The Brewers' Offense, Jameson Taillon, and the Nuance of Attacking Strikes

[Jack Stern]

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Throughout baseball, hitting development is still trying to catch up to pitching development, and new bat-tracking technology could emerge as a tool that helps close the gap once front offices, coaches, and players discover how to best interpret and apply it. For now, the Brewers emphasize swing decisions, preaching it throughout all levels of the organization and tracking it with their own internal metric.

What constitutes a wise swing decision is more nuanced than swinging at strikes and laying off balls. In non-two-strike counts, the Brewers would prefer their hitters to watch a strike in a location they struggle to hit, rather than take a non-productive swing. It’s why Garrett Mitchell is passive against fastballs in the top third of the zone and why Pat Murphy wants Brice Turang to follow suit.

As a result, the Brewers have baseball’s third-lowest chase rate since the start of 2023, but they’ve also taken more strikes (18.1% called strike rate) than any other team in that span. Their 63.1% in-zone swing rate is the lowest for the second consecutive season.

On the whole, the Brewers were not more aggressive than usual in Thursday’s series finale at Wrigley Field, swinging at 62.9% of in-zone pitches. However, they offered at 68% of in-zone pitches from starter Jameson Taillon, scoring five of their eight runs within the first three innings against him. Milwaukee’s offense tallied eight hits against Taillon, while posting an average exit velocity of 95 mph.

That increased aggression looked more like a response to Taillon’s form than a sudden, concerted effort to take more swings. The right-hander struggled to land his curveball and left plenty of his harder pitches over the heart of the plate. The Brewers capitalized on those mistakes.

After Taillon departed, the Brewers were noticeably less aggressive against relievers Genesis Cabrera, Chris Flexen, and Drew Pomeranz, and the latter two held Milwaukee scoreless over its final four innings. It wasn’t that the offense spontaneously abandoned a successful approach, but that Flexen and Pomeranz made more quality pitches around the edges of the strike zone.

Perhaps the Brewers could still benefit from attacking more pitches in the zone overall—their 68.2% swing rate on pitches tagged by Statcast as within the heart of the strike zone is also baseball’s lowest—but Thursday served as a reminder that commanding hitters to swing at more strikes can be overly simplistic. There’s more to swing decisions than offering at strikes and laying off balls. A hitter’s hot and cold zones and the pitcher’s ability to locate to the latter are big parts of the equation.

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[Bob K]

Interesting stuff Jack. I can understand why a hitter would want to lay off a pitch in the part of the zone in which he was having trouble. However I have a hard time understanding why the hitting coaches would be teaching that approach. Pitchers know where hitters have holes in the strike zone and are going to prioritize those spots. If hitters don’t learn to adjust their swings accordingly and continue to take called strikes, they will always be hitting behind the count and giving the pitcher even more of an advantage. The Brewers philosophy makes no sense to me. 

[Underachiever]

I would love it if someone could tell me how often the Brewers are in 0-2 counts, and how that compares to league averages. My conservative estimate is that it happens in 100% of at-bats, with Yelich starting off 0-2 about 110% of the time. 
 

And I know it’s not really 100%, since Chourio always swings at the first pitch. 

[sveumrules]

35 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

I would love it if someone could tell me how often the Brewers are in 0-2 counts, and how that compares to league averages.

Ask & ye shall receive.

If I'm reading the league splits on BRef correctly, MLB as a whole hits 164/197/246 after finding themselves in an 0-2 count.

The Brewers 621 plate appearances are 5th most in this split with their 171/208/250 triple slash adding up to a .458 OPS which is 9th "best" in the split.

Chourio at 242/242/400 has done a decent job fighting back all things considered, Yelich at 080/138/147...not so much.

On the pitching side the Brewers 624 plate appearances are also 5th most and they've gotten almost exactly average results with a 166/193/246 triple slash.

Clicking one more time for fun, it looks like Freddy Peralta has had 82 PA after an 0-2 count with a 105/160/105 triple slash so far this year.

[Underachiever]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Ask & ye shall receive.

If I'm reading the league splits on BRef correctly, MLB as a whole hits 164/197/246 after finding themselves in an 0-2 count.

The Brewers 621 plate appearances are 5th most in this split with their 171/208/250 triple slash adding up to a .458 OPS which is 9th "best" in the split.

Chourio at 242/242/400 has done a decent job fighting back all things considered, Yelich at 080/138/147...not so much.

On the pitching side the Brewers 624 plate appearances are also 5th most and they've gotten almost exactly average results with a 166/193/246 triple slash.

Clicking one more time for fun, it looks like Freddy Peralta has had 82 PA after an 0-2 count with a 105/160/105 triple slash so far this year.

Thank you, Sveum(always)rules.

[Ron750]

That seems to be a self fulfilling prophecy. Don’t try to improve hitting in your weak zones, just take strikes. That encourages other teams to exploit their weak spots. 
Thanks for explaining why I’m always yelling at the Gameday pitching indicator. I always wonder why they’re taking strikes and swinging at balls way outside.