Despite a Strong Rookie Season, Isaac Collins is a Question Mark in Brewers Outfield

[Jack Stern]

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

For most of this season, Isaac Collins was a bona fide contender for National League Rookie of the Year. Through August, the 28-year-old hit .274/.371/.425 (126 wRC+) and tied Drake Baldwin for the most fWAR (2.5) among NL rookies.

Yet, by the time October rolled around, Collins had been effectively relegated to a bench role. He received just 58 plate appearances in September, his fewest in a month since April, and started just one of Milwaukee’s nine playoff games.

That was partially due to the emergence of Jake Bauers, who posted an OPS north of 1.000 in September and whose bat has always carried more upside. However, Collins’s production waned during that same stretch, as he hit just .191/.345/.319 (97 wRC+) during the regular season’s final month. He only reached base once via a walk in 10 postseason plate appearances.

After the Brewers’ season ended, Pat Murphy reinforced that they saw what Collins is capable of, but would not commit to giving him a significant enough role in 2026 for him to bounce back closer to that form.

“You have to get that opportunity,” Murphy said. “The key for him is going to be, does he get the opportunity to do that? If he does, I think he’ll be even better because he’s a student of the game and he’s aware of what makes him good.”

Collins is a microcosm of Milwaukee’s 2026 outfield picture. It’s a deep group of athletes with the tools to be regulars but uncertain outlooks. Sal Frelick and Jackson Chourio are locked into starting roles; flanking them on the depth chart are Collins, Bauers, Garrett Mitchell, Blake Perkins, Tyler Black, Brandon Lockridge, and Steward Berroa, each of whom comes with questions.

The concern surrounding Collins is the legitimacy of his breakout performance. His excellent plate discipline and swing decisions are no fluke, but his hitting ability looks less reliable. While Collins’s 122 wRC+ and .344 wOBA were third among NL rookies with at least 350 plate appearances, his 99 DRC+ and .319 xwOBA suggest he performed more like a competent hitter with batted ball luck on his side than a truly good one. His future production largely hinges on repeating a 20.4% pull air rate that helped him post better power numbers than his quality of contact would typically yield.

His actual level of talent in the field is also uncertain. Collins looked like a Gold Glove candidate for much of the year, accruing a Fielding Run Value of 5 through July by using his instincts as a former infielder to get great jumps in left field. Across August and September, though, he limped to a -5 Fielding Run Value as poor routes became more detrimental to his defensive efficiency down the stretch.

If Collins projects as an on-base specialist with little pop who plays unremarkable corner outfield defense, it should force the Brewers to reconfigure their outfield. Internal shuffling could mean more starts for Bauers and Mitchell, but there’s an argument to be made that the club would benefit from bringing in a right-handed outfield bat to offer more stable offense than Lockridge or the switch-hitting Berroa.

Collins has three minor-league option years remaining, so the Brewers could send him to Triple-A should they decide there is no suitable role for him on the 26-man roster. It may not come to that – even if his 2025 proves mostly a fluke, he could still be useful off the bench – but they should be keeping their options open in the outfield.

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[izzi]

Poor Isaac. After he came back from that paternity leave he wasn't the same player. Maybe the distractions of fatherhood affected him. Maybe by next season he'll be more situated in his family life and will get back to being what he was before September.

 That said, I thought this article was a little harsh. Lies, damn lies, and statistics as Samuel Clemons said. Collins was clutch. I have yet to see a stat for that.

[sveumrules]

53 minutes ago, izzi said:

Collins was clutch. I have yet to see a stat for that.

There are a couple different methods out there for attempting to capture the ever elusive "clutch-ness" of a player.

One is just straight Win Probability Added, where Isaac came in at +0.97 WPA good enough for fifth on the team behind Contreras (+2.34), Turang (+1.14), Durbin (+1.10), and Chourio (+1.02). Vaughn (+0.92) was just behind Collins before a small drop off to Yelich (+0.65), Frelick (+0.51), Hoskins (+0.41), and Bauers (+0.23) rounding out the Top Ten.

FanGraphs also has a measure on that same linked leaderboard they label Clutch, which more or less compares how a player performs in high leverage situations versus low and medium leverage situations. For this stat the baseline is not zeroed out to the league as a whole, but rather to each individual player's own performance.

For instance, Joey Ortiz was turrrible this year at the plate (67 wRC+) so he came out at -1.03 WPA. But his high leverage plate appearances (101 wRC+), were much better than his low leverage (54 wRC+) and medium leverage (77 wRC+) ones so his 0.62 Clutch was second on the team behind only Contreras with a 0.81 Clutch. 

By that measure Collins came in at 0.27 Clutch grouped together in a range from fourth to eighth on the team with Mitchell (0.33), Hoskins (0.31), Vaughn (0.25), and Chourio (0.20).

Collins did really well in high leverage PA with a 142 wRC+ that was only behind Chourio (156 wRC+) among Brewers with regular PA, but Isaac also did decent in low leverage (118 wRC+) and medium leverage (122 wRC+) so that hurts his Clutch score somewhat by that methodology.

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, izzi said:

Poor Isaac. After he came back from that paternity leave he wasn't the same player. Maybe the distractions of fatherhood affected him. Maybe by next season he'll be more situated in his family life and will get back to being what he was before September.

 That said, I thought this article was a little harsh. Lies, damn lies, and statistics as Samuel Clemons said. Collins was clutch. I have yet to see a stat for that.

Well,... we're kinda at a crossroads here, then, aren't we?

If statistics are the same as lies and damn lies, then... why would you want to see a stat that disabused you of your preconcieved notions?

But, being as you said you haven't seen a stat that says he was clutch, let me provide a simple, more dumbed down version than Svuem;

2 out RISP-Pretty clutch when you have men on 2nd and 3rd and there are 2 down and ONLY a hit scores a run(or WP, but... you know what I'm saying). 

.349

.404

.535

.939

So he hit ~350 there, 400+ OBP(keeping the inning going) and he hit for quite a bit of power. 

High leverage spots. ~100 PAs

.325

.421

.475

.896

Or just good old fashion RISP

.295

.369

.474

.843

 

That's pretty clutch. Not sure what you'd want more than that... but he came up with big hits in big spots regularly for us. 

[biedergb]

Obviously to be elite you need about 6-7 solid hitters, and 3-4 front end starters.  But just behind that is the 2025 Brewers of incredible depth, 7-8 capable OFs for injury, slumps etc. Collins is part of that and like break out prospect the year before in Myers, he will play a role this year. The question is he truly a late bloomer and demand a starting spot with improved production, or will he be a reliable position player with options who will help cover innings and at bats.

I harbor no doubt that Isaac will play a key role in this upcoming season, just as a fill in or bench bat, or a regular OF starter in a crowded lineup.  Still nice to have several MLB ready OF options.  And the focus on him (or Mitchell, or Perkins or Lochridge) is much less if Chourio and Frelick build on their last 2 seasons and Yeli remains a reliable hitter at DH/LF.

Depth is the team/franchise MO the past few years - in the minors and in the bigs too

[BrewerFan]

This is just routine off-season banter. Yes, there are questions about Collins ability to be a starting LFer. We also have alternative answers in the event that he's not.

We'll likely start with Chourio, Mitchell, Frelick and then Collins, Perkins and Bauers as backups. 

AAA I would think Luke Adams would get games in LF(maybe RF as he's got a very good arm). He's probably a future 1B, but... likely not 3B with the players we have coming up. 

Tyler Black... I know how quickly we like to give up on players, but if something should happen to Bauers, Black doesn't replace him perfectly, but he brings exceptional plate discipline and athleticism to the team. 
Lara is an elite Glove in CF who can steal bases and doesn't strike out. He also walks at a healthy rate. 

Brandon Lockridge... not at all a fan, but I like to be proven wrong in those types of scenarios. 

 

Collins was good last year. He got fewer chances down the stretch in deference of Bauers who... as you pointed out, was hot and as the Brewers went for more defense with a healthy Perkins. 

 

Any questions about Collins really have to be asked about Durbin. He does not have great bat speed, but he's also a grinder. I have faith in both of them holding their positions until younger more dynamic prospects come along. 

[Brian]

Even Ted Williams has a bad season where he hit only .254  LOL.

https://www.mlb.com/player/ted-williams-124341

 

[Michael Trzinski]

On 12/7/2025 at 8:20 AM, izzi said:

Poor Isaac. After he came back from that paternity leave he wasn't the same player. Maybe the distractions of fatherhood affected him. Maybe by next season he'll be more situated in his family life and will get back to being what he was before September.

 That said, I thought this article was a little harsh. Lies, damn lies, and statistics as Samuel Clemons said. Collins was clutch. I have yet to see a stat for that.

Samuel Langhorne Clemens to you, sir! 🥸

[BrewCrew156]

Recently, I've been reminiscing about his walk-off home run against the Mets. Truly a sensational moment. I hope he can come back strong and prove he wasn't just a one-season wonder.