Can the Brewers Use Their Starting Rotation Depth to Fleece A.J. Preller?

[Jake McKibbin]

Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images

ESPN recently wrote an article that covered some of the wilder trade deadline stories among current GM's, within which there was an unsurprising quote regarding Preller. 

Quote

"They were trying to fortify and they needed a catcher," [Jerry] Dipoto said. "We had Austin Nola, who was going bananas for us in that short season."

Nola was hitting .306 with a 151 OPS+ when A.J. Preller called Dipoto.

"We were in full rebuild mode but didn't have much interest in moving him, simply because it's a tough position to fill and he's a great makeup guy," Dipoto said.

But Preller wouldn't take no for an answer.

"He threw out a slew of names and said, 'We will overpay,'" Dipoto recalls. "A.J. is that way."

Preller is a known overpayer. He's an all-in guy who has made a slew of trades in recent years, including six of their top 12 prospects in 2024, and he's likely to do so again in 2025. Outside of their high-level international talents in Leo De Vries and Ethan Salas, almost anyone else is on the table.

What Would the San Diego Padres Want From the Milwaukee Brewers?
Preller's team doesn't have a lefthander in their active rotation or on the injured list. Kyle Hart is their only left-handed starter on the 40-man roster, and he's sitting in Triple A having thrown 29 1/3 innings to begin the season. Hw owns a 5.83 ERA and just 19 strikeouts.

Jose Quintana may fit their needs perfectly, as a proven starter with an ERA below 4.00 in every season since 2022. He's a proven performer in the postseason and a reliable arm, nibbling around the zone and taking advantage of poor swing decisions to occasionally go deep into ball games. Usually, he can be relied upon for a solid five innings of work every five days. He fits what the Padres need to a "T", as they struggle for depth in their rotation—even as Yu Darvish made his return from the injured list this week.

Now, the Padres like to trade for major-league players under control for more than one year, but they aren't averse to deviating from that principle. This is a team that traded their second-, fourth-, fifth- and 24th-ranked prospects for Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoenig at last year's trade deadline. Quintana may not have that back-end reliever, shutdown closer status, but arguably, he can provide comparable value in terms of WAR given the additional volume of innings he would cover.

The Trade Packages
The Brewers could really go only one way in terms of a return here, with the Padres system heavily favoring arms (and young arms, at that). They also do not have anyone that they could do a roster swap with who fits the Brewers' needs (though I'm sure Pat Murphy would love Luis Arraez), so any deal would likely be predicated on prospect capital. The Padres farm system is heavily based on potential, rather than proven results, after the top two in their system. That means that almost any but those top players could be on the table. One thing the Brewers may really enjoy is the plethora of high-upside teenage arms in the Padres farm, led by Kash Mayfield, Humberto Cruz and Boston Bateman.

Brewers Trade Jose Quintana (LHP) for Boston Bateman (RHP, A) and Bradgley Rodriguez (RHP, AA)
Boston Bateman is a high-stuff, fringy-command pitcher with an excellent fastball. Despite lower life on the pitch, he's been up to 98 mph with deceptive action and a low three-quarters release that also helps him generate good horizontal movement on his slider. Bateman has some development to go to polish his stuff and get the most out of it, but at 6-foot-7 and 245 pounds, his frame is mostly maxed out even at 19 years old. Bateman has 68 strikeouts and a 3.41 ERA at Low A in 60 2/3 innings pitched.

Bradgley Rodriguez is a filthy right-handed reliever with a devastating one-two punch between his fastball and changeup. With 34 strikeouts to seven walks in 27 2/3 innings at Double A in 2025, Rodriguez has been showcasing his potential wonderfully. In 2024, he managed to touch 101 mph with his fastball, while the changeup has dastardly tumbling action that led to a 58% whiff rate. He's working on a hard slider/cutter with some potential, too, to round out the arsenal—though he is expected to remain in a relief role.

Rodriguez may be a push in this deal, but his relief-only profile limits his value somewhat. Bateman is the headliner, with stuff that could land him in a major-league rotation one day (albeit a day a few years removed from this one). Quintana is unlikely to be enough to pry Cruz away from them, with San Diego having traded an over-slot fourth-rounder in 2023 just to get enough bonus pool money to sign Cruz in 2024. Mayfield, meanwhile, is more of a command merchant, with lower velocity on his fastball but a low arm slot and potential velocity gains to come that might make him a viable alternative to Bateman.

For two months of Quintana, this would certainly be a deal in favor of the Brewers, with long-term upside in both the rotation and the bullpen. Both prospects would likely fall into the 11-25 range in the Brewers system at present.

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What would you think of trading Quintana? Do you think the Brewers could get Preller to bite on even higher demands? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

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[rafa]

I'm not giving up Quintana for prospects, it would have to be for someone who comes in and plays right away.

Quintana is a proven vet, good arm that yes, is leaving in less than 3 months.  He has struggled at times with the 3rd time through the order but even with that, he's still at 3.44 era.

Last year, it was Quintana who held the Brewers scoreless in game 3 of the playoffs for 6 innings before the gut-wrenching loss.  For good measure, he stifled the Phillies in his next start in the next round,

Give me Eugenio Suarez from Arizona with AZ giving up a little cash. Otherwise, I'm not messing with a good thing, certainly not for prospects. I want my best team in September and hopefully October.

[wallus]

10 minutes ago, rafa said:

Give me Eugenio Suarez from Arizona with AZ giving up a little cash. Otherwise, I'm not messing with a good thing, certainly not for prospects. I want my best team in September and hopefully October.

Why in the world would Arizona do that deal?

[rafa]

Wallus, that's the point of my post.  Unless the Brewers get a steal, don't trade Quintana.  In truth, AZ could use some starting pitching since they lost Burnes but they CLEARLY would not do this trade straight up, it would obviously need more.

[brewmann04]

Think Jose or Nestor is gone 

[wallus]

1 hour ago, rafa said:

Wallus, that's the point of my post.  Unless the Brewers get a steal, don't trade Quintana.  In truth, AZ could use some starting pitching since they lost Burnes but they CLEARLY would not do this trade straight up, it would obviously need more.

If Arizona trades Suarez, they are selling and would have no use for Quintana

[jay87shot]

I am not against trading Q, someone between Q, Woody, and Cortes will need to go or move to the pen. Cortes won't get the starts to have much value and if Woody pitches like his first start we won't want to move him. Q is replaceable with Cortes, Patrick, Henderson, and Myers all capable of replacing him and providing depth.

I think your package for Q is a bit high even for an overpay but it is on the right track. 

[Frisbee Slider]

It is worth remembering that every major league team could’ve had Jose Quintana for essentially nothing during free agency. Quintana’s ERA says good starter. His FIP says he is teetering on being ineffective.

Quintana is essentially the same pitcher he has usually been this season. It’s hard to imagine getting much more than a lottery ticket.

Sometimes lottery tickets turn into Freddy Peralta.

[Jake McKibbin]

9 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

It is worth remembering that every major league team could’ve had Jose Quintana for essentially nothing during free agency. Quintana’s ERA says good starter. His FIP says he is teetering on being ineffective.

Quintana is essentially the same pitcher he has usually been this season. It’s hard to imagine getting much more than Freddy Peralta style lottery ticket.

At the start of the season, absolutely. However all metrics have their weaknesses and Quintana's profile is an outlier. His goal is to generate chase, and keep you just off balance enough that when you do, he'll miss barrels and get ground balls. He nibbles consistently and isn't concerned with walking hitters because of the ground ball threat. t has its limitations, but it also means his strengths aren't taken into account in his FIP with its model focusing on infield fly balls, strikeouts and home runs.

Also there is increased desperation at the halfway mark than at the start of the season. Injury lists pile up and teams who have no option but to compete in the playoffs due to their fanbase/spending will be desperate. The Yankees certainly fir this mould as well

[Frisbee Slider]

1 hour ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Also there is increased desperation at the halfway mark than at the start of the season.

Fair points. Quintana for one decent lottery ticket rather than two seems like fair value to me.

I’m not a GM, though 🙂

[Jake McKibbin]

7 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Fair points. Quintana for one decent lottery ticket rather than two seems like fair value to me.

I’m not a GM, though 🙂

Depending on the level, I'd agree. In some ways, its probably similar in value to the Carlos Santana trade for Jhonny Severino from the Pirates. Capable, dependable option to pencil in, but I do hope that Preller can be pushed to a more desperate return

[Matt]

Anyone on the staff with only this year remaining can go if they get a solid return. I'd take lottery tickets for Quintana. Doubt there's a market for Cortez. Woody is probably worth more to the Brewers than he would be to another team. 

Quintana has to go. His profile is that of a ticking time bomb.