Running 2026 MLB Draft Thread

[nate82]

10 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

6'1 270lb 1B who has a 115 wRC+ doesn't really feel like a guy who profiles as a late 1st value. For example Blake Burke in his draft year had a 147 wRC+. Sasaki also performed really poorly on the Cape last summer.

But a 4th-7th round pick?  I think he is closer to an early 2nd or late 1st than he is to a 4th-7th that I have seen floating around.  There have been players who played great in the cape and did nothing after being drafted.  The Brewers have drafted a few of those players in the past.  The Cape is a good barometer for players but in no way am I taking that as anything more than another data point.  He may have just slumped through the Cape that summer or just hit into bad luck.  

[wiguy94]

6 minutes ago, nate82 said:

But a 4th-7th round pick?  I think he is closer to an early 2nd or late 1st than he is to a 4th-7th that I have seen floating around.  There have been players who played great in the cape and did nothing after being drafted.  The Brewers have drafted a few of those players in the past.  The Cape is a good barometer for players but in no way am I taking that as anything more than another data point.  He may have just slumped through the Cape that summer or just hit into bad luck.  

What I've read on him, a 4th to 7th seems way more on point than where someone like Burke who was a significantly better college player went. Why do you think he should be picked where Burke did?

[nate82]

5 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Why do you think he should be picked where Burke did?

Power wise I think he is better than Burke it just hasn’t shown in game yet.  I also think he is a better hitter overall than Burke and he has more potential.  

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Power wise I think he is better than Burke it just hasn’t shown in game yet.  I also think he is a better hitter overall than Burke and he has more potential.  

Why do you think that?

[nate82]

He has massive power and has a similar approach as Prince had.  The weight is the biggest issue to me but he has the power and the hitting ability to be better than he has been in college.  I think he is closer to 80 power and will be a regular 30-40 HR hitter while still hitting I the .270’s and getting on base at a decent clip.

This is also only his second year in the US coming from Japan.  Sometimes it takes some time to adjust for these type of players going from one country to another.  
 

The bat speed is there and he is right around the K mark that Burke was at.  So it’s not like he is striking out more than Burke did.  The results are just not where his true talent level is.  

[wiguy94]

3 minutes ago, nate82 said:

He has massive power and has a similar approach as Prince had.  The weight is the biggest issue to me but he has the power and the hitting ability to be better than he has been in college.  I think he is closer to 80 power and will be a regular 30-40 HR hitter while still hitting I the .270’s and getting on base at a decent clip.

This is also only his second year in the US coming from Japan.  Sometimes it takes some time to adjust for these type of players going from one country to another.  
 

The bat speed is there and he is right around the K mark that Burke was at.  So it’s not like he is striking out more than Burke did.  The results are just not where his true talent level is.  

This is his third year in the US. He played in the draft league and Appy league in 2024. How do you know the bat speed is there? Do you have his bat speed numbers? Do you have his EV numbers? Maybe you're right. Could very well be. As someone who knows nothing about him though it doesn't feel like a very convincing argument. If he was flashing bat speed or EV of an 80 raw power guy, I think there would be a lot more draft hype on him even with his more solid to good than good to great production.

[nate82]

27 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

How do you know the bat speed is there?

From scouts that I have talked with.  Also he has a lot of high exit velocities.  He has a few close to 110.  Launch angle is usually around 30 degrees.  

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28 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

This is his third year in the US. He played in the draft league and Appy league in 2024.

I don’t count that as it’s not a full season of baseball.  I should have stated his second full year of playing baseball in the US. That was like 35 games so just a bit over a half of a season of college baseball.  

[wiguy94]

Just now, nate82 said:

From scouts that I have talked with.  Also he has a lot of high exit velocities.  He has a few close to 110.  Launch angle is usually around 30 degrees.  

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I don’t count that as it’s not a full season of baseball.  I should have stated his second full year of playing baseball in the US. That was like 35 games so just a bit over a half of a season of college baseball.  

110 EV with metal bats in college isn't close to 80 raw power though. Blake Burke's college max EV was 117 for reference.

[nate82]

12 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

110 EV with metal bats in college isn't close to 80 raw power though. Blake Burke's college max EV was 117 for reference.

107 in the summer league with a wooden bat.

https://www.mlb.com/video/rintaro-sasaki-s-430-foot-homer

[Spencer Michaelis]

On 4/24/2026 at 6:29 PM, wiguy94 said:

110 EV with metal bats in college isn't close to 80 raw power though. Blake Burke's college max EV was 117 for reference.

On 4/24/2026 at 6:42 PM, nate82 said:

107 in the summer league with a wooden bat.

https://www.mlb.com/video/rintaro-sasaki-s-430-foot-homer

Little late to the party, but yeah 107 with wood is nothing special. It's fine, but Eric Brown Jr was doing that in college. Luis Lara is the same age as Sasaki and he got up to 110 last year with wood, and he's 5'7.

That said, that's just a random output and I'm sure he's been higher than that at times with wood, and his EV's compare very favorably to the rest of college baseball this season, though I'm not sure what the exact numbers are. He's definitely made some legitimate strides though, and I know for sure that he has been up to at least 114 MPH this year. I think he's a fringy day one guy, but not sure he's one I'd be overly interested in the Brewers drafting at that point. Maybe a bit more intrigued if not for Burke's existence and so many other potential first base options in the upper levels right now.

Here is Burke's data from his final season FWIW. Much better bat-to-ball and a bit higher EV's, worse swing decisions.

[jay87shot]

All it takes is one team to think the power bat is worth it, he does have a near 1 to 1 bb/k ratio. I wouldn't take a guy that big that early. If I was a scout I would feel like I could find elite power with some other decent tool(s). I would probably say he is a 3rd round or later pick without watching much on him and going on profile alone.

[nate82]

The more I think about it I think Zion Rose is the pick at 25 if he is still there.  The only knock is his defense where he is only average in LF.  He is very athletic at 6'1" and 200lbs.  If he is there at 25 I think this is the pick for the Brewers.

 

[wiguy94]

6 hours ago, nate82 said:

The more I think about it I think Zion Rose is the pick at 25 if he is still there.  The only knock is his defense where he is only average in LF.  He is very athletic at 6'1" and 200lbs.  If he is there at 25 I think this is the pick for the Brewers.

 

Could Brewers pull a Dinges and move him back behind the plate at catcher or is that just a total no go?

[nate82]

33 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Could Brewers pull a Dinges and move him back behind the plate at catcher or is that just a total no go?

I don’t think he has the arm to play catcher.  1B or DH are also possibilities if LF doesn’t work out. Offensively he profiles well at any position really.