Cardinals at Brewers; Saturday, September 13 @ 7:15 p.m.: Jacob Misiorowski (4.09 ERA, 3.12 FIP) vs. Sonny Gray (4.45 ERA, 3.48 FIP)

[adambr2]

I refuse to believe that the moment Jake Bauers finally returned from IL being exactly when we started going from elite to mediocre is a coincidence. (Yes, I know he’s been playing well).

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Methinks Rhys is going to need more regular ABs over the next few weeks.

If I'm Murph, I am going to start Vaughn 3-4 times/wk and Hoskins the rest. Bauers can get an occasional start in the OF and take on the lefty PH/PR role he'll have in the playoffs. 

[ReverendBrewmeister]

6 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

I should probably know better than to wade into this, but we're losing 6-1, so what the heck.

1) I understand keeping half an eye on the Phillies. But is it really worth getting worked up over in any way? The difference between having home field all the way through to the WS and MAYBE having to play on the road slightly more often in the NLCS seems like a pretty big shrug to me.

2) The argument about the division is silly. Not because it's over. Not because it isn't. It's silly because human brains cannot process 1% outcomes with any degree of precision. 1% outcomes happen both all the time (think about, say, COVID hospitalization) and almost never. The odds of being dealt pocket aces are 1 in 221. The Cubs are at about twice that to win. It FEELS more likely than that to some, and others talk about it like it's impossible. It's neither. But until this is truly done and dusted people are going to worry about pocket aces. That's fine as long as they're not folding after every raise.

Right now, the fact is we're not playing very well. As for what that means, the answer is PROBABLY nothing. There could be some signal there, but we'll never see it without hindsight, and it might be pointing to something vanishingly small.

 

Concerning the #1 seed issue, I think the difference this year would potentially having home field advantage against Philadelphia for an NLCS might be significant. As expected, all of the NL playoff teams have better home records than road records. But the drop-off from home to away is much more pronounced for all the other NL contenders than for the Brewers, who have the best road record of all of them. That said, I'd much rather play a deciding game in American Family Field than Citizens Bank Park, which is a zoo in the playoffs.

Concerning the last bit, it might be nothing that the team hasn't been playing well recently. But it does conjure up a few 2021 vibes where the team sort of stumbled toward the regular season finish line and couldn't get it in gear for the NLDS against Atlanta. Still a few series left to avoid that, but it would be good to see more than just a couple sparks of a better finish.

[adambr2]

1 minute ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Methinks Rhys is going to need more regular ABs over the next few weeks.

If I'm Murph, I am going to start Vaughn 3-4 times/wk and Hoskins the rest. Bauers can get an occasional start in the OF and take on the lefty PH/PR role he'll have in the playoffs. 

Like I said, I know Bauers has been playing decently. But this isn’t a guy who is going to go on the kind of streak that Vaughn did and carry the offense for an extended period. 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

3 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I refuse to believe that the moment Jake Bauers finally returned from IL being exactly when we started going from elite to mediocre is a coincidence. (Yes, I know he’s been playing well).

When Bauers got hot and some joked that may seal his starting spot the rest of the year and into October that may have been prophetic.

I am not a Bauers hater, even though I seem to have a lot to say about the guy. He's fine. But, yeah, I'm with you. He gets a lot of playing time for a guy who's basically the definition of replacement level.

[willie key]

8 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I refuse to believe that the moment Jake Bauers finally returned from IL being exactly when we started going from elite to mediocre is a coincidence. (Yes, I know he’s been playing well).

It’s more like when Ortiz came back

[Bulldogboy]

2 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

When Bauers got hot and some joked that may seal his starting spot the rest of the year and into October that may have been prophetic.

I am not a Bauers hater, even though I seem to have a lot to say about the guy. He's fine. But, yeah, I'm with you. He gets a lot of playing time for a guy who's basically the definition of replacement level.

Which makes the Montesario situation all the more confusing since he actually played very well. I guess it's who you know. 

[adambr2]

I think we all assumed Mona had at least earned a few starts a week rotating at 2-3 positions when Ortiz came back. I’ve been really disappointed with Murphy’s process on that.

[adambr2]

I wish Chourio had shown the kind of discipline and patience he showed there when he was up earlier with the bases loaded. 

[adambr2]

Well, you’ve got the tying run at the plate with nobody out. You aren’t going to get a better (and probably another) shot at getting back in this in a hurry.

[ReverendBrewmeister]

Single and two walks loads them up for Contreras. Must have the big inning here in the 8th.

[adambr2]

If most sac flies was the criteria for winning baseball games, we’d be all set tonight.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Lol at Bauers hitting

[Bulldogboy]

Why Bauers? Where is Vaughn? Now can someone explain that?

[adambr2]

Just flat out stupid of Murphy not to go to Vaughn there. 

[ReverendBrewmeister]

Only got the smallest of crooked numbers after all that. Still a chance in the 9th. Gotta get the shutdown inning first.

[adambr2]

Just now, Bulldogboy said:

Why Bauers? Where is Vaughn?

Murphy is smitten with Bauers 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I mean, you have three 1B for exactly that reason.

I'm not going to get worked up over much. But, like, explain that to me, please. Every manager in the league PHs Vaughn there.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The meat of the order really sucked tonight in multiple big spots. 

[BruisedCrew]

Still no big hits.

Letting Bauers hit against a lefty instead of Vaughn against a righty is a head scratcher. 

[Bulldogboy]

8 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I wish Chourio had shown the kind of discipline and patience he showed there when he was up earlier with the bases loaded. 

Like i said early in games he blows off ab. Later he locks in. He needs to do it all day long

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Just now, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

I mean, you have three 1B for exactly that reason.

I'm not going to get worked up over much. But, like, explain that to me, please. Every manager in the league PHs Vaughn there.

Saving him for a sac fly in 13th inning. 

[adambr2]

Just now, OldSchoolSnapper said:

The meat of the order really sucked tonight in multiple big spots. 

The manager didn’t do them much favors on that last PA.

[adambr2]

1 minute ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

I mean, you have three 1B for exactly that reason.

I'm not going to get worked up over much. But, like, explain that to me, please. Every manager in the league PHs Vaughn there.

Did they have a righty up that they were going to if Vaughn came in? I mean, I’m trying to understand as well. 

[Bulldogboy]

I'm going with Murphy forgot he still had Vaughn available. Only explanation.