No, The Brewers' Payroll Is Not A Problem

[Frisbee Slider]

Image courtesy of © Curt Hogg / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Athletic recently cited unnamed "people briefed on (Milwaukee's) plans" that the Brewers are "fretting" over payroll. MLB Trade Rumors posted the story on Thanksgiving, too. As a result, national news outlets continue to advocate for Brewers' pitcher, Freddy Peralta, to be traded this offseason. 

It is no surprise when pundits openly wonder which veteran player a small-market team will trade next. Speculation is what makes baseball's offseason so much fun. At the same time, claims that the 2026 Brewers' payroll is a problem and that Milwaukee needs to trade Peralta this winter are both highly questionable. 

The Brewers' 2026 payroll is currently projected to be $136 million, according to FanGraphs. This would be an estimated $13 million increase over last season's final payroll numbers. However, Milwaukee's 2022 final payroll was $138 million. There is little evidence to believe the Brewers cannot support a payroll smaller than a few years ago, especially after an appearance in last season's National League Championship Series. 

If Milwaukee were worried about a $13 million payroll increase, it would not have extended a $22.025 million qualifying offer to Brandon Woodruff. The Brewers already have plenty of cost-controlled pitchers to fill next year's rotation. On the other hand, it was clear from the postseason that Milwaukee lacked an additional top-of-the-rotation starter who could be relied upon in October. Woodruff's contract is a calculated risk for 2026 to make the team better.

Brewers' principal owner, Mark Attanasio, and President of Baseball Operations, Matt Arnold, both told The Athletic in a November 18 article after signing Brandon Woodruff that Milwaukee is "excited about our rotation," and the future of Freddy Peralta was an "independent decision." A rotation of Peralta, Woodruff, Quinn Priester, and Jacob Misiorowski would be among the best in the National League. The Brewers could conceivably do nothing else for the remainder of the offseason and be favored to win a third consecutive Central Division title. 

All that to say, Milwaukee does not need to trade Freddy Peralta. For three consecutive years, Peralta has made 30 or more starts with 200 or more strikeouts. Eight million dollars cannot buy that level of performance, especially on a one-year commitment. Dollar for dollar, Peralta could be the most valuable veteran starting pitcher in the league, especially for a small-market team.

The best argument for trading Peralta is the promise of receiving multiple years of control from one or more prospects. It is worth noting that Milwaukee already has the best minor league system in the league, according to Baseball America's 2025 mid-season report. The Brewers' top three prospects are shortstops with Cooper Pratt and Jesus Made already appearing in Double-A last season. Jeferson Quero and Marco Dinges already have bright futures as catchers. The Brewers do lack high-end outfield talent, but Jackson Chourio and Sal Frelick are entrenched in Milwaukee for several years. 

A high-end pitching prospect with five or six years of team control would be worth considering. The prospect would need to be "can't miss" because the Brewers already have Misiorowski, Priester, Patrick, Henderson, Ashby, and Gasser for multiple years, too.

It is tempting to wonder about the unnamed sources that receive briefings on the Brewers' level of payroll comfort. Are the briefings in PowerPoint format, or are they simply conversations overheard at the water cooler? Do the briefings address the contradiction of expressing an urgent need to shed one-year financial commitments to add multi-year commitments, presumably in free agency?

It is absurd to suggest the Brewers need to trade Freddy Peralta to sign Isiah Kiner-Falefa or another platoon player. Matt Arnold did not win his second consecutive Executive of the Year award by fretting about payroll or doubting the organization's long-term plans.

Freddy Peralta understandably should be on every team's Christmas wish list. But what can a big market club offer a small market club that already has everything it needs to win 97 games and high-level prospects at most positions?    

View full article

[long ball]

I listened to Rosenthal on his podcast today and he basically contradicts what he wrote for the Athletic. 
 

He said he doesn’t expect them to trade Peralta. Then says he’s just speculating that they would trade someone to free up payroll flexibility because that’s what they always do. 

[Frisbee Slider]

3 hours ago, long ball said:

Then says he’s just speculating that they would trade someone to free up payroll flexibility because that’s what they always do. 

Flexibility for what reason and for whom? And why? 🤷‍♂️🙂

[BlazingGunz]

Every article I read citing that $136m payroll is including all of the buyouts from last years contracts including the Jansen buyout that the Rays picked up.  Remove the buyouts and payroll is less than they ended up in 2025 with.  These articles are just clickbait with nothing else to write about.  

[jay87shot]

I think with the 32 or 22 (depending on how you look at it) that alone is a big chunk or payroll weather it is a 125 or 135 budget. Especially when we have 7 or 8 capable starters. I do expect that the team sheds some payroll, however it doesn't need to be Freddy. That being said I do think if we get a good offer around what we got for Burnes it does make it a lot easier to trade Freddy.

[Brock Beauchamp]

18 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Flexibility for what reason and for whom? And why? 🤷‍♂️🙂

So they can go get IKF, just like you wrote! :D

[CheeseheadInQC]

I kind of wondered if some of the initial reports were “don’t expect more spending” but were interpreted as “Peralta’s getting dealt.”

[Frisbee Slider]

11 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

I kind of wondered if some of the initial reports were “don’t expect more spending” but were interpreted as “Peralta’s getting dealt.”

It seems likely that a main offseason narrative will be ‘who will win the Freddy Peralta sweepstakes?’ even if the Brewers are not active participants 

[Turning2]

16 hours ago, BlazingGunz said:

Every article I read citing that $136m payroll is including all of the buyouts from last years contracts including the Jansen buyout that the Rays picked up.  Remove the buyouts and payroll is less than they ended up in 2025 with.  These articles are just clickbait with nothing else to write about.  

Yep, offseason fluff. But it generates subject matter for second hand media like BF and countless other amateur sites and YouTube channels. I enjoy having something to read, even if  99% is just dudes who created their own outlets without any official MLB contacts to quote. It’s a cottage industry. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

42 minutes ago, Turning2 said:

it generates subject matter for second hand media like BF

You realize we literally had a guy in the press box 90+ times this year, right?

[Frisbee Slider]

19 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

You realize we literally had a guy in the press box 90+ times this year, right?

That’s more than Brian Anderson 🙂

[wallus]

45 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

You realize we literally had a guy in the press box 90+ times this year, right?

Yep, so disrespectful to Bfan. Your coverage of the team recently has been great, keep it up.

[BarremlensTSSC]

Tying the report to speculation about Peralta getting dealt certainly robs it of credibility.  I completely agree that the Brewers could certainly afford to open the year with their current payroll or even increase it... but I wouldn't be shocked at all if they found a way to reduce payroll prior to the start of the season.  Attanasio is, I'm sure, planning for the 2027 work stoppage.

[BarremlensTSSC]

4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

You realize we literally had a guy in the press box 90+ times this year, right?

This is just ONE of the reasons why I love it here.  You guys are awesome.

[eddiemathews]

And if they want, the Brewers can rework Big Woo's deal to extend him to, say, three years at say $45mm total and put this year's deal at a lower rate. If he'd agree to it, anyhoo.