Padres at Brewers; Friday, June 6 @ 7:10 p.m.: Chad Patrick (2.97 ERA, 3.29 FIP) vs. Randy Vásquez (3.99 ERA, 5.34 FIP)

[Jim French Stepstool]

First of all, there is no team anywhere that's looking to win that wouldn't benefit from having Maldonado on their roster. Whether it's sharing the job, backing up, whatever. Kinda like a poor mans' Molina. You can just see the experience, the moxie dripping off the guy.

Cronenworth saved the day for SD by keeping Yelichs' ball on the INF, as did Sheets by going off the bag to save the throw. Frustrating, but top-shelf baseball.

Funny, but outside of one AB (the HR on a horrible 2-strike pitch) I think we might've swung the bats better collectively then they did. That's not to say we were good, obviously. Durbin was a killer in the 2nd inning; waaay too overanxious instead of letting the ball travel a bit. And as good as he's been, it's difficult to imagine offering at a pitch as far off the plate as Yelich did in his next-to-last AB.

I'll take my chances every day if we get work like Patrick turned in. And Ashby was downright eye-opening.

[nate82]

3 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

Nobody said that. Chourio this season has not been swinging at strikes. Given his obp he could stand to be more selective. Now if you have a graphic that shows that all he does is swing at strikes this season let's see it. The idea of baseball is not to hit the ball hard to a fielder. It's to get on base. The fascination with he hit it hard but made an out is weird. 

Except you were complaining about him swinging at a strike that was right down the freaking middle of the plate.  

Here are all of the PA's for Chourio in today's game.  Tell me which one where he swung at a ball and tell me the result.  

Here is Chourio's O-Swing%.  He is swinging outside of the zone a bit too much this season but I think as the season goes on he will be closer to that 30% mark that he was in last year.  So yeah he does swing out of the zone a bit but it is not at an alarming rate.  He definitely doesn't need to be more selective probably just a little bit more selective but not much.  

 

As for his OBP it will always be more on the hitting side than it will be on the walk side.  If you look at his MiLB numbers he has never been a big walk guy.  His highest BB% has been 7.4% in a full year not including the DSL.  So he is not going to walk all that much and he is going to swing so his OBP is going to be heavily towards hitting than it will be towards walking.  

A better swinging at pitches that are in the zone and very hittable pitches are what you want regardless of the outcome.  Sometimes the ball just finds a fielders glove when you put the ball in play even if the ball is hit perfectly.  There is a reason why there are very few players who have had a .400 average for a season.  Heck an average north of .300 is becoming more and more rare.  In the past 10 seasons there have been a max of 25 players to hit .300 more in two of the past 10 seasons not including 2020.  So from 2014-2024 on average you are looking at about 12 players a season hitting .300 or better.  Hitting has become far more difficult today than in the past.  If a hitter has an advantage then they need to be swinging at that pitch.  If it is 0-0 or 1-0 or 2-0 the hitter should be swinging at pitches that go straight down the middle of the plate.   Chourio swung at 3 of them this game and went 0-3 on them sometimes that is going to happen and then on the pitch that is low and in off the plate you get a hit off of it.  That is just baseball you are swinging a roundish bat at a round ball.  There are just too many random outcomes to say swinging at pitches that go down the middle of the plate are a bad idea.  

[Jim French Stepstool]

29 minutes ago, nate82 said:

To expand on the seeing more pitches per PA does absolutely nothing.  From a Fangraphs article in 2015.  

https://community.fangraphs.com/does-seeing-more-pitches-lead-to-more-runs/

There is no evidence that seeing more pitches is good.  In fact it is probably going to lead to more strikeouts.  So seeing more pitches is just dumb.  If you are just seeing more pitches to see more pitches as your strategy then you are a dumb hitter.  There is no other way to put it.  It is just dumb to watch pitches just to watch pitches.  

If a pitch is splitting the middle of the plate and it is 0-0 or 1-0 or 2-0 or even 3-0 the hitter should be swinging at it.  This is the pitch you are waiting for you are getting a pitch put on a tee for you to swing at and you are more than likely not going to get a better pitch in the AB to swing at.  

A hitter should always be swinging at pitches they can do damage on not watching them just because it is the first pitch in the AB.  

IMO both sides of this argument are flawed unless you look at the entirety of each individual situation, instead of arguing for a "one size fits all" approach.

With men on base & a sense of familiarity from previous ABs, ambushing early can be a great thing. I've seen countless times when we put ourselves in bad counts by being too passive. I've also seen games when the opposing BP was shot coming in, but we can't take advantage because the starter goes seven innings on 83 pitches due to over-anxiousness. And late in games, there are tons of hitters that want to see a first pitch from a new reliever. Again, this isn't a one size fits all thing.

Did you want Isaac Collins swinging 3-0 tonite?

 

[BruisedCrew]

The Brewers have now had 4 weak offensive games in the 5 games since the 17 run explosion last Saturday. Hopefully they aren't headed for another putrid stretch like the one in May.

Tonight's game is their 22nd scoring 2 runs or less and they are 1-21 in those games.

The only NL playoff contender with close to that many games of 2 runs or less is the Padres, who now have 24. But, they are now 8-16 in those games, including 6-3 when they score exactly 2. They have the pitching to win those close, low scoring games, but the Brewers don't.

[Jim French Stepstool]

10 minutes ago, nate82 said:

There are just too many random outcomes to say swinging at pitches that go down the middle of the plate are a bad idea.  

What if it's 2-0, the opposing pitcher just walked the bases loaded, you're Joey Ortiz, there are two outs, and the on-deck hitter is working on a three-hit day?

Look, I appreciate the #'s you posted. But there really is no such thing as 'this is what you should do' w/regards to something like this. There isn't enough bandwidth to discuss the myriad of situations that factor into this stuff.

[nate82]

1 minute ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Did you want Isaac Collins swinging 3-0 tonite?

If the pitch is going over the middle of the plate yes, yes I do.  Collins is a poor hitter and having him watch a pitch go down the middle of the plate that he could handle is just not a good strategy.  He is more than likely going to fail at getting on base even in a hitters count.  Swinging at pitches that are beneficial to a hitter is the point of swinging at pitches.  As a hitter you want the best possible pitch to swing at.  If that happens on 3-0 you would definitely want Collins swinging there.  If the 3-0 pitch is going down the middle of the plate that is the exact pitch you want someone like Collins swinging at.  

[Bulldogboy]

5 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

What if it's 2-0, the opposing pitcher just walked the bases loaded, you're Joey Ortiz, there are two outs, and the on-deck hitter is working on a three-hit day?

Look, I appreciate the #'s you posted. But there really is no such thing as 'this is what you should do' w/regards to something like this. There isn't enough bandwidth to discuss the myriad of situations that factor into this stuff.

Exactly. The guy seems to think that Chourio is having a great season and the only problem he has is hitting into bad luck. 

[nate82]

4 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

What if it's 2-0, the opposing pitcher just walked the bases loaded, you're Joey Ortiz, there are two outs, and the on-deck hitter is working on a three-hit day?

Look, I appreciate the #'s you posted. But there really is no such thing as 'this is what you should do' w/regards to something like this. There isn't enough bandwidth to discuss the myriad of situations that factor into this stuff.

Yes I want Ortiz swinging 2-0 it is a hitters count.  The point of getting to a hitters count is to get a pitch that you can do damage on.  If the pitch is something the hitter can do damage on they should be swinging not watching the pitch.  

Why is this so hard to understand?  Batter gets a good pitch to swing at they should be swinging at it not watching it.  There is no guarantee that they will get a better pitch to swing at or even get on base.  The batter should be swinging at pitches that are hittable.  

Now ask yourself this if Ortiz watches a very hittable pitch go by and it is 2-1.  How confident are you in him getting on base at 2-1?  Does your confidence go up or will it go down?  

[Bulldogboy]

3 minutes ago, nate82 said:

If the pitch is going over the middle of the plate yes, yes I do.  Collins is a poor hitter and having him watch a pitch go down the middle of the plate that he could handle is just not a good strategy.  He is more than likely going to fail at getting on base even in a hitters count.  Swinging at pitches that are beneficial to a hitter is the point of swinging at pitches.  As a hitter you want the best possible pitch to swing at.  If that happens on 3-0 you would definitely want Collins swinging there.  If the 3-0 pitch is going down the middle of the plate that is the exact pitch you want someone like Collins swinging at.  

Madness 

[wiguy94]

I'm surprised how many Brewers fans I've seen shocked at how good Ashby looked today. He didn't look this good in his first two outings but this is pretty much exactly what he looked like the last 5 weeks of the season last year when he was one of the best relievers in MLB.

These were his numbers post being called up in late August:

19.2 IP, 1.37 ERA, 0.78 FIP, 1.70 xFIP, 37% K-rate, 4% BB-rate, 51% GB-rate

[Bulldogboy]

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

I'm surprised how many Brewers fans I've seen shocked at how good Ashby looked today. He didn't look this good in his first two outings but this is pretty much exactly what he looked like the last 5 weeks of the season last year when he was one of the best relievers in MLB.

These were his numbers post being called up in late August:

19.2 IP, 1.37 ERA, 0.78 FIP, 1.70 xFIP, 37% K-rate, 4% BB-rate, 51% GB-rate

I think it's because Murphy has buried him. It was kinda like why was Alexander left to lose a game when this guy is out in the pen.

[nate82]

Just now, Bulldogboy said:

Madness 

How is that madness?  You want Collins to be swinging at a pitch that is not going down the middle of the plate?  What happens if Collins watches a pitch go right down the middle of the plate and then it is 3-1 and then the next two pitches hit the edge of the zone and he K's?  Is that the better outcome because he saw two more pitches?

If a pitch is over the plate you want someone like Collins swinging at it not taking it.  He is a poor hitter for a reason and you want to have him in the best situation to be swinging at a pitch.  If that is 3-0 on a fastball going down the middle of the plate that is the pitch you want him swinging at not a 3-1 breaking pitch that is on the black or a 3-2 breaking pitch that he may not even foul off.  

4 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

Exactly. The guy seems to think that Chourio is having a great season and the only problem he has is hitting into bad luck. 

I never said this.  

[edfunderburk]

23 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Tonight's game is Milwaukee’s 22nd scoring 2 runs or less and they are 1-21 in those games.

What a shocking statistic 

That is over 1/3 of their games with two runs or less

 

[Bulldogboy]

10 minutes ago, nate82 said:

How is that madness?  You want Collins to be swinging at a pitch that is not going down the middle of the plate?  What happens if Collins watches a pitch go right down the middle of the plate and then it is 3-1 and then the next two pitches hit the edge of the zone and he K's?  Is that the better outcome because he saw two more pitches?

If a pitch is over the plate you want someone like Collins swinging at it not taking it.  He is a poor hitter for a reason and you want to have him in the best situation to be swinging at a pitch.  If that is 3-0 on a fastball going down the middle of the plate that is the pitch you want him swinging at not a 3-1 breaking pitch that is on the black or a 3-2 breaking pitch that he may not even foul off.  

I never said this.  

You clearly think that being more selective would lead to worse results and his 285 obp is not an issue. I disagree. You are focused on two ab tonight. I'm saying in general. Fact is he hasn't been good regardless of when and what he swings at and it's a problem. 

[nate82]

2 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

You clearly think that being more selective would lead to worse results and his 285 obp is not an issue. I disagree. You are focused on two ab tonight. I'm saying in general. Fact is he hasn't been good regardless of when and what he swings at and it's a problem. 

So now you know how I think?  What?  Did you even read what I put in reply to you.  Chourio walking more is not a realistic expectation.  Please look at his MiLB stats and you will see why this is not a realistic expectation.  I am not going to repeat exactly what I posted previously.  It wasn't just two AB's tonight it was all of them.  Again look at this post it goes over all of his AB's and his minor league stats.  

 

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, Bulldogboy said:

Nobody said that. Chourio this season has not been swinging at strikes. Given his obp he could stand to be more selective. Now if you have a graphic that shows that all he does is swing at strikes this season let's see it. The idea of baseball is not to hit the ball hard to a fielder. It's to get on base. The fascination with he hit it hard but made an out is weird. 

I feel like you think MLB hitters have greater control over whether it's hit at a fielder than they actually do....The goal is literally to hit the ball hard.

Yes, Chourio has been a bit too overagressive at times this year including expanding out of the zone. But tonight provides absolutely zero evidence of that. He was barreling up pitches right down the middle. Unfortunately 3 of them went right at fielders. Bad luck. It happens. Bottom line is you want a hitter like Chourio swinging at those pitches especially when the alternative is getting behind in the count. That's not even going to get you on base. 

[Bulldogboy]

12 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I feel like you think MLB hitters have greater control over whether it's hit at a fielder than they actually do....The goal is literally to hit the ball hard.

Yes, Chourio has been a bit too overagressive at times this year including expanding out of the zone. But tonight provides absolutely zero evidence of that. He was barreling up pitches right down the middle. Unfortunately 3 of them went right at fielders. Bad luck. It happens. Bottom line is you want a hitter like Chourio swinging at those pitches especially when the alternative is getting behind in the count. That's not even going to get you on base. 

Again you are focused on tonight. My opinion and I know this is controversial here is he could stand to see a few more pitches. That's it. Now if you have any issue with that so be it. If he was Tony Gwynn I wouldn't either but he isn't. Working the count just a bit more can't hurt. I repeat again his obp is 285. Adames is hitting 190 this season and has the same obp. What he's doing isn't working so try something different imo.

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

Again you are focused on tonight. My opinion and I know this is controversial here is he could stand to see a few more pitches. That's it. Now if you have any issue with that so be it. If he was Tony Gwynn I wouldn't either but he isn't. Working the count just a bit more can't hurt. I repeat again his obp is 285. 

Well, it is the IGT and your initial comments were related to his ABs in tonight's game...

And if you've watched his ABs over the last couple weeks or so, you can see that he's taking more pitches and chasing less. Non-coincidentally, he's getting on base at a .377 clip and has been our hottest hitter along with Yelich. He's low on our list of problems.

[Bulldogboy]

10 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Well, it is the IGT and your initial comments were related to his ABs in tonight's game...

And if you've watched his ABs over the last couple weeks or so, you can see that he's taking more pitches and chasing less. Non-coincidentally, he's getting on base at a .377 clip and has been our hottest hitter along with Yelich. He's low on our list of problems.

Not really given the state of the offense a guy who hits leadoff quite often with an obp of 285 is a huge problem. Now on a team that can hit maybe not but on this one it is. By the way I said it would be nice if Chourio could see more than 1 pitch per ab. I didn't say tonight. It's a general point. 

[brewmann04]

7time shutout already  this team needs to find a bat 

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, Bulldogboy said:

Not really given the state of the offense a guy who hits leadoff quite often with an obp of 285 is a huge problem. Now on a team that can hit maybe not but on this one it is.

Turang has by far the most ABs as the leadoff man on this team....

Chourio hits leadoff pretty much exclusively against LHP who he has a .386 OBP against....

Again, we have much bigger problems, like getting sub replacement level production from the left side of the infield, zero power from Contreras, etc.....

[Bulldogboy]

9 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Turang has by far the most ABs as the leadoff man on this team....

Chourio hits leadoff pretty much exclusively against LHP who he has a .386 OBP against....

Again, we have much bigger problems, like getting sub replacement level production from the left side of the infield, zero power from Contreras, etc.....

Oh I agree with that however you guys decided it was a hill to die on. I didn't think it was newsworthy at all that being more selective couldn't hurt. Then I was told he's Stan Musial. No big deal though. Hopefully he'll get it together. 

[nate82]

19 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

Oh I agree with that however you guys decided it was a hill to die on. I didn't think it was newsworthy at all that being more selective couldn't hurt. Then I was told he's Stan Musial. No big deal though. Hopefully he'll get it together. 

I see nowhere where anyone said he is Stan Musial.  May want to step away from the bong or the alcohol because you are hallucinating.  Chourio was actually selective in the game today.  Again look at the screenshots provided.  I have already talked about his season so far and that he hasn't been as selective with his O-Swing%.  He isn't all that far off from last year with his O-Swing%.  He also won't walk all that much check his MiLB numbers for proof on this.  This is just not his game and expecting him to walk more than he did in the minors is rather foolish to expect out of Chourio.  

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, nate82 said:

If the pitch is going over the middle of the plate yes, yes I do.  Collins is a poor hitter and having him watch a pitch go down the middle of the plate that he could handle is just not a good strategy.  He is more than likely going to fail at getting on base even in a hitters count.  Swinging at pitches that are beneficial to a hitter is the point of swinging at pitches.  As a hitter you want the best possible pitch to swing at.  If that happens on 3-0 you would definitely want Collins swinging there.  If the 3-0 pitch is going down the middle of the plate that is the exact pitch you want someone like Collins swinging at.  

Fair enough. I disagree.

Collins has spent his professional career, in part, by reaching base a respectable amount of the time any way that he can. Employing your strategy 100% of the time, I'm very confident he would never have sniffed a roster spot.

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, nate82 said:

Yes I want Ortiz swinging 2-0 it is a hitters count.  The point of getting to a hitters count is to get a pitch that you can do damage on.  If the pitch is something the hitter can do damage on they should be swinging not watching the pitch.  

Why is this so hard to understand?  Batter gets a good pitch to swing at they should be swinging at it not watching it.  There is no guarantee that they will get a better pitch to swing at or even get on base.  The batter should be swinging at pitches that are hittable.  

Now ask yourself this if Ortiz watches a very hittable pitch go by and it is 2-1.  How confident are you in him getting on base at 2-1?  Does your confidence go up or will it go down?  

2-0 is a so-called 'hitters' count'. So is 2-1. I'd feel the same, confidence-wise, either way. 

I don't know what else to tell you. I'm sure you watch a lot of baseball. You see people take "hittable" pitches all the time, and not just Brewers' hitters. If you want Ortiz being aggressive in the above situation---and Isaac Collins swinging 3-0---all the time, every time then you're in for some disappointment.