Contreras Trade

[Scooterfletcher]

Is now the time to maximize value on a trade for Contreras?   Haase sure looked good when given a chance and Quero is on the doorstep assuming his health is looking good.  William I’m guessing has massive value on the trade market and we should be able to be quite strong at catcher anyway.   For the right package, should we float his name out there?

[sveumrules]

Contreras has so much surplus value that he'd be pretty much impossible to get adequate compensation back for at this point.

Quick and dirty he projects for about 15 WAR over the next three years for something like $40M in Arby's salaries which puts his surplus value over $100M for me.

Other problems are there is still a degree of uncertainty around how Quero will return from the shoulder and the Brewers have zero catching depth beyond that. Next guy that looks like he could maybe catch 100 games in an MLB season at some point is Luis Corobo down in the DSL.

[TURBO]

Nope.  We have no guarantees with Quero.  I think it would be a bad idea to roll the dice.  We have Contreras for a few more years, no need to do anything just yet.

[Scooterfletcher]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Contreras has so much surplus value that he'd be pretty much impossible to get adequate compensation back for at this point.

Quick and dirty he projects for about 15 WAR over the next three years for something like $40M in Arby's salaries which puts his surplus value over $100M for me.

Other problems are there is still a degree of uncertainty around how Quero will return from the shoulder and the Brewers have zero catching depth beyond that. Next guy that looks like he could catch 100 games in an MLB season is Luis Corobo down in the DSL.

Casas Mayer and Giolito for Contreras Civale and Hoskins would you say no to?

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, Scooterfletcher said:

Casas Mayer and Giolito for Contreras Civale and Hoskins would you say no to?

In a heartbeat.

I don't value Casas much as a guy who is already locked into DH/1B at age 25. He's so slow and bad in the field that he needs to put up a 125 wRC+ to approach two WAR.

Giolito is washed, at least Civale and Hoskins are still useful. I wouldn't want to include a dead money guy like Rhys in a deal like this anyway, just trade Contreras solo for the best possible return.

If I'm sending out three years of Contreras to the Red Sox I'd probably need Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer as co-headliners. Don't really like the BOS pitching prospects or young MLB arms all that much but would probably be looking at a couple guys like Justin Slaten (55 IP of 69 ERA- | 63 FIP- in his MLB debut last year), Luis Perales (big arm just had TJ), Jedixson Paez (96 IP of 3.17 ERA/FIP in A/A+ this year), or Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (89 IP of 2.91 ERA | 3.56 FIP in A/A+ this year) to round out the package.

[TURBO]

4 hours ago, Scooterfletcher said:

Casas Mayer and Giolito for Contreras Civale and Hoskins would you say no to?

Dude...

[brewcrewdue80]

It's too early to talk trade of Contreras. Quero needs to instill confidence in him post injury.  You also don't want to remove his bat from the lineup after losing Adames.  

[wntrtxn21]

On 1/3/2025 at 2:32 PM, Scooterfletcher said:

Casas Mayer and Giolito for Contreras Civale and Hoskins would you say no to?

It would go down as one of the stupidest trades in MLB history. 

[Lloyd330]

If Boston would offer ( which they would never ) Anthony, Campbell, Bello for Contreras, I would do that. 

Then see if the Giants would offer Eldridge for Freddy. 

[nate82]

1 hour ago, Lloyd330 said:

Then see if the Giants would offer Eldridge for Freddy. 

They wouldn’t.  Eldridge is untouchable unless you want to give up Chourio.  The Giants told the White Sox and Astros no during their trade talks for Tucker and Crochett.  There is no way they would trade him for Peralta.

[Klantz27]

Eldridge for peralta this proposed red sox trade 😂 what a bunch of ridiculous proposals🤣 use quero as a trade chip and extend contreras to a 10 year deal

[nate82]

38 minutes ago, Klantz27 said:

use quero as a trade chip and extend contreras to a 10 year deal

I don't believe this will happen as I believe the Brewers haven't reached out to Contreras on any type of a deal currently. 

[Klantz27]

10 hours ago, nate82 said:

I don't believe this will happen as I believe the Brewers haven't reached out to Contreras on any type of a deal currently. 

Oh absolutely i guarantee it won't happen but it should marks a cheap ass owner tho

[TURBO]

47 minutes ago, Klantz27 said:

Oh absolutely i guarantee it won't happen but it should marks a cheap ass owner tho

 

[brewcrewdue80]

16 hours ago, Klantz27 said:

Eldridge for peralta this proposed red sox trade 😂 what a bunch of ridiculous proposals🤣 use quero as a trade chip and extend contreras to a 10 year deal

Remember the knock on Contreras was his defense behind the plate and throwing out runners was below average. He's a slow runner already. I don't think he has a long career ahead of him. The bat would need to carry him as a DH/1b. A long term extension has Chris Davis history written on it again.

[jay87shot]

I would make no sense this year to trade William, if Quero has a solid year the question can be brought up next offseason but at no point does trading Contreras this year make much sense. 

[wntrtxn21]

7 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Remember the knock on Contreras was his defense behind the plate and throwing out runners was below average. He's a slow runner already. I don't think he has a long career ahead of him. The bat would need to carry him as a DH/1b. A long term extension has Chris Davis history written on it again.

I don't think you could be more wrong. The knock on Contreras BEFORE he came to Milwaukee was his defense. Since he's been with Milwaukee he has become one of the best catchers in baseball and a very intregal part of the Brewers offense and defense. While I can't ever see a 10 year extension, I see him continuing to be one of the very best for years. 

[Outlander]

The same thing was said about Lucroy, it doesn't end well for catchers. Conteras could be one of the exceptions but the Brewers shouldn't be the one taking that risk. The brewers have him through age 29 which is great, One of the large markets can pay him for his declining years. Would not be interested in trading him right now.

[wallus]

Contreras doesn't want an extension and we shouldn't give him one. Win win

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, Outlander said:

The same thing was said about Lucroy, it doesn't end well for catchers. Conteras could be one of the exceptions but the Brewers shouldn't be the one taking that risk. The brewers have him through age 29 which is great, One of the large markets can pay him for his declining years. Would not be interested in trading him right now.

Yup. Mauer was done behind the plate at 30, Posey retired at 34, Lucroy’s last good year was at 30, Russell Martin’s last big year was age 33, Brian McCann was done after 33, Yaz Grandal fell of after 32, Posada made it to 35 before the cliff, but that was almost 20 years ago now, Realmuto has fallen off hard since 31.

He Who Shall Not Be Named probably had the best longevity of any modern catcher and his last big year was at age 33 before closing it out with a diminished but still solid run from age 34 to 38.

Enjoy the next year or two of Contreras, trade him for a haul, and let someone else roll the dice on making him the first $200M catcher.

[Fear The Chorizo]

If Quero has a solid AAA season and proves to be ready to be the everyday catcher in Milwaukee in 2026, the Brewers can then explore trading Contreras next offseason, shifting him to the primary DH and being a damn solid option as the ~30% backup catcher, or some combination of both.

 

nothing to explore this offseason besides getting him signed via arbitration and letting him know he'll be catching ~120 games for the Brewers this coming season

[DR28]

3 hours ago, wallus said:

Contreras doesn't want an extension and we shouldn't give him one. Win win

He has come out and said that? 

[DR28]

Give Contreras the contract we offered to Adames this winter, does he sign it?

[wallus]

1 hour ago, DR28 said:

He has come out and said that? 

Yes

[DR28]

16 hours ago, wallus said:

Yes

Do you have link or quote?