Did the Brewers Overpay for Quinn Priester and His Uniquely Deceptive Arsenal?

[Jake McKibbin]

The Brewers made a surprise agreement with the Red Sox to bring former top prospect Quinn Priester into their pitching staff, but at a hefty price. Did they overpay, or are there reasons to believe Priester is worth the weight?

Image courtesy of © Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

For an organization that prizes draft flexibility, this was a steep price to pay for an arm whom many remember as the struggling talent of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Quinn Priester has a career 6.23 ERA in the big leagues, with 69 strikeouts and 41 walks in 99 2/3 innings. None of those numbers are impressive. Priester hasn't struck out major-league hitters at the rate you want to see. He walks a lot of them, and regularly concedes runs. So why did the Brewers target him?

Priester is a former top prospect (and the Brewers love some dusty prospect hype) who saw his arsenal change with the Red Sox after a trade last July. In Boston, they've become notorious for their devaluation of fastballs, particularly four-seamers. Instead, they use cutters and offspeed offerings more often. That's not the same thing as saying that they fail to see the value in throwing hard, though, and even as they've encouraged Priester to make a change in his fastball profile, he's increased his velocity under their watch. For a pitcher who used to sit 92-94 mph, he now averages 95 mph on the sinker and has been touching 97 consistently this spring.

In fact, looking at his 2025 arsenal, his velocity is up on every one of his pitches but the changeup, which was already a firm offering at 90mph. The curveball has more speed and less drop, while the changeup and sinker have largely retained the same characteristics, despite the speed bump. However, I'm not sure even that is the value the Brewers see in Priester. Instead, it could be this:

The above diagram is from Jeremy Maschino's Pitch Profiler, and considers how one pitch follows another. On the bottom row is the initial pitch, and then on the left is the pitch that follows, with a grade (in which 100 is average) to show how well those two pitches tunnel together in sequence. Maschino's models don't regard Priester as having even close to big-league stuff in his 2024 MLB appearances, However, the velocity improvements on all of his offerings will help that (as Thomas Nestico shows below). I'm also going to hazard a guess that the change in his curveball shape—to a heavier, later-breaking pitch—will help it blend much more effectively with the rest of his arsenal.

I've not seen a pitch map like the above for anyone before. Usually, fastball offerings blend well, breaking pitches blend well, but the shape differentiation means that fastball/slider don't always "Match" nicely. Priester's entire arsenal blends together fantastically; it's one big reason why he consistently generates elite chase rates on all of his offerings:

The above is Priester's first (and only) start of the season so far, showcasing that deadly sinker/slider combo he possesses, but most intriguing are the chase rates on his three most used pitches. It's a trend that has followed Priester in 2023 and 2024, and I believe the Brewers see something they can harness using the deception that Priester possesses. With the tweaks to his arsenal, he's capable of consistently inducing bad swing decisions.

Yophery Rodriguez was the No. 10 prospect on Brewer Fanatic this offseason, with some loud tools and an advanced bat for his age. He performed admirably in Low-A Carolina last year, although some concern did arise on his chase rates. here's what our blurb had to say about him:

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What to Work On:
After showing fantastic ball/strike recognition in the Dominican Summer League, Rodríguez did struggle a bit with that portion of his game in Low-A. His 26% whiff rate is not a huge cause for concern, but it is higher than what would have been expected of him, based on the DSL reports. Chase rates are not publicly available for Rodríguez, but he did appear to struggle to lay off many of the offspeed offerings he saw with Carolina. This is not uncommon for an 18-year-old who is likely seeing the best breaking balls he has ever seen. While his strikeout rate ended up worse than average for the season, he improved significantly as the season progressed. In April, his strikeout rate was over 35%, it dropped to 25% in May, and then was never higher than 21.8% in any month for the rest of the season.

While Rodríguez does have the potential to hit for power, home run pop has yet to really show itself in games. He has natural loft to his swing, and his exit velocities are above-average for his age, so it was a bit surprising not to see more than seven home runs this season. He did at least show gap power, posting 23 doubles and six triples. There’s a chance that the power numbers will suddenly show up in 2025 as he continues to mature, but for now, that is all still based on power projection, rather than in-game production.

 

Rodriguez is just 19 years old, having skipped the complex in Arizona to jump straight into Low-A, but there are concerns he may be a future corner outfielder (albeit a good one, defensively). Whether he can grow into enough power while continuing to control his chase rates as the pitching levels continue to improve is anyone's guess. He's still several years from the major leagues, whereas Priester is ready now, and controllable for six years.

Priester for Rodriguez is a deal slightly skewed towards the Brewers, but the Competitive Balance Round A pick the Crew also had to include certainly swings things the other way. It's a big piece to give up, hampering their flexibility in the upcoming draft with how they use their bonus pool allocations.

If you choose to think of transactions in these terms, it's fair to say the Red Sox won this trade. Then again, the Red Sox organization was rumored to be high on Priester, and proud of the developments they've overseen in him since he joined their ball club. Combining that with the intelligence of their front office and the desperation of the Brewers to fill their rotation immediately, it was always going to require an overpay.

Hindsight could favor either side, as always, but if the Brewers can truly unlock Priester, this could look like a steal. If results continue at the major-league level for him as they have in the past, and Rodriguez goes from strength to strength, it could look like one of the worst Brewers trades in the last decade. Time will tell.

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What do you think of the Brewers trade? Did they give up too much? let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

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[SF70]

The improvement he showed after working with Boston’s fantastic PDS combined with the ability of my team to identify pitchers they can improve gives me confidence we are getting a solid starter for our rotation for half a decade.

 

 

[Frisbee Slider]

Let’s enjoy this season of baseball. 🙂

We can focus on what matters most, taking the Cubs and Cardinals down a peg. 
If Priester gives us 140 IP of above replacement level performance, that’s wonderful and possibly worth it. Plus, Quinn is available through 2030.

And yes, we wish Shane Smith well. Smith walked four in his first start against what has been a terrible Twins offense. A very small sample plus a .133 BABIP allowed means Smith might not be a guaranteed long term starter. We will see 🤷‍♂️

[Terry]

That's my thought as to why they kill the curveball drop as well.

From LHB standpoint, curveball didn't blend all that well to rest of the arsenals compared to RHB. 

It seems like the new version will be much more similar to that of slider. But sample size is too small for now for the plot to be actually meaningful. 

[Brian]

One thing I have noticed since David Stearns has left is a noticeable decline in pitching with the Brewers. Stearns had an ability to develop and acquire talented pitchers at a much better level than Matt Arnold does.  But On the other hand I believe Matt Arnold is a little better on the offensive side of the baseball.   

I never seem to get to excited anymore with any of these trades we make because 1/2 are players I have never heard of and the other 1/2 are players that I have heard of but were on the injured list with in the past 12 months or at the tail end of there career.  At least he is a young pitcher, I hope he pitchers great and works out.  JMHO

[jay87shot]

It's nice to see him throwing 95 average. If he can throw 95 over last year's 93 this becomes a better trade.

There is no doubt we overplayed just based on the early season. Last year at the deadline his value was Nick Yorke who is the Pirates 5th prospect. Value wise he probably has more than Yophery but likely not as much as the 33rd pick. Looking at it I initially said it was a D grade, looking a bit more at Priester and some extra mph I will say C. Clearly it could go either way, especially with both the pieces being at least a couple years away from ready.

[Michael Trzinski]

Jake wrote:

Rodriguez is just 19 years old, having skipped the complex in Arizona to jump straight into Low-A, but there are concerns he may be a future corner outfielder (albeit a good one, defensively). Whether he can grow into enough power while continuing to control his chase rates as the pitching levels continue to improve is anyone's guess. He's still several years from the major leagues, whereas Priester is ready now, and controllable for six years.

I would guess Yoph is probably 2-3 years away, but he could also become a Monte Harrison, Corey Ray, or Tristan Lutz. They were all Top 50 draft picks that just didn't pan out. Maybe not a completely accurate comparison, but the Brewers had high hopes for all these guys at one time, too.

[maxximus]

if i recall, the other gamble is that Priester only has 1 more option year remaining, so while 6 years of control sounds good, it only matters if he's a mainstay in the rotation for most of it, because they won't be able to bounce him back and forth as filler for as much of that time in the way they could with other players. Doesn't mean he couldn't still be worth it, just another wrinkle to the trade that makes it a little more complicated.

I'm curious how much stock can be put into throwing harder for 1 month of ST this year. It's good to know he has that in him, but can he deliver it consistently during the season going forward?

[Terry]

1 hour ago, maxximus said:

I'm curious how much stock can be put into throwing harder for 1 month of ST this year. It's good to know he has that in him, but can he deliver it consistently during the season going forward?

From FanGraphs, he specifically made that a goal and added 10 pounds compared to last year, so hopefully yes.

[Lathund]

If Priester is even a #4 type starter for a few years, it's a perfectly fine price to pay. MLB ready starters with team control aren't cheap. I'm sure the Brewers can turn him into a servicable major leaguer.