As Brewers Open Spring Training, Oliver Dunn Still Has an Open Lane

[Matthew Trueblood]

Things can still change. There are free agents on the market and money in the coffers. Right now, though, the Brewers look poised to give a second look to a high-ceiling lefty bat.

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Good swing decisions are the top priority for the Milwaukee Brewers, and that mentality has served them extraordinarily well over the last several seasons. They tend to overachieve at the plate, not only by hitting so well in high-leverage situations but by grinding their way on base in a way you couldn't forecast, if you just sat down and watched them play for a day or two. Lots of Brewers hitters have excellent approaches at the plate, and that has huge value.

In far shorter supply, of course, is power. The Crew finished 16th in MLB in home runs last season, and then watched their leading home-run hitter depart via free agency. Rhys Hoskins was second on the team in dingers, and the only player other than Willy Adames to hit more than 21 of them—and Hoskins will turn 32 on St. Patrick's Day, so there's no guarantee that he will match that production in 2025, either. I expect a big power season from Jackson Chourio, but projection systems are more dour, and even if you mentally chalk up 65 total homers for Chourio and William Contreras, the specter of a shortfall throughout the rest of the lineup looms.

That's why Oliver Dunn is so important. Last year's spring training darling cracked the Opening Day roster because of an injury, but couldn't hold the job, batting just .221/.282/.316 in 104 plate appearances. He struck out 40 times in that brief stint, failed to find the power his swing promised, and then went down with a back strain that effectively ended his season. His very brief stint in the Dominican Winter League did nothing to restore anyone's faltering confidence, either.

Yet, there's no denying what Dunn has the potential to do. Unlike several Brewers whose lack of high-end swing speed sets a hard, low ceiling on their power projection, Dunn has it in him to hit homers in bunches—if he can make enough contact and start to lift the ball more consistently. He's slugged better than .500 in the minor leagues in three straight seasons and was over .600 in the offense-friendly Arizona Fall League in 2023. More concretely, in his short time in the majors last year, he showed bat speed readily comparable to those of the Brewers' other two most promising bat speed dudes: Contreras and Garrett Mitchell.

These distributions hint at the problem for Dunn, which is that he hasn't yet shown the same feel for varying and modulating his swing that Contreras and Mitchell have. When you consistently swing faster than 75 miles per hour, though, you're going to generate some hard contact when you get the barrel to the ball. 

That doesn't guarantee that you'll hit it hard in the air, which is the name of the modern game. Dunn has to reduce his strikeout rate, accept his walks, and lift his hardest-hit balls better in order to be a useful regular in the majors, and that's a tall triple order. He might not be able to fill it, which is why the team traded for Caleb Durbin (a player with nothing like this kind of bat speed but plenty of the other things the team prizes, like patience, a feel for contact, and speed) and have retained Andruw Monasterio this winter. Dunn could easily end up with Triple-A Nashville to open the season.

If things break right, however, he could also be a vital contributor to this team. His profile, if he gets right, figures to be similar to that of Jake Bauers. Either player, on the higher end of their spectrum of possible outcomes, could be a slugging threat in the bottom third of the batting order, but whereas playing Bauers means losing the power threat of Hoskins or taking up one of the outfield slots that could go to superior overall players Chourio, Sal Frelick, or Christian Yelich, playing Dunn comes with a comparatively minimal opportunity cost.

With free agents like Brandon Drury and Paul DeJong still out there and various trade possibilities lurking below the horizon, Dunn is by no means locked into that role. It sure looks like he'll get a chance to demonstrate the adjustments he needed last year this spring, though. That could be a boon for the Brewers.

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[Terry]

I really liked Drury as a bounce back candidate, but he already signed a minor league deal with White Sox.

[long ball]

I think Jack and Spencer have discussed Dunn on the podcast with a little bit of optimism, but I just can’t see them not adding a veteran infielder by opening day. Dejong, Iglesias, and Rodgers are really the only guys left out there though. 

[Harold Hutchison]

Really think the Crew's best offensive option at third would be Tyler Black, but the team won't move him there, but the team seems more inclined to see him as a backup 1B/DH behind Hoskins/Yelich, and maybe some playing time in left field to give Chourio time off.

I'm not optimistic about Dunn's production at the MLB level in 2025. He needs a full year in Triple-A to deal with his high K rate and to fix his swing, and to be honest, I think Mike Boeve is a better prospect and should get the playing time there.

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, Harold Hutchison said:

Really think the Crew's best offensive option at third would be Tyler Black, but the team won't move him there, but the team seems more inclined to see him as a backup 1B/DH behind Hoskins/Yelich, and maybe some playing time in left field to give Chourio time off.

I'm not optimistic about Dunn's production at the MLB level in 2025. He needs a full year in Triple-A to deal with his high K rate and to fix his swing, and to be honest, I think Mike Boeve is a better prospect and should get the playing time there.

I also prefer the idea of Dunn getting regular time in Nashville. But with Boeve probably ready for a bump there, it makes for an interesting dynamic at 3B in AAA.

Provided no one else is acquired Durbin looks like the frontrunner to me.

[jesusoftheapes]

5 hours ago, long ball said:

I think Jack and Spencer have discussed Dunn on the podcast with a little bit of optimism, but I just can’t see them not adding a veteran infielder by opening day. Dejong, Iglesias, and Rodgers are really the only guys left out there though. 

I think the Brewers have been preparing for Adames to leave for a long time and the people they want infield are already here.   Caleb Durbin is a very good player who is going to be an instant fan favorite.  While few in media stories can describe him as he plays he fits in our system like a glove.    I do not see what is available out there as better than what we currently have.   Shopping for the leftovers when you have your own homegrown future Stars you go with the youth.   2024 they stopped plugging holes and it gave us the best season in recent memory.   I believe in this Crew and think we have more than enough to overcome losing Adames.       Dunn is will have to live up to his ability to make that all up in house for sure.   I am still betting Sal brings more power to 2025 than previous seasons I also think Blake will have more potent bat power in 2025.    The biggest improvement from 24' to 25' is Jackson Chourio.  Chourio should be amazing every season from here on out.   Each year should prove more and more impressive as he gets older and the sky's the limit for Chourio.     He could lead the NL in home runs for all we know.    Garrett Mitchell is also going to have a big year if he is over the injury bug.       He seems destined for .300+ Averages and many big hits as long as he stays on field.     Joey O also showed he can hit near .300 as he did through the beginning of the 2024 season before he hurt himself.    

 

I do not like any of the people you named. They are not better than what we already have.   IF the first month goes by and this team seems like it needs a bat then you make a move but for now I believe this team is pretty well built.     It does not need to window shop because it sells the best stuff.   

[jesusoftheapes]

Dunn was great in AAA for his last franchise before we snagged him.  He was a pro playing semi pro ball.   His 2024 was a mess and cannot be a judge of what he can do here if he is feeling it and healthy.    Dunn is a nice batter with power and he plays a pretty good 3rd with a rocket right arm.     Dunn solves problems if the Brewers move Ortiz to 2nd and Turang to Shortstop.    However Ortiz proved to be a much better 3rd last season than anyone thought he could be.  So if they move Turang keeping him at 3 might not be a bad choice .    However a Durbin 2nd base would not be a bad choice because Caleb Durbin gets on base!   I think he can set up a lot of runs for this team is he gets starting work.    He may not be powershot man but he will put himself in scoring position a lot if the put him on 2nd.   Dunn can rotate into the lineup and be a batter when needed but he thrives on playing himself into rhythm so keeping him in the lineup is probably the best way to get the most out of Dunn.   Dunn can be amazing and put up 20+ home runs through a season of shared starts but could be even more with a every night starting job at Hot Corner.      

The best thing about the 2025 Brewers roster is the fact they have answers at every position.   From 1st to pitching they have many options to fill holes and waiting to see if the guys  we built work out seems like the right move for the Brewers in 2025 .  The market stinks.   The players available stink at the MLB level . the prospects you would want to bring in cost us equal prospects to acquire and we have no reason to offload anymore talent.   The Brewers built something here through the Farms.   They have a TON of young talent who is ready to show up.    Stick stay and make it pay and I think this 2025 Crew can outperform the 2024 team with a bit of health and luck on our side.   

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, jesusoftheapes said:

Dunn was great in AAA for his last franchise before we snagged him.    

 Before being acquired Dunn only played in seven games at the AAA level. I share your optimism regarding Durbin, though.

[Snoebird]

16 hours ago, Harold Hutchison said:

Really think the Crew's best offensive option at third would be Tyler Black, but the team won't move him there, but the team seems more inclined to see him as a backup 1B/DH behind Hoskins/Yelich, and maybe some playing time in left field to give Chourio time off.

I'm not optimistic about Dunn's production at the MLB level in 2025. He needs a full year in Triple-A to deal with his high K rate and to fix his swing, and to be honest, I think Mike Boeve is a better prospect and should get the playing time there.

Apparently nobody believes Sal Frelick can play third base. Pat Murphy does, and has said as much. And the more time Frelick spends at third, the greater the opportunity for Tyler Black to replace his 2021 draft buddy in the outfield. The Brewers are in no position to ignore a hitting prospect like Black, and the outfield appears to be his calling. Given Yelich's uncertain timetable for returning to full strength and Mitchell's injury history, Black should be given an open window to win a roster spot as an outfielder. 

[Harold Hutchison]

1 hour ago, Snoebird said:

Apparently nobody believes Sal Frelick can play third base. Pat Murphy does, and has said as much. And the more time Frelick spends at third, the greater the opportunity for Tyler Black to replace his 2021 draft buddy in the outfield. The Brewers are in no position to ignore a hitting prospect like Black, and the outfield appears to be his calling. Given Yelich's uncertain timetable for returning to full strength and Mitchell's injury history, Black should be given an open window to win a roster spot as an outfielder. 

Frelick is a Gold Glove defender in the outfield. Makes no sense to move him from there. If he or Mitchell need a day off, there's Gold Glove finalist Blake Perkins to fill in. If Black's seeing a lot of time in the outfield, then there's been a lot of injuries or the Brewers have dealt someone (in that case, the best option is Perkins).

Yelich's full-time DH, maybe a day a week off.

Hoskins is at first, with 1-2 days a week off (depending on how hot his bat is).

Best way to get Black playing time is the hot corner, splitting some time with Caleb Durbin when Black isn't spelling Yelich/Hoskins at DH/1B. 

 

[jesusoftheapes]

21 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

 Before being acquired Dunn only played in seven games at the AAA level. I share your optimism regarding Durbin, though.

I dunno if this will work but here is some highlights of his 2023 season with the Phillies.     

 

[jesusoftheapes]

3 minutes ago, jesusoftheapes said:

I dunno if this will work but here is some highlights of his 2023 season with the Phillies.     

 

And yes I did say AAA when I meant 2023 Farm ball AA and AAA.   In total batting .273 in 2023 between AA and AAA.   21 Home runs  OPS of .902 , drove in 78 RBI, and Walked 82 times with 16 stolen bases.    I stand by my statement and I really think Oliver Dunn can be a very active batter for the Brewers in 2025.     I believed in Dunn when they got him and I still think he has MLB Chops.   I do not appologize for being positive about this team and its current roster.   Dunn has high upside ability and it has been injury as his biggest issue to this point in his career not a lack of talent.  2024 was injury problems again but you could still see the power he holds in his hitting even in the small sample size we got in 2024 .    I expect good things from Dunn, Mitchell and Durbin this season.     I like where we are at.       

 

[jay87shot]

At this point I am fine with some form of a Dunn and Durbin/Monesario platoon at 3rd. Dunn did show the tools to be a good 3rd baseman in the time we saw him last year. There is power and speed and he was a decent fielder. Consistency and lack of walks was a major problem but in the minors it was a strength so I do really like the upside of Dunn the most out of our options.

In reality Spring Training should sort out 3B, give Dunn, Durbin, Mone, and Sal (maybe Collins) as much 3B work as possible and there should be a decent option. If the all stink we can overpay a bit for someone like Baty or Mead who likely will be blocked.

[jesusoftheapes]

On 2/11/2025 at 12:05 PM, Harold Hutchison said:

Frelick is a Gold Glove defender in the outfield. Makes no sense to move him from there. If he or Mitchell need a day off, there's Gold Glove finalist Blake Perkins to fill in. If Black's seeing a lot of time in the outfield, then there's been a lot of injuries or the Brewers have dealt someone (in that case, the best option is Perkins).

Yelich's full-time DH, maybe a day a week off.

Hoskins is at first, with 1-2 days a week off (depending on how hot his bat is).

Best way to get Black playing time is the hot corner, splitting some time with Caleb Durbin when Black isn't spelling Yelich/Hoskins at DH/1B. 

 

I think Sal starts infield for every other team in baseball .   Have you ever taken the time to see him play infield?  He is a Golden Glove Shortstop too who would be amazing infield.    I think the Brewers think the same about him too which is why Sal is the next plug and play guy for the infield and has an infield and outfield glove at every game. 

[jesusoftheapes]

5 hours ago, jay87shot said:

At this point I am fine with some form of a Dunn and Durbin/Monesario platoon at 3rd. Dunn did show the tools to be a good 3rd baseman in the time we saw him last year. There is power and speed and he was a decent fielder. Consistency and lack of walks was a major problem but in the minors it was a strength so I do really like the upside of Dunn the most out of our options.

In reality Spring Training should sort out 3B, give Dunn, Durbin, Mone, and Sal (maybe Collins) as much 3B work as possible and there should be a decent option. If the all stink we can overpay a bit for someone like Baty or Mead who likely will be blocked.

I think they had one of the best 3rd basemen in the entire NL with Ortiz last season.   I think Putting Ortiz and Turang on that side of the field together will be special .   Durbin does not have 3rd base chops if you ask me . His arm is not place near where Ortiz or Dunn have there.  Durbins arm reminds me a lot of Collins who can play Shortstop but the arm is a bit less for the Hot Corner.   Durbin seems like 2nd base to me and with him there you would see 0 drop off from Turang who is the obvious choice for Shortstop.       The move is easy if you ask me .  It is simply moving Turang to Short, Ortiz and Dunn can swap at 3rd  and Dunn at 2nd if we live in a perfect world that is.   If Dunn can be the player I believe him to be then this entire thing becomes so easy it's silly.       If not their will have to be a bunch of movement to make 3rd and 2nd playout but all options are wonderful options there and I have no fear Shortstop will be a better defended position in 25' than in 24'.        

It will be critical the Brewers stay healthy this season to compete.   They have all the pieces to be champions if they are not playing the injury game through 2025.  The truth is they are LOADED with talented players who can make this infield into one of the best units in all of baseball .  With a healthy Dunn, Yelich and Contreras much offense will be produced from all spots but the defensive infield should be poised to win more awards by seasons end.    Like I said in other post here, Spring training this year has more stories that ever and the answers we get after spring this season will define the 2025 Brewers season well beyond the 2025 season.    Big year with unfinished business!   I love keeping the core team together for a change!         

[jay87shot]

On 2/12/2025 at 3:53 PM, jesusoftheapes said:

I think they had one of the best 3rd basemen in the entire NL with Ortiz last season.   I think Putting Ortiz and Turang on that side of the field together will be special .   Durbin does not have 3rd base chops if you ask me . His arm is not place near where Ortiz or Dunn have there.  Durbins arm reminds me a lot of Collins who can play Shortstop but the arm is a bit less for the Hot Corner.   Durbin seems like 2nd base to me and with him there you would see 0 drop off from Turang who is the obvious choice for Shortstop.       The move is easy if you ask me .  It is simply moving Turang to Short, Ortiz and Dunn can swap at 3rd  and Dunn at 2nd if we live in a perfect world that is.   If Dunn can be the player I believe him to be then this entire thing becomes so easy it's silly.       If not their will have to be a bunch of movement to make 3rd and 2nd playout but all options are wonderful options there and I have no fear Shortstop will be a better defended position in 25' than in 24'.        

It will be critical the Brewers stay healthy this season to compete.   They have all the pieces to be champions if they are not playing the injury game through 2025.  The truth is they are LOADED with talented players who can make this infield into one of the best units in all of baseball .  With a healthy Dunn, Yelich and Contreras much offense will be produced from all spots but the defensive infield should be poised to win more awards by seasons end.    Like I said in other post here, Spring training this year has more stories that ever and the answers we get after spring this season will define the 2025 Brewers season well beyond the 2025 season.    Big year with unfinished business!   I love keeping the core team together for a change!         

If Durbin does look the part in camp I would be all for Turang at ss and Ortiz at 3B. I do prefer Ortiz at ss and Turang at 2B just because turang was just so good defensively. I will say Ortiz was a gold glove 3B after the first 40 games or so. Another reason I would have the group of utility guys fight over 3B is that we have better prospects like Boeve close who will be 3B where we have no 2B prospects.

What about leaving Turang and Ortiz at 2B and 3B? Are there any SS options that are blocked and ready to trade for? Even someone to hold the spot for a year for Pratt.