A Moonshot: The Brewers Should Sign Alex Bregman This Winter

[Matthew Trueblood]

The two-time All-Star might not find the market he's hoping for this winter, and he's a uniquely excellent fit for this team.

Image courtesy of © Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

It sounds faintly laughable, but don't laugh: the Milwaukee Brewers would be a sensational fit for free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman this winter. The erstwhile Astro is due to become a free agent for the first time, and in everything from the position he plays to his offensive profile, he suits this organization beautifully.

Heading into the offseason after a heartbreaking playoff loss, the Crew's sights should be set on solidifying their hold on the NL Central for the next half-decade. They've already run the place for about that long, however imperfect their dominance has been, but they have every chance to sustain that state of affairs. Jackson Chourio is a magnificent cornerstone for any franchise. The trades of Josh Hader (William Contreras and Joel Payamps, eventually, plus Robert Gasser) and Corbin Burnes (Joey Ortiz and DL Hall) have netted them two controllable, sturdy position players with All-Star upside, plus ancillary depth. They figure to make a similar move this winter with Devin Williams, backfilling the bullpen with Payamps, Trevor Megill, and upcoming rookie sensations Jacob Misiorowski and Craig Yoho, and Williams could net them yet another piece for a puzzle that isn't missing many pieces, anyway.

Holding over a pick they'll get for not signing Chris Levonas this summer, receiving their usual compensatory pick according to the Collective Bargaining Agreement, and getting another when Willy Adames departs as a high-dollar free agent, the Crew would lose less than almost any other potential suitor in terms of draft capital by signing Bregman. Either way, they'll amass talent as well as teams a half-dozen slots higher than them on next July's Draft board, so their farm system figures to remain fecund, even after their slew of graduations over the last two years.

The one thing the team really needs, though, is a consistent, durable offensive contributor. They had hoped that would be Rhys Hoskins, and he might return to form in 2025, but he wasn't the thunderous presence they might have hoped for in 2024. With Adames on the way out, a vacancy is opening up on the infield. Brock Wilken, last year's first-round pick, is not ready to fill it, and Tyler Black, Sal Frelick, and Oliver Dunn are all various flavors of underwhelming as potential holders-down of the hot corner. Ortiz will slide to short in Adames's stead, or to second if Turang takes short, so the clear area of need is at third.

Why not just re-sign Adames, instead? Well, firstly, Adames's track record is less consistent than Bregman's, and his skill set is inherently more volatile. Secondly, though, Adames is a shortstop. He's unlikely to be happy about sliding down the defensive spectrum even in a new home, but it's hard to imagine negotiating a reunion with him that includes the proviso of demoting him to third. Yet, he had a rough season afield in 2024, and Ortiz is markedly better, in addition to being younger.

Specifically, Bregman would be a brilliant addition to this team, because he does all the things they already prize on offense. Last year was the first time his walk rate sagged over a full season, but even with that small crack in the armor, he looks to have considerable staying power as a productive hitter. He had his highest hard-hit rate since 2019 last year, and his strikeout rate is perennially one of the lowest in the league. He doesn't expand the strike zone, and you can't beat him often within it.

The 25-homer power he's shown over the last three years probably wouldn't survive the move to Milwaukee, where the corners are deep. He hits line drives, though, and would get plenty of doubles down the line even at Miller Park, in addition to some extra homers in the friendlier areas from gap to gap. He uses the opposite field more often than most hitters, but not most Brewers hitters: his profile in that regard is very similar to those of William Contreras and Jackson Chourio.

Nor should it be lost on anyone that Bregman, who will turn 31 just after Opening Day next year, already has six seasons with at least 626 plate appearances under his belt--not to mention his 434 career postseason plate appearances, with a .789 OPS. He's durable, available, and a primetime playoff performer, and at this stage of their battle with the ghosts of Octobers past, the team could probably use a swaggering two-time World Series champion who isn't afraid of those ghosts.

This is a far-fetched notion. It's not the way the Brewers usually do business, and there are valid, valuable reasons for that. However, there's a window open here. The team receives excellent fan support, including and especially in-person attendance, which makes them a bit less exposed to the pain of the TV rights crash in which they, too, will be entangled this winter. They could use that problem as cover for not spending money, but they have money coming off their books, and reinvesting and expanding the payroll of this team would be the right thing to do, at this juncture. A regional dynasty and a real push to end the franchise's title drought are possible. Bregman would be a good way to amplify that possibility, and it need not come at the expense of other moves that would give the team a chance to be good well past next season.

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[wiguy94]

Bregman has some major red flags that I'd feel way more comfortable steering clear from.

1. His walk rate absolutely cratered last year. His lowest BB-rate since the 2017 season was 11.0% in 2021. This year it was 6.9%. 

2. He went from a huge plus hitter against FB to a below average hitter against FB. His run value against FB was +11 in 2022 and +11 in 2023. In 2024 it was -2 with a .343 xwOBA which is 40 points lower than any non-2020 season outside of his rookie year.

Maybe he was playing through an injury this year or something but wrong side of 30, cratering BB-rate, and decline in quality against FB feels like a red flag for anything more than a short-term deal.

[DuWayne Steurer]

no.

[jay87shot]

If we are going to pay someone big I'd rather just spend money on a starter like Snell, Flaherty, or even Shane Bieber.

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, jay87shot said:

If we are going to pay someone big I'd rather just spend money on a starter like Snell, Flaherty, or even Shane Bieber.

Well...Snell won't be on the market, but if the Brewers are going to spend money, I wouldn't spend it on any of those guys. We find pitchers, we work with them, and we have a great staff year after year. 

 

Hell, if we're going to jump into the FA pool, just dive right into the deep end and give Soto 12/500M?

 

Get a HOF talent in the prime, one of the top 3-4 hitters in the game, and the ideal hitter to hit between Yelich and Chourio!

I'm being as serious as I can be. Bregman is going to cost you probably what Matt Chapman cost plus a couple of years and a couple million per year since he's been better, been a winner, he's younger. So 8/200. You'll probably get lucky to get 6 WAR out of the last 4 years of that deal and you're just as likely to DFA him and eat 80M to plug in Pratt, Wilken, Made, whoever.

I'd rather get stupid and just sacrifice the 2040s. Soto 12-500, 100M deferred, 10M from 2040-2050, give him an option 6 years in and 280 in. 

Get the modern-day Barry Bonds in the lineup with Chourio and you know he'll be in his prime or damn near it for that whole deal!

 

I have absolutely zero hope that'll happen, but if we're GOING to spend stupid money(and Bregman is stupid money for our market) lets spend it in a way that we're not just giving a check to a player who's not going to be productive for half of it?

1-Yelich(DH) 2- Chourio(RF) 3- Soto(LF) 4- Contreras(C) 5- Mitchell(CF) 6-Frelick(3B) 7- Hoskins(1B), 8- Turang(SS/2B), 9- Ortiz(SS/2B)
Black, Bauers, Perkins, Collins, Haase

Rotation Woodruff, Meyers, Civale, Ashby, Hall, Peralta
BP-Megill, Uribe, Mears, Hudson, Koenig, Yoho

 

That's without Misi, Henderson, any wild jumps like Boeve, Wilken and his 17AA HRs despite a pitch to the fact, Pratt, one of the 7 or 8 pitchers who will invariably come up, pitch great and add a couple MPH and refine their change, Payamps, Peguero(who could both be in there), Quero.

There ya go. And how much is that team? 150? No Williams, Milner, Montas, 

 

LOL...I'm not mocking Bergman, I'm really not. He DOES fit perfectly and I'm not worried about his walk rate, his exit velo has been great(or at least really good). But that fit is for a year, maybe two. And since we're going big, lets go Reggie White 1992 Packers big!

 

Now....we just need Jimmy and Dee to decide they want to be in the Baseball game, throw in 500M and dedicate themselves to building a winner in Milwaukee without blowing up the future like the Bucks have!

Or just keep plugging along in Brewers fashion, develop Made into a young Arod, Pratt into a young Gunnar, Quero into Yaddy(who hits more early on), Mis into deGrom(but we keep him healthy). 

 

Seriously, we sign someone like Polanco, the fanbase moans, he comes in, puts up a 760 OPS at 3B, plays poor defense...or you get a guy like Iglesias, he'll probably hit .280/.330/.340, play outstanding defense, but you can make a move at the deadline. All in, shy of someone with billions like the Haslem's joining the best case is probably a Moncada or Black+Payamps for Suarez OR...a bit of an unlikely idea, if a team outside of LAD signs Willy, take their leftovers. If Philly for example wants to move Trea back to 2B, Devin Williams+ for Alec Bohm(they need relievers and a CF, so maybe Black here also, or Payamps or Peguero). Bryson Stott would be a good option as well, though for much less. 

Brandon Lowe. Hell, Maybe you take Trevor Story+60M in a salary dump and hope he's recovered. He's still a guy worth having for 5-6M a year. You give up again, a reliever or two. 

If it's the other favorites, maybe we can pull off a bigger trade with the Red Sox. Williams+

 

 

The signing works perfectly on MLB24, but...it just doesn't fit with the Brewers. We need a 2-3 year bridge(if that). And you'd be getting that but paying for ~8 years. 

But, it's fun to think of the lineup with him. 

 

[JohnBriggs12]

I think the Brewers are serious about moving Frelick to 3B.  With Yelich return and Mitchell healthy, they'll want all 3 in lineup vs. RHP.  They could have interest in Urshela to see considerable time at 3B too as a guy in their price range with some value.

[GantnerRules]

Too many downsides to Bregman, as others have noted. And please, not Urshela - he has some defensive value, but way too many empty at-bats. 

My alternative: Brewers have their guys for 2nd and 3rd (not easy to find stellar defensive gems for 3rd base!), so leave Turang and Ortiz in place and find a FA shortstop. One possibility is Ha-seong Kim. Obviously he's coming off shoulder surgery, so this assumes he will be physically sound, but he could be a good fit for the infield. Doesn't have the power of Adames, but very few SS candidates do. Unfortunately, he just signed a contract with Boras, so he won't come cheap. 

That leaves 1B as the one hole to fill. Again. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

24 minutes ago, GantnerRules said:

Too many downsides to Bregman, as others have noted. And please, not Urshela - he has some defensive value, but way too many empty at-bats. 

My alternative: Brewers have their guys for 2nd and 3rd (not easy to find stellar defensive gems for 3rd base!), so leave Turang and Ortiz in place and find a FA shortstop. One possibility is Ha-seong Kim. Obviously he's coming off shoulder surgery, so this assumes he will be physically sound, but he could be a good fit for the infield. Doesn't have the power of Adames, but very few SS candidates do. Unfortunately, he just signed a contract with Boras, so he won't come cheap. 

That leaves 1B as the one hole to fill. Again. 

I think Hoskins is back next season so first base is likely spoken for.

[tmwiese55]

I'd say only if he ends up having to take the 1-3 year (hoskins, snell, chapman) prove it type deal with the opt out options for him. Hope you get a great year out of him, let him sign elsewhere next year.   If he's not available on that type of deal so be it, let someone else eat the back end of a bad contract.