discussion to be had on OBP vs OPS. I like higher OBP guys batting before higher OPS guys, for fairly obvious reasons.

[treego14]

The one Pat Murphy draws up!

In Papa Murphy, I trust!

[82brewcrew82]

Look at the box scores around the league and that will tell you everything you need to know.  There is no archetype any more, particularly when it comes to lead off hitters.  The notions articulated in the OP are antiquated, and for good reason.  There must be something in the analytics that says alternating handedness is an advantage.  I agree with those that have said your best hitters get the most ABs.  That should be the guiding principal.

 

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

RHP

Turang 2B

Chourio LF

Black DH

Contreras C

Adames SS

Mitchell CF

Hoskins/Bauers 1B

Frelick/Bauers RF

Ortiz 3B

 

LHP

Ortiz 3B

Chourio LF

Mitchell CF

Contreras DH

Adames SS

Hoskins 1B

Sanchez C

Frelick RF

Turang 2B