What is Freddy Worth When Trades Come Calling?

[jesusoftheapes]

Freddy Peralta Trade Value

Trade value on the open market is 19.56 which ranks him 16th among starting pitcher's and 73rd overall. His maximum trade value within the past 60 days is 21.47.

The grading scale here is not my own so I really do not understand their metric but I do understand value and Freddy has it.   His age and lack of serious injury make him a rare bird as things go in modern pitching.    So I can present a tiny overview of value when it comes to what Freddy could bring in trade when the time comes.  

What does that mean?   I dunno but it sounds really nice.   Freddy is worth 16th best pitcher in trade value and 73 in total player value in all the MLB apparently.  However from what I research is they MLB values Freddy on the level of Garrett Cole(19.82) and Corbin Burns(18.53)

If the market says Freddy is worth what The Brewers got for Corbin Burns then the haul in acquired talent should look about the same when Freddy is traded and that time is coming close.   They may pull a Willy Adames and let him play out his contract through the 2026 season and take the loss as they did with Willy.   Do not count on that though because unlike Willy his trade value is miles more than Adames held in his last season as a Brewer and the Crew have more in place to replace Freddy than they had in place to replace Willy Adames.    This to me ensures that trading him has to be the plan moving into the last part of his Brewers contract.    

The Brewers acquired Star 3rd baseman and Shortstop Joey Ortiz,  Constantly injured disappointment yet flamethrowing left hand hurler DL Hall, and 1st baseman Blake Burke the prospect ranked 65 in MLB and 35 best prospect in the Brewers system as of the time of this forum post.   If the Brewers can get that kind of return on Freddy the entire Freddy Peralta project can be seen as nothing but one of this franchises most successful Pitching development success stories.      

We are not going to be moving him this season unless some pitcher needy team offers way more then Freddy is worth in trade but if that team is out there and has a package the Brewers think is irresistible bait they may just gulp it down.   

Trading Freddy is going to be a bitter pill to swallow.  No pitcher the Brewers have ever had a more homegrown feel than Fastball Freddy and when he is gone we are all going to miss him.    To me he seems like a guy born here.  A player God chose to be a Brewer and when his time is up we all will feel his loss.     Signed out of country in  18'  yet it somehow feels longer and like he has been here the whole time.    However that should not discourage us as fans to not think of what kind of Gems can be acquired when trading off a piece this talented.  Baseball makes player movement inevitable.   So dreaming of the things to come from those trades is not a bad way to get past the hurt of losing our favorite players to the market.    In fact it is the only way to feel good about these things so learn to lean into it Brewers fans.         

Freddy could even amplify the value he brings with a strong 2025 and could outperform the trade haul we got from Burns.    If Freddy challenges for Cy this season his value should exceed Corbin Burns in my opinion.     Burns being a Cy guy did not drive up his trade value but he was separated from that award by 2 season before the Brewers moved him.  If Freddy had that type of 2025 his value in trade the following offseason would peak and be higher at the time of trade shopping which would maximise his value in a big way.    Projecting Freddy to win Cy Young awards however has proven to be a practice in futility so far and everytime we do it Freddy goes the wrong direction on that front.    Everyone watching his career believes that he can find an extra gear in his game which will elevate his national value in a big way.   So there is still meat on this bone for him to get better unlike Burns who was maxed out as a player.   Thinking a 8 year pro Superstar Starting pitcher still has a thread of growth left to give a franchise has to make him extra valuable when teams come calling but showing he has passed that developmentally state in his career can only maximize that lift in value.    We cannot expect this and can only sit and hope he takes that step while in our rotation and not elsewhere after this coming move.   
 

  I cannot tell you when Fred will be shipped off to Parts Unknown but like with Burns he will get moved in my opinion.   I believe we will see him traded after the 2025 season is over (while we are polishing The 25' World Series Trophy)  and before the 2026 affair kicks off.     Trading him in season this year would be a major shake up  and because of that and a simple lack of need to move him now there are no reasons to think the Brewers will even consider this in 2025.       I do not see anything or anyone coming calling this year unless he somehow the Crew are injured up and down the batting order and have a whiff of the 25' season.  If that tragedy happens you will see his name included in this years Trade deadline.        I do not believe the Brewers will be in that position(thank the Gods)  with any luck(knock wood, Salt over the shoulder..  all that) and it would take much more than a Corbin Burns type haul to get the Brewers to move him this early.         So from worth 0 to the biggest trade prize in just one Dog Year is amazing and we are all lucky to have been part of his career and should have nothing but love in our hearts for Fastball Fred.     

       

[markedman5]

Probably belongs in the rumors and proposals forum……..they certainly aren’t looking to trade him until at least the deadline…….if things go badly.

Why some people want to focus on trading our good players when the season is a month from starting has always been bizarre to me.

[JosephC]

21 minutes ago, jesusoftheapes said:

Freddy Peralta Trade Value

Trade value on the open market is 19.56 which ranks him 16th among starting pitcher's and 73rd overall. His maximum trade value within the past 60 days is 21.47.

The grading scale here is not my own so I really do not understand their metric but I do understand value and Freddy has it. 

 

Looks like a basic surplus value calculation.

Over the last 3 years, Peralta has been good for 7.3 fWAR and 5.8 bWAR.  Average it all out and Peralta is a 2.2 WAR player per season.  He's under team control for 2 years for a total of 16 million dollars.  So 2.2 WAR per season times 2 years = 4.4 WAR times 8.05 dollars per WAR = a value of 35.42 million, then subtract the 16 million he will earn and his surplus value is 19.42 million which is almost the same number that you had posted (19.56).  Can't argue with the estimate at all.  If he stays healthy and throw 360 innings over those two seasons, he'll obviously be worth more.  If he has some injury problems and throws 220 innings over those two seasons, he'll obviously be worth less.  But the ~19.5 million in surplus value figure seems pretty fair and unbiased when you look at what he's done over the last three seasons.

[nate82]

Realistic return is probably something close to what the Brewers got back for one year of Burnes.

If this season goes sour then the Brewers probably get the Burnes return at the deadline depending on how well Peralta is pitching.  Otherwise I don’t see the Brewers trading him and instead just go with the pick compensation instead.

[jesusoftheapes]

57 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Realistic return is probably something close to what the Brewers got back for one year of Burnes.

If this season goes sour then the Brewers probably get the Burnes return at the deadline depending on how well Peralta is pitching.  Otherwise I don’t see the Brewers trading him and instead just go with the pick compensation instead.

Is his extra season worth more if we traded him now?  Would that increase his value on the market to have more than one season left under contract than Burns?  Thanks for your time. 

[jesusoftheapes]

1 hour ago, JosephC said:

Looks like a basic surplus value calculation.

Over the last 3 years, Peralta has been good for 7.3 fWAR and 5.8 bWAR.  Average it all out and Peralta is a 2.2 WAR player per season.  He's under team control for 2 years for a total of 16 million dollars.  So 2.2 WAR per season times 2 years = 4.4 WAR times 8.05 dollars per WAR = a value of 35.42 million, then subtract the 16 million he will earn and his surplus value is 19.42 million which is almost the same number that you had posted (19.56).  Can't argue with the estimate at all.  If he stays healthy and throw 360 innings over those two seasons, he'll obviously be worth more.  If he has some injury problems and throws 220 innings over those two seasons, he'll obviously be worth less.  But the ~19.5 million in surplus value figure seems pretty fair and unbiased when you look at what he's done over the last three seasons.

So say Freddy goes off this season.  Say he throws top 5 in pitching or even produces a Cy young vote or two.    Where does that put his value ?  Does one season of uptick in production really matter that much to a team willing to trade for a pitcher or do clubs value the season closest to the trade more than the overall body of work?  

[JosephC]

By fWAR, the 5th best pitcher in MLB last year was Dylan Cease at 4.8 fWAR.  If Peralta would do that in 2025 (assuming 4.8 for both fWAR and bWAR), his 3-year total fWAR would be 10.1 and 3-year total bWAR would be 9.4.  Average per season would be 3.25 WAR.  He would only be under control for 1 more season at 8 million.  3.25 WAR times 8.05 million/WAR = 26.1625 million dollars in value - 8 million salary = 18.1625 million in surplus value.  So if Peralta was a top 5 MLB pitcher in 2025, his value following the season would be just slightly less than what it is currently using this surplus value method/calculation.

[jay87shot]

I would think next offseason would be the time. He will get us a comp pick so my guess is that next offseason we should get more than Devin but less than Burnes. I would think maybe like an Ortiz and Comp pick value would be good with me. If for some reason we are looking to trade him at the deadline we should get 3 solid pieces.