Brewers Minor League Placements to Watch: The Hitters

[CheeseheadInQC]

There are several Brewers prospects whose season-opening roster assignment is not only unclear right now, but extremely interesting—because they could be telling about where the player stands in the eyes of the organization and what their future holds. Let's round them up.

Image courtesy of © Dave Kallmann / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Be it Cooper Pratt and Luis Lara (High A or Double A?), Josh Adamczewski and Eric Bitonti (Low A or High-A?) or the question of whether Luis Pena will skip the Arizona Complex League, the Brewers have some interesting minor-league roster decisions to make. With major-league spring training games well underway and the minor-league games soon to follow, we are ticking down the days until the release of minor-league rosters.

That day not only gives us a glimpse at what each of the teams will look like this season (well, at least to start; it is the minor leagues, after all), but also an idea of some of the club’s thinking. How aggressively are they pushing top prospects? How will playing time be distributed? The way the rosters are set can hint at the answers to these questions.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the more interesting decisions the Brewers have to make this year on the hitting side, with prospects who could at least have a case to start at two different levels. The guys on the fringes of the MLB roster have been and will continue to be written about extensively while that deadline looms, so instead, let's focus on each of the five Stateside minor-league clubs and the guys whose roster placement seems to be a coin flip between two of them.

AAA-AA: No One

I'm not sure I have ever seen a clearer divide between Triple A and Double A, on the hitting side. Maybe the Brewers surprise us, but as of right now, I just don’t see it. There is no bubble here. Maybe you could have made a case that the domino effect from the Blake Perkins injury would lead to Bladimir Restituyo ending up at Nashville, but I think the Mark Canha and Manuel Margot signings put an end to that.

Wait, I did kind of hint that I would be choosing at least someone for each of these divides, didn’t I? Well … one second.

*Frantically consults notes*

AAA-AA: Rodriguez vs. Miller … Possibly … Maybe

One potential surprise could be at catcher. I don't know if Jorge Alfaro has an opt-out clause, but if he does (and if he decides to exercise it), the Brewers would be short a catcher in Nashville. Similarly, if Jeferson Quero isn’t ready to catch right away, someone will need to fill in.

The easy choice roster-wise might be Nick Kahle. It wouldn't shock me, though, if the need was for more than a week or two, if the Brewers elevate either Darrien Miller or Ramon Rodriguez, the two halves of the presumed Double-A catching duo. Miller would seemingly have the edge, having started in Biloxi last season while Rodriguez was sharing time at Wisconsin.

I'd kind of lean the other way, however. Unlike Miller, Rodriguez has Triple-A experience, having spent portions of 2022 and 2023 there. It also sounds as if he is seen as the superior defender.

Once again, the most likely scenario has the two of them sharing time at Biloxi this season, but there is at least a chance the Brewers end up facing this question. And if they do end up needing to elevate one of them to Nashville, I wouldn’t be shocked if David Garcia and not Matt Wood ends up getting the other Double-A catching spot, but that is an entirely different topic.

AA-A+: How Aggressive Do They Get with Pratt & Lara?

While there might be one or two other decisions to be made—do they start Eduardo Garcia in Biloxi? With his impending free agency they kind of have to, right?—the headliners here are two of the Brewers' top 20 prospects, Cooper Pratt and Luis Lara.

From a roster construction standpoint, the easiest fit is Pratt to Wisconsin and Lara to Biloxi. Outside of the shortstop spot in Nashville, Wisconsin is the only place in the system that doesn't have plus infield depth, at least it doesn’t if Pratt starts in Biloxi. Similarly, Wisconsin might be the team that is the deepest in the outfield, and putting Lara in Double A would allow Dylan O'Rae to at least occasionally fill in for Jadher Areinamo at second and delay a full-time move to the outfield grass.

The thing is, that doesn't matter for top-20 guys like Lara, and certainly not top-5 guys like Pratt. You slot them in where it is best for them, and figure out the roster construction issues it brings later.

The question of what is right for them isn’t exactly clear-cut either.

Pratt saw his power soar after a late-season promotion to Wisconsin last season, but his contact rate and walk rate went in the opposite direction—making him, on the whole, less productive than he was with Carolina. He was not, however, awful (.700 OPS, 94 wRC+). Barring a complete loss of form, it seems likely that Pratt sees Biloxi this season. The question is, does he start there?

Unlike Pratt, Lara spent the whole of the 2024 season at High A. When you combine his 95 wRC+ with his stellar defense and speed, he was probably an above-average player by league standards. The question is, is that enough to warrant a promotion, when he is still young enough where starting off again in Wisconsin wouldn't exactly be the setback it is for some prospects? His AFL stint, where he neither starred nor seemed overwhelmed, did nothing to clarify the answer, either.

Both have had strong performances in big-league games this spring, but 10 at-bats apiece isn't a ton to go on.

Honestly, I'd be very tempted to have both start in High A and hope they quickly force their way up, like Mike Boeve did. As aggressive as the Brewers have been with some top prospects, though, it is probably more likely that both are promoted than both stick in Wisconsin. In the end, I'll guess they split them, with Pratt going to Biloxi and Lara staying in Wisconsin, despite it making more sense roster-wise for them to swap places.

If Pratt does make the jump to Double A to begin his second full post-draft season, he might have company among other 2023 prep picks league-wide. Between the 2010 and 2022 drafts, I believe 9 or 10 prep picks accomplished that feat. There could be seven in the 2023 class alone, with Walker Jenkins, Max Clark and Bryce Eldridge looking like locks and Kevin McGonigle, Colt Emerson, George Lombard Jr. and Pratt all having at least a shot to begin the year in Double A.

A+/A: More 2023 Picks & What to Do About Dinges

If Pratt does go to Biloxi to start the season, it opens up a bit of a hole on the Wisconsin roster. They have first base covered with Blake Burke and Tayden Hall both likely starting there, and Juan Baez will fill one of the infield spots. After that, though ….

I imagine, despite coming off a season that might otherwise have him repeating Low A, that Daniel Guilarte gets moved up. Jheremy Vargas will also likely see a lot more infield time than last season. They still need at least one more infielder, though. They could keep Eduardo Garcia in High A, despite the ticking clock, or they could move up another 2023 prep pick.

The question is, which one?

Eric Bitonti is the higher-ranked prospect and spent more time in Carolina last season, smacking eight home runs in 28 low-A games. Despite that, however, I might lean toward Josh Adamczewski.

I say this for a couple of reasons. First, while the power definitely plays, it would be nice to see Bitonti improve the strikeout rate a bit in a second go-around in Carolina. Despite the whiffs spiking a bit after getting promoted to Low A last season, that is still less of a concern for Adamczewski.

Second, while once again this is a secondary consideration with good prospects, Adamczewski fits the High-A roster better, given the scarcity of middle infielders, even if he is limited to second base.

Adamczewski and Bitonti aren't the only players on this bubble, though. You also have the case of Marco Dinges. Between his strong offensive output at Florida State and the success he had during his late-season cameo in Carolina, he would seem like an easy one to slot in at Wisconsin.

If the Brewers have any hopes for him sticking at catcher, however, I hope they don't.

For someone like Dinges, who doesn't have the ideal amount of experience as a catcher, I'd rather that he played at a level where they are relatively certain he can hit, given the amount of focus that the defense will be getting. If the hitting is strong and the defense is coming along well, you could always give him a midseason promotion. For now, though, I’d almost feel more confident in him if the Brewers start him at the lower level.

A/Complex: Who Will Skip the ACL & the Battle for the Bench

There aren’t a ton of sure bets for Low-A ball. Braylon Payne, Filippo Di Turi and Reese Walling seem likely to repeat. Edgardo Ordonez and Tyler Rodriguez were good enough in the Complex League that they seem likely to get promoted, and of course, I’m counting Jesus Made as basically a sure thing.

Depending upon the decisions made in the group above (along with some of the A+/A fringe outfielders), there could be a decent number of spots available in Carolina.

Of the remaining players, the highest profile is probably Luis Pena. While Pena might not have been the best prospect on his DSL team because, well, Jesus Made, he still compares favorably at that stage to some of the other recent prospects to skip the ACL. The Carolina infield is congested, especially if Adamczewski and Bitonti both start there, but I still think that Pena starts the season in Carolina.

That leaves a few players battling for the last couple of Carolina's roster spots. Among the ACL group from last year, the top remaining performer was Johan Barrios. The big-money 2022 IFA signing cut his strikeout rate more than 10 percentage points, down to a more manageable 23.7%. He still hasn't shown the power that he was touted to have when he signed, however. His batted-ball data looks a bit like 2023 Jadher Areinamo, which was good for Areinamo but not quite as ideal for a guy mostly playing first base who is still running K rates north of 20%.

Luiyin Alastre had a weird 2024 ACL season. He finished 62nd out of 77 qualifying ACL hitters in wRC+ but finished first in strikeout rate. His BABIP fell and he didn't see the accompanying surge in power that the ACL hitting environment brought for many. However, given that most of the alternatives boasted similar offensive output but combined with K rates at 25% and above rather than 11%, Alastre seems like a decent bet to break camp with Carolina, depending on some of the other roster decisions.

That's not to discount Gery Holguin, who saw a lot of ACL playing time and is entering his fourth year in the system, but the two other most interesting names to watch didn't play a game in the ACL last year for very different reasons.

The first was among the best surprises of the 2024 DSL season for Milwaukee. While Pena and Made had been part of the preseason big three, Jose Anderson was lesser known. His power, however, soon put him on the map. His DSL performance left him likely somewhere in the 25-35 range among Brewers prospects, and given the depth of Milwaukee's system, that is a big accomplishment for someone who hasn't played stateside yet. His stats compare favorably to Yophery Rodriguez, the only one of the Brewers prospects who have skipped the ACL recently who had a K-rate above 15%. However, unless it is simply because Jesus Made had sucked all the oxygen out of the room when it comes to coverage of the Brewers' 2024 IFA signees, Anderson doesn't seem to have quite the building chorus of praise that made Rodriguez skipping the ACL last season fairly unsurprising.

The other possibility is also entering his fourth season in the Brewers system after spending two years in the DSL and missing all of 2024 injured. Demetrio Nadal received a lot of attention entering last season after posting an OPS in 2023 that rivaled Made and Pena's 2024 marks. Was it the case of him announcing himself as a prospect to watch or another case of a DSL repeater mirage? We never got to find out last year.

Personally, if there are three available spots, I’d be betting on Barrios, Alastre and Nadal. Three guys skipping the ACL (possibly four if Wande Torres breaks camp with Carolina) might be pushing it, although a fast start would likely have Anderson in A-ball by June.

What Do You Think?

I've had my say, but what do you think? Should they push Cooper Pratt to AA? Should both Pena and Anderson join Made in Carolina? Is there some other placement you are watching closely on the hitting side? Let me know.

View full article

[Joseph Zarr]

To me Pratt and Lara are sure things - especially seeing Lara's newly acquired mass and stature - so I don't really spend any time contemplating where they are placed. In my assessment world it is a non-factor because they are such good players who I know the organization (and, honestly, talent evaluators League-wide) covets. To that end, I personally think the more interesting question resides in:

If and when Pratt and Areinamo start at Double-A Biloxi, what does that mean for EBJ and Ethan Murray in 2025 and moving forward as Brewers? Both were leap-frogged for a Nashville promotion last year by an almost equally uninspiring Freddy Zamora. Are they a traffic jam of players who simply aren't the professionals we want or wanted them to be or did each player simply have one of those inexplicably bad years for reasons unknown to us? Both are possible. Are they now relegated to back-ups? Or will they fight through the struggles and ball out to improve their standing and recapture their former standing?  

[jay87shot]

I prefer Pratt in Appleton by a sliver but barely and only for like 75-100 ab's just because I want him to get off to a better start to the year. However with the weather difference in Biloxi maybe Biloxi is a better place for hitters in April. Pratt only had 94 PA in A+ ball and wasn't great, although I would have no problem if they started him in AA based on his solid spring in big league camp. Also it gives Eric Brown a chance at AA SS, if he plays well it could boost his confidence and he could move to AAA quickly as well. I think the goal for me is to get Pratt like 100+ ab's in AAA this year and give him a shot to win an IF job next spring (if he earns it). I think that is possible either place he starts.

For me all the rest Lara, Dinges, Pena all should get the bump up. I like one of Jose Anderson or Juan Ortuno to go straight to A ball to play OF, as well as Wande Torres potentially.

[wiguy94]

I’m sticking with Pratt and Lara start in AA. I can’t recall the last time the Brewers invited prospects to big league camp then started those prospects in the lower minors. How they will make the IF work in AA is beyond me. O’Rae was listed as an OF for the Spring Breakout so I think he’s headed there. But still that leaves a jam packed infield. 

1B - Adams

2B - Areinamo

SS - Pratt

3B - Wilken

Bench - EBJ, Murray, Warren

[sveumrules]

Here's my best guess how they might divvy up weekly starts in that arrangement. Would need to give everyone a day a week at DH too...

1B - Adams (3) Wilken (3)
2B - Areinamo (3) EBJ (3)
SS - Pratt (5) EBJ (1)
3B - Wilken (2) Adams (2) Areinamo (2)

Ideally Wilken/Adams would get more time at 3B and EBJ would get more at SS, but not sure there's any way to really make it work unless they're only gonna play EBJ like two times a week on the dirt or start trying him on the OF grass a couple times a week.

[Lathund]

I think Pratt in AA is an almost sure thing. He wasn't great in A+ but he also didn't really struggle, he could handle it. You'd expect his time there to be brief if he went there, and most of the season spent in AA. In that case I would rather just have him there from the start, facing better opposition for longer, working with the same coaches etc. And I'd imagine prospects themselves like it when they can stay longer in one place. 

[Ro Mueller]

Thanks for this.

That early season Rodriguez-Miller-Kahle AAA decision (until Quero can catch) will probably come down to whoever can best handle Yoho and Misiorowski.

Pratt seems like a fast track Major Leaguer, so I struggle to think we’d send him to Appleton at 20 years, 7.5 months.

And yeah, if Pratt’s in AA, we might as well get Adamczewski up to High-A if he’s ready.

I guess we could make Lara initially repeat High-A and have Kay Lan Nicasia (among MILB farmhand call-ups today - first sighting since May 16, 2024 injury, I think) be an old man in Low-A, giving Restituyo, Spain, Adam Hall and Eduardo Garcia more time in the Biloxi outfield with O’Rae.

Guys like Luis Pena, Jose Anderson, Wande Torres and Demetrio Nadal could stay back in Extended Spring Training and still technically skip ACL ball by getting promoted to Carolina before ACL games start on May 3rd.